The term “trend” now has a broader use. Trending is a term used in reference to the buildup of posts on social media. And we find ourselves in a day and age when the leader of the free world is posting using stream of consciousness—annoyingly against a department store that no longer supports his daughter’s line of clothing or worse, tweeting against judges who disagree with his policies. This is a trend we shouldn’t miss.
Money, Money Everywhere, Not an Asset to Buy
During the next two decades, an estimated 76 million baby boomers – the bulge of the Western population born between 1946 and 1964 – will begin the process of going from growing and accumulating earnings to retiring and distributing their wealth.
K2 Advisors : Why We Like Activist Hedge Strategies
Given the unpredictability of today’s financial markets, many investors are looking to reduce the impact of market volatility on their portfolios. Hedge-fund strategies—a type of alternative investment strategy—may help by potentially offering additional diversification, new sources of return and reduced risk.
When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance
As Benjamin Graham observed decades ago, "Speculators often prosper through ignorance; it is a cliche that in a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap. But the typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss."
Cash-Out Refinancing During Bubble Years Will Lead to Disaster
Nearly all analysts who write about the housing bubble have focused on the purchasing madness that occurred. While this is important, it overlooks the refinancing insanity of 2004-2007. This refinancing lunacy will devastate mortgage and housing markets for years to come.
Gold Gets a Shot in the Arm from Inflation and China
Inflation just got another jolt, rising as much as 2.5 percent year-over-year in January, the highest such rate since March 2012. Led by higher gasoline, rent and health care costs, consumer prices have now advanced for the sixth straight month. In addition, January is the second straight month for rates to be above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
Weekly Market Summary
US equities continue to make new all-time highs each week, supported by strong equity fund inflows and macro data that has exceeded expectations. Surprisingly, equities outside the US are actually outperforming the S&P. The current trend is very extended and there are four notable headwinds that may impact equities in the weeks ahead. There is, conversely, a favorable set up in the bond market.
Big Winners in the Neglected Frontier Universe
Frontier markets were mixed in 2016, with most of the Middle East and Africa lagging the rest of the universe and a few markets surging ahead 30-40% on the year.
Forecasting Factor and Smart Beta Returns (Hint: History Is Worse than Useless)
In a series of articles we published in 2016, we show that relative valuations predict subsequent returns for both factors and smart beta strategies in exactly the same way price matters in stock selection and asset allocation.
Sales and Earnings Back At Highs, But So Are Valuations
In the past year, S&P profits have grown 46% yoy. Sales are 4.5% higher. By some measures, profit margins are back at their prior highs. This is a remarkable turnaround from a year ago, when profits had declined by 15% and most investors interpreted this as a sure sign that a recession and a new bear market were underway.
Better Days: Earnings Growth Picks Up Sharply in 2017
Much ink spilled these days—including by yours truly—tends to be of the macro variety. This is for good reason as studies have shown that macro forces have been greater determinants of asset class performance than traditional underlying fundamentals.
Staying Even-Keeled in Equity Market Crosswinds
Stable stocks are out. Riskier reflation plays are in. But who knows which way fickle market winds will blow tomorrow? That’s why strategies that harness stability and good judgement never go out of style.
The Latest News in Alternative Investing – Finding Pockets of Opportunity
With a diversified portfolio, alternative investments can complement more conservative investments and produce higher returns. This week’s news focuses on pockets of opportunities, such as in multi-asset absolute-return funds, smaller hedge funds and real estate.
Due to structural differences, some closed-end funds may have longer durations than their open-end fund peers, says Alaina Bompeidi of Morningstar.
Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, Part Two
We will look more closely at the rest of the tax proposals. Then next week we will go much deeper into the BAT and then into what I think the tax system should actually look like, which will be far different from anything I’ve suggested in the past. That discussion will make more sense if we have placed the ideas in full context.