There’s an ongoing narrative about the energy industry that says exploration and production (E&P) companies are making money in unconventional shale plays, even with oil selling for only $50 a barrel. This is touted as a positive trend. But a deeper dive into energy company fundamentals suggests a vastly different story — one that prioritizes production volume over economic value.

“There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV. I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them. The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think. Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.

China put a halt to new ICOs and crypto transactions. In response, ethereum tumbled as much as 15.8 percent on Monday, or $55 a unit. Bitcoin lost $394 a unit.

The potential failure to raise the debt ceiling has never been the problem. It's the debt that's the problem, and the ceiling is a tool to solve the problem that vote-seeking politicians are afraid to actually use.

Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through July. The latest debt level is up 2.0% month-over-month. The July data gives us an additional sense of recent investor behavior.

Current extremes present what I view as one of the three most important opportunities in history to defend capital. My sense is that many investors will squander this opportunity until yet another bubble implodes.

The car is loaded with clean clothes and dog food. I’m heading out mid-morning to help load a support truck headed for Houston. Thankfully, my kid’s school has organized the donation drive. It has been heartwarming to watch the countless random acts of kindness in the wake of the current challenges. Much more will be needed in the days ahead.

Instead of delving deep into one subject, I’ll give you my quick thoughts on several different items. They aren’t connected to each other, nor do they build up to any sort of conclusion. They’re just what is on my mind as we wrap up summer 2017.

This morning's employment report for August showed a 156K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%. June and July nonfarm payrolls were revised for a total loss of 41K.

The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As we publish this month’s Commentary, Hurricane / Tropical Storm Harvey continues to pummel Houston and the surrounding areas. The flooding is intense, the damage will be massive, and there will be tremendous human and economic suffering as the rains subside and the waters all-too-slowly recede.

That is a pretty bold statement to make considering that every one of her predecessors failed to predict the negative consequences of their actions. Will there will be another “Financial Crisis” in our lifetimes? Yes, it is virtually guaranteed.

This week the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is hosting its annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a number of Fed officials have commented on “inflation.” Why is targeting inflation so important? Because rising inflationary pressures will cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and such periods tend to prove challenging for the stock and bond markets.

Today we’ll look at reasons to be bullish on the equity markets, but I’ll also teach you a thing or two about trading.

The second and final part of my exclusive interview with distinguished financial writer Alex Green of the Oxford Club and Investment U.

This will be the first in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.

In some states, when a couple enters into divorce, the court may award “alimony,” or spousal support, to one of the former spouses for the express purpose of limiting any unfair economic effects by providing a continuing income to the spouse. The purpose is to help that spouse continue the “standard of living” they had during the marriage.

My thinking is impatient and mostly critical as I sift through research each week. I’m sure my “get to the point” personality frustrates my co-workers and I’m sure at times my beautiful wife. It’s a personality flaw, I know; but hey, I’m just not sure any amount of therapy can help.

When talking with potential investors, a refrain we often hear is, “I was burned by bank loans before, and now I’m not sure if I should buy them again.” Is this fear unique to the bank loan asset class?

Pharmaceutical costs represent about 10% of total U.S. health care expenditures, or about $325 billion each year.

Since the infamous “dot com” meltdown nearly two decades ago, people have tended to question any sort of extended run-up in technology-sector stocks.

The only constant is change — and the global market is certainly proof of that. As we assess our outlook for the rest of the year, we see several potential changes that could impact international small- and all-cap funds. Here are the five trends we anticipate having the biggest effect — and the ways the Invesco International and Global Growth team is poised to respond.

Atop the “what matters most” list is debt. Specifically, global sovereign debt: U.S., Europe, Japan and China. We are at the end of a long-term debt cycle. Borrow, spend and grow is good for the economy. Credit is money. It is a multiplier that enables you to spend more than you have.

Outcomes from the most recent state budget season, which concluded for most U.S. states on 30 June, underscore the need for caution among municipal bond investors.

Submission focuses on pension consultants nationwide who discount the importance of utilizing physical gold as even a fraction of their portfolios. With the staggering amount of pension shortfalls occurring now and well into the future, how might true diversification save the hard earned retirement dollars of so many American workers?

Imagine an asset class with a decently positive expected rate of return, little to no equity beta, and little to no interest rate duration. A unicorn? We think not.

The devastating crisis in 2008 provided clear evidence that mainstream macroeconomic models ignored risks associated with debt and the financial cycle and were rendered moot when the crisis hit. In recognizing these endogenous risks, an investment framework should integrate financial cycle and macroeconomic risk.

According to Richard Bookstaber, a financial risk manager is like a fire marshal. The problem, in a nightclub fire, is that people can’t get out fast enough because the exits aren’t big enough; they don’t have the time to get out because the fire is spreading too quickly; and there are too many of them.

Howard Marks’ “Memos” are a must-read. Years ago, I was invested in Marks’ hedge fund. We exited our fund of funds business in 2007, though it would have served me well to have stayed in his fund. Like most great investment managers, he keeps risk front of mind.