ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI at 5.5% YoY
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.6, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.52%, down from 5.53% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, down from the previous week.
The Fundamental Case for Japanese Stocks
We’ve been arguing for the last year that US-based investors would be well served to overweight foreign versus domestic equities. In this post we’ll dig into that topic a little deeper to try to convey a few of the company specific fundamental drivers of our foreign vs domestic call, especially as they relate to one of our favorite markets: Japan.
Benefiting From Flexibility: Opportunities in Multi‑Sector Credit
As many traditional credit sectors begin to approach full valuations, credit investors may want to look in new directions for attractive returns with manageable downside risk. In diversified credit portfolios today, de-risking and building liquidity are important, but we also see attractive relative value opportunities in a couple of (sometimes overlooked) sectors.
The Importance of Implementation Efficiency
In the second of a three-part series on principles of the low-return imperative, we zero in on the value of efficient implementation—and identify three ways it may help achieve desired outcomes.
On My Radar: Global Macro Outlook & Probable 7-, 10- and 12-Year Equity Market Returns
This week’s On My Radar is an investment outlook piece. While current trend evidence remains bullish, you’ll see valuation data below that tells us the coming 7-, 10- and 12-year equity market returns are not so good. Your and my clients are expecting 10% forward returns; however, due to extremely high valuations they are likely get 0% to 2%. Trouble spots? There are many.
Industry professionals say interest rates and leverage costs are important factors to consider when assessing the risk level of a closed-end fund.
Munis in Focus: Adjusting the Sails
How we’re positioning muni portfolios for turbulence – and the opportunities it may create.
A Story of Risk Management, and Flying to the Moon
Risk management is a key part of many endeavors, from space travel to investment management. In either case, achieving one's goals requires awareness of what could go wrong, as well as careful attention to details in often-changing conditions to ensure the smoothest possible journey
The Distribution of Pain
When you write about economics, you learn very quickly that the economy doesn’t care what you say about it. The forces that drive it are beyond any one person’s comprehension, much less control. But at the same time, the economy doesn’t work like a law of nature. Unlike gravity, for instance, the economy responds to human choices and preferences. We influence it, even if we don’t understand exactly how.
Addressing the Non‑Performing Loan Problem in Europe
Creative solutions may be needed to address remaining asset quality issues in Europe’s banks.
De-FANGed: 5 Ways the Disrupters Could Be Disrupted
Investors have profited handsomely from FANG stocks and their Big Tech brethren, but Western regulators are responding to growing concerns about their behaviour. Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says these masters of high-tech disruption may soon find themselves competing on a more regulated – and more level – playing field.
From Trust to Loyalty – Five Ways to Deepen Client Relationships
To build lasting trust, it needs to be earned. Our survey of wealthy investors identified five steps advisors should take to strengthen client relationships.
Preparing for a Possible Post-LIBOR World
Even though they may not know it, many global consumers have at least one loan tied to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Yet, LIBOR’s regulator is calling for an end to the rate by the end of 2021.
Today’s Financial Euphoria
All major financial euphoria episodes hold aspects in common. Among our favorite books on investing is John Kenneth Galbraith’s A Short History of Financial Euphoria. More than any other economist, we admire his understanding of the connection between the securities markets and the economy.