US Tech Sector: Continued Run-Up or Correction Coming?
Since the infamous “dot com” meltdown nearly two decades ago, people have tended to question any sort of extended run-up in technology-sector stocks.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Womenomics Falls Short for Japan"
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.5, up slightly from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.63%, unchanged from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.5, down from the previous week.
Five Trends That Could Impact Global Small Caps
The only constant is change — and the global market is certainly proof of that. As we assess our outlook for the rest of the year, we see several potential changes that could impact international small- and all-cap funds. Here are the five trends we anticipate having the biggest effect — and the ways the Invesco International and Global Growth team is poised to respond.
On My Radar: The Fed is “Focused on the Obvious and Unimportant”
Atop the “what matters most” list is debt. Specifically, global sovereign debt: U.S., Europe, Japan and China. We are at the end of a long-term debt cycle. Borrow, spend and grow is good for the economy. Credit is money. It is a multiplier that enables you to spend more than you have.
A Troubled U.S. State Budget Process Puts Muni Investors on Alert
Outcomes from the most recent state budget season, which concluded for most U.S. states on 30 June, underscore the need for caution among municipal bond investors.
Madoff’s Scheme Was Transparent yet Ignored. Get Ready for Round 2
Submission focuses on pension consultants nationwide who discount the importance of utilizing physical gold as even a fraction of their portfolios. With the staggering amount of pension shortfalls occurring now and well into the future, how might true diversification save the hard earned retirement dollars of so many American workers?
Merger Arb and Unicorns
Imagine an asset class with a decently positive expected rate of return, little to no equity beta, and little to no interest rate duration. A unicorn? We think not.
On Value in the Emerging Markets
This paper seeks to understand if a value investing approach could be viable in emerging markets and identifies the specific drivers of value in these markets.
Macro Models and Black Swan Risk: Financial Market Conundrum
The devastating crisis in 2008 provided clear evidence that mainstream macroeconomic models ignored risks associated with debt and the financial cycle and were rendered moot when the crisis hit. In recognizing these endogenous risks, an investment framework should integrate financial cycle and macroeconomic risk.
Fire Marshal in a Nightclub: Richard Bookstaber Explains Financial Risk Management
According to Richard Bookstaber, a financial risk manager is like a fire marshal. The problem, in a nightclub fire, is that people can’t get out fast enough because the exits aren’t big enough; they don’t have the time to get out because the fire is spreading too quickly; and there are too many of them.
On My Radar: Valuations and What They Tell Us About Coming 7- and 10-Year Returns
Howard Marks’ “Memos” are a must-read. Years ago, I was invested in Marks’ hedge fund. We exited our fund of funds business in 2007, though it would have served me well to have stayed in his fund. Like most great investment managers, he keeps risk front of mind.
Estimating Market Losses at a Speculative Extreme
In my view (supported by a century of market cycles), investors are vastly underestimating the prospects for market losses over the completion of this cycle, are overestimating the availability of “safe” stocks or sectors that might avoid the damage, and are overestimating both the likelihood and the need for some recognizable “catalyst” to emerge before severe market losses unfold.
How Ireland's Economy Rebounded After the Financial Crisis
Prior to the global financial crisis (GFC), Ireland’s economy was a stellar performer, earning the country the moniker of “Celtic tiger.” The onset of the GFC caused a major economic contraction and a housing crash — but today, Ireland is once again the fastest-growing economy in the eurozone. In this blog, I examine the key elements that allowed Ireland to regain its footing.
Storm Advisory—What You Need to Know Now
In July, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index fell to an 11-month low of 53.9, 3.5 points below its June reading of 57.4. The index measures the non-manufacturing, services industries such as food services, education, real estate, health care and more.