The following is adapted from a recent speech given by Steven Romick

The pace of job growth has slowed, but it’s likely not because the economy is weakening. It may even be because the economy is strengthening.

While it is true that each asset class is always part of a relative comparison, the overall valuation in any asset reflects inflation expectations. Moreover, the long-term relationship between stocks and bonds is positive. Viewed in this way, we should not be surprised by Friday’s trading, or by similar reactions.

There is no question that Asians are following the political developments in the United States closely, because America is a critical factor in the economies of the region. I was asked almost everywhere whether Trump would be impeached and I told questioners it was unlikely.

Given the media's obsession with some of the President Trump's communication challenges, it was utterly predictable that the President's declaration that his trip to Europe and the Middle East should be considered a "home run" was met almost universally with ridicule. In truth, the President actually did accomplish a series of victories overseas, or at least laid important groundwork that should help advance American interests in ways that prior Administrations have failed to do.

Seniors and their families approach this milestone with a mix of pride and trepidation. Pride arises from the achievement of heightened status within the community of educated women and men. But there is trepidation about what lies ahead at the next level.

In the era after the Financial Crisis, pundits, investment commentators, and the media falsely maintained a constant proclamation that interest rates were just about to rise and that the collapse of the bond market was imminent. When the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) first lowered interest rates to 0%, the pundits proclaimed irresponsibility and that inflation would skyrocket.

This morning's employment report for May showed a 138K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, disappointing forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked downward from 4.4% to 4.3%. The Investing.com consensus was for 185K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. March and April nonfarm payrolls were revised for a total loss of 66K.

One might say that the most trusted investment advisors have cats’ proverbial nine lives. They are bold explorers, distinguished by their agility and uncommon ability to take on challenges with confidence and poise. And, of course, they always land on their feet. FlexShares presents 9 secular trends we believe are reshaping the investment management industry – and how trusted advisors may leverage these trends to their – and their clients’ – benefit.

Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is up 2.3% month-over-month. The current level is at another record high. The April data gives us an additional sense of investor behavior since the start of the new administration.

With the probability of recession sometime in the next five years around 70% in our view, now may be a critical time to prepare for when the cyclical tailwind that began last year begins to fade. Over the next five years, the global economy may undergo five significant pivots in the direction and scope of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. Are investors too optimistic about the future economy? We address this and other crucial questions in PIMCO’s 2017 Secular Outlook – our long-term view for the global economy and markets. 

We thought it would be very helpful to review Warren Buffett’s argument in 19991, the last time there was very high expectations attached to technology stocks and to the overall level of common stock prices. We will reference Buffett’s quotes by the year he said them. The sections labeled 2017 offer our current observations on the markets and thoughts from respected experts.

Investors interested in long/short equity mutual funds would be well advised to consider more than their much-more competitive fees vs. private hedge fund peers. To genuinely hedge the long components of a portfolio, look for lower net long exposures in a long/short equity allocation, and added value on the short side even in rising equity markets.

Investors generally regard municipal bonds as one of the safest investments – only Treasury bonds are less risky. But many of those bonds carry hidden risks. A proposed new SEC rule change will go a long way toward making investors aware of those risks.

It’s precisely the failure of valuations to matter over shorter segments of the market cycle that regularly convinces investors that valuations don’t matter at all

It’s been a whirlwind week. After attending two big conferences, I landed in Vancouver today where I’ll be presenting at the International Metal Writers Conference. Markets continue to close at record highs, even as political uncertainty remains and the threat of terrorism looms large over Western nations. On Monday, gold flashed a bullish signal we haven’t seen in over a year. There’s much to talk about! Below are five things you need to know from the week now behind us.

The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Is it time to add convertible bonds?

In its recent quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England gave the market some fascinating insights into the challenges it will face in setting appropriate monetary policy over the coming years.

Speaking two weeks after his 88th birthday, Jack Bogle called the fiduciary rule “silly” and said that financial advisors’ fees are heading lower. Indeed, he said, advisors are destined to charge hourly or retainer fees, like lawyers and accountants.

When evaluating investment strategies it’s critical to understand the nature of the leverage being used.

My friend Mark Hulbert once had a philosophy professor at Oxford, who distinguished two ways of being wrong: “You can be just plain wrong, or you can be wrong in an interesting way.” In the latter case, Mark explained, correcting the wrong reveals a lot about the underlying truth.

Europe is back on the map. That was one of the main takeaways this week from the SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) hedge fund conference in Las Vegas, where $3 trillion in assets was represented. Speaker after speaker touted European equities for their attractive valuations and as a means to diversify away from the volatile American market in light of rising U.S. geopolitical risk. France’s election of centrist Emmanuel Macron over far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen this month has especially eased investors’ fears that antiestablishment forces would challenge the integrity of the European Union (EU).

On the surface, China continues to outperform expectations. It has sustained a high rate of economic growth for longer than most other developing countries.

When looking to help diversify a multi-asset portfolio, one of our experts presents the case for when and why an investor might consider senior loans.

In this Q&A, Kathleen Gaffney and Henry Peabody share their outlooks for the bond market and the impact of stronger global growth, and how they seek to position the Multisector Income strategy.

Invesco Fixed Income shares its views of rates around the world.

China’s GDP rose 6.9% in the first quarter, but is a slowdown coming? Emerging Markets have been on fire this year, will the rally continue? U.S. GDP is forecast to grow to 3.5% in the second, but could the delay in tax cuts dampen the rebound?

We have a very quiet week for economic reports. The housing data are quite important, but it will be a Tuesday story without legs. The White House drama will be compelling for the media. Whether investors like the idea or not, we should expect another week of news that is mostly political.

As you can see in the chart below, based on data provided by Moore Research Center, the five-year pattern, represented by the orange line, is diverging from the longer-term trends. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time.