Overbought or Oversold? Let These Mathematical Signals Be Your Guide
Anticipate before you participate in the market. This is a classic piece of advice I like to give investors and have written about extensively in my CEO blog, Frank Talk. Financial markets are influenced by relatively predictable cycles and trading patterns, and by better understanding these we are able to react thoughtfully to headline noise or unexpected market developments.
In the second quarter volatility waned and performance decoupled as divergent backdrops created variances in returns for assets classes and markets across the globe. The winning trades for the second quarter were in the U.S. energy sector, U.S. small companies, and a select group of technology and consumer discretionary stocks.
The Dangers of Inward Thinking
There are a number of changes taking place in the investment environment and they are likely to have an influence on the returns on financial assets for some time to come. When the world’s leading economy, with more than a fifth of global GDP, does not participate in major alliances dealing with matters of security and the environment, this has longer-term investment implications.
Don't Overlook Quality in Small-Cap Investing
The conventional wisdom is that risk-adjusted, overall portfolio returns are enhanced by combining exposure to a U.S. small-cap equity benchmark, like the Russell 2000 Index, with large-cap stocks. However, we find this belief is simply not supported by the data.
Does Focusing on New Sales Have to Hurt Existing Clients?
I have been very successful establishing high-value relationships and keeping clients happy. But lately our management has been focused on new sales. How can we strike an appropriate balance between driving new revenue and maintaining our existing relationships?
The Hidden Risk in a Portfolio: Crowded Trades
Crowded trade risks, while often unappreciated by investors, can be real and significant. They can be viewed as a byproduct of the immense proliferation of index and index-like products. While these products meet important investor needs, their predominance has led to market conditions that can greatly intensify selloffs-and could expose equity managers to greater than expected losses in the event of a market downturn.
Five Risks That Could Affect Fixed Income Markets
Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy — we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long.
What You Get if you Cross Buffett, Branson and Jobs
Jobs, Branson, Buffett – it is rare for somebody to embody strengths of each of these business giants. Masayoshi Son, the Korean-Japanese, University of California, Berkeley-educated founder of one of Japan’s most successful companies, SoftBank Group, is a candidate.
The Debt Train Will Crash
There’s going to be a train wreck here. Which train will go off which track is unclear, but something will. And we’re all going to feel it.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 148.5, up 1.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.41%, down from 3.57% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 1.5, also down from the previous week.
The Size Effect is Not Dead
How a fund defines its universe of small stocks eligible for purchase will make a significant difference in performance.
Bonds Minus Duration: A Train Wreck in the Making?
A bond allocation is like a railroad. Credit is the locomotive that generates high returns, duration the track that keeps the train in line. Take the track away and you risk running your portfolio into the ditch. That’s why duration-hedged credit strategies are dangerous.
All Asset All Access, July 2018
In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning for a potential inflation shock and offers insight into its collaboration with PIMCO to bring forth innovative solutions for investors.
Why Should Investors Consider Alternatives?
Alternative investments (alts) were first embraced by institutions, and some people still view them as a complex solution for complex needs. However, a growing number of alternative strategies are now available via mutual funds.
How to Start a Podcast
It’s not just smaller advisor firms with limited marketing resources that can use podcasting to deliver their messaging to affluent prospects and clients. Big firms can easily leverage the potential of podcasts. I recently started a modestly successful podcast, so here are my suggestions for those who are thinking of doing the same.