Beyond the Headlines: Finding Opportunities in Today’s Markets
With markets reacting in part to geopolitical events, it’s hard not to be distracted by news headlines. To help sift through some of the noise, several of our senior investment leaders recently participated in a roundtable discussion of the events shaping the global markets today, the implications for investors and where they see potential opportunities ahead.
It’s Tsar, Not Comrade
February 12th was the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution. Surprisingly, the Kremlin has taken a very low-key stance on the centenary. We believe the government’s decision to downplay this historical event offers an insight into Russian President Putin’s thinking.
How to Educate Clients about Alternative Investing – and other alts-related news
With new data emerging showing consumers lack an understanding of alternative investments, we explore different alternative strategies investors can use to help educate their clients.
CEF Investor Trends
Closed-end fund investors continue to pursue income or regular cash flow, and in 2017 may find more strategies becoming available, says Anne Kritzmire of Nuveen.
Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast
One of the great joys of working at GMO is the freedom to disagree. Indeed, many moons ago when Ben Inker first approached me about joining GMO, he told me that, having read my work, he believed we were very much philosophically aligned.
The Threat and Risk of Rising Interest Rates: Separating Fact from Fiction
The threat of rising interest rates is all the rage in financial circles today. However, the seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?
Quest for the Holy Grail: The Fair Value of the Equity Market
Macroeconomic volatility is a useful tool for contrarian investors who are seeking fair value in an equity market characterized by continually rising valuations.
Scaling It Back
We expect the global economic expansion to strengthen and broaden over the cyclical horizon, but with improved growth and inflation prospects, central banks may scale back accommodation.
Risk: What Really Matters
Recent months have been unusually eventful, characterized by a swing in the global political landscape, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical flash points, demonetization in India and military coups in Turkey (among many others), all feeding into general market nervousness and a significant rise in volatility. This was certainly the case in emerging markets.
Expect the S&P 500 to Underperform Risk-Free T-Bills Over the Coming 10-12 Years
Presently, based on the most historically reliable valuation measures we identify, we expect annual total returns for the S&P 500 averaging just 0.6% over the coming 12-year period; a prospective return that we expect will not only underperform bonds over this horizon, but even the lowly yields available on risk-free T-bills.
Global Supply Chains Contain Inflation
Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior
The Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through January. "Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.2% (5.2 billion vehicle miles) for January 2017 as compared with January 2016." The less volatile 12-month moving average was up 0.16% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is up 0.42% month-over-month and up only 0.7% year-over-year.
China: Making solid progress on its Five-Year Plan
As the National People’s Congress convenes, we highlight three government priorities to watch.
Is the Snap Back in Rates Really that Surprising?
The post-Fed action in the bond market yesterday was impressive, yet left some begging for answers. If the Fed raised short rates yesterday and reiterated its plans for the subsequent five rate increases through 2018, shouldn’t the long-end be selling off? If it were only that easy.
Why Fixed-Income Investors Shouldn’t Fret About Fed Tightening
Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates at its March policy meeting, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group CIO Chris Molumphy weighs in on why fixed-income investors shouldn’t fret.