Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
The financial industry is being pulled between two powerful forces: bottom-up financial technology is enabling seamless integration, while top-down geoeconomic statecraft is promoting fragmentation. So much for the conventional wisdom that finance will simply become smoother, cheaper, and more globalized over time.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Finance leaders can use agentic AI to boost budget visibility, develop more accurate forecasts efficiently, and find insights in data that would typically require extensive manual effort. With the right platform and a careful approach to governance, finance functions can start reaping the benefits of augmentation within months.
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
Financial markets continue to grapple with a fundamental question: If inflation remains above target after years of restrictive monetary policy, is interest-rate policy still aimed at the right problem?
Retail investors buy corporate bond ETFs expecting steady coupons and ballast against stock market volatility. Traditionally, fixed-income portfolios were anchored by defensive issuers like banks, industrials and utilities.
A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.
In his latest insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, examines why the Fed’s actions tend to lag the economic cycle, how deglobalization may limit its flexibility, and what a potentially longer period of tighter monetary policy could mean for investors.
When during the calendar year should retirees take their required minimum distributions (RMDs)? Take the RMDs early and eliminate the chore? Wait until December to maximize tax-deferred compounding? Or spread the distributions throughout the year? Advisors often start with too narrow a view of what clients are trying to optimize.
Only 30% of Americans believe they’ll be able to retire comfortably — an amount retirement plan participants now estimate is $1.2 million, a recent survey by Schroders found. 33% of plan participants said that their credit card debt was higher than their retirement savings.
Starting Tuesday, OpenAI will convene its annual developer conference. The timing isn’t ideal.
As bond yields have risen, mortgage rates are again facing upward pressure, extending the U.S. housing market's post-pandemic affordability challenges. Beyond mortgage rates, trends in wage growth, taxes, and insurance costs also continue to shape the affordability outlook.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Understanding why investor optimism wins over a full market cycle is one of the most underrated edges an investor can own, and it has almost nothing to do with waving pom-poms.
The financial markets are navigating a storm. The Treasury yield sell-off intensified this week, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to an intraday high of 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
Decided to go independent? Here's how to design your RIA's client model, exit plan, technology, and compliance foundation before you file paperwork or sign a custodian agreement.
Before evaluating whether a long-short strategy belongs in a portfolio, we think it helps to understand what's actually happening under the hood. Let's start at the beginning.
A snowball effect of asset values can similarly empower wealth effects: the tendency for consumers to spend more as the value of their investments rises. Wealth effects are surprising at first glance: household investments may be illiquid and tend not to produce substantial cash flow. However, a rising net worth builds a consumer’s confidence in their ability to afford purchases.
The BlackRock Model Portfolio Solutions team made significant allocation shifts during the week ended September 24, 2026. The team recently managed over $300 billion and often causes shockwaves in the ETF industry.
I propose that the question of whether now is an especially auspicious time to buy in general — or more incisively, whether properly allocated investors should have more, less, or the same TIPS exposure when rates are relatively high — is more nuanced.
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.
The S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macro headwinds. Despite oil prices topping $100 per barrel, 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 5%, and a renewed shift toward tighter monetary policy, the index continues to hover near record levels.
I do not know whether quantum computing is in that kind of window right now. Nobody does, and I am suspicious of anyone who claims certainty in either direction. What I can say is that the pattern-matching is uncomfortably familiar.
Creating significant wealth requires concentration of capital, attention, risk, and decision-making.
The tectonic plates of the global economy have shifted. Across the world, yields on long government bonds — keystone of the entire financial system — have climbed to their highest in decades. A trend that had been clear ever since the brief post-pandemic boom turned into resurgent inflation and higher rates has suddenly accelerated.
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products, which are managed based on “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the report every other Monday, along with an accompanying podcast.
Doshi said gold holding $4,000 during the correction and later rallying to $4,700 before last week's Fed rate hike strengthened his conviction that the broader gold bull market remains intact despite continued headwinds from the Iran war oil shock.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.
Investment bubbles are inherently dangerous beasts. Like a natural Ponzi scheme, an investment bubble needs to draw in ever larger amounts of capital to keep it going. Nothing attracts capital like apparent success, so an inflating bubble that is creating fortunes for those who got in early will inevitably draw in capital. Unfortunately, this means the amount of money lost when the bubble bursts can outstrip the gains created on its way up.
We know from recent history why this question feels so timely. Fixed income remains a foundational portfolio building block, offering low-correlated or uncorrelated diversification and downside risk mitigation. However, holding long-dated bonds in recent years has been notoriously painful.
Looking ahead, markets are priced for additional hikes. And our base case is that the FOMC will likely deliver one or two more 25-bp rate hikes through this year and into early next. However, looking further out, anticipating appropriate Fed policy through a financial-conditions-targeting framework has its own limitations. Hence, a neutral rate anchor is still useful.
LPL Research analyzes S&P 500 margin expansion, assessing how much is structural versus cyclical and what that means for future earnings forecasts.
Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are developing faster than investors anticipated just a few years ago, fueling a popular narrative that AI will trigger widespread job cuts. Yet there’s little evidence to back this view. Instead, we find that AI is changing hiring patterns, altering skill requirements and shifting the mix of work performed within firms.
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
For many advisory firms, portfolio management creates a practical tension. Standardized models can simplify implementation and support scale, yet they may not reflect a firm's investment philosophy, tax realities, legacy holdings or preferred managers. Building every portfolio internally preserves control, but it also demands time, systems and ongoing investment oversight.
AI can do the prep. It writes the file notes, assembles the meeting brief, and produces a credible first version of the plan. The time saved is real, and no one should hand it back. The bill arrives later. A skill you stop practicing gets weaker, and professional judgment is a skill.
Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
The week began with calls for a potential slowdown in AI spending amid growing safety concerns and included a midweek Fed rate hike for the first time since 2023. The S&P 500 finished slightly lower for the second week in a row despite continuing signs that economic growth is strong. Shorter-term bond yields pushed higher as investors priced in the potential for additional rate hikes, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Every runner has a natural pace: the speed that we maintain under optimal conditions like flat terrain, cool temperatures and a good night of sleep. Runners can train to speed up to meet a target time, or slow down for endurance.
Longevity optimists believe advances in geroscience, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and other fields could significantly extend both health span and lifespan. Living healthy into our late 90s, and perhaps beyond 100 for many, should be taken seriously when thinking about our personal and financial futures.
Cryptocurrency can complicate divorce even when no one is hiding it. Early identification and collaboration can prevent a misunderstood transaction or unilateral decision from becoming a costly dispute. This preparation also gives both spouses a reliable basis for evaluating settlement terms and trade-offs.
Advisors equipped with outcome-based allocation frameworks and cash-flow-focused strategies like dividend-growth investing can help business owners translate a singular liquidity event into a wealth plan aligned with their lifestyle, generational, and aspirational goals.
For most of this year, investors have flocked into small caps to diversify away from the concentrated AI trade. Rising interest rates are threatening to put a damper on that.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
In August, a flurry of ETF-related deals were announced and expected to close by early 2027. Goldman Sachs is buying NEOS Investments. T. Rowe Price plans to add F/M Investments. Victory Capital is acquiring First Eagle.
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
This week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was largely in line with expectations. While many market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) members anticipated another rate increase later this year, we remained in the camp that viewed the move as likely the last increase before the Fed adopted a wait-and-see approach, allowing geopolitical developments to stabilize and recent inflationary base effects related to the US-Iran war to fade.
Investors in the US Treasury market are shifting their focus to owning shorter-dated government bonds, a bet that the Federal Reserve will eventually emerge victorious in its fight against inflation.
This month, our experts discuss how Federal Reserve tightening has historically affected the markets; whether European stocks might be worth a second look; and the news from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We provide the supporting documentation for all claims summarized below in the linked articles.
Catherine LeGraw and B.J. Brannan of GMO's Asset Allocation team discussed the role of liquid alternative strategies in today's investment landscape.
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
Open any market commentary today and the conversation is dominated by giants. Mega-cap technology companies command outsized shares of major indexes, and the private markets tell a similar story, as we watch companies increasingly staying private well past the point where they once would have gone public.
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed. Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade. Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, recently observed 'The core problem in AI research is that of alignment - getting the AI to ‘try to do the right thing’ by human standards…
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh had ground to make up on Wednesday — and, for the most part, did what was necessary.
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered on consensus expectations by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting.
Municipal bonds might still offer attractive tax-advantaged income and relatively stable credit quality for investors who understand the risks.
The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.
Vanguard research challenges four myths about women investors, revealing what female clients value from financial advisors, from expertise to collaboration.
Investors should continue to treat bonds with caution even as the selloff bolsters the case for holding them in multi-asset portfolios, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the new fed funds trading range to 3.75%–4.00%. The money and bond markets had been pricing in a potential rate hike at this gathering, and Warsh & Co. ultimately determined that such a move was warranted. That said, the ‘rate hike’ story does not end here.
Janus Henderson launched a new international equity ETF on Wednesday, according to a Janus Henderson press release. The Janus Henderson International Core Alpha ETF (JINT) seeks long-term growth of capital across developed markets outside the U.S.
Clients value advisors who are knowledgeable about philanthropy as well as those who collaborate with philanthropic specialists when deeper expertise is needed. Advisors who coordinate deliberately with specialists, rather than working around them, are best positioned to meet those expectations.
With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
A week of rising oil prices and higher interest rates sent stocks lower across the board as investors increasingly priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin a rate-hiking cycle at its September 16 meeting. Following the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, futures markets implied an 88 percent probability that the Fed will, or at least should, raise rates at next week's meeting.
Discover how autocallables provide steady income and downside risk protection in volatile markets, and how autocallable ETFs can help.
In what is a good sign, many discussions around automation generally and AI specifically are increasingly moving to questions about compliance and liability. Basically, people are asking whether the agentic coworker they just hired is smart enough to trust.
Anthropic PBC is pitching financial advisers on a version of Claude that blends the chatbot with financial analytics and risk management technology run by BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc. and other firms.
An essay from Anthropic PBC’s Dario Amodei saying artificial intelligence companies must “pace the frontier” has got the world talking about a slowdown in their most cutting-edge research. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and SpaceX’s Elon Musk publicly agreed with the post.
Treasury yields are closing in on an inflection point where, historically, stocks and bonds have reinforced losses in one another. That points to a regime shift of higher bond and stock volatility and wider credit spreads.
The future of retirement planning is not a new model replacing an old one, but a more holistic approach that blends rigorous analytics with important client input. Advisors who adopt this integrated model will find that it deepens client conversations, clarifies tradeoffs, improves long-term decision-making.
Periods like this can feel especially tense, with higher stakes and more urgent headlines. Yet over time, markets have shown they are forward-looking and resilient, absorbing uncertainty rather than freezing in it. While today’s geopolitical backdrop may feel unsettling, it fits a long history of disruptions that markets have ultimately navigated.
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Financial Planning
Stock Market’s Wall of Worry Gets Taller
Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.
Strong U.S. Growth Meets Rising Rate Risks
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Supercharge Your Roth Savings With After-Tax Contributions
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
Nurture Over Noise: Helping DC Participants Navigate a Complex Information Age
From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.
Investing Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
The Opposing Forces Reshaping Global Finance
The financial industry is being pulled between two powerful forces: bottom-up financial technology is enabling seamless integration, while top-down geoeconomic statecraft is promoting fragmentation. So much for the conventional wisdom that finance will simply become smoother, cheaper, and more globalized over time.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: September 2026
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
How Finance Teams Use Agentic AI to Plan Smarter, Forecast Accurately, and Operate Proactively
Finance leaders can use agentic AI to boost budget visibility, develop more accurate forecasts efficiently, and find insights in data that would typically require extensive manual effort. With the right platform and a careful approach to governance, finance functions can start reaping the benefits of augmentation within months.
What the AI Investment Boom Means for Bonds
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
Slowing Down the Economy? There Is a Better Way
Financial markets continue to grapple with a fundamental question: If inflation remains above target after years of restrictive monetary policy, is interest-rate policy still aimed at the right problem?
Inside IG Bond ETFs: The Hidden AI Bet
Retail investors buy corporate bond ETFs expecting steady coupons and ballast against stock market volatility. Traditionally, fixed-income portfolios were anchored by defensive issuers like banks, industrials and utilities.
How to Prepare for Decumulation in Retirement
A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.
Taking the Punchbowl Away From the Party
In his latest insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, examines why the Fed’s actions tend to lag the economic cycle, how deglobalization may limit its flexibility, and what a potentially longer period of tighter monetary policy could mean for investors.
When Should Clients Take Their RMDs? We May Be Optimizing the Wrong Thing
When during the calendar year should retirees take their required minimum distributions (RMDs)? Take the RMDs early and eliminate the chore? Wait until December to maximize tax-deferred compounding? Or spread the distributions throughout the year? Advisors often start with too narrow a view of what clients are trying to optimize.
Retirees Need $1.2M, but Carry More Debt Than Savings
Only 30% of Americans believe they’ll be able to retire comfortably — an amount retirement plan participants now estimate is $1.2 million, a recent survey by Schroders found. 33% of plan participants said that their credit card debt was higher than their retirement savings.
Can Sam Altman Catch Up While Slowing Down?
Starting Tuesday, OpenAI will convene its annual developer conference. The timing isn’t ideal.
The U.S. Housing Market Becomes a More Local Story
As bond yields have risen, mortgage rates are again facing upward pressure, extending the U.S. housing market's post-pandemic affordability challenges. Beyond mortgage rates, trends in wage growth, taxes, and insurance costs also continue to shape the affordability outlook.
House Call
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy
Understanding why investor optimism wins over a full market cycle is one of the most underrated edges an investor can own, and it has almost nothing to do with waving pom-poms.
How Rising Bond Yields are Shaping the Market Outlook
The financial markets are navigating a storm. The Treasury yield sell-off intensified this week, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to an intraday high of 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
How to Start an RIA Firm: A Pre-Launch Checklist for Advisors
Decided to go independent? Here's how to design your RIA's client model, exit plan, technology, and compliance foundation before you file paperwork or sign a custodian agreement.
Long-Short Investing: A Basic Guide in Plain English
Before evaluating whether a long-short strategy belongs in a portfolio, we think it helps to understand what's actually happening under the hood. Let's start at the beginning.
Sizing Up Wealth Effects
A snowball effect of asset values can similarly empower wealth effects: the tendency for consumers to spend more as the value of their investments rises. Wealth effects are surprising at first glance: household investments may be illiquid and tend not to produce substantial cash flow. However, a rising net worth builds a consumer’s confidence in their ability to afford purchases.
BlackRock Model Portfolios Rebalance: Why Active Core Now Has Momentum
The BlackRock Model Portfolio Solutions team made significant allocation shifts during the week ended September 24, 2026. The team recently managed over $300 billion and often causes shockwaves in the ETF industry.
TIPS Yields at 3% Are Awesome! But Fundamental Principles Don’t Change
I propose that the question of whether now is an especially auspicious time to buy in general — or more incisively, whether properly allocated investors should have more, less, or the same TIPS exposure when rates are relatively high — is more nuanced.
Municipal Bonds: Fiscal 2027 State Outlook
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.
The Message From Market Breadth
The S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macro headwinds. Despite oil prices topping $100 per barrel, 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 5%, and a renewed shift toward tighter monetary policy, the index continues to hover near record levels.
When Do You Start Paying Attention? A Lesson from NVIDIA’s 2018 Financial Results
I do not know whether quantum computing is in that kind of window right now. Nobody does, and I am suspicious of anyone who claims certainty in either direction. What I can say is that the pattern-matching is uncomfortably familiar.
What Happens After the Wealth-Creation Phase?
Creating significant wealth requires concentration of capital, attention, risk, and decision-making.
The Big One Is Rumbling in the Bond Market
The tectonic plates of the global economy have shifted. Across the world, yields on long government bonds — keystone of the entire financial system — have climbed to their highest in decades. A trend that had been clear ever since the brief post-pandemic boom turned into resurgent inflation and higher rates has suddenly accelerated.
A Broader Market, a Stronger Case for Dividend Growth
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
Discipline Through Uncertainty
This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.
Trump Accounts Are Here: What Families Need to Know
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
Breaking the Bond Fever!
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products, which are managed based on “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the report every other Monday, along with an accompanying podcast.
$10,000 Gold! A Question of When, Not If
Doshi said gold holding $4,000 during the correction and later rallying to $4,700 before last week's Fed rate hike strengthened his conviction that the broader gold bull market remains intact despite continued headwinds from the Iran war oil shock.
Fed Hikes: What's Next for Treasury Yields?
The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.
A Catalyst for the AI Bubble Break
Investment bubbles are inherently dangerous beasts. Like a natural Ponzi scheme, an investment bubble needs to draw in ever larger amounts of capital to keep it going. Nothing attracts capital like apparent success, so an inflating bubble that is creating fortunes for those who got in early will inevitably draw in capital. Unfortunately, this means the amount of money lost when the bubble bursts can outstrip the gains created on its way up.
Long Bonds vs. Derivative Income: The Income Dilemma
We know from recent history why this question feels so timely. Fixed income remains a foundational portfolio building block, offering low-correlated or uncorrelated diversification and downside risk mitigation. However, holding long-dated bonds in recent years has been notoriously painful.
A Recalibration, Not a Rate-Hike Cycle
Looking ahead, markets are priced for additional hikes. And our base case is that the FOMC will likely deliver one or two more 25-bp rate hikes through this year and into early next. However, looking further out, anticipating appropriate Fed policy through a financial-conditions-targeting framework has its own limitations. Hence, a neutral rate anchor is still useful.
What's Holding Up Record Margins?
LPL Research analyzes S&P 500 margin expansion, assessing how much is structural versus cyclical and what that means for future earnings forecasts.
Growth Holds, Pressure Builds
Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.
So Far, AI Is Reshaping More Than Cutting the Workforce
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are developing faster than investors anticipated just a few years ago, fueling a popular narrative that AI will trigger widespread job cuts. Yet there’s little evidence to back this view. Instead, we find that AI is changing hiring patterns, altering skill requirements and shifting the mix of work performed within firms.
Energy Hedges the AI Trade
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
Custom Models, Your Way, Powered by a Shared CIO
For many advisory firms, portfolio management creates a practical tension. Standardized models can simplify implementation and support scale, yet they may not reflect a firm's investment philosophy, tax realities, legacy holdings or preferred managers. Building every portfolio internally preserves control, but it also demands time, systems and ongoing investment oversight.
The Skill That Fades When AI Does the Prep
AI can do the prep. It writes the file notes, assembles the meeting brief, and produces a credible first version of the plan. The time saved is real, and no one should hand it back. The bill arrives later. A skill you stop practicing gets weaker, and professional judgment is a skill.
A Guide to Coordinating Your Estate Plan With Your Financial Plan
Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.
On My Mind: One Flew Over the Dove’s Nest
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
The Fed Hikes Rates Amid Sticky Inflation and Strong Economic Data
The week began with calls for a potential slowdown in AI spending amid growing safety concerns and included a midweek Fed rate hike for the first time since 2023. The S&P 500 finished slightly lower for the second week in a row despite continuing signs that economic growth is strong. Shorter-term bond yields pushed higher as investors priced in the potential for additional rate hikes, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Neutral Rates Nosing Up
Every runner has a natural pace: the speed that we maintain under optimal conditions like flat terrain, cool temperatures and a good night of sleep. Runners can train to speed up to meet a target time, or slow down for endurance.
A Practical Take on Longevity for Advisors & Clients
Longevity optimists believe advances in geroscience, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and other fields could significantly extend both health span and lifespan. Living healthy into our late 90s, and perhaps beyond 100 for many, should be taken seriously when thinking about our personal and financial futures.
How Financial Advisors Add Value in Divorce Cases Involving Digital Assets
Cryptocurrency can complicate divorce even when no one is hiding it. Early identification and collaboration can prevent a misunderstood transaction or unilateral decision from becoming a costly dispute. This preparation also gives both spouses a reliable basis for evaluating settlement terms and trade-offs.
Navigating the $14-Trillion Transition: How Advisors Can Guide Business Owners Through Liquidity Events
Advisors equipped with outcome-based allocation frameworks and cash-flow-focused strategies like dividend-growth investing can help business owners translate a singular liquidity event into a wealth plan aligned with their lifestyle, generational, and aspirational goals.
Riskiest Stocks Lose Performance Edge as Interest Rates Climb
For most of this year, investors have flocked into small caps to diversify away from the concentrated AI trade. Rising interest rates are threatening to put a damper on that.
Here We Go Again—Another Hiking Cycle?
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
M&A Mania Hits ETF Industry: Who’s Next?
In August, a flurry of ETF-related deals were announced and expected to close by early 2027. Goldman Sachs is buying NEOS Investments. T. Rowe Price plans to add F/M Investments. Victory Capital is acquiring First Eagle.
What the Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Means for the Markets
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
Trying to Decipher the Federal Reserve
This week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was largely in line with expectations. While many market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) members anticipated another rate increase later this year, we remained in the camp that viewed the move as likely the last increase before the Fed adopted a wait-and-see approach, allowing geopolitical developments to stabilize and recent inflationary base effects related to the US-Iran war to fade.
Short-End Treasuries Become Popular Bet on Fed Inflation Win
Investors in the US Treasury market are shifting their focus to owning shorter-dated government bonds, a bet that the Federal Reserve will eventually emerge victorious in its fight against inflation.
Schwab Market Perspective
This month, our experts discuss how Federal Reserve tightening has historically affected the markets; whether European stocks might be worth a second look; and the news from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We provide the supporting documentation for all claims summarized below in the linked articles.
Understanding Liquid Alternatives
Catherine LeGraw and B.J. Brannan of GMO's Asset Allocation team discussed the role of liquid alternative strategies in today's investment landscape.
Pacing the Frontier
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
What Would You Do With 9 Extra Hours a Week?
Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.
A Hawkish Fed, a Two-Speed China, and the Thread That Connects Them
The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
The Case for Small-Cap Investing: A Cyclical Story, Not a Broken One
Open any market commentary today and the conversation is dominated by giants. Mega-cap technology companies command outsized shares of major indexes, and the private markets tell a similar story, as we watch companies increasingly staying private well past the point where they once would have gone public.
Dear Humanity – Can We Teach AI Compassion?
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed. Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade. Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, recently observed 'The core problem in AI research is that of alignment - getting the AI to ‘try to do the right thing’ by human standards…
Warsh Did Well. But Where Does the Fed Go From Here?
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh had ground to make up on Wednesday — and, for the most part, did what was necessary.
Capital Return Retreat: Dividends and Buybacks Slump as Macro Risks Mount in Q3
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
Energy Addition Within the Transition
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
September Fed Hike May Be More Than a Risk Management Exercise
The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered on consensus expectations by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting.
Do Munis Still Deserve a Place in Your Portfolio?
Municipal bonds might still offer attractive tax-advantaged income and relatively stable credit quality for investors who understand the risks.
Higher Yields May Be More Structural Than Cyclical
The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.
Debunking 4 Myths for Financial Advisors About Women Investors
Vanguard research challenges four myths about women investors, revealing what female clients value from financial advisors, from expertise to collaboration.
Goldman Sachs Is Wary of Long Bonds With More Volatility Likely
Investors should continue to treat bonds with caution even as the selloff bolsters the case for holding them in multi-asset portfolios, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Planning Considerations for a Direct Indexing Program
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
Fed Watch: Finally, ‘Walkin’ the Walk’
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the new fed funds trading range to 3.75%–4.00%. The money and bond markets had been pricing in a potential rate hike at this gathering, and Warsh & Co. ultimately determined that such a move was warranted. That said, the ‘rate hike’ story does not end here.
Janus Henderson Launches International Core Alpha ETF
Janus Henderson launched a new international equity ETF on Wednesday, according to a Janus Henderson press release. The Janus Henderson International Core Alpha ETF (JINT) seeks long-term growth of capital across developed markets outside the U.S.
The Philanthropic Specialist Is Less a Competitor Than a Secret Weapon
Clients value advisors who are knowledgeable about philanthropy as well as those who collaborate with philanthropic specialists when deeper expertise is needed. Advisors who coordinate deliberately with specialists, rather than working around them, are best positioned to meet those expectations.
What History Says About Fed Hikes and Stocks
With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.
Charting the Structural Growth Opportunity in Health Care Technology
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
Markets Tested by Higher Rates and Sticky Inflation
A week of rising oil prices and higher interest rates sent stocks lower across the board as investors increasingly priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin a rate-hiking cycle at its September 16 meeting. Following the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, futures markets implied an 88 percent probability that the Fed will, or at least should, raise rates at next week's meeting.
Why Autocallables? The Case for Autocallable Allocation
Discover how autocallables provide steady income and downside risk protection in volatile markets, and how autocallable ETFs can help.
You Cannot Depose a Model
In what is a good sign, many discussions around automation generally and AI specifically are increasingly moving to questions about compliance and liability. Basically, people are asking whether the agentic coworker they just hired is smart enough to trust.
Anthropic Pitches New Claude Tool for Financial Advisers
Anthropic PBC is pitching financial advisers on a version of Claude that blends the chatbot with financial analytics and risk management technology run by BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc. and other firms.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Is Still On. And So Is the AI Race
An essay from Anthropic PBC’s Dario Amodei saying artificial intelligence companies must “pace the frontier” has got the world talking about a slowdown in their most cutting-edge research. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and SpaceX’s Elon Musk publicly agreed with the post.
Treasury Yields Above 5.25% Change Everything
Treasury yields are closing in on an inflection point where, historically, stocks and bonds have reinforced losses in one another. That points to a regime shift of higher bond and stock volatility and wider credit spreads.
A Collaborative Path Forward: Integrating Monte Carlo Modeling, the Actuarial Approach, and Copilot
The future of retirement planning is not a new model replacing an old one, but a more holistic approach that blends rigorous analytics with important client input. Advisors who adopt this integrated model will find that it deepens client conversations, clarifies tradeoffs, improves long-term decision-making.
Missiles, Markets, & Momentum: Why the Market Outlasts the Headlines
Periods like this can feel especially tense, with higher stakes and more urgent headlines. Yet over time, markets have shown they are forward-looking and resilient, absorbing uncertainty rather than freezing in it. While today’s geopolitical backdrop may feel unsettling, it fits a long history of disruptions that markets have ultimately navigated.
From the US Market Desk: From Missouri
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Trump Accounts for Business Owners: Two Decisions, Not One
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.