Search Results
Results 3,901–3,950
of 4,353 found.
Invest to Your Full Potential Even Under Pressure
In times of extreme pressure, athletes, students and investors have one thing in common: they occasionally choke. Whether its Rick Perry forgetting the third item on his list during the Republican debate or a favorite basketball player missing the basket in the playoffs, when stakes are high, people can fail to perform to their full potential.
The Curse of the Magazine Cover Indicator
Its fitting that last week former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson came out to speak about debt issues during a month when Time published a bull on the cover of its magazine. The bull is a symbol of a strong and positive stock market, but it seems whenever a U.S. company makes the cover of a publication, the company is in trouble and that its run is at an end.
Weekly Market Commentary
Depending upon where you reside, or on which side of the issues you fall, it was a good week last week. We averted a military strike on Syria by the U.S., at least temporarily; we had reasonable adjustments to economic growth statistics; and most made some money in their portfolios. While cyclical dynamics are relatively benign, the broader secular outlook continues to build a solid foundation for recovery.
Dow Changes as a Contrary Indicator
The folks who select the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) came out with their latest changes on Monday, September 9, 2013. They removed Bank of America (BAC), Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Alcoa (AA) from the DJIA. Added to the index were Visa (V), Nike (NKE) and Goldman Sachs (GS). At Smead Capital Management, we are always looking for important psychological clues to human behavior as it pertains to the popularity of common stocks.
Tidbits Foreclosure, BK Signs and John Mauldin's Unrealistic Expectations
by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis,
Some tidbits to start and then on to an outstanding guest commentary from the renowned John Mauldin. Our tidbits focus on Foreclosures and some insights around our review of some bankruptcy warning signs published by S&P Capital IQ. Our guest commentary, Unrealistic Expectations (I might have called it Unrealistic Assumptions), focuses on the daunting reality of underfunded pension plans.
Russia is Tough to Love, Easier to Hate, Hard for Investors to Ignore. Here's Why
Russian President Vladimir Putin created a stir recently when he shared his thoughts with Americans in an op-ed printed in The New York Times. According to The Times, very few pieces written by heads of state have been published by the paper and very few received the attention Putin attracted.
Opportunity Out of Uncertainty: Finding Investment Ideas in a Rising Market
by Jay Kaplan of The Royce Funds,
Portfolio Manager and Principal Jay Kaplan talks about investing in a slow-growth, high-price environment and discusses where we are in the current retail cycle, companies in which he has high confidence, and his experience with a long-term holding.
Check or Checkmate...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
The White Houses goal is to persuade Congress to authorize a limited military strike against Syria to punish it for a deadly chemical weapons attack. But after a frenetic week of wall-to-wall intelligence briefings, dozens of phone calls, and hours of hearings with senior members of Mr. Obamas war council, more and more lawmakers, Republican and Democrat, are lining up to vote against the president.
Weekly Market Commentary
The Syrian war crisis has prompted another moment in time for the markets to reflect and digest both the near-term and long term consequences of our response from a political and economic perspective. Whats most worrisome is the precedent of previous actions the U.S. has taken in global conflicts, and the potential catalysts for negative consequences for the markets.
Will Gold Follow Its Seasonal Pattern This Year?
There are factors beyond Syria this week driving gold. Thats the Love Trade. This group gives gold as gifts for loved ones during important holidays and festivals. This is the time of the year that we are in the midst of right now. Historically, September has been golds best month of the year. Looking at more than four decades of monthly returns, the precious metal has seen its biggest increase this month, averaging 2.3 percent.
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Good economic news in developed markets has been overshadowed lately by the bad (burgeoning Asian currency crisis) and the ugly (Syria). Unwinding central bank support from the markets will be arduous; it is already contributing to destabilization of certain emerging market currencies. News out of Washington this autumn tapering, Fed leadership and the debt ceiling has the potential to add volatility and uncertainty. The U.S. equity market has been the place to be this year, but diversification remains key.
Is China Past Its Manufacturing Prime?
by Sammy Suzuki of AllianceBernstein,
China has been an incredible export engine of manufactured goods over the past decade and the central player of the BRICs era. But mounting competition from other countries is gradually pulling production away from China. How should investors proceed?
Seventh Inning Stretch
by William Gross of PIMCO,
They say that reality is whatever you wish it to be and I suppose that could be true. Just wish it, as Jiminy Cricket used to say, and it will come true. Realitys relativity came to mind the other day as I was opening a box of Cracker Jacks for an afternoon snack. Thats right I said Cracker Jacks! I cant count the number of people who have told me during the seventh inning stretch at a baseball game to make sure I sing Cracker Jack (without the S) because thats what the song says. I care not. No one ever says buy me some potato chip or some pea
Fixed Income - Where to Now?
by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent,
Since the end of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), investors moved aggressively into fixed income asset classes. They were quickly rewarded in the years following the crisis with a combination of falling interest rates and tighter credit spreads, which led to positive absolute returns. The easy money in fixed income is gone, however, and now is the time for careful asset class selection.
So Step Right Up, Pick Your Favorites...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
So with the backing of The White House, the State Department, the Senate & The Economist, the United States is going to launch Tomahawks on Syrian targets. The President did say that he will let Congress vote on a strike, but both he, Secretary Kerry and Senator Reid let it be known that they will be lighting fuses soon. So as a refresher as to who is supporting whom in Syria, the chart below will both assist and thoroughly confuse you...
Getting Prospects to Respond to Your Emails
by Dan Richards,
The chances that a prospect will open an email from someone they dont know are slim. Advisors who rely on mass emails are increasingly challenged to find creative ways to get their message through. But a few advisors who are succeeding in attracting clients via email invitations told me of five ways they get past inbox filters.
As Uncertainty Abounds in September, Sideways Consolidation Continues
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
Global equities struggled last week, with the S&P 500 declining -1.39%.1 Volatility rose from geopolitical uncertainty over the military strike in Syria.2 Oil prices spiked with concerns about escalation and tension but retreated due to dampened international support and expectations that a military campaign would be short-lived. The U.S. Treasury announced its borrowing capacity will be exhausted by mid-October, exposing contentious fiscal battles. Reports mentioned former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers may be leading the succession race for Fed Chairman.
A Couple of Thoughts on Decoupling
by Adam Peck of Heartland Advisors,
As equity markets have pushed toward new highs this year, one of the worries lingering in the background has been the potential impact of Chinas economic slowdown on the U.S. weakening demand from that country, the thinking has gone, could hurt the broad range of companies that export goods to China.
Murder's Morality
by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational,
There are plenty of things that might upset Johnny “The Basin Street Butcher” Martorano. Perhaps having murdered 20 people in the course of his career as a mob hitman doesn’t sit so well decades later. Well, no, this is not it, Martorano recently recounted his murders as part of Whitey Bulger’s trial with a perfectly flat affect, much to the displeasure of his victims’ families. It seems guilt doesn’t keep him up at night.
5 China Charts That Look Bullish for Commodities
Over the past few months, investors have seen better economic data coming out of Europe. Consumer confidence in the continent has been rising, manufacturing data is improving and the fiscal situation is on the mend. Now, China appears to be strengthening as well, which could signal better times ahead. Below are five charts that look bullish for China and commodities. While not meant to be comprehensive, they do point to areas where investors might want to pay close attention.
Trickle-Up Economics
Major magazines have a history of putting a topic on their cover at the end of a long-term trend. For example, The Death of Equities was a Business Week cover in late 1979, near the end of a miserable stretch in the US stock market. Times recent cover story, The Childfree Life, got us wondering about the economics of childbearing in the US? Does Times cover mark the end of a trend? Can the US economy succeed without homegrown population increases? Will economic success driven by the current demographics in the US trickle down to unemployed blue collar
Macro View...In Microwave Time (Part 2 of 2)
Todays blog post picks up where last weeks left off by updating the 13 key points for investors I laid out in an article in RIABiz.com on January 14 of this year. These were and are the most significant data and forces for investors to track today, to pursue long-term growth and sidestep major losses. As I did last week, I will also note whether I think each point is a positive or negative (or other) for investors now that we are about 3/5 of the way through 2013. The six areas covered last week were generally positive. Lets see about the final seven on the list
China's Government Can't Stop the Bust
On a recent trip to Europe we participated in a forum in Milan of five stock picking organizations. Two were from Brazil, one was from Malaysia and one was picking stocks inside China via the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We believe what they said was an enticement to investors for the purpose of getting them excited about stocks in their country. To us, this reveals a great deal about where prices in emerging stock markets and commodities are headed over the next five to seven years.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Asias emerging nations, the darling of the world economy since the 2000s, uncharacteristically slowed in the first quarter of 2013. After a decade of robust growth, many of Asias fast-growing economies are coming to terms with structural changes. Asian currencies, which had appreciated quite a bit over the past few years thanks to ultra-loose monetary policy in the developed world, came tumbling down at the first talk of a slowdown in the supply of cheap money.
A Generational Selling Opportunity for the U.S. Long Bond
Because investors tend to extrapolate what their general experience in markets has been recently well into the future, its easy to see why investors are having a long-term love affair with bonds. Yet the data in this paper suggests that a crisis in long bonds is coming and, given this information, individual and institutional investors alike should reconsider the bond portion of their portfolios.
Adapt or Die...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Bond king Bill Grosss $261.7 billion Total Return Fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. suffered a $7.5 billion net outflow last month, according to data from fund tracker Morningstar Inc. on Friday. It is the third straight monthly outflow for the Fund, on the heels of nearly $10 billion in redemptions in June. Clients have yanked $15.6 billion from Grosss Fund in 2013 through July. Jeffrey Gundlachs $37.9 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund suffered $580 million net outflow in July, according to Morningstar.
Two Charts Illustrate How to ?Follow the Money?
Too often investors get caught up in their political allegiance or parties, focus on the negative and lose confidence in stocks. As a result, they can miss great bull markets. I believe when it comes to finding investment opportunities, it?s not about the political party, it?s about the policies, both monetary and fiscal.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Throughout the 1980s, we heard talk from the investment community to go global, invest worldwide, perhaps driven by true globalization of corporate exchange and balance sheets, and perhaps also by the need by firms to create new products for their consumers to devour. Mutual funds, brokerages, and private equity companies alike saturated the media with product offerings from every corner of the globe and every possible market sector, including telecom, basic materials, energy and industrial development.
Who Let the Ferrari Out of the Garage?
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
With just three trading days left in the month, July is in the running for the title of least volatile month of the year, with the Standard & Poors 500-stock index averaging moves of just 0.39% this month through Thursdays close. That is lower than the 0.41% and 0.42% averages of January and March, respectively, when stocks were grinding slowly, but steadily higher.
Bursting of the Bond Bubble
Our April newsletter focused on the extreme overvaluation in the bond market. I argued that money market funds (or cash) were likely to outperform bonds and bond funds over the next decade. In May I applied the same logic to US stock prices and the inherent fallacy in the prevailing TINA (there is no alternative to stocks) hypothesis. Although stocks are likely to outperform bonds over the next decade, both asset classes remain seriously overvalued. In a world of overvalued assets, zero return looks much better than large potential losses even when that means foregoing transitory
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Well, at least, the Tigers are leading the AL Central. The city of Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection this week and pension owners and creditors are lining up to ask for pennies on the dollars on unpaid moneys owed. Detroit officially becomes the largest city in US history to file for such protection as it continues to suffer from a falling tax base after losing 250k residents between 2000 and 2010.
Risk Communicates Signals that Something Important is at Stake
The equity markets hit new all-time highs again this past quarter. However, we believe this rally is largely due to Ben Bernanke?s policy of Quantitative Easing (QE) which presently equates to the purchase of $85 billion in U.S. government debt every month. Through the Federal Reserve?s policies our government has effectively printed trillions of dollars since the financial crisis began, arguably inflating a host of asset prices including the stock market.
The Purgatory of Low Returns
by James Montier of GMO,
This might just be the cruelest time to be an asset allocator. Normally we find ourselves in situations in which at least something is cheap; for instance when large swathes of risk assets have been expensive, safe haven assets have generally been cheap, or at least reasonable (and vice versa). This was typified by the opportunity set we witnessed in 2007.
Did Bernanke's Dovish Comments Please the Markets?
by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments,
The key phrase: About half of these participants indicated that it likely would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year. Many other participants indicated that it likely would be appropriate to continue purchases into 2014. Bonds rallied, suggesting that the sell-off of the past few weeks had exhausted itself or overshot (at least for now).
Challenging a Long-Held Assumption about Commodities
It is widely accepted that China spurred higher commodity prices in the past decade. And if the country was the force behind the boom, then the assumption is that China?s lower, but still healthy growth will be a drag on commodity prices. But recent research challenges this assumption.
European Equities: Beyond the Headlines
Its fairly easy for investors to find reasons to shun European equities. While struggles in some Eurozone periphery countries continue to make eye-catching headlines, the broader story of Europe is far less fatalistic, according to Mutual Series Executive Vice President Philippe Brugere-Trelat, who manages the Mutual European Fund, Mutual Global Discovery Fund and Mutual International Fund. When it comes to Europe, he says one shouldnt throw out the baby with the bathwater, so to speak.
The Death of Disasterism
by Steven Vincent of BullBear Trading,
From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible revised start date of June 2012), ending the sideways secular bear market that started in 2000. Here are the basic components of that thesis through the last report.
Results 3,901–3,950
of 4,353 found.
