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The Iran Framework
On April 2, the P5+1 and Iran announced a framework to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. The framework is a roadmap to establishing a final agreement in June and could be a major step toward delaying Iran’s entry into the “nuclear club.” This report begins with a short history of Iran’s nuclear program. Next, we review the details of the framework and address the broader policy issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. An analysis of the real issue, regional hegemony, follows along with a review of the political factors of the deal. We conclude with the potential market effects.
China for Sale?
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
In recent years, some China watchers have been wondering where the “smart money” is going? How telling are the real estate transactions of the region’s tycoons? And do concerns still exist over the growth in loans to the corporate sector? Matthews Asia’s CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, explores.
Will a Weak Jobs Report and Poor Productivity Give the Fed Pause?
by Jeremy Schwartz, of WisdomTree, Inc.,
Last Friday, Professor Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz sat down with Sam Chandan, founder and chief economist at Chandan Economics, to discuss the unexpectedly weak jobs report, productivity, low interest rates and implications for the housing market.
The New World Order: Part IV
The final installment of our series examines how, in light of winning the Cold War, policymakers have been unable to settle on a set of key priorities and offers glimpses of a new policy emerging. The US never wanted to be a superpower; its founding story is one of wresting independence away from a colonial power. Now that the existential threat of communism is over, the political class has struggled to create a foreign policy that can simultaneously provide the required hegemonic global public goods and create a working economic policy and political coalition that will build domestic harmony.
Stock-Flow Accounting and the Coming $10 Trillion Loss in Paper Wealth
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
The failure to recognize that stock-flow consistency must hold in the economy and the financial markets is the basis for an enormous amount of misunderstanding in both fields. That omission of clear thinking about the link between economics and finance contributes to misguided policies that ignore the impact of financial distortions on the real economy, and invite speculation, malinvestment, and ultimately financial crisis.
Small Korean Companies Punch Above Their Weight
South Korea’s cultural exports are spreading around the globe. While the country’s corporate landscape is dominated by huge conglomerates, we think small-cap companies stand to benefit most from the world’s growing fascination with all things Korean. It might be time for investors to take a closer look.
Fit & Focused
by Mark R. Kiesel of PIMCO,
Many powerful forces are driving markets and asset prices; chief among them are global monetary policy, technicals and fundamentals.
We use rigorous top-down and bottom-up analysis to identify the best sectors and companies around the world.
We see opportunities in the U.S. (cyclical consumer and housing sectors), Europe (equities, bank capital securities, high yield bonds and corporate hybrids), China (property, technology and Macau) and Japan (cyclical industries, exporters and financials).
Corporate Bonds Offer Opportunities in the Slowing Economy
Lack of corporate leveraging and investment among Australian companies may provide a macro headwind to economic growth and, hence, future prospects for equity investors, but from a creditor's perspective, this should keep credit metrics relatively healthy.
PIMCO's bottom-up analysis has helped identify several opportunities, even within the resources sector, where strong balance sheets, competitive industry positions and sound management build a compelling case for credit investors despite the challenging period ahead.
The Not-So-Hidden Risks in REITs
by Keith Jurow,
With most investors confident that equity REITs are a sure bet to continue their upward momentum, now is an excellent time to carefully examine whether this ebullience is justified. Let's see what the conditions in the real-estate market mean for valuations in several of the largest REITs, as well as two of the ETFs that hold them - IYR and VNQ.
Investment Times Are A Changin’: New Landscape and New Approaches
Significant changes over the past 30-40 years make it very likely the next 30-40 will be very different than the last. Investors who are able to discard old assumptions and adapt to the new environment will be best suited to succeed and those who can’t or won’t will struggle. One thing that will have to change is that investors will need better access to high level investment expertise.
Cabela’s: Little Room for Error
Through our research process, we attempt to identify actionable investment ideas, but we often conclude that a company does not present an immediate long or short investment opportunity. A decision not to invest in a company is valued just as much as a decision to invest in one, but we are always expected to stay current on our area of coverage in case conditions change.
The Surging U.S. Dollar - Good For Some, Bad For Others
The US dollar has been surging against most other currencies over the last year. The question is, is the rising US dollar good for the economy and the investment markets, or not? No doubt, the rising dollar has been buffeting the US equity and bond markets this year and is increasingly cited as the main culprit. That is what we will delve into today.
How Advisors Are Positioning Fixed-Income Portfolios
by Bob Veres,
I asked the readers of my Inside Information newsletter service to tell me how they're preparing for an impending Fed rate hike. To date, I've received 178 pages of responses from advisors all over the country and across the spectrum, from indexers to fervent believers in active management, representing large and small firms investing on behalf of wealthy or middle-income clients.
Should You Buy in to Oil’s Secular Bear Market?
March 10th is one of my favorite days of the year. The tech bubble of the late 1990's burst on March 10th of 2000 and the biggest bear market of my career (2007 peak to 2009 low) bottomed on March 10th of 2009. There is a great deal to learn from those two dates in history as it pertains to the way secular bear markets work and how long it takes to move from the most popular investment in the world to being completely out of favor.
On My Radar: Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell
I wrote a piece in Forbes this week titled “Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell”. The gist of the piece is about a tug of war between opposing views on the direction of interest rates. The outcome of this contest will enrich some and demoralize others.
Stranded in NYC
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The week began well enough as I arrived Sunday a week ago in Orlando for the 36th annual Raymond James Institutional Investors conference. As previously stated, there were more than 1,000 portfolio managers (PMs) and analysts there to listen to some 300 companies’ presentations. In addition to the PMs and their analysts, our analysts anchored the presentations by the CEOs and CFOs of those companies.
Plan to Exit Stocks Within the Next 8 Years? Exit Now
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
Unless we observe a rather swift improvement in market internals and a further, material easing in credit spreads – neither which would relieve the present overvaluation of the market, but both which would defer our immediate concerns about downside risk – the present moment likely represents the best opportunity to reduce exposure to stock market risk that investors are likely to encounter in the coming 8 years.
Rhyming…but not Repeating.
Stocks have recovered their January losses and have continued to move higher. While economic growth remains solid and we remain secular bulls, investors should be prepared for increased volatility and the potential for a near-term correction. Also, European stocks may be due for at least a pause and we suggest looking to add exposure to emerging market positions if needed. Staying well diversified and keeping an eye on rebalancing is the recommended strategy.
On My Radar: A $9 Trillion Dollar Crisis
Here is the main point of today’s OMR: According to the Bank of International Settlements, non-bank borrowers outside the U.S. have borrowed, in dollars, $9 trillion. This is an increase of $4.5 trillion since the financial crisis and it places that $9 trillion on the wrong side of the dollar bet. The dollar debt is an example of how the Fed’s tightening will impact the world economy. This is a pressure cooker and the pot is starting to boil.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Help for the Economy from Housing?
The economic calendar includes much more housing data than we normally see in a single week. With Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony and the GDP revisions also on tap, I expect many observers to be linking these topics. They will ask:
Exploring for High Yield Energy Opportunities Amid Ailing Oil Prices
by Scott Roberts of Invesco Blog,
Energy is a popular topic of conversation in the high yield bond space, with many observers warning of a wave of defaults to come due to the plunge in oil prices. While there will likely be some defaults in the sector, we believe that the market’s pessimism has been overly broad, and we view energy as a potential source of opportunity in 2015. Having a clear understanding of macro drivers in energy, paired with careful security selection, will be key to successfully navigating this volatile space, in our view.
Global Economic Overview: January 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
Concerns about the sharp fall in capital investments and earnings growth in select sectors resulting from lower oil prices continue to cloud the global economic outlook. While the decline in fuel prices is revitalizing consumer spending across all the major countries, the energy and mining sectors have already started curtailing their capital outlays.
The Case for Global Investing
by Team of Litman Gregory,
As U.S. stocks have outperformed developed international and emerging-markets stocks in recent years, we’re starting to hear more people question the benefit of investing outside of the United States. This is an important question, and we acknowledge that owning foreign stocks has been an unsatisfying experience over the past couple of years. Moreover, given some of the current economic and geopolitical forces, it can appear likely to continue this way.
Global GDP Tracker
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
The top 25 global economies make up 90% of global gross domestic product (GDP). Through Friday, February 13, 2015, 13 of these economies (including countries and political unions) have already reported Q4 2014 GDP results, including the four largest economies (U.S., Eurozone, China, and India). As this commentary was being prepared for publication, Japan, the world’s fifth-largest economy, released Q4 GDP results.
On My Radar: Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction
This week let’s take a look at debt around the globe. I share a great piece from McKinsey & Company that shows just how much more debt, county by country, has been piled on since the 2007 debt induced financial crisis. Evidence is apparent in the commodity market and I also share a few ideas how you may risk manage those allocations.
The Most Successful Public Company In The World
Today we focus on the most successful and profitable company in the entire world. It just happens to be an American company, but many of us have never heard of it. If you had invested $1 in this company in 1968, your investment would have soared to $6,638 at the end of last year. I think you’ll be surprised to see which company this is.
Africa Could Mine Its Way to Prosperity if It Addressed Instability
Last week I attended the Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town, South Africa, as both a presenter and a student seeking opportunities. One of the highlights of the conference was former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s keynote address, during which he offered some crucial advice to African governments: To attract and foster a robust mining sector, a commitment to fiscal stability must be made.
Why We’re Cautious on Credit
by Rob Waldner of Invesco Blog,
In the current environment of rising global volatility and potentially weak US corporate earnings growth, Invesco Fixed Income is cautious on US and European credit. While European investment grade credit may be supported by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) program of quantitative easing (QE), we believe US investment grade would likely underperform US Treasuries in the current environment, although we would expect it to perform better than riskier assets.
U.S. Dollar Strength Continues to Impact U.S. Multinationals
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
S&P 500 Index has traded inversely to the currency moves over recent years, and it has become increasingly negatively negatively correlated. One reason, we believe, is that a growing share of revenue and profits for U.S. corporations comes from overseas—and that share seems likely to increase with the globalization of the economy.
Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Pension Fund Managers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We do not have to look to Greece to find massively underfunded obligations. Here in the US we can find hundreds of examples, willingly created by politicians and businessmen who proclaim they are working for the public good. We call them pension funds, but they’re just another form of unfunded debt. A sovereign bond is a promise to pay a certain amount of money over time.
On My Radar: Go Ahead Angela, Make My Day
I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual Conference this past week, I thought I’d share several key takeaways with you.
Europe: The Road to Recovery?
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
Although it is too soon to gauge the effectiveness of QE in the Eurozone, key readings and data are beginning to show improvement, and consensus expectations are for continued growth in 2015. However, Market participants looking for an immediate and sustained response by the Eurozone economy to QE may be disappointed. The renewed political and fiscal uncertainty in Greece will be watched closely by market participants in the coming weeks and months.
Don’t Count High Yield Out in 2015
Fears about higher US interest rates, rising defaults and a multi-month decline in the price of oil have injected a dose of high anxiety into the high-yield market. But we still think investors will be better off this year if they stand their ground and stay invested.
Results 3,451–3,500
of 4,316 found.
