One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.
I expect to spend this year Living Dangerously. Yes, I’m thinking of the 1982 film starring a very youthful Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver, based on an earlier Christopher Koch novel. It has an Asian setting and features corrupt politics, neophyte journalists, international intrigue plus a gender-bending Chinese dwarf. If you aren’t sure how all those fit together, then welcome to 2019. We are all stuck in this craziness and can only make the best of it.
Just seven short weeks ago, the floating-rate loan market was standing tall with a 4.0% year-to-date return through October. Not only were loans on pace for the 5%+ calendar year mark that many anticipated, they had performed with remarkably low volatility and a performance profile that trumped all major asset classes.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has roiled markets with its latest rate hike and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell, who disappointed many investors as insufficiently dovish in his December 19 remarks.
Equity markets send a timely reminder about diversifying into alternatives.
Looking back over the past 12 months, I’m not surprised to see that my five most popular and widely shared posts of 2018 involve gold (with one exception). With many stocks falling into correction territory or worse, the yellow metal emerged as a standout asset in the fourth quarter on safe haven demand.
With only one trading day left in 2018, the price of gold has so far beaten the S&P 500 Index for the month of December, the fourth quarter and the year. What might surprise some readers is that it’s also outperformed the market for the century.
Watch out indeed, for 2017’s December low was violated in February 2018 and the rest, as they say, is history. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see what the December Low Indicator says in 2019.
As global markets increasingly ponder how long US economic growth can continue, Franklin Equity Group’s Ed Lugo says he’s looking for potential investment opportunities outside the United States. He explains why he sees opportunities in Europe and Asia, despite concerns about Brexit negotiations and a slowing Chinese economy.
Global markets are jittery as we start the new year with the same volatility drivers in place as last year. In our view, it's time for your clients to expect and prepare for periodic bouts of volatility.
Gold is back! So far this quarter, the yellow metal has crushed the market, returning around 6 percent versus negative 15 percent for the S&P 500 Index. Gold miners, though, have been the top performer, climbing a phenomenal 12.3 percent.
In spite of its recent track record, value is not dead. It’s just been wounded a few times since the financial crisis, as investors favored growth-oriented segments of the market amidst easy monetary policy.
Commodity traders appear excited about gold again as stocks are on pace for their worst year since 2008, and their worst December since 1931.
Early last week we published our collective 2019 outlook summary and today’s report will put some more visual meat on the bones of that summary.
Recently, our email box has been filled up with questions like this one from one particularly bright Raymond James financial advisor, namely, Michael McCormick of the venerable Chicago-based money management firm of McCormick Retirement Group, who wrote, and we responded...
One of the most remarkable trends in the financial markets has been the decline of publicly traded U.S. equities. About half as many stocks are listed as there were 25 years ago. What is driving this phenomenon and what are the implications for investors?
Recent fundamental changes in the leveraged finance markets mean that actively managing credit exposure is more important than ever.
It is important to remember, that “Risk” is simply the function of how much you will lose when you are wrong in your assumptions. 2018 has been a year of predictions gone horribly wrong.
Wheaton Precious Metals announced that it reached a settlement with the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA), the equivalent of the IRS. “We expect the stock to react positively to the news given the tax dispute was an overhang,” Credit Suisse analysts shared in a note to investors today.
The trade conflict and Fed rate policy are buffeting markets at a time China was already grappling with debt challenges at home. But the volatility may be masking good economic fundamentals globally, reform efforts in China, and attractive investment opportunities.
Investing in municipal bonds is riskier than many investors may perceive, with last year’s $74 billion default by Puerto Rico providing a reminder.
Looking around, we don’t see many people who used to be in this business. Maybe they just couldn’t take being wrong. Or, maybe their clients couldn’t take their claiming they were always right. Or, maybe they got tired of issuing lots of predictions while, at the same time, watching the stock market going nowhere this year.
If you followed some of my posts from two years ago, you might recall that I was in favor of Brexit. I still am. One of British voters’ main grievances was the heavy burden of European Union (EU) regulations, many of which are decided by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
IF “Santa” is going to visit “Broad & Wall” this year, it will most likely occur between the 10th through the 17th trading days of the month. Such would equate to Friday, December 14th through Wednesday, December 26th.
Does ESG/SRI investing lead to higher, lower or about-the-same risk-adjusted returns? Abundant academic literature on the topic has emerged in the last eight years, but there’s still no consensus about whether responsible investing is a good bet for your clients.
It is often surprising to find so few investors and financial professionals that are aware of the possibilities and advantages of borrowing on margin. Some consider margin taboo, or do not have a clear understanding of benefits, risks, drawbacks or mechanics.
Stocks plunged this week on concerns that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are not running as smoothly as initially thought. Adding to the uncertainty was news of the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Chinese tech giant Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone manufacturer.
Investors should seek opportunities with unique sources of risk and return that improve the efficient frontier by providing diversification benefits. However, understand that some investments exhibit negative skewness and high kurtosis while sacrificing the benefits of daily liquidity.
Collective Investment Trusts (CITs) have been gaining momentum in the retirement space, and for good reason. Jason Colarossi, vice president, national retirement strategist, of Franklin Templeton’s Defined Contribution Division, outlines what CITs are and how they have evolved.
Municipal bond yields moved higher in 2018 and seem likely to continue moving up in 2019 if market expectations for further interest-rate increases play out.
RIAs must grow sustainably in order to achieve the scale needed to deploy the latest technology systems and build out a centralized infrastructure. Relying wholly or primarily on referrals is a foolhardy strategy.
For years we have quoted Benjamin Graham’s book The Intelligent Investor, which Warren Buffet has said is the best book ever written on investing. The operative quote from said book is “The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” He closes that thought by saying, “All good portfolio management begins, and ends, with this premise.”
Brandon Rakszawski is Senior ETF Product Manager at VanEck. In this interview, he discusses the newly introduced VanEck Vectors Morningstar Durable Dividend ETF (DURA).
Martin Kremenstein is senior managing director and head of retirement products and ETFs at Nuveen, a TIAA company. In this interview, he discusses the latest trends and innovations in ESG/SRI investing.
We describe a spending-power measure that has an excellent track record predicting the economy. As financial markets struggle to regain their nine-year-long buoyancy, our measure bears watching.
California is currently battling two devastating wildfires in California. The Camp Fire, located in Butte County (north of Sacramento) has so far burned 135,000 acres, destroyed 7,600 residences and caused 71 fatalities, making it the deadliest wildfire in California's history.
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
Old Big Red sprung a leak a while back. Many of you are familiar with Big Red, but there are a few of you who might need an introduction. Big Red is my 18-year-old Chevy Silverado 2500 HD. I realize this may not be the type of vehicle driven by the majority of bankers, money managers, financial advisors, or brokers...
Years ago we studied the tactics of Jesse Livermore, along with a number of other stock market operators, and have found many of those strategies to be just as valid today as they were decades ago.
We've managed client assets in floating-rate corporate loan strategies since 1989. Our longest-running fund will surpass its 30-year mark in 2019. Along the way, we've developed deep expertise in this asset class. Today we manage more than $45 billion in floating-rate corporate loan assets, for clients all around the globe and in every discernible delivery format.
Conventional market wisdom two years ago didn’t look right for long, as gains in industries seen as politically favored faded while one sector expected to suffer quickly rebounded.
The Leonid meteor shower hit its zenith over the weekend, and you didn’t even need a telescope to see it. You did need a warm blanket, but all you had to do was lay down on your back to enjoy a great show.
The sweeping tax overhaul signed by President Donald Trump this year has many positive aspects for investors, while also creating both opportunities and challenges for financial advisors who use tax-efficient strategies.
Index returns and traditional active management may fall short, so PIMCO StocksPLUS Small takes a different path to seek small cap alpha.
When it comes to US high-yield bank loans, we don’t mince words: we think the risk rarely justifies the potential reward.
Neil J. Hennessy is portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Hennessy Funds, where he personally manages or co-manages six of the firm’s funds. In this interview, he discusses his outlook for the market and the economy, and why he thinks Japanese and energy stocks are exceptionally attractive.
Corporate bonds offer incredibly poor prospects under any scenario, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. If rates rise, prices will drop quickly because their durations are between 7 and 10 years. Falling rates are no better, he said, because they would be accompanied by a bear market in stocks with effects that would extend to corporate bonds.
The Federal Reserve has three key objectives for monetary policy: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices and moderating long- term interest rates. Regardless of what many observers may say, the Fed generally is not concerned about increased stock market volatility.
Advisors should look more closely at their clients’ investments as well as portfolio design from a liquidity perspective. Investors, particularly those with long-term goals, may be paying for daily liquidity they don’t need. By ignoring liquidity premiums, advisors are not maximizing the funds of their clients.
Invesco research reveals a disconnect between market expectations and portfolio allocations in market-cap-weighted funds.
