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Bad Trade?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last week I asked myself the obligatory question, Did I make a bad trading decision by targeting mid-July through mid-August (with the date specific of July 19th) as the timing point for the first meaningful decline of the year? The reason for said question was that every time the S&P 500 (SPX/1691.65) sold off last week, buyers showed up to save the day. And, the operative word is trading because that potential downside strategy was merely a short-term tactical call.
Economic & Capital Market Summary
We are approaching the five year anniversary of the beginning of the Financial Crisis. By this time in 2008 we had already experienced the complete seizure of the Auction Rate Preferred securities market and the takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase. In August of 2008, we would see the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the government takeover of AIG. We stand here today, shoulders slumped, and heads bowed mourning the lack of real progress in addressing the structural problems that are impeding sustained economic growth and private credit expansion.
Detroit A Guest Commentary and Noise from DC
by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis,
This week I bring you a guest commentary from a friend and colleague, Josh Laurito. His blog post, Why Detroits Bankruptcy is a Bigger Deal Than You Think may rankle a few of you and cause others to challenge Joshs points. That is what he does so well he thinks outside of the box and offers context not necessarily shared by folks who are all munis, all the time. It is precisely these reasons that I encourage you to read on. In my years of knowing Josh, I have always found his thinking and approach to be insightful and, at times, a bit different.
Royal Babies and Economic Growth
On a recent business trip to Europe, we noticedanecdotallya lack of hope in the economic future of Europe. There is a good reason for the lack of hope. Hope, we believe, comes in the form of new life. When all of the austerity being practiced in developed nations around the world is pretty much done, something else needs to happen for economic growth to take hold. At Smead Capital Management, we believe developed economies need rebirth and the birth last week of a son to the Royal family is a watershed event.
Who Let the Ferrari Out of the Garage?
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
With just three trading days left in the month, July is in the running for the title of least volatile month of the year, with the Standard & Poors 500-stock index averaging moves of just 0.39% this month through Thursdays close. That is lower than the 0.41% and 0.42% averages of January and March, respectively, when stocks were grinding slowly, but steadily higher.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So now Prez Obama is sharing his two cents about the economy. After weeks of endless babble from the Fed Chief and his partners in crime about the economy and the longevity of the bond buying program, O is now making job creation his number one priority. Is anyone listening to his urgent messages (certainly no one in DC)? Investors (at least those not on vacation) were less than impressed with the less than impressive earnings of the week, though markets held their own.
Summer Quarterly Commentary
Recently the Fed indicated it may begin returning control over market pricing and interest rates to Adam Smiths invisible hand... and borderline chaos erupted. The episode began mid-day May 22nd as Congress questioned Fed Chairman Bernanke and suddenly the cat was out of the bag and a paradigm shift ensued. Bond funds suffered some of their largest weekly redemptions on record. Rates spiked and markets swooned around the world through late June as investors assumed the worst.
ECB's Attitude to Portugal Raises Questions about Bond-Purchase Programme
by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein,
Political upheaval in Portugal has thrown the spotlight on the European Central Banks (ECBs) bond-purchase programme, known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs). Many are asking whether the ECB is ready to support the market if yields rise further. And if not, why not?
Average Gas Price Could Hit $4 by Labor Day... Or Not
With the recent jump in gasoline prices, several energy analysts are forecasting that prices at the pump will top $4 a gallon (national average) later this summer. On the other hand, some analysts feel that gas prices will only go up another 5-10 cents a gallon just ahead, and then move lower in the fall. Of course, no one knows for sure. Today, well take a look at whats driving gas prices higher.
Quarterly Review and Outlook
The secular low in bond yields has yet to be recorded. This assessment for a continuing pattern of lower yields in the quarters ahead is clearly a minority view, as the recent selling of all types of bond products attest. The rise in long term yields over the last several months was accelerated by the recent Federal Reserve announcement that it would be tapering its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This has convinced many bond market participants that the low in long rates is in the past.
Active ETF Market Share Update & Weekly Market Review
This past week, total assets in the active ETF space increased by over $60 million. The top 3 categories (Global Bond, Short Term Bond and Foreign Bond) all saw increases in AUM. The Alternative Income category fell in AUM, after weeks of only going up.
Stocks and Bonds Both Again Rally as Bernanke Soothes
by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments,
Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes congressional testimony got more headlines, but Detroits long-anticipated formal filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy was by far the more important development. Billions of dollars of losses will be imposed on general obligation bondholders and/or retired employees.
You Thought It Was Hot Outside...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
You thought it was hot outside? Wait until you see the weekly cash inflows into U.S. Equities...
Funds that hold only U.S. stocks gained $15.58 billion in new cash, the most since June 2008. ETFs that hold domestic equities attracted $12.45 billion of those gains.
Risk Communicates Signals that Something Important is at Stake
The equity markets hit new all-time highs again this past quarter. However, we believe this rally is largely due to Ben Bernanke?s policy of Quantitative Easing (QE) which presently equates to the purchase of $85 billion in U.S. government debt every month. Through the Federal Reserve?s policies our government has effectively printed trillions of dollars since the financial crisis began, arguably inflating a host of asset prices including the stock market.
Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Trimming its forecast for global growth, the International Monetary Funds mid-year assessment of the world economy highlighted the slowdown in emerging economies such as Russia and recessionary conditions in the Euro-zone. Still, the recent surge in factory production and rise in new orders brought a whiff of optimism to emerging European markets such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, which have been reeling under a prolonged downturn due to weak demand from the Euro-zone.
Can China Give Credit Where It's Due?
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett,
June was a rough month for Chinas economy and its financial markets. Old concerns about sustainable growth came to the fore, as reports surfaced and resurfaced, recounting liquidity shortages, misdirected and excessive credit growth, gyrating interest rates, and signs of weakness in manufacturing. Commentators and analysts alike voiced fears of a Chinese collapse on a par with Americas subprime crisis. For the second time in as many years, several in the global financial community have prophesized a hard landing for Chinas economy.
Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Moderate growth is anticipated in Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that economic expansion in the oil exporting countries has slowed down due to subdued global oil demand. While oil importing countries are expected to make a slight recovery, nations in transition are facing complex socio-political issues, which could further delay their recovery.
How to Catch an Investment Wave'? Get in the Water!
by Joe Kringdon of Pioneer Investments,
At the beginning of the summer, I always start singing (or humming) some Beach Boys song as my own personal soundtrack to this glorious and seemingly carefree season. The song “Catch a Wave” has particular significance not because I’m a surfer, but because one of my investing mentors once used surfing as analogy for me.
Print the Legend
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
The Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman tragedy has become one of those transcendent events that dominates the national discourse and throws light on dimly lit aspects of our society. Obviously, the case touches most closely on issues of race relations, media culture, and the politicization of the justice system. It also reveals how preconceived emotional commitments to a narrative can consistently trump demonstrable facts. These tendencies are also present in the polarized discussion about the persistent weakness of the U.S. economy.
European Equities: Beyond the Headlines
Its fairly easy for investors to find reasons to shun European equities. While struggles in some Eurozone periphery countries continue to make eye-catching headlines, the broader story of Europe is far less fatalistic, according to Mutual Series Executive Vice President Philippe Brugere-Trelat, who manages the Mutual European Fund, Mutual Global Discovery Fund and Mutual International Fund. When it comes to Europe, he says one shouldnt throw out the baby with the bathwater, so to speak.
Opportunity in Europe
by Team of Neuberger Berman,
A striking feature of this years global stock market rally is that international markets have significantly trailed U.S. stocks. Nevertheless, Neuberger Bermans Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) recently made the contrarian call of upgrading its view for international developed markets, particularly Europe. In this Strategic Spotlight, we provide an update on the European economy and lay out some reasons for optimism despite the dour growth outlook.
The Death of Disasterism
by Steven Vincent of BullBear Trading,
From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible revised start date of June 2012), ending the sideways secular bear market that started in 2000. Here are the basic components of that thesis through the last report.
Closed-end Fund Review
Following a quarter in which the average closed-end fund was up 4.31%, the universe of 595 funds was lower by 5.60% on a share price total return basis during the second quarter (both figures from Morningstar). For many funds, most of the weakness occurred during the month of June (when the average fund was lower by 6.09% on a share price total return basis, according to Morningstar).
What's Next for the U.S. Dollar?
by Nic Pifer of Columbia Management,
Global government bonds have performed poorly so far this year. Year to date through July 13, the Barclays Global Treasury Index, which covers 30 investment grade domestic government bond markets, is down 5.5% in unhedged U.S. dollar terms. The same index hedged back to U.S. dollars is down 0.6% year to date. This difference in returns highlights a key point.
ASEANSeeking Further Integration
by In-Bok Song of Matthews Asia,
Southeast Asia is pushing ahead with an economic initiative analogous to the E.U. called the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The 10-member bloc is striving to make this partnershipwhich envisions creating a single market and production base and developing closer economic ties both within the region and the broader global economya reality by 2015. In-Bok Song, takes a look at the benefits and hurdles that may be expected in this lengthy process for further integration of such aspects as liberalized trade, investment, skilled labor and free flow of capital.
Second Quarter 2013 Newsletter
We wrote after the strong first quarter to expect volatility to increase with stocks remaining the preferred asset class and that is largely what happened in the second quarter. Almost all risk assets wobbled after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinted at a possible tapering of quantitative easing later this year. Regardless, most domestic stocks did well in the quarter.
Fed's Gobbledygook - What Do They Really Mean?
Recent communications from the Fed and comments by Chairman Bernanke cast a great deal of uncertainty on the equity and bond markets in late June. Specifically, Bernankes remarks in his press conference on June 19 where he discussed ending its program of quantitative easing prompted a huge global selloff in the stock and bond markets.
Canadian Secular View: Into Darkness?
Many investors are buying Canadian federal government bonds, shorting Canadian bank stocks and selling Canadian dollars in anticipation of a prolonged downturn. While significant risks are clearly facing the Canadian economy, our baseline forecast does not justify positioning our portfolios for a prolonged Canadian downturn.
How a Teenager and Skype Deepened Client Relationships
by Dan Richards,
Successful advisors are always on the lookout for cost-effective ways to deepen relationships with top clients. Last week, an advisor told me how he hired his son for the summer, and the two created an impressive offering that exceeded the expectations of his key clients.
The Great Rotation Continues Forward...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke grabbed the mic on Wednesday and gave a performance that garnered a standing ovation from Stock, Bond, and Commodity investors. Only U.S. Dollar longs went home dragging their programs and spilling their popcorn. As a result, U.S. equity markets ended the week at all-time highs as stocks remained the darlings of the asset classes.
Making Sense of the Bond Market
by Phelps McIlvaine of Saturna Capital,
The great challenge for investors and advisers today is to forecast where interest rates and bond prices will be once the influence of radical central bank intervention dissipates. Measures of inflation expectations are declining, and deflation remains the dominant influence on interest rates. In assessing whether to trim bond allocations, it is important to revisit the reasons for selecting a particular asset allocation before modifying or abandoning it.
Commodities 2013 Halftime Report: A Time to Mine for Opportunity?
It was a challenging first half of the year for most commodities, with only two resources we track on our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns rising in value. Natural gas and oil rose 6.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while silver lost a third of its value and gold lost a quarter of its price from the beginning of the year.
Calming Downand Changing Focus
Markets are calming and investors seem to be focusing on fundamentals againa nice change from recent history. The bar is relatively low for earnings season but focus will be on the commentary surrounding releases. We believe more sideways movement in both US equities and Treasury yields could prevail over the next couple of months, with summer months muting action; but remain optimistic about stocks longer-term. Likewise, Japan could tread water until new elections are held, but we believe the eurozone provides opportunities that should be looked into at the expense of investments in China.
Pacific Basin Market Overview June 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Equity markets in Asia ended generally lower in the second quarter of 2013 due to concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserves apparent shift towards a more balanced monetary policy stance following Chairman Bernankes statements suggesting a tapering of its asset purchase program.
The Germans Deserve Credit for Extending Credit
by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments,
Germanys government agreed to (indirectly, via guarantees) provide Spains government-run ICO development banks with the funding to make up to 800 million of low-interest loans to small and medium-sized businesses.
ENERGY MLPs: A Suitable and Sustainable Asset Class
Greater capitalization. More liquidity. The energy MLP market has grown steadily, with good reason: our constant demand for energy. While oil prices go up and down, volume has stayed consistent. Production is increasing. And the infrastructure is needed to support it. Add some risk, and you’ve got an investment which could fit in a diversified portfolio.
Assessing Healthcare Expenses in Retirement
In the wake of the Affordable Care Act and its accompanying deluge of regulation, advisors are helping baby boomers prepare for retirement in more ways than ever before. But our industry continues to overlook a significant threat to clients continued comfortable lifestyles: out-of-pocket healthcare costs.
Rosebud?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Produced in 1941, the movie Citizen Kane is heralded as one of the best movies ever made. It was one of the first to depict the American Dream, and materialism, as less than desirable and therefore causes one to contemplate what actually constitutes a life? Indeed, as a child the central character, Charles Foster Kane, is living in rural Colorado in a boarding house run by his mother (Mary).
Obamacare and Stocks
For much of the past four years, we have felt like psychologists who constantly must help hypochondriacs over their fear of one thing after another. There is no reason to remind everyone of the list its been endless, but the stock market and the economy have moved consistently higher despite these fears.
Results 9,251–9,300
of 10,168 found.
