Most of us have been taught that diversification provides benefits. We’re told there are assets that can be held alongside equities to smooth out the twists and turns of the market.

While agricultural best practices have moved on to other resources, the Guano Wars teach us that nations are willing to go to great lengths to sustain their crops.

Faster productivity growth lifts earnings, improves the long-run fiscal arithmetic, and allows the economy to run stronger without recreating the inflation regime of 2022. Historically, markets are slow to recognize when the supply side of the economy has improved. This time should be no different. The productivity story is more durable than this week’s Iran developments, which is dominate trading over the near term.

With apologies if this is the tenth investment piece you’ve read this week about the impact of the Iran War on asset markets, but we wanted to share our thoughts on what’s going on with our investors. First a recap. The S&P 500 is down 5.4% since the February 28, 2026 start of the Iran War.

As 2026 unfolds, market leadership is shifting in ways that go beyond the usual sector rotation. While AI-driven growth fueled recent gains, rising capital expenditures, energy demands, and valuation pressure are forcing a reassessment across both public and private markets. At the same time, economic data—particularly beneath headline job growth—suggests a more uneven expansion than many expected.

Since hostilities began in the Middle East three weeks ago, I’ve urged investors to stay calm and resist the temptation to panic-sell. While I still stand by that advice, it’s important to point out that this conflict isn’t resolving as quickly as initially expected.

There is little doubt that something unprecedented is happening in the world of AI, corporate investment, and equity returns. While AI may reshape the global economy, the surrounding investment cycle is still governed by the same macroeconomic and sentiment-driven forces that have shaped previous technological innovation and expansion periods.

The key swing factor remains oil prices. If the conflict ends within this window, we still expect only limited impacts on our economic and asset‑class outlooks.

The Securities and Exchange Commission should focus on enabling retail investor access to innovation rather than limiting products through merit-based judgments, according to Commissioner Hester Peirce. In a discussion with Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at TMX VettaFi, during the Exchange conference in Las Vegas, Peirce shared insight from her term at the SEC and examined the agency’s role moving forward.

Let me lay out the case for what should be the answer. Today we will explore how long this condition could last and what we can do about. I think it will make for interesting letter.

The artificial intelligence (AI) trade that has dominated equity markets in recent years is showing signs of fragility. As investors reexamine the scale of the AI infrastructure build-out and optimistic assumptions around AI adoption, a group of “old-economy” sectors is quietly reasserting itself.

Markets have already priced the most visible consequences of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged, gasoline prices are moving higher, and inflation concerns have re-emerged. The initial market reaction has been the most visible but least revealing.

In February, market sentiment was shaped by escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions and sector-specific selloffs driven by concerns about AI’s potential disruption to existing business models.

When you start investing, your advisor builds a portfolio aligned with your personal investment objectives. Your target allocation takes into consideration your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon, among other things. Unless something in your life changes, your portfolio should continue to align with your objectives.

Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine provided a candid assessment of the Federal Reserve's current trajectory and fixed income at Exchange.

In practice, many advisors use SMAs alongside ETFs, not instead of them—combining the scalability of ETFs with the customization and tax management SMAs can provide.

Some forms of technical analysis are often too much “inside baseball” for many investors. However, the concept of moving averages is one of the most important technical indicators and an easier one to grasp.

Last week, on March 19th, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since May 2025. The first instinct is to panic as media headlines talk about bear markets and financial crisis events. However, as we will explore today, the data says it depends entirely on the type of break: sustained or brief.

Proposals to engineer secondary trading in private assets, often championed by vocal critics of public market liquidity, have gained renewed momentum. For some, enhanced tradability is viewed as a remedy to growing unease over the absence of transparent, real‑time valuation signals in private portfolios.

Many investors think about getting out of the stock market when it gets bumpy. But history shows that staying invested over the long term has resulted in positive gains.

The past three weeks have been unsettling, and not just for markets, but for anyone paying attention to what is happening in the world.

Gold was the highest-returning major asset class of 2025, advancing approximately 64% on the year. Its appreciation was supported by multiple reinforcing factors: elevated geopolitical uncertainty driving safe-haven demand, U.S. dollar weakness, sustained central bank accumulation, and strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs.

The ongoing Middle East war has once again underscored oil’s strategic importance. Vital resources warrant buffers against disruptions in the form of a strategic reserve.

Global markets stood on edge as the conflict in Iran upended energy markets and muddied the outlook for the global economy. Interest rate markets repriced as market participants processed the notion that hostilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected.

The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX), which measures implied volatility in oil ETF options, estimates the expected volatility of crude oil prices over the next 30 days. The higher the reading, the more oil prices are expected to bounce around.

History made: Dimensional launches first active ETF share class. Access 40 years of micro-cap expertise in a tax-efficient ETF wrapper.

Muni bonds have been a strong performer so far in 2026, benefitting from an important transition to the ETF wrapper from mutual funds.

“Smoke on the Water, Fire in the Sky,” the iconic Deep Purple refrain, endures because it captures a familiar dynamic: threats appear on the horizon before the heat arrives.

As expected, there was no rate cut at today’s meeting, but changes to economic projections and comments at the press conference gave some light into how the Fed is processing political and geopolitical events, and how those events are shaping the Fed’s outlook.

A properly functioning Strait of Hormuz holds the keys to clarity around the growth, inflation, and market shock that has stemmed from the war in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in March at 3.5%–3.75%, a widely expected outcome as policymakers navigated an unusually complex macro backdrop.

Silver had a phenomenal 2025, more than doubling from around $30/oz to above $70 by late December, and the rally continued into the new year.

Private credit is a key pillar of debt capital formation alongside public credit markets and bank balance sheets. But an important part of its value proposition—to borrowers and end investors—is its illiquidity relative to public markets. That distinction is by design, and we think it should stay that way.

The Fed simultaneously needs to hold interest rates higher (and arguably raise them) to deal with increasing inflation pressure while also needing to cut interest rates due to the massive Debt Black Hole warping the economy.

Economic dislocations create opportunities. While many market watchers are seriously concerned about the microshifts in markets and stocks, others may see the opportunities that emerge when oil prices spike.

Engaging with client family members may seem tricky, but it can start with simple questions to the client first. In fact, asking your client about the personalities and desires of their loved ones may be a way of deepening your understanding of your client’s financial needs.

The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. The 'dot plot' still projects a single rate cut this year, and the Fed sees slightly stronger economic growth and inflation.

For ultra-high-net-worth families, the landscape of wealth stewardship is evolving. As the largest intergenerational transfer of capital in history unfolds, women are increasingly shaping the future of family wealth—not only as inheritors and beneficiaries, but also as creators of wealth, entrepreneurs, investors, and leaders guiding multigenerational strategy.

The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a second straight meeting as policymakers weigh slowing growth, persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.1%, and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East.

The wealth transfer didn’t create a new problem; it exposed one advisors have postponed for decades.

China’s underappreciated equity market and energy resilience amid current geopolitical tensions warrants consideration, according to Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Dina Ting. In this article, she discusses the different factors that underpin her views.

Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon discusses how US small caps remain market leaders even as volatility and uncertainty are on the rise.

Despite gold’s sideways performance in recent weeks, UBS still expects gold to gain 20 percent from its current price this year.

Outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) relationships have evolved dramatically. What once teed up primarily as a solution for smaller institutions seeking a roadmap to improving their governance, strategy and execution is now being adopted by much larger asset owners.

Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy “safe-haven” investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions.

Rob Arnott, founder & chairman of Research Affiliates, took part in a session at Exchange 2026 to discuss this, his views on growth opportunities, and more. Roxanna Islam, CFA, CAIA, head of sector & industry research at VettaFi, moderated the session.

The recent 30% surge in crude oil prices has led many observers—drawing on memories of past energy crises—to immediately warn of recession. That may ultimately prove correct, but we’re cautious about narrative-driven, back-of-the-envelope predictions.

In this commentary, I’m not going to try to predict any outcomes or long-term effects but rather want to cover how markets have reacted so far and highlight some opportunities that have been created.

Investigation of Federal Reserve chair hits an obstacle, while the Department of Homeland Security remains shut down amid funding standoff.