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ProVise Bullets
Last month, a Wells Fargo/Gallup survey of non-retired investors showed just how lingering the hangover is from the financial crisis five years ago. Much like the Great Depression financially scared their great grandparents and grandparents, the Great Recession is impacting investors expectations about the future. 41% indicated they were concerned about another global crisis during their retirement years, and 28% were convinced they would have a lower standard of living during retirement.
The U.S. Can't Default On Its Debt. Right?
The Treasury Secretary has warned that his agency will exhaust the extraordinary measures it has used to fund the government on October 17. On the Sunday talk shows, he warned of catastrophic consequences if Congress doesnt raise the statutory debt ceiling by then. So, over the next nine days, youll be hearing ominous forecasts of what will happen if the US defaults on its nearly $17 trillion national debt, or even some of it. Sound familiar?
The Market May Be Signaling a Return to a More Typical Recovery
by Whitney George of The Royce Funds,
Despite the Feds indecision about whether or not to taper, we see evidence that business activity is normalizing and the global economy is getting healthier. Co-CIO, Managing Director, and Portfolio Manager Whitney George talks about how economically sensitive sectors have begun to benefit from rising rates in the small-cap rally, how recent news coming out of China has affected certain portfolio investments, where he is currently seeing long-term opportunities, and stocks in which he has high confidence.
Maybe Mark Twain Said It Best...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
President Barack Obama and his top economic officials appear to be pushing for some market unrest to exert pressure on the GOP to throw in the towel. Asked in his CNBC interview Wednesday whether Wall Street is right to remain calm over the standoff, Mr. Obama replied: No.
The Only Story in Town
Its strange times in the United States. The government is partially shut down and isnt releasing any statistics. Even John Muir wouldnt be allowed to hike in a national park. All the while, the President and the Treasury Secretary are predicting an economic calamity for the US (and maybe the globe) if the debt ceiling isnt raised. Yet, they refuse to negotiate to prevent that from happen.
Introducing the Tortoise Economy
All things considered, large U.S. companies that operate globally appear to be particularly attractive right now. Because many of these companies are generating significant portions of their sales outside the U.S., investors are effectively getting some international exposure with what I consider to be more-quantifiable risks.
The Fire Fueling Gold
For patient, long-term investors looking for a great portfolio diversifier, a moderate weighting in gold and gold stocks may be just the answer. And, today, when looking across the gold mining industry, you?ll find plenty of companies that have paid attractive dividends, many higher than the 5-year government yield.
The Math is Pretty Straightforward...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Congress and the White House must be pretty fired up that D&D2 started filming last week. The new movie might be the only thing more stupid than our elected leaders failing to negotiate and reach a deal. Most everyone either wants to spend our tax dollars like drunken professional athletes or hold our economy and financial markets hostage via a government shutdown and failure to raise the debt ceiling.
The Key Succession Issues for an Advisory Practice
by Bob Veres,
Succession planning has moved to the top of the practice management priority list for tens of thousands of advisory firms. As the average age of founder/advisors creeps ever closer to traditional retirement age, the profession is asking itself a lot of hard questions about how to keep these businesses alive ? and take care of clients ? after the founder retires.
Invest to Your Full Potential Even Under Pressure
In times of extreme pressure, athletes, students and investors have one thing in common: they occasionally choke. Whether its Rick Perry forgetting the third item on his list during the Republican debate or a favorite basketball player missing the basket in the playoffs, when stakes are high, people can fail to perform to their full potential.
The Curse of the Magazine Cover Indicator
Its fitting that last week former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson came out to speak about debt issues during a month when Time published a bull on the cover of its magazine. The bull is a symbol of a strong and positive stock market, but it seems whenever a U.S. company makes the cover of a publication, the company is in trouble and that its run is at an end.
Weekly Market Commentary
Depending upon where you reside, or on which side of the issues you fall, it was a good week last week. We averted a military strike on Syria by the U.S., at least temporarily; we had reasonable adjustments to economic growth statistics; and most made some money in their portfolios. While cyclical dynamics are relatively benign, the broader secular outlook continues to build a solid foundation for recovery.
Dow Changes as a Contrary Indicator
The folks who select the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) came out with their latest changes on Monday, September 9, 2013. They removed Bank of America (BAC), Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Alcoa (AA) from the DJIA. Added to the index were Visa (V), Nike (NKE) and Goldman Sachs (GS). At Smead Capital Management, we are always looking for important psychological clues to human behavior as it pertains to the popularity of common stocks.
Tidbits Foreclosure, BK Signs and John Mauldin's Unrealistic Expectations
by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis,
Some tidbits to start and then on to an outstanding guest commentary from the renowned John Mauldin. Our tidbits focus on Foreclosures and some insights around our review of some bankruptcy warning signs published by S&P Capital IQ. Our guest commentary, Unrealistic Expectations (I might have called it Unrealistic Assumptions), focuses on the daunting reality of underfunded pension plans.
Russia is Tough to Love, Easier to Hate, Hard for Investors to Ignore. Here's Why
Russian President Vladimir Putin created a stir recently when he shared his thoughts with Americans in an op-ed printed in The New York Times. According to The Times, very few pieces written by heads of state have been published by the paper and very few received the attention Putin attracted.
Opportunity Out of Uncertainty: Finding Investment Ideas in a Rising Market
by Jay Kaplan of The Royce Funds,
Portfolio Manager and Principal Jay Kaplan talks about investing in a slow-growth, high-price environment and discusses where we are in the current retail cycle, companies in which he has high confidence, and his experience with a long-term holding.
Check or Checkmate...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
The White Houses goal is to persuade Congress to authorize a limited military strike against Syria to punish it for a deadly chemical weapons attack. But after a frenetic week of wall-to-wall intelligence briefings, dozens of phone calls, and hours of hearings with senior members of Mr. Obamas war council, more and more lawmakers, Republican and Democrat, are lining up to vote against the president.
Weekly Market Commentary
The Syrian war crisis has prompted another moment in time for the markets to reflect and digest both the near-term and long term consequences of our response from a political and economic perspective. Whats most worrisome is the precedent of previous actions the U.S. has taken in global conflicts, and the potential catalysts for negative consequences for the markets.
Will Gold Follow Its Seasonal Pattern This Year?
There are factors beyond Syria this week driving gold. Thats the Love Trade. This group gives gold as gifts for loved ones during important holidays and festivals. This is the time of the year that we are in the midst of right now. Historically, September has been golds best month of the year. Looking at more than four decades of monthly returns, the precious metal has seen its biggest increase this month, averaging 2.3 percent.
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Good economic news in developed markets has been overshadowed lately by the bad (burgeoning Asian currency crisis) and the ugly (Syria). Unwinding central bank support from the markets will be arduous; it is already contributing to destabilization of certain emerging market currencies. News out of Washington this autumn tapering, Fed leadership and the debt ceiling has the potential to add volatility and uncertainty. The U.S. equity market has been the place to be this year, but diversification remains key.
Is China Past Its Manufacturing Prime?
by Sammy Suzuki of AllianceBernstein,
China has been an incredible export engine of manufactured goods over the past decade and the central player of the BRICs era. But mounting competition from other countries is gradually pulling production away from China. How should investors proceed?
Seventh Inning Stretch
by William Gross of PIMCO,
They say that reality is whatever you wish it to be and I suppose that could be true. Just wish it, as Jiminy Cricket used to say, and it will come true. Realitys relativity came to mind the other day as I was opening a box of Cracker Jacks for an afternoon snack. Thats right I said Cracker Jacks! I cant count the number of people who have told me during the seventh inning stretch at a baseball game to make sure I sing Cracker Jack (without the S) because thats what the song says. I care not. No one ever says buy me some potato chip or some pea
Fixed Income - Where to Now?
by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent,
Since the end of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), investors moved aggressively into fixed income asset classes. They were quickly rewarded in the years following the crisis with a combination of falling interest rates and tighter credit spreads, which led to positive absolute returns. The easy money in fixed income is gone, however, and now is the time for careful asset class selection.
So Step Right Up, Pick Your Favorites...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
So with the backing of The White House, the State Department, the Senate & The Economist, the United States is going to launch Tomahawks on Syrian targets. The President did say that he will let Congress vote on a strike, but both he, Secretary Kerry and Senator Reid let it be known that they will be lighting fuses soon. So as a refresher as to who is supporting whom in Syria, the chart below will both assist and thoroughly confuse you...
Getting Prospects to Respond to Your Emails
by Dan Richards,
The chances that a prospect will open an email from someone they dont know are slim. Advisors who rely on mass emails are increasingly challenged to find creative ways to get their message through. But a few advisors who are succeeding in attracting clients via email invitations told me of five ways they get past inbox filters.
As Uncertainty Abounds in September, Sideways Consolidation Continues
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
Global equities struggled last week, with the S&P 500 declining -1.39%.1 Volatility rose from geopolitical uncertainty over the military strike in Syria.2 Oil prices spiked with concerns about escalation and tension but retreated due to dampened international support and expectations that a military campaign would be short-lived. The U.S. Treasury announced its borrowing capacity will be exhausted by mid-October, exposing contentious fiscal battles. Reports mentioned former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers may be leading the succession race for Fed Chairman.
A Couple of Thoughts on Decoupling
by Adam Peck of Heartland Advisors,
As equity markets have pushed toward new highs this year, one of the worries lingering in the background has been the potential impact of Chinas economic slowdown on the U.S. weakening demand from that country, the thinking has gone, could hurt the broad range of companies that export goods to China.
Murder's Morality
by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational,
There are plenty of things that might upset Johnny “The Basin Street Butcher” Martorano. Perhaps having murdered 20 people in the course of his career as a mob hitman doesn’t sit so well decades later. Well, no, this is not it, Martorano recently recounted his murders as part of Whitey Bulger’s trial with a perfectly flat affect, much to the displeasure of his victims’ families. It seems guilt doesn’t keep him up at night.
5 China Charts That Look Bullish for Commodities
Over the past few months, investors have seen better economic data coming out of Europe. Consumer confidence in the continent has been rising, manufacturing data is improving and the fiscal situation is on the mend. Now, China appears to be strengthening as well, which could signal better times ahead. Below are five charts that look bullish for China and commodities. While not meant to be comprehensive, they do point to areas where investors might want to pay close attention.
Trickle-Up Economics
Major magazines have a history of putting a topic on their cover at the end of a long-term trend. For example, The Death of Equities was a Business Week cover in late 1979, near the end of a miserable stretch in the US stock market. Times recent cover story, The Childfree Life, got us wondering about the economics of childbearing in the US? Does Times cover mark the end of a trend? Can the US economy succeed without homegrown population increases? Will economic success driven by the current demographics in the US trickle down to unemployed blue collar
Macro View...In Microwave Time (Part 2 of 2)
Todays blog post picks up where last weeks left off by updating the 13 key points for investors I laid out in an article in RIABiz.com on January 14 of this year. These were and are the most significant data and forces for investors to track today, to pursue long-term growth and sidestep major losses. As I did last week, I will also note whether I think each point is a positive or negative (or other) for investors now that we are about 3/5 of the way through 2013. The six areas covered last week were generally positive. Lets see about the final seven on the list
China's Government Can't Stop the Bust
On a recent trip to Europe we participated in a forum in Milan of five stock picking organizations. Two were from Brazil, one was from Malaysia and one was picking stocks inside China via the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We believe what they said was an enticement to investors for the purpose of getting them excited about stocks in their country. To us, this reveals a great deal about where prices in emerging stock markets and commodities are headed over the next five to seven years.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Asias emerging nations, the darling of the world economy since the 2000s, uncharacteristically slowed in the first quarter of 2013. After a decade of robust growth, many of Asias fast-growing economies are coming to terms with structural changes. Asian currencies, which had appreciated quite a bit over the past few years thanks to ultra-loose monetary policy in the developed world, came tumbling down at the first talk of a slowdown in the supply of cheap money.
A Generational Selling Opportunity for the U.S. Long Bond
Because investors tend to extrapolate what their general experience in markets has been recently well into the future, its easy to see why investors are having a long-term love affair with bonds. Yet the data in this paper suggests that a crisis in long bonds is coming and, given this information, individual and institutional investors alike should reconsider the bond portion of their portfolios.
Adapt or Die...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Bond king Bill Grosss $261.7 billion Total Return Fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. suffered a $7.5 billion net outflow last month, according to data from fund tracker Morningstar Inc. on Friday. It is the third straight monthly outflow for the Fund, on the heels of nearly $10 billion in redemptions in June. Clients have yanked $15.6 billion from Grosss Fund in 2013 through July. Jeffrey Gundlachs $37.9 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund suffered $580 million net outflow in July, according to Morningstar.
Results 3,851–3,900
of 4,316 found.
