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What Columbus Missed: Royce Rediscovers India
by David Nadel of The Royce Funds,
In 1492, Italian explorer Christopher Columbus set sail to discover India. He missed his mark, however, landing in America instead. The rest, as they say, is history-with the exception that more than 500 years later India is still worthy of discovery for many Western investors.
American Industrial Renaissance Revisited
We first wrote about The "American Industrial Renaissance" in 2012, and it remains one of our favorite investment themes. We continue to implement this theme through small US-centric industrial companies and small financial institutions that lend to public and private industrial firms. It remains unlikely that the United States will be the manufacturing powerhouse that it was during the 1950s and 1960s, but many factors are suggesting that the US industrial sector will continue to gain market share.
Abenomics is Failing on Multiple Fronts
by GaveKal Capital,
With each passing month it is becoming more clear that Abenomics is, at least so far, failing to meet one of its critical goals, which is to stimulate exports and bring the country back to a trade surplus. Indeed, the latest trade statistics revealed the largest single month trade deficit ever.
The State of International Small-Cap
by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds,
While some argue that domestic small-cap leadership in 2013 was a result of its heavy exposure to companies that tend to generate most of their income domestically, others contest that this greater focus on the U.S. may mean missing out on the benefits of faster-growing foreign economies. We, on the other hand, choose to focus our attentions on individual companies, particularly those in more cyclical areas of the market that are more closely tied to the global economy.
Stocks for 2014: Growth and Income For Total Return - Part 3
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
When investing in common stocks, there is no one strategy that fits all investors. Some investors are focused on investing for income, some for capital appreciation and others for various combinations of both. Additionally, there is the issue of risk tolerance. Some investors are willing and capable of assuming greater risk if they believe it will lead to greater returns, while others are more risk adverse. These are just but a few of the many variations that apply to the individual investors own unique goals and characteristics.
Global Equity Income Update
Job Curtis discusses recent market turbulence, the positioning of the Global Equity Income Fund and the outlook for dividends. Three main reasons for market turbulence include US tapering, capital outflows from emerging markets and fears of deflation in Europe. That said, European companies and many European economies remain strong. We see value outside the US from a dividend yield perspective so the Global Equity Income Fund is more oriented towards overseas markets, including Europe, Asia Pacific and the UK.
Turkey, Doves, Hawks and Owls
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
The current market sentiment is something of an albatross around Asian economic and market performance. Whilst it is never safe to assume the currency speculators have gone away, the regions economies have put in enough hard work over the previous decades to earn some goodwill.
?Hot? Money?s Fast Exit Cools Emerging Markets
Capital flight from emerging markets has been accelerating in recent weeks ($6 billion alone in the week ending February 5). Turkey is the poster child, but the exodus is also happening in India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and others ? mostly from equity markets. This ?hot money? is moving out over concerns that asset bubbles have built up, and that emerging market economic growth is now slowing. The slowdown is partly a result of tighter money in the wake of the Fed?s tapering plans and a decelerating economy in China, many believe. To better understand the risks to the global financial
What Would a Stronger Dollar Mean for Global Markets?
As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserves tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, Were often asked how this affects our view of international markets and risk. The short answer is that it doesnt. Were long-term, bottom-up stock pickers , so we;re primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting.
What Would a Stronger Dollar Mean for Global Markets?
As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserves (Feds) tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, were often asked how this affects our view of the international market and risk. The short answer is that it doesnt. Were long-term, bottom-up stock pickers, so were primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - December 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices saw a modest correction for the second successive month in December, as investors remained cautious about the outlook for some of the emerging economies. Select countries such as Thailand in Asia and Turkey in Europe continue to face difficult political environments, with large demonstrations against the governments. Their currencies have reacted negatively to the latest developments, making investors fearful of a repeat of the volatile market movements seen during the third quarter of 2013.
Global Economic Overview - December 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The global economic outlook has turned brighter as several major economies are improving. Both business and consumer sentiment have become healthier across most regions, as the policy uncertainties that plagued several countries last year have faded. The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate further in 2014, while Europe and Japan are also likely to see faster growth.
Two Questions for Japan Inc.
by Kara Yoon of Matthews Asia,
During my last research trip in November, we visited mostly consumer-facing companies in Japan where we took the opportunity to pose two key questions to the management teams we met. The first was-"Are you planning to increase prices for products or services after Japans consumption tax hike (scheduled for April)?" And secondly: "Will you raise employee wages?"
Emerging Market Woes abd Fed Tapering Equals Stocks Plunge
January saw US stocks record their first losing month since last August. After reaching new record highs at the end of December, the Dow Jones shed almost 1,000 points in the last half of the month and the decline continues. Analysts attributed the sell-off in large part due to troubling news from several emerging nations, in particular to the so-called "Fragile Five" - Turkey, India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.
Will China Overtake the U.S. as World Leader and Reserve Currency?
Will China Overtake the US as World Leader and Reserve Currency? This has not happened yet, but it may not be far down the road if the US does not get its fiscal house in order. The United States has been the biggest national economy since 1871, but more than half of Americans have slapped an expiration date on its global reign.
Crisis in Ukraine
Since November, Ukraine has experienced widespread civil unrest. In late November, Ukrainian President Yanukovych decided not to join an EU-sponsored trade pact. This led to protests from Ukrainians who desired closer relations with Europe. In this report, we will begin by discussing the geopolitics of the nations involved, examining how nations have adjusted their policies over time to changing conditions. We will analyze the risks to the region from current unrest, including a look at the impact on emerging markets. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
10 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back! Comments on January Stock Market
US stocks as measured by the S&P 500 delivered a phenomenal 32.4% return in 2013. That was the 6th best year for US stocks since 1940. In January, US stocks fell 3.5%. We dont watch business news anymore, but judging from an increased volume of phone calls from clients, we presume that CNBC, Fox Business, CNN and MSNBC have categorized this modest decline as "an apocalypse." Our "dashboard" shows return numbers for US and International stock markets, commodities, currencies and bond yields. A lot of red YTD 2014, but all green at the end of 2013.
Thrift, Thrift, Burning Bright
Does the title sound familiar? Think feral instead of frugal, and William Blakes "Tyger, Tyger, burning bright" may start to flicker between the synapses of memory and an English lit class you once soldiered through. But even if you havent read "The Tyger", its theme is aptly captured in the opening line and its image of a big flaming kitty cat. Essentially, Blake saw reality in duality: To appreciate the ferocious feline in all its glory is to come face to face with the same force that created "The Lamb", another entry in the poets Songs of Innocence and of Experience.
A Surprising Gift for Chinese New Year
by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia,
Beijing-based China Credit Trust Company, a firm that operates as a non-banking financial institution in China, announced this week it reached an agreement to restructure a risky high-yield product that had earlier ignited worries over the health of Chinas trust industry. Just in time for the Lunar New Year, investors in the troubled trust may receive a big (metaphorical) red envelope-a monetary gift traditionally given during Chinese New Year or other special occasions-or at least avoid a financial hit.
Not All Emerging Markets Are Created Equal
Emerging markets (EM) is a term given to a universe of countries that is extremely diverse across a wide number of variables including geography, levels of industrialization and political systems. Despite this diversity, emerging markets are often discussed as if they are a homogenous block, particularly in the context of broad asset allocation decision making. We think thats a mistake. Instead, we see opportunity from applying a more bottom-up approach to country, industry and security selection amidst growing dispersion in outcomes across the emerging world.
The TTIP and the TPP
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a trade and investment treaty being negotiated between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a similar pact between the U.S. and various Pacific Rim nations. We will examine overall details of each, focusing on how theyre different from traditional trade agreements. From there, we will present an analysis of the controversy surrounding the proposals, followed by a look at the geopolitical aims and likelihood that these treaties will be enacted. We conclude with potential market ramificatio
Hasenstab: Standing One's Ground
When the masses are against you, its hard to stand your ground. Going against the crowd is familiar turf for Michael Hasenstab, who manages Templeton Global Bond Fund and co-manages Templeton Global Balanced Fund, and certainly knows the virtue of patience. He has staunchly defended his investment theses over the years, tuning out the naysayers and market noise time and again.
Why the Recent Lift in Junior Miners Will Likely Continue
Junior venture companies in Canada are finally seeing a significant lift. In early January, the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index rose above the 200-day moving average for the first time in three years. The index is also very close to experiencing a golden cross, which is when the shorter-term 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historically, traders see this cross as extremely bullish.
Stocks for 2014: Growth and Income For Total Return Part 3
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
When investing in common stocks, there is no one strategy that fits all investors. Some investors are focused on investing for income, some for capital appreciation and others for various combinations of both. Additionally, there is the issue of risk tolerance. Some investors are willing and capable of assuming greater risk if they believe it will lead to greater returns, while others are more risk adverse. These are just but a few of the many variations that apply to the individual investors own unique goals and characteristics.
India's Rising Aspirations
by Sudarshan Murthy of Matthews Asia,
Indias newly formed Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had a spectacular debut in recent state elections. Its leader became the chief minister of the state of Delhi. The election results seemed to indicate a fundamental change-voters now perceive politicians not as "rulers," but as professionals with a limited mandate to serve. The AAP ran on an anti-corruption agenda, and Delhis new chief minister seems to "walk the walk." He uses public transport to commute to work, a refreshing change from the typical politician in India who is usually seen riding in a convoy of vehicles.
What's Your 2014 Market View?
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
U.S. monetary policy seems likely to continue occupying center stage as people fret about interest rates. Last year was a somewhat instructive year for monetary policy theory in that it seemed to show that policies can be effective even when interest rates have no further room to be lowered. Can the nominal GDP in the U.S. grow at faster rates in 2014, and what would that mean for Asia? This month Matthews Asias Chief Investment Officer, Robert Horrocks, offers his insights into how reforms planned for China could be a key factor to change and what could lie ahead for the region overall
What to Expect in 2014 (And Beyond)
by Jack Rivkin of Altegris,
Each year, I take Alfred Lord Tennysons advice and "ring out the old, ring in the new" by creating a list of expectations about the markets. My list involves events that the average investor thinks have only a one-in-three-chance of happening, but which I believe have more than a 50% chance of occurring. If this approach sounds familiar, it should. Its modeled after Byron Wiens annual list of "surprises." Like his, my expectations are designed to provoke thought and discussion.
Emerging Markets 2014 Outlook: Shaping the Next Decade
As we embark upon a new year, the Templeton Emerging Markets Group believes 2014 could be an important year for many emerging markets, possibly establishing trends that could play out through much of the remainder of the decade. In particular, Chinese government reform initiatives announced in late 2013 could have far-reaching significance. And, major elections in a number of countries in 2014 could bring dramatic (or not-so-dramatic) changes. Here are a few themes and countries weve got our eye on in the new year.
Albert Edwards and Dylan Grice: Bearish Forecasts from Two Top Strategists
by Robert Huebscher,
Its been nearly 18 years since Albert Edwards forecast an "ice age" in which bonds would outperform equities. Hes been right until just recently, when cumulative returns on the two classes converged. But Edwards insists that his thesis is still accurate - deflation will be the force to propel bonds over stocks, he says. Dylan Grice, meanwhile, warns that the markets operate on an unstable equilibrium that could devolve into apocalyptic conditions.
Stocks 2014: Investing for Growth - The Power and Protection of High Compounding Earnings Growth
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
As I become more mature (translate: gotten older), my investment philosophy has slowly evolved into a more conservative posture. When I was a younger investor I felt I had time on my side, and therefore, was willing to take on greater risk as long as I believed that greater rewards could follow. In other words, if I made a mistake by investing in an aggressive and more risky growth stock that went badly, I felt I had adequate time to overcome or recover my losses. Consequently, as a younger investor I relished a good growth stock.
Asia's Evolving Science and Tech Space
by Michael Oh of Matthews Asia,
The main growth drivers of Asias science and technology industries are changing to become more domestically driven and service-oriented. These changes are happening as rising disposable income enables more Asian consumers to embrace new technologies.
The Profits Bubble
Profits are dangerously elevated by all reasonable measures. S&P 500 Index real earnings per share are far above their long-term historical trend. Industry profit margins are at or near all-time highs. Corporate profits, both as a percentage of GDP and relative to labor income, are at or near record levels. The dramatic rise in income inequality is a direct consequence of this spectacular reallocation of income to capital and away from labor.
The Great Man or the Great Wave
One of the seminal debates among historians is how the process of history develops, characterized as the "great man versus the great wave" debate. In this report, we will begin by developing this debate with relation to Americas superpower role; specifically, we will examine whether the U.S. is struggling with the superpower role because of a lack of leadership (a great man position) or because the wave of history is aligned against the U.S. keeping that role. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter Year End 2013
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), remarks in his latest quarterly letter that "Despite the painful decline in gold and gold shares that persisted throughout the entire year, we believe that the fundamental case for both remains strong." Hathaway writes that "the bullion market has been pressured all year by an artificial supply of paper gold with little or no connection to the underlying physical.
2014 Economic and Investment Outlook
Although the December 2013 U.S. budget pact between House and Senate negotiators was a welcome development, partisan battles over government spending still are possible in 2014. The agreement ends a three-year budget fight and sets government spending through fall 2015, but it does not eliminate the need to raise the nations borrowing limit - the "debt ceiling."
Exploring Ceylon Tea Country
by Jodi Morris of Matthews Asia,
Riding by train through the Sri Lankan highlands recently, I found it difficult not to be mesmerized by the views of mountains blanketed in tea plantings and cool mist. My days spent exploring Sri Lankas mountainous interior were among my favorite as a first-time visitor to the country.
Hasenstab: Fed Tapering Was Inevitable
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its decision to reduce its $85 billion monthly asset purchase program by $10 billion starting in January 2014. What might the eventual end of the Feds policy of aggressive money printing mean for fixed-income investors? Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D, executive vice president, chief investment officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, believes theres no reason for investors to panic. He outlines why he thinks thats the case, and where on the map hes spotting fixed income opportunities.
The U.S. Begins an (Un)employment Experiment
by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments,
Extended unemployment benefits stopped for 1.3 million people at year-end. This doesnt change their employment status...they just stop getting unemployment compensation. Extended benefits (of up to 99 weeks) was part of the recession-fighting fiscal stimulus package. A question was: did this create a dis-incentive to find a job (aka "funemployment").
Emerging Markets 2014 Outlook: Shaping the Next Decade
As we embark upon a new year, the Templeton Emerging Markets Group believes 2014 could be an important year for many emerging markets, possibly establishing trends that could play out through much of the remainder of the decade. In particular, Chinese government reform initiatives announced in late 2013 could have far-reaching significance. And, major elections in a number of countries in 2014 could bring dramatic (or not-so-dramatic) changes. Here are a few themes and countries weve got our eye on in the new year.
A More Market-Friendly China
by Henry Zhang of Matthews Asia,
My last visit to Beijing happened to coincide with the Communist Partys Third Plenum Meeting. General business sentiment was just as upbeat as it had been earlier last autumn. But through my discussions with different businesspeople, I came away with a distinct new optimism over the leaderships more market-oriented stance on policies.
The World Economy's Shifting Challenges
by George Soros of Project Syndicate,
As 2013 comes to a close, efforts to revive growth in the worlds most influential economies are exerting competing pressures on the global economy. Perhaps not surprisingly, while Europe and the US will continue to play an important global role, developments in Asia will determine the worldwide outlook in 2014 and beyond.
Predictions for the 2014 U.S. Financial Markets
Ive had so many phenomenal and diverse guests on my syndicated radio show, Financial Myth Busting, this year: Steve Forbes, Mort Zuckerman, David Stockman, Michael Belkin, David Walker, Dr. Ben Carson, Marc Faber, and even Ted Nugent. This is a very eclectic group, but they all have certain opinions in common. They all share the same concerns that the U.S. economic growth remains anemic and the continued economic instability and political deadlock along with business communitys mistrust of the U.S. government will continue to destroy Americas bottom line in the future.
Results 3,651–3,700
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