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Data Driven or Driven Data
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand.
Dont Let Market Motion Sickness Keep You From Missing the Boat
Despite all of the good news, the recent threat of market volatility, which weve seen plenty of in commodities and emerging markets, seems to have pushed close-to-retirement folks away from equity securities. The August and October downturns, not to mention the decline in gold and oil prices, have understandably heightened consumer fears.
Five Things To Ponder: Unstoppable Force Paradox
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we enter the final month of the year, the markets advance got me thinking about something known as the "Unstoppable Force Paradox." While you may not be familiar with the name, you will certainly know the definition which questions "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"
Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Oil
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition.
U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up
by Team of LPL Financial,
We believe the U.S. economy will continue its transition from the slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2011 - 2013 to more sustained, broad-based growth. We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years.
What's Next for the Dollar and Gold?
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
Who would have predicted oil prices in the sixty-dollar range a year ago? Something is not right about these markets. Our take: dont get burned when markets add fuel to the fire. Heres what to watch out for as we head into 2015; ignore at your own peril.
What the Swiss Gold Vote Means to the Capital Markets
by Dennis Rhee of AdvisorShares,
As expected, Swiss voters rejected a proposal Sunday to increase the Swiss National Bank (SNB) gold holdings to a mandatory 20 percent of its foreign exchange reserves. The Save Our Swiss Gold proposal was voted down by 77 percent to 23 percent which was a larger margin than what polls had indicated. The SNB had campaigned against this referendum initiated by the European Union-skeptic right wing Swiss Peoples Party which falsely argued that this would have strengthened the SNBs credibility.
Unintended Consequences of Staying Early Termination Rights
The topic of too big to fail has been an intense area of focus for policymakers and market participants, and for good reason: Everyone has a vested interest in avoiding a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis and its corresponding aftershocks.
The Tooth-Fairy Economics of Jeff Madrick
Incentives don't matter, tradeoffs don't exist and there are no limits to what the government can give you. Those who believe this dogma are likely to still have faith in the tooth fairy. In Seven Bad Ideas, a critique of the neoclassical revival in economics that surrounded Milton Friedman and that affected policy and politics worldwide for more than a generation, Jeff Madrick emerges as tooth-fairy economics' chief exponent.
Oil Price Wont Stay Low Forever
If US$80 oil is sustained for a year or more, we think the impact on investment will be significant and the seeds of a future spike in oil prices will have been sown. In our view, its only a matter of time before the market begins to recognize thisand starts to push up oil prices again.
Five Steps to Networking Success
by Dan Richards,
Few things are more frustrating than when the time you spend networking with prospective clients produces no results. But I will share some good news: A few simple steps to rethink your expectations and change your approach will dramatically improve the outcome from networking activity.
Active Investing: Opportunity in Gold
by Tim Gramatovich of AdvisorShares,
As active managers, we embrace both a top down and bottom up investment philosophy as we look for opportunities for investment. One such potential opportunity we are seeing from more of a top down, thematic approach is in gold.
Developed Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Europe remained bogged down by deflationary conditions all through the third quarter. Annual inflation in the regions 18-member single-currency bloc, the Euro-zone, slipped from 0.4 percent in July to 0.3 percent in September, its lowest level since October 2009.
In Energy Revolution, Bond Investors Must Keep Their Heads
A surge in capital expenditures and leverage in the energy industry could end badly for some companies and their creditors. While select opportunities exist, we think bond investors should think carefully before they blindly bankroll todays North American energy revolution.
What is Artificial Pricing?
After the sharp plunge in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields on the morning of October 15, 2015, Bob sent us a few articles which blamed the quick v-shaped price movement on the new breed of algorithmic traders often referred to as High-Frequency Traders (HFTs). The robots were at it again. They were scraping headlines; focused on speed and execution; artificially pricing the Treasury market. A herd mentality amongst the machines was blamed to which Geoff replied, Why doesnt someone write an algorithm to arbitrage algorithmic trading, and what do these people mean by artificial pricing
Gold Gets Physical
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
Its happening again the gold cost of carry as defined by the one month gold forward rate has swung sharply into negative territory. This means that an investor is able to earn a positive carry from owning gold. This is unusual for gold markets and a relatively rare occurrence the more common scenario is that because of the storage costs associated with gold, an investor would expect to have to pay a cost of carry to hold gold. Prior to the instance in July 2013, the last time that gold forward rates went negative was in November of 2008.
Investment Implications for UK DC Schemes in Light of Tax and Regulatory Changes
by William Allport of PIMCO,
With greater flexibility and choices available to DC savers in the latter stages of their career, we believe DC schemes need to reconsider their traditional pre-retirement approach to providing low-risk, income-orientated and pre-retirement investment portfolios. The primary immediate challenge for UK DC schemes is navigating the need for capital stability versus a portfolio that can generate a sustainable income stream for DC savers in retirement.
Global Economy Worsening, But America is on Top
With President Obama making controversial moves on several fronts this month, it is tempting to go all politics this week. The president is threatening to grant defacto amnesty to five or six million illegal aliens, via Executive Order, even though he knows this is unpopular among the American people. Its as if hes in full denial regarding the landslide midterm election results.
Ben Bernanke: Too Big to Fail
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
I shared the stage at Schwabs IMPACT conference recently with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke (a goose-bumpy experience). He was remarkably funny; but also firm in his views about the merits of the Feds extraordinary efforts to stem the tide of the financial crisis. Notably, he strongly pushed back on the notion that QE is an inflation accident waiting to happen.
The Beginning of the End of the Fossil Fuel Revolution (From Golden Goose to Cooked Goose)
by Jeremy Grantham of GMO,
The quality of modern life owes almost everything to the existence of fossil fuels, a massive store of dense energy that for 200 years had become steadily cheaper as a fraction of income. Under that stimulus, the global economy grew ever larger, more complex, more inter-related and, I believe, more fragile. Then around the year 2000 the costs of finding oil start to rise at over 10% a year, and with the global economy growing at only 4% oil starts to fall behind in affordability.
Global Investing: Are Foreign Stocks Attractive?
One of todays most glaring inter-market divergences is the relative performance of US versus non-US equities. For dollar-based investors, non-US stocks have underperformed US stocks by a whopping 40% over the past five years. But are foreign stocks attractive at current prices? And if so, how much of my portfolio should I allocate abroad?
Dash Dash...Dot Dot
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Dash, Dash ... Dot, Dot is all about Morse Code where the dash is three times the duration of the dot. According to Wikipedia, Each character (letter or numeral) is represented by a unique sequence of dots and dashes. Each dot or dash is followed by a short silence, equal to the dot duration.
Portfolio Effects of Holding Gold in Yen Terms
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
Last week in Gold in Yen Calm in the Eye if the Storm we focused on the factors behind the significant outperformance of gold priced in yen versus gold priced in dollars, identifying the strength of the dollar as the primary factor pushing down the price of gold in dollars. While on the currency side, the strength of dollar resulted in significant weakness in the YEN/USD FX rate.
Three Reasons Why Commodity-Related Debt May Hold Value Under Pressure
by Kathleen Gaffney of Eaton Vance,
In this timely Insight, Kathleen Gaffney discusses how a flexible multisector bond strategy can be a great way to gain exposure to, and take advantage of, potential value opportunities in hard-hit commodity related debt.
It's The Economy, and They're Not Stupid
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
The sharp rebuke to the Obama administration delivered by the mid-term elections should not be construed as an endorsement of the GOP, which remains as unpopular as ever. Rather, as has been the case in the last few election cycles, voter revolts have hinged on continued dissatisfaction with the strength of the economy and the diminishing financial prospects of ordinary citizens.
Gold in Yen Calm in the Eye of a Storm
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
Since the beginning of August there has been a striking divergence in the relative performance of gold priced in US dollars versus gold priced in yen. Gold in yen has outperformed its dollar cousin by just over 10% over a period of three months. In fact year-to-date gold priced in yen has returned +5.3% with a 10.7% annualized standard deviation while gold in dollars has returned -2.6% with a 12.5% annualized standard deviation.
3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Odds of a Suckers Rally
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Each week in my weekly newsletter I do a complete overview on major markets, sectors and other market areas such as interest rates, gold and oil. I bring this up because the recent melt-down in oil and energy related stocks is something that I warned about in early August of this year.
Martin Wolf on the Financial Crisis: The Fire Next Time
by Michael Edesess,
If you think the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 was a one-time event caused by lax regulation and a financial industry run riot, then Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf has some bad news for you. Wolf, one of the world's most respected economists, says these circumstances were only part of its proximate cause and that the financial crisis was the inevitable product of the global economic system. If that system does not undergo radical change, says Wolf, financial crises may keep on recurring until the world economic order collapses.
Snail Trail Vortex
The world is undergoing a radical shift towards lower economic growth at the moment. Some of the dynamics driving growth down are structural in nature (e.g. demographics), and even the most extreme monetary or fiscal policy will not change that. We are in for a period of lower, but still positive, global growth whether we like it or not. Despite the somewhat muted outlook, we continue to expect significant regional variations in growth and therefore also in interest rates and equity returns.
Losing Velocity: QE and the Massive Speculative Carry Trade
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
What central banks around the world seem to overlook is that by changing the mix of government liabilities that the public is forced to hold, away from bonds and toward currency and bank reserves, the only material outcome of QE is the distortion of financial markets, turning the global economy into one massive speculative carry trade. The monetary base, interest rates, and velocity are jointly determined, and absent some exogenous shock to velocity or interest rates, creating more base money simply results in that base money being turned over at a slower rate.
Financial Markets Review Third Quarter 2014
Similar to earlier this year, the third quarter featured further evidence of a multi-speed economic recovery across the globe. Central banks reacted in a less-than-coordinated fashion compared to years prior, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) loosening monetary policy while the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) retained more of its status quo as detailed further here.
Stay the Course in Small Caps
Small-cap stocks sold off in the third quarter, but now is not the time to abandon the market cap segment. In this article, Jonathan Coleman, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Janus Venture Fund, gives his perspective on current small-cap valuations, and why an allocation to small caps is beneficial in an environment where the U.S. economy is on stronger footing than the rest of the world.
How Exchange-Traded Futures Can Improve the Efficiency of Gold & Currency Linked ETFs
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
With a number of gold and currency linked ETFs now using exchange traded futures to gain their gold and currency exposure versus the alternative of holding physical gold/hard foreign currency, we discuss below some of the key features of these futures markets which, in our view, mitigate most if not all of the concerns investor may have about these futures based ETPs.
Risk Aversion on the Rise Gold Back in Vogue
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
In this weeks commentary we present a simple methodology for measuring the amount of risk aversion in gold markets. This measure of risk aversion (which we define below) compares the variability of observed gold prices versus the variability that can be implied from gold option prices.
Is This the Beginning of a New Bear Market? Important Signs to Watch
by Chris Puplava of PFS Group,
How the markets behave in the coming weeks will go a long way to help determine if the September-October correction was the start of a new bear market or just a normal correction in a bull market. Chris Puplava provides a detailed outlook
Loomis Sayles Core Plus Bond Fund: Navigating Dynamic Markets with Tactical Flexibility
The global economic cycle is a perpetual force influencing interest rates, credit availability and capital markets. For core plus managers who seek to generate total return by balancing liquidity and risk, these undulations pose a clear challenge.
The Price We Will Pay for Cheap Oil
by Richard Vodra,
Suddenly in June, oil prices started dropping, reaching levels unseen since 2010. What is going on? Why does the price of oil matter to financial advisors? What might these fluctuations mean to the price and supply of oil for the rest of the decade? Isn't oil just another commodity?
Global Evolution a Game Changer for Real Estate
As investors consider rising rates and the impact on yield-based assets, it is time to address a couple of common misperceptions about real estate. Patrick Brophy, Portfolio Manager of the Janus Global Real Estate Fund, explains why rising rates are not directionally bad for real estate equities. He also explains why real estate can be more than just a source of income for portfolios.
Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea. While politicians, CEOs and economists talk about demand stimulus and the avoidance of a deflationary trap, Evans-Pritchard reminds us that inflation is all, and always, about debt management.
Optimizing a Portfolio Allocation to Gold
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
Gold continues to be an attractive asset class that many investors wish to hold in their portfolios primarily for its diversification benefits and defensive characteristics during periods of high risk aversion in global markets. And notably many investors gain their gold exposure via exchange traded products given the ease of access, liquidity and the transparency they offer, particularly to retail investors who historically faced numerous barriers to holding gold in their portfolios.
Disruptive Innovation: The New Normal
by Team of Manning & Napier,
The current economic and market environment is not one in which a rising tide of economic growth will lift all ships; actually, its quite the opposite. As businesses compete, the winners will largely succeed at the expense of the losers. Consider recent examples such as Nokia and BlackBerry; both companies once widely recognized as dominating their respective markets, only to be disrupted by innovative competitors.
Sea Change
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The final chapter and conclusion pretty much end as you would expect: the demise of monetary policys ability to soothe the soul of the markets and the return of volatility. We hopefully get a full-fledged restructuring of the sovereign debt markets. The Fed and sister central banks will try the same tired tools they have been using. Except they have already been to the zero rate boundary and have wasted the opportunity they had to increase rates so that they could lower them later. Another round of quantitative easing?
Results 3,551–3,600
of 4,316 found.
