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Municipal Market Update: What's Ahead in 2015
Municipal bonds ended 2014 as one of the best-performing asset classes - buoyed by investors’ search for yield in a low interest-rate environment. For 2015, we are positioned cautiously for greater volatility in the fixed income markets. We currently prefer revenue-backed bonds over most general obligation (GO) debt, as these sectors typically benefit from dedicated revenue streams and do not have the pension challenges that many state and local governments face.
What Happened to the Secular Bear Market in Equities?
History shows that US equity prices have consistently alternated between secular bull and bear trends. These price movements typically average 15-20 years in length and embrace several different business cycles. In April 2003 we published an article posing the question, ?Whither the Secular Trend of Equities?? which laid out the case for the year 2000 being a secular or very long-term peak for the US stock market. Since the three previous secular bears averaged just over 18-years, our working hypothesis was for a weak market until sometime around 2018.
Key Issues for 2015: The View from Western Asset
The U.S. represents a bright spot in a global recovery best characterized as "two steps forward, one step back." Sector and issue selection remain crucial in this environment, but so do macroeconomic strategies, which may help provide ballast when the pace of recovery slows.
Time to Get Off the Merry-Go-Round ??
by Jerome Schneider of PIMCO,
In 2014, many investors de-risked their portfolios by moving into shorter-duration passive approaches but the potential for capital preservation from these strategies may face challenges. Passive benchmarks and strategies with pre-specified, structural interest rate exposure may have little to no flexibility around their positioning and may push investors into the heart of the proverbial storm. Active strategies not constrained by benchmark limitations may be optimal for investors as they can seek to manage exposure to interest rates.
And the Winner Is...
The annual awards season for the entertainment industry has begun and will kick into high gear over the next two months. It has not been without some controversy already, as the acting and directing nominee lists for the 87th Academy Awards (to be presented on February 22nd) were criticized for a lack of diversity.
There?s More to the Gold Rally than European Market Fears
Even though gold was down last year, it still ranked as the second-best-performing currency, following the U.S. dollar. The metal has risen about 10 percent year-to-date, and on Tuesday, for the first time since mid-August, it broke through the $1,300 mark.
2015 Economic & Capital Market Outlook
The domestic economy is growing at 3.0% to 3.5% pace. The budget deficit is plummeting and currently is less than 2.8% of GDP. The price of oil is in a freefall now below $55 per barrel and inflation is virtually nonexistent. The rate of unemployment is below 6.0%. These are idyllic conditions for any economy, especially five years after the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression. So, what?s the problem?
3 Things - Employment, Interest Rates & Retail Sales
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There has been much discussion as of late about the "longest string of employment gains since the 90's." There is certainly no argument that employment has improved since the financial crisis, however, with the economy six years into a recovery we should certainly expect as much.
The Swiss National Bank?s Unpleasant Experience of Sleeping Next to an Elephant
On 15 January 2015, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly exited its minimum exchange rate regime, which it had adopted back in September 2011 when it was fighting sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc in the midst of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much a guessing game as anything else (and I am bad at guessing games), I?m going to do a five-year forecast to take us to the end of the decade, which I think may be useful for longer-term investors.
Economic Optimism Abounds As Crude Oil Plunges
Each year at this time, we see a plethora of fresh forecasts for the New Year, and this year is certainly no exception, especially with the recent implosion in oil prices. There is widespread agreement that sharply lower energy prices will provide a boost to the global economy this year, especially for oil-importing nations including the US.
A ?Living in the Moment? Guide to Investing
New Year?s Eve is all about partying for a large percentage of the world?s population, but it has a different meaning to me. Don?t get me wrong. I?ve gone to my share of NYE parties, including doing the Times Square thing in 2000 (highly recommended!). But over the years I?ve shifted away from celebrating that way.
Evaluating the Arguments for the Dollar's Demise
by Seaborn Hall,
From the great financial crisis and the massive escalation of sovereign debt and QE to the threat of currency wars to cries from pundits to exit the dollar and buy gold, it requires a discerning advisor to sift through the din and decide whether the dollar's reserve status is slipping. Could the dollar look strong and still be in danger? Several recent books, and papers from the BIS, IMF and Fed delineate the noise from the reality.
Energy: Technology Disruption, but not to all
Disruptive Technologies are the gold vein every entrepreneur seeks, but rarely find. Clayton M. Christensen, the patriarch of observing disruptive technologies, noted in his seminal book The Innovators Dilemma in 1997 that each breakthrough can be categorized as either disruptive or sustaining.
Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In this weeks letter, my associate Worth Wray explores what a rising dollar means for emerging markets and what central banks are likely to do in response. Can they smooth the ride, or will it be the worlds scariest roller coaster? This letter will print long because of the number of fabulous charts Worth provides. I might make a brief comment or two at the end. Heres Worth.
Gold Beat All Other World Currencies in 2014
Loyal readers of our Investor Alert and my blog Frank Talk are no doubt aware that the U.S. dollars rising strength has put pressure on commodities such as oil and gold. I wrote about this as recently as my roundup of the top commodities stories of 2014, which you can read here.
2015 Global Market Outlook: Exploring the Growth Landscape
For much of 2014, the financial press was filled with dire headlines warning of global stagnation and deflation. These demoralizing reports seemed to paralyze policy makers. The facts behind the headlines, however, suggested the reality was not nearly as gloomy or pessimistic as it seemed. This paper outlines a more optimistic outlook for 2015 where the world economy is expected to remain resilient and where the outlook for sustainable corporate returns remains strong.
Sungarden's 2015 Investor Preview
2014 is nearly behind us. And since we tend to not want to do things the way the Wall Street herd does, our 2015 outlook is formatted this way: we list a group of potential scenarios, and then assign our best guess probability that they will happen next year. This is about considering the possibilities, not making outright predictions.
Global Economic Perspective: December
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab & John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
With 321,000 jobs added, the initial US nonfarm payroll report for November was much stronger than markets expected and brought job growth this year close to levels last seen in the late 1990s. Added to upward revisions in September and October jobs data, the nonfarm payrolls data reinforces the view that whatever is occurring in the rest of the world, the US economy appears to remain firmly on track to record reasonably strong growth in the months ahead. And while fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth this quarter for the United States is expected to be lower than the third-quart
Municipal Market Perspectives
"Constructive but cautious is our 2015 mantra. Price appreciation has been a major contributor to portfolio performance as evidenced by the yield curve shift from the beginning of the year. 2015 market performance should largely be determined by income, with less support from declining yields.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for the 2015 Pundit Forecasts!
With little fresh news during the holidays and many pros on vacation, I expect a time of reflection and prediction. Publications hungry for content and TV producers needing to fill slots will highlight forecasts of any and all flavors. This happens every year, but the mid-week holidays are pushing it a little earlier than usual,
The US Dollar and the Cone of Uncertainty
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
For the past two letters weve been looking at the global scene and trying to figure out which issues will help us outline scenarios for 2015. We finish the series today by looking at the impact of the dollar bull market on the probabilities for various 2015 developments.
Does Victory For Abe Mean Defeat For The Yen?
by Dennis Rhee of AdvisorShares,
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prevailed on Sundays snap election which will give Abe a fresh mandate to implement his policies to revive Japan from its prolonged well chronicled economic malaise. There was no way Abenomics wasnt going to continue since Abes LDP party had 352 candidates to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan fielding only 198 candidates for the 475 seats up for grabs.
Financial Planning for an Uncertain Energy Future
by Richard E. Vodra,
Advisors hearing optimistic forecasts of plentiful new supplies of oil that may last for decades may be encouraged to make aggressive projections for their clients. It is critical to understand the role oil plays in the economy and the factors that will affect future supplies. Advisors should "drill down" beneath the slogans to see both risks and opportunities upon which to base their recommendations.
Black Gold Loses Glitter
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Crashing Oil Prices Change the Feds Course?
The investment conclusion is opportunity in non-energy cyclical stocks, including basic materials, technology, and consumer discretionary. There are also energy names that are part of the knee-jerk reaction, but which do not necessarily suffer from lower oil prices. These include refiners and some of the large integrated oil companies that need to replace reserves. (Barrons also suggests oil tanker stocks storage needed!)
Examining the Correlation between Oil and Gold
by Dennis Rhee of AdvisorShares,
Crude Oil and Gold have generally exhibited a positive correlation (meaning they move in tandem) for the past 7 out of 10 years. In general both fall in the commodity asset class and are commonly used by investors as an inflation hedge as well as for portfolio diversification. As inflation increases, both commodities will tend to follow suit.
Favorable Policy Environment for Stocks in 2015
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
We expect the policy environment in 2015 to be supportive for stocks. The transfer of power to Republicans may have a meaningful impact on broad policy measures. Regardless of the political party in power, the year before the presidential election has historically been a good one for stocks.
Whos Really in The Kingdoms Gun Sights?
by Doug Holt of AdvisorShares,
According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 million barrels per day last week with Canadian barrels making up 3.2 million barrels of the total. U.S. commercial reserves increased by 1.9 million barrels week over week where total inventories fell 3.7 million barrels versus expectations of a build of 950,000.3 Are we at the beginnings of a rebalancing of the market? Possibly.
Data Driven or Driven Data
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand.
Dont Let Market Motion Sickness Keep You From Missing the Boat
Despite all of the good news, the recent threat of market volatility, which weve seen plenty of in commodities and emerging markets, seems to have pushed close-to-retirement folks away from equity securities. The August and October downturns, not to mention the decline in gold and oil prices, have understandably heightened consumer fears.
Five Things To Ponder: Unstoppable Force Paradox
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we enter the final month of the year, the markets advance got me thinking about something known as the "Unstoppable Force Paradox." While you may not be familiar with the name, you will certainly know the definition which questions "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"
Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Oil
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition.
U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up
by Team of LPL Financial,
We believe the U.S. economy will continue its transition from the slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2011 - 2013 to more sustained, broad-based growth. We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years.
What's Next for the Dollar and Gold?
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
Who would have predicted oil prices in the sixty-dollar range a year ago? Something is not right about these markets. Our take: dont get burned when markets add fuel to the fire. Heres what to watch out for as we head into 2015; ignore at your own peril.
What the Swiss Gold Vote Means to the Capital Markets
by Dennis Rhee of AdvisorShares,
As expected, Swiss voters rejected a proposal Sunday to increase the Swiss National Bank (SNB) gold holdings to a mandatory 20 percent of its foreign exchange reserves. The Save Our Swiss Gold proposal was voted down by 77 percent to 23 percent which was a larger margin than what polls had indicated. The SNB had campaigned against this referendum initiated by the European Union-skeptic right wing Swiss Peoples Party which falsely argued that this would have strengthened the SNBs credibility.
Unintended Consequences of Staying Early Termination Rights
The topic of too big to fail has been an intense area of focus for policymakers and market participants, and for good reason: Everyone has a vested interest in avoiding a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis and its corresponding aftershocks.
The Tooth-Fairy Economics of Jeff Madrick
Incentives don't matter, tradeoffs don't exist and there are no limits to what the government can give you. Those who believe this dogma are likely to still have faith in the tooth fairy. In Seven Bad Ideas, a critique of the neoclassical revival in economics that surrounded Milton Friedman and that affected policy and politics worldwide for more than a generation, Jeff Madrick emerges as tooth-fairy economics' chief exponent.
Oil Price Wont Stay Low Forever
If US$80 oil is sustained for a year or more, we think the impact on investment will be significant and the seeds of a future spike in oil prices will have been sown. In our view, its only a matter of time before the market begins to recognize thisand starts to push up oil prices again.
Five Steps to Networking Success
by Dan Richards,
Few things are more frustrating than when the time you spend networking with prospective clients produces no results. But I will share some good news: A few simple steps to rethink your expectations and change your approach will dramatically improve the outcome from networking activity.
Active Investing: Opportunity in Gold
by Tim Gramatovich of AdvisorShares,
As active managers, we embrace both a top down and bottom up investment philosophy as we look for opportunities for investment. One such potential opportunity we are seeing from more of a top down, thematic approach is in gold.
Results 3,551–3,600
of 4,353 found.
