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Fed Forecasts Sub-3% Economy for the Next Three Years
The Feds policy committee announced last Wednesday that it will end its massive QE bond buying program at the end of next month, thus paving the way for the first Fed funds rate increase sometime next year. This was not a surprise. The Feds gargantuan balance sheet will peak near $4.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds at the end of October.
Jeremy Siegel vs. Zvi Bodie: Does Equity Risk Decrease Over Time?
Stocks should be the asset class of choice for the long run, according to Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel - and he has provided the data to prove it. But that paradigm has been challenged by Boston University Professor Zvi Bodie and others, who have shown that stocks become riskier the longer one owns them. Either view has profound implications for whether equity allocations should increase or decrease over time. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we provide guidance for the advisory profession.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
In a week defined by increased rate volatility, Treasury yields ended mixed, as the yield curve continued to flatten. Registering its first monthly decline in over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to support a benign inflationary environment, further supporting long-dated instruments. With global inflation subdued, central banks around the world remain more concerned about lapsing back into recession than about frothy risk markets and potential bubbles.
Michael Aronstein on the Fed's Latest Mistake
by Robert Huebscher,
Since the Fed began its post-crisis monetary easing, a cult of second-guessers has emerged. The most extreme cry of "dollar debasement" or admonish that markets are doomed for hyperinflation. The more reasonable view, articulated by Michael Aronstein at a recent conference for financial advisors, is that near-zero interest rates and QE have distorted markets, but it is unclear when or how that will impact investors.
Alternative Approaches for Managing Emerging Market Equity Portfolios
The shortcomings of indexing are especially evident in frontier markets, where some very small markets have significant weights. This paper discusses three approaches for targeting inefficiencies in emerging markets. These approaches are designed to fit together and complement each other within an investment portfolio. Overlap is generally minimal, so investors may reasonably employ all three.
Banking on the Growing Strength of the Financial System
by Dave Ellison of Hennessy Funds,
Thiscommentary explores the U. S. financial systems profound changes. In 2007, the financial system began to unravel due to excessive leverage, credit risk and overall business complexity. As we look forward, we see a potentially more stable profit picture developing for these firms. And, a rising interest rates environment has historically translated to increased revenue for banks and financial institutions. Dave Ellison believes the financial sector is ripe with opportunity.
“You’re Going to Need a Bigger Boat”: Alpha and Interest Rates
Caution has been the dominant sentiment among investors in recent times even as equities have continued to march along. But as the prospect of rising US interest rates becomes ever more real, Brooks Ritchey, senior managing director at K2 Advisors, Franklin Templeton Solutions, takes a look at how some individuals and institutions are changing their guarded approach. He says alternative investments could find increased interest among savvy investors as interest rates start to tick higher.
Gundlach on Today's Surprising Driver of Bond Prices
by Robert Huebscher,
Inflationary pressures could ultimately trigger an uncontrollable spike in interest rates, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, but such predictions are likely at least five years too early. In the short run, he identified the key driver that will keep rates low - the strong performance of European bond markets.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
After a strong summer rally, the first two weeks of September have not been kind to US financial markets, with both stock and bond markets generating negative returns. In the month to date, ten year Treasury yields have risen twenty five basis points to 2.60%, the highest such level since the first week of July.
Growing Income and Wealth with High-Dividend Equities
High-dividend equities have significant advantages for growing income and wealth: getting sufficient yield, keeping up with inflation and outliving available funds. Such a portfolio produces higher income per dollar invested, growing income and principal over time, higher total returns, lower volatility and a reduced risk of outliving savings.
Back in the Saddle Again: Time to Pull in the Reins?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
Interest rates and seasonal tendencies are taking some attention away from the stronger economy and pose short-term risks for the stock market. Another pullback would be welcome from a sentiment perspective and would not dent our longer-term optimism that we are in a secular bull market that still has room to run. But just as fear has been the strongest emotion keeping many investors out of this bull market, greed is an emotion to rein in as well.
Risk Revisited
In April I had good results with Dare to Be Great II, starting from the base established in an earlier memo (Dare to Be Great, September 2006) and adding new thoughts that had occurred to me in the intervening years. Also in 2006 I wrote Risk, my first memo devoted entirely to this key subject. My thinking continued to develop, causing me to dedicate three chapters to risk among the twenty in my book The Most Important Thing. This memo adds to what Ive previously written on the topic.
The Long-Term Value of Active Management in the Small-Cap Space
by Chuck Royce of The Royce Funds,
As the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of active management, especially since the proliferation of ETFs and index funds, continues unresolved, it is difficult for us not to be biased. Our focus, however, remains solely on long-term outperformance and the interests of our shareholders, and we believe the best way of accomplishing this is through careful stock selection and having an absolute standard.
The Demise of Active Management is Greatly Exaggerated
Financial advisors and registered investment advisors feel severe pressure to throw in the towel on manager selection methodologies and accept index returns. Yet, many of these stories forget one central concept: indexes are actually inexpensive actively-managed portfolios. Every actively managed fund is an index itself.
Event Driven Managers Encounter a Short-Term Hiccup
After a period of very strong deal activity during the first half of 2014, traders and investors were hit with arbageddon in early August. Arbageddon struck after a series of large deals fell apart, sparking concern that the pickup in activity from earlier in the year was coming to an abrupt halt. Activity since that time would suggest otherwise, and it appears that the M&A train is back on course.
Correcting a Common Misconception about Alternative Investments
by Walter Davis of Invesco Blog,
A common misconception about alternative investments is that these investments have failed anytime they underperform the stock market. Investors need to know that alternative investments are designed to achieve returns that are more consistent and less volatile than those of the stock market on a long-term basis across multiple market cycles.
Dynamic and Durable Growth Part 4: The Coming Mobile Advertising Boom
by Ido Cohen of Invesco Blog,
This is the fourth in a four-part series examining dynamic and durable growth themes that affect the US economy and present opportunities for investors. The first post examined the biotech revolution, the second explored the enormous implications of shale energy, and the third looked at the impending mobile data tsunami.
Municipal Market Perspectives
Heightened international unrest and the likelihood of accelerating economic weakness in Europe will provide further support for fixed income securities. It is unlikely central banks will move from their current accommodative monetary positions anytime soon. Since we do not anticipate a meaningful upward move in Treasury rates, municipal bond prices should also benefit. Yields are likely to remain close to current levels and even possibly move lower. Strong market technical factors will also provide support.
Toward the Sounds of Chaos
Stock market volatility is always a scary thing. Investors nearing retirement fear their nest eggs will evaporate. Younger investors saving for a home or a childs college education fear their families futures might be in doubt. However, history suggests that allowing volatility to overrule a good investment plan tends to lead to poor performance. Its not volatility itself that generally leads to poor longer-term performance, but rather it appears to be investors emotional reactions to volatility that ultimately lead to poor performance.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
In a week devoid of meaningful economic data, financial markets were once again led by intensifying geopolitical events. With stock indices across the globe recording losses of 1%-3% on the week, US ten year yields declined to a low of 2.35% on Fridaya new low for 2014 and the lowest such point since June 2013. Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in February, and later followed by the Iraq/ ISIS and the Israel/ Gaza conflicts, global sovereign yields have declined to levels unthinkable at the turn of the year.
Long/Short Funds Go 'Unhedged' in Energy
by Brian Payne of Fortigent,
Over the course of 2014 investors have come to notice the increase in net exposures amongst long/short equity managers. Many investors have grown somewhat wary of this development. Given the markets relatively uninterrupted run-up since late 2012, it is rational to think that these types of strategies might naturally lower their overall net exposure.
Dynamic and Durable Growth Part 3: The Mobile Data Tsunami
by Ido Cohen of Invesco Blog,
This is the third in a four-part series examining dynamic and durable growth themes that affect the US economy and present opportunities for investors. The first post explored the biotech revolution, and the second looked at the enormous implications of shale energy. The final post will examine the coming mobile advertising boom.
Dynamic and Durable Growth Part 2: The Enormous Implications of Shale Energy
by Erik Voss of Invesco Blog,
This is the second in a four-part series examining dynamic and durable growth themes that affect the US economy and may present opportunities for investors. The first post explored the biotech revolution, and the third and fourth posts will discuss the massive changes in mobility.
US Stocks Make 31 Record Highs in 2014, But Investors Panic During 3% Selloff
US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 made 31 record highs in 2014, most recently on July24th. Through Friday afternoon, stocks declined 3.3%, which is to say less than the decline of 4.2% we saw in April of this year, and decline of 5.6% in January.
Index funds beat active 90% of the time. Really?
My last article suggested six ways in which retired and retiring investors may be lulling themselves into a false sense of comfort. They do this by adhering to ideals that were originally postulated many years ago, and which today still have some merit. But theyve become clichs to a point where their foundation is no longer questioned when it needs to be. They are myths which need to be busted
Second Quarter 2014 Investment Commentary
by Team of Litman Gregory,
Overall, our macro view and assessment of the risks and returns across the major asset classes has not changed meaningfully since last quarter. We continue to see the U.S. and global economies on a slow path of recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. ... Despite our more positive fundamental outlook, we also continue to view the markets as too dependent on central bank largesse, too short-term focused, and too complacent about the risks and imbalances that remain in the global economy in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
The Outlook for MLPs and Midstream Energy Infrastructure Continues to Look Bright
The quarter saw a number of positive developments that underpin our long term positive outlook on MLPs. Firstly, the need for new midstream infrastructure remains significant, and a number of announcements of large new projects highlighted that this need is not abating. Also, a significant new development in the quarter was the emergence of new export markets for ethane and condensate which will entail associated infrastructure development and other possible profit opportunities for MLPs.
High Stock Dividends: A Competitive Retirement Income Solution
by C. Thomas Howard of AdvisorShares,
Sufficient yield, keeping up with inflation, and outliving the funds available are three major concerns facing investors who are building a retirement portfolio. A high dividend yield equity portfolio can provide a competitive approach to addressing each of these concerns.
Dynamic and Durable Growth - Part 1: A Biotech/Pharma Revolution
by Janet Luby of Invesco Blog,
This is the first in a four-part series examining dynamic and durable growth themes that affect the US economy and may present opportunities for investors. The remaining three blog posts will examine the enormous implications of shale energy and the massive changes in mobility.
U.S. Equities Continue to Look Attractive: Equity Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
As we sit down to write this Outlook we are struck by two trends: the consistency of the economic recovery in the U.S. and the dramatic escalation of geopolitical turmoil. Whether these two trends will collide to derail the bull market is an open question, but usually geopolitical flare-ups have only short-term effects and do not overwhelm long-term economic trends. Thus, they tend to appear as hiccups in stock market progress.
Does Active Management Succeed in International Small-Caps?
by Team of The Royce Funds,
Divergent conclusions about the relative success of active management in the international small-cap universe prompted us to do our own examination, which stresses the importance of choosing the appropriate benchmark and evaluating the consistency of a fund's performance over long-term time periods.
2014 Another Ho Hum Year from Hedge Funds
by Ryan Davis, Brian Payne of Fortigent,
Through the first six months of the year, hedge funds have generated a positive, albeit somewhat modest return. According to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research, the Fund Weighted Composite of hedge funds in their universe had generated a 3.2% return, compared to the S&P 500s 7.1% gain. While not terrible on a standalone basis, many investors had greater hopes for the asset class following five straight calendar years of underperformance versus the broad equity markets.
Mid-Year Review: Interest-Rate Sensitive Stocks May Correct With First Fed Rate Hike
by Rick Golod of Invesco Blog,
With the recent strength in the economy and decline in the unemployment rate, the probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) increases rates in the first half of 2015 is rising, in my opinion. Given the volume of media noise about this, its understandable that many investors are still worried about the stock markets potential for correction.
Red Shoots - Today's Top Investor Concerns (Also Known as the Investors "Dirty Dozen")
A while back, we published a list that we continually update at Sungarden. We call them Red Shoots. They are essentially the opposite of a set of conditions which gave investors hope that not all was lost, in the throes of the financial crisis of 2008. Those reasons for optimism were called Green Shoots, like a patch of short green grass about to show up on the dirt area you will one day call your lawn. Red Shoots are the opposite: they are the reasons for extreme caution when the market and many investors seem to be forgetting that security prices are not a one-way propositi
Fireside Chats
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
While I was in the Pacific Northwest and Canada most of last week, I did have the privilege of listening to J.P. Morgans (JPM/$55.80/Strong Buy) Chief Market Strategist last Monday. Dr. David Kelly has long been known for his keen insights on the equity markets, with JPMs senior portfolio managers like George Gatz and Tom Luddy steering their mutual funds, on said strategic views, to outsized gains for many years.
Physics Envy
Economists have long sought to identify a deterministic "natural law" of markets in the same way that physicists have discovered natural laws such as gravity and electromagnetism. This is sometimes referred to as "physics envy". If economists could identify a deterministic natural law of markets then we would be able to make useful and accurate predictions. Sadly no such law exists. Human actions are not governed by simple predictable laws.
Analysis of Ayres and Curtis Critique of 401(k) Plans
In our previous article we reviewed [Professors Ayres and Curtis's paper Beyond Diversification: The Pervasive Problem of Excessive Fees and 'Dominated Funds' in 401(k) Plans] (John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy Research Paper No. 493). Our purpose in that article was simply to describe what Professors Ayres and Curtis are saying. In this article we evaluate their findings and proposals, discussing the limits of and possible objections to their conclusions.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
Geopolitical headlines, coupled with renewed stress in European markets, led to a strong rally in US Treasuries last week. Further supporting the decline in interest rates was the perceived dovish overtone to the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The New Neutral: Investment Implications for Insurance Companies
by David Braun of PIMCO,
Low rates are unhelpful to an industry with legacy long-term liabilities containing rigid embedded credited rates; they exacerbate asset-liability mismatches and pressure earnings margins. Insurers may want to recalibrate their expectations of future interest rates, as well as broad bond and equity market returns. In The New Neutral, with beta from stocks and bonds likely to be relatively low, insurers should look to enhance buy-and-hold return potential via active management.
Energy: Shale Generates Tectonic Changes
by Stephen Toy of Invesco Blog,
The shale revolution, only seven or eight years old, has been the catalyst for a tectonic change in US energy production and policy. It has also created a new paradigm in US manufacturing, launched a renaissance in the chemical industry, and is driving infrastructure spending. So how do we think about the shale revolution in terms of investing? Its twofold.
New Analysis of 401(k) Plan Performance and Fees
In the paper Professors Ayres and Curtis conclude that 401(k) plan participants suffer significant losses from (1) sponsor-fiduciary fund menu construction decisions, (2) participant asset allocation mistakes and (3) high fees on plan investment options. To remedy this problem they make several innovative proposals for changes in the rules for 401(k) plan fund menu construction.
India and Indonesia: Change, Challenge and Opportunity
by Jack Deino of Invesco Blog,
In both India and Indonesia, leaders are facing intense pressure from markets and investors to initiate reforms that are real rather than merely cosmetic. Our outlook is somewhat more bullish for India, but we believe change can lead to opportunity in both countries.
The New Normal of Healthcare Spending
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
A rather interesting shockwave came across the newsfeeds this week. I was actually doing a TV interview when the host announced that GDP was down 2.9% for the first quarter. There was not much else I could do but note that that was a really bad, ugly, terrible, not very good number.
How Road Construction Can Help With Portfolio Construction
by R. Scott Dennis of Invesco Blog,
Investors have long looked to real estate to provide income potential, hedge against future inflation and provide diversification to traditional stock and bond portfolios. More recently, an increasing number of investors have been expanding their horizons and including real assets in their portfolio construction as well such as infrastructure and master limited partnerships (MLPs). At Invesco Real Estate, we believe the US and the world is heading for a building boom that would bode well for real assets.
Results 2,751–2,800
of 3,362 found.
