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Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
Treasury yields rose sharply last week, with intermediate and long date bonds registering the sharpest price declines, as US equities again reached new highs. Fridays eagerly anticipated May employment report came in line with market expectations, continuing to signal gradual improvement in the labor market. With +217,000 jobs created last month, May marked the first 4-month string of payroll reports over +200,000 since 1999.
The Modern Portfolio Flat Earth Society
Math and physics are rooted in equations that spit out precise answers; vagueness there is dangerous for the right reasons. That is why they are called exact sciences. Investing, despite being taught as an almost exact science, is far from it. It is a craft that falls somewhere between art and science.
A Contrarians View of Value: Financials
by Kevin Holt of Invesco Blog,
In the wake of the Great Recession, and significant regulatory changes, investors are concerned that large banks may not be able to generate the type of profits that they have in the past. We dont disagree with that assessment. However, we do disagree with the current equity valuations of the large banks we believe the market has priced in a too-pessimistic view of profitability.
Thai Coup: Business as Usual
On May 22, Thailands military launched its 12th coup after a failed attempt to get the caretaker government and the opposition to resolve a seven-month political stalemate. While the military has seized temporary control, we believe the coup will have limited economic and investment impact.
The Growing Importance of Natural Gas
by Skip Aylesworth of Hennessy Funds,
The natural gas industry is experiencing a revolution. Fueled by advances in drilling technology, natural gas has become an abundant energy source and is quickly becoming Americas domestic energy solution. In fact, it is believed that we now have a 100-year supply in the U.S. even with increasing demand.
After Indias Election, Execution takes Center Stage for Debt Markets
by Jack Deino of Invesco Blog,
Financial markets in India have already rallied strongly in anticipation of the overwhelming majority win by incoming Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The countrys currency (the Indian rupee) rose 15% from its August peak, while five-year credit default swaps on the State Bank of India (SBI) tightened from a spread of 371 to 207 in the same period.
Three Questions Investors Need to Ask About Alternatives
by Donna Chapman Wilson of Invesco Blog,
The world of alternative investments includes a range of hedge fund-like strategies that typically consist of publicly traded equity and fixed income investments, but are unconventionally managed using a variety of exposures (long, short, market neutral) and financial instruments. These strategies have gained acceptance in recent years, and have become more widely available to individual investors through vehicles such as mutual funds. However, questions still remain about the best ways to incorporate them into an asset allocation strategy.
The Bull Market Isn’t Over. It’s Changing.
Markets, especially in the developed world, have hit new highs. However, a rising economic tide will no longer lift all boats to the extent it once did. Find out why Chief Economist Jerry Webman believes the winners are likely to be organic revenue generators, efficiency vendors and innovators.
Energy: An Overlooked Bull Market
by Ron Sloan of Invesco Blog,
Defensive stocks, such as health care and utilities, have led the market for most of 2014. But were starting to see a shift toward cyclical sectors that offer greater exposure to a strengthening economy. In my view, the most overlooked cyclical sector is energy, which has experienced a very strong start this year thats been under the radar of many investors.
Behavioral Finance and the Bond Market
Over the last decade the concept of behavioral finance has received increased recognition in both the academic world and with investors. Modern Portfolio Theory makes three distinct assumptions: investors are rational, markets are efficient, and expected returns are purely a function of risk. In contrast, followers of behavioral finance generally believe investors are less than perfect and subject to many emotional biases. Said differently, behavioral finance differs from traditional finance in that it focuses on how investors actually behave, rather than theorizing how they should behave.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
US Treasury yields declined across the entire maturity spectrum last week, as renewed geopolitical risk more than outweighed a strong employment report. With inflation remaining well below the Fed?s target rate of 2%, long dated Treasury yields continued to decline at a faster rate than shorter dated yields, further flattening the yield curve.
Retail, Infrastructure Are Issues to Watch in Colombia and Peru
by Jason Trujillo of Invesco Blog,
The Invesco Emerging Markets team spent a week traveling through Colombia and Peru, meeting with company management teams, consultants and government officials. During our trip, two themes were prevalent that could have broad implications for local companies and global investors: the relative under-penetration of modern-format retailing throughout Colombia and Peru, and the severe need for infrastructure improvement.
?Cautious? Investors: Saying One Thing, Doing Another
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Five years into an equity bull market, investors say they?re still cautious. However, Americans hold as much risk in their financial portfolios as they did during the tech bubble in 2000. Russ explains what?s behind this trend and what it means for investors.
Positioning Your Portfolio for Rising Rates.
by Team of Forward Management,
Accelerating outflows from bond funds in 2013 highlight investor nervousness over the prospect of rising interest rates. Investors may want to carefully assess the role of fixed-income investments in their portfolios, particularly in light of other types of income-producing vehicles. Upon careful evaluation of their options, investors can make adjustments suitable to their objectives.
Rising Food Prices May Whet Investors' Appetite for Agriculture
by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Blog,
Food prices are affected by a wide range of factors - from weather to geopolitics. Today, these factors seem to be pointing toward rising food inflation, and investors want to know where potential opportunities may lie.
What's Wrong with PIMCO?
When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first talked about reducing or tapering the Federal Reserves asset purchase program back in May of 2013, the market response was dramatic. Investors started fleeing bonds, causing bond prices to drop and bond yields to rise. In a rising interest rate environment, the net asset value (NAV) of fixed income mutual funds falls as rates rise. This often leads to shareholder redemptions (they want out!), forcing these bond mutual fund portfolio managers to sell bonds in an unfavorable market.
Equity Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
Short term, we would not be surprised if the market took a breather after its strong gains last year. Additionally we may see volatility related to news coming out of the Middle East and Russia. But longer term, we remain very optimistic on the outlook for U.S. equities. In addition to the reasons we discussed above we believe U.S. equities are very attractive relative to the alternatives. The great bull market in bonds appears to be over. The great decades of emerging market growth appear to be behind us.
Why Today?s Environment Favors Active High Yield Strategies
Fixed income investors are looking for ways to prepare their portfolios for rising interest rates. While bond prices generally fall when rates rise, history shows that high yield bonds have typically held up well in rising rate environments.
Every Central Bank for Itself
Whether the FOMC can actually turn the taper into a true exit strategy ultimately depends on how much longer households and businesses must deleverage and how sharply our old-age dependency ratio rises, but markets seem to believe this is the beginning of the end. For now, that?s what matters most. Under Fed Chair Janet Yellen?s leadership, the Fed continues to send a clear message to the rest of the world: Now it really is every central bank for itself.
The Russians Are Coming
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming is a 1966 American comedy film directed by Norman Jewison and based on Nathaniel Benchley?s book The Off-Islanders. The movie tells the Cold War story of the comedic chaos that happens when a Soviet submarine runs aground closely offshore a small island town near New England and the crew is forced to come ashore. Last Friday, however, rumors that the ?Russians are coming? swirled down the canyons of Wall Street, causing a late Friday Fade that left the S&P 500 (SPX/1865.09) down an eye-popping 24 points.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
One quarter down; three to go. After a rough January, stocks rebounded to complete a solid quarter with the Dow Jones the lone main index still "in the red." The new week found decent numbers from manufacturing and labor and investors moved past the "bad weather" excuse, though still took profits from high-flying bio-techs and internet stocks. The late-week selling hindered the overall equity performance.
"I Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday for a Hamburger Today"
In October of 2013, Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize in economics for his research on spotting market bubbles. Shiller, an economist and professor at Yale University who accurately predicted the housing bubble, is a pioneer of behavioral finance, or the understanding of how psychology causes us to act irrationally with our money.
How High-Frequency Trading Benefits Most Investors
A controversial new book came out in late March that lambastes so-called ?high-frequency trading? on the major stock exchanges and claims that such computerized trading robs retail investors of good executions and profits on their stock orders. The book, ?Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt,? was written by former bond salesman turned author, Michael Lewis, who appeared on CBS? 60 Minutes on March 30. Since then, his book has stirred up quite the controversy among stock market investors.
Is This an Andy Hardy Kind of Market?
With Mickey Rooney?s death over the weekend (at age 93, after accumulating show business credits spanning 10 decades), I got to thinking about the Andy Hardy movie series that propelled Mickey at the ripe old age of 16 into stardom. In the 50?s the TV screen was awash with black and white classics of the 30?s and 40?s. Like the Great Depression generation, many of the baby boomers binged on Andy Hardy movies long before Walking Dead, Breaking Bad or House of Cards.
Avoiding Complacency
by Heather Rupp of AdvisorShares,
Active managers dont have a mandate to hold any certain securities, thus they can pick and choose as to what they feel offers the best return level for a given risk profile. The high yield bond market still offers plenty of what we view as very attractive opportunities in credits that we see as solid companies at yields about 300 basis points or more above the yield level on this bond.
Available at a Low Price in Relation to Intrinsic Value
At Smead Capital Management, valuation matters dearly. We believe all the academic studies from Fama-French, Bauman-Conover-Miller and Francis Nicholson, show that cheap stocks as measured by price-to-book value (P/B), price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-dividends outperform more expensive stocks. We especially love Nicholson?s 25-year study because it shows that the 100 cheapest stocks that make up the lowest P/E quintile see their outperformance expand the longer you hold them. Cheapness is the gift that keeps on giving.
European Rally Has Legs
by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Blog,
Since hitting a low on June 1, 2012, the MSCI Europe Index has rallied 64.73%. In our view, there?s room for European equity markets to advance further, supported by strong fundamentals, positive flows and a steady uptrend from the June 2012 low.
What Has Been Fueling the Rise of Gold in 2014?
by Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh,
Gold declined approximately 28% for the year of 2013, its worst annual performance since 1981 according toUSA Today. At that time, the downturn ended Golds own bull market run of 12 consecutive years as investors jumped on the back of this current bull market by piling into stock funds in 2013 and largely exiting bond funds.
Looming Retirement Crisis ? Boomers In Big Trouble!
Let?s face it, we all know this country is facing a retirement crisis. The first of the Baby Boomers turned 65 and started retiring in 2011. The number of Boomers retiring each year will rise rapidly over the next decade or more. Before the end of this decade, Boomers will be turning age 65 at the rate of 8,000 per day.
Yes, Even Advisors Get Bullied!
I am a financial advisor who is being bullied in my office. I cannot sleep, have constant anxiety and feel like I am working under war-like conditions. I have tried everything to shore up my confidence, but I cant stop the onslaught of vitriol that comes at me every day.
Our Most Read Article from Last Week: Gundlach - Rates Will Remain Low in 2014
by Robert Huebscher,
Slowing economic growth, low inflation and a lack of motivated sellers will keep interest rates depressed, at least for the rest of this year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But investors should prepare for an eventual rise in rates, he said, because he is skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to successfully exit from QE.
Is the Fed Supporting the Equity Markets?
by Tom Riegert of Hatteras Funds,
The Federal Reserve?s unprecedented increase in reserves purchased through its quantitative easing programs has paralleled the performance of the equity markets to a startling degree. Has the Fed?s program been supporting the equity markets? We examine the strong correlation between the Fed?s balance sheet and the performance of the S&P 500 since end-2008, and ponder the effects the Fed?s long-awaited tapering will have on market volatility. Investors facing the uncertainty ahead could well find alternative investments a welcome addition to their portfolio.
Retirement Savings: How Much Is Enough? Part 2: Good News Not Good Enough
by Jon Vogler of Invesco Blog,
This second blog in a two-part series about retirement readiness discusses whether 401(k)s and Social Security can adequately meet retirement income needs. Part 1 looked at the rule-of-thumb numbers cited as guidelines for income replacement in retirement.
A Kid?s Market?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The Great Winfield goes on to say, in Adam Smith?s classic book from 1967, ?The strength of my kids is that they?re too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money they feel invincible.? He rented kids with the idea that one day the music will stop (it partially did in 1969-1970 and completely did in 1973-1974) and all of them will be broke but one.
Japan?s Rising Opportunity
After WWII, the Japanese economy began what is sometimes referred to as the ?Economic Miracle?, a three-decade long period of growth and prosperity. Japanese firms and their management teams were studied around the world as the model of efficiency and an example for all companies and leaders to strive for. In 1989, a bubble in real estate fueled by speculators burst, and the Japanese markets crashed. Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a virtual standstill with more than two decades of stagnant growth and a deflationary environment.
Gundlach - Rates Will Remain Low in 2014
by Robert Huebscher,
Slowing economic growth, low inflation and a lack of motivated sellers will keep interest rates depressed, at least for the rest of this year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But investors should prepare for an eventual rise in rates, he said, because he is skeptical of the Federal Reserves ability to successfully exit from QE.
Active Share. Toward a Stock Picker’s Market?
Explore five groups of mutual funds-from stock pickers to moderately active to the closet indexers. Which categories produced the best risk-adjusted return 1990-2009? The more different the portfolio from its benchmarks, the greater the range of possible outcomes. Consider a tool like active share.
Understanding The "Millennial Generation"
As the father of two adult children who were born in the early 1990s, I have a particularly keen interest in the ?Millennial Generation? ? those 80 million or so people born in the US between 1980 and 2002, the largest generation ever ? and who will be running the country before too long.
Results 2,751–2,800
of 3,303 found.
