If, however, the pandemic continues into summer, it will mean the Gripping Hand is still squeezing us. Employment won’t recover and more small businesses will fail. This relief package, as large as it is, may prove necessary and maybe even too small.

Happy Year of the Ox! Today China and a number of other Asian countries celebrate the Lunar New Year, also known as the Spring Festival.

Is global GDP growth poised for a potential boom once social distancing measures ease? Read on for a visual snapshot of our GDP growth expectations around the globe.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market remains a long way from a full recovery and called on both lawmakers and the private sector to support workers.

For the first time in a long time, there’s a conversation on Wall Street about when equities might start to feel the heat from reflation signals in the bond market.

With fixed income yields stubbornly low, should clients prepay their mortgage instead of investing in bonds? I argue this question is based on a false equivalence.

With the previous week’s short-squeeze headlines behind us, investors remained optimistic about a fiscal support package, which passed the Senate by a vote of 51-50, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie.

The coronavirus pushed three dozen municipal-debt issues for senior living communities into default last year and another five have already missed payments in 2021, sowing distress in one of the nation’s safest bond markets.

We’ll touch on several bases today. We start with the latest news from the Commerce Department which just released its initial estimate of 4Q economic growth (or lack thereof). 2020 goes down as the worst economic year since the end of World War II.

Emerging markets seek a sustainable solution to debts, and the Fed takes a step toward sustainability.

Those of you with kids and grandkids may at some point have stepped inside a GameStop. If so, you might be familiar with the video game retailer’s tagline: “Power to the players.”

The COVID-19 pandemic has expanded the universe of companies in financial distress, creating a buyer’s market for distressed debt funds.

I have a problem with both growth and value demagogues.

Precious metals in general did very well in 2020, and I expect them to keep pace in 2021, supported by heightened efforts in the U.S. and elsewhere to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”

It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.

While the calendar has turned to a new year, many of the same uncertainties of 2020 still linger—namely the COVID-19 pandemic.

Donald Trump departs Washington on Wednesday with Americans more politically divided and more likely to be out of work than when he arrived, while awaiting trial for his second impeachment -- an ignominious end to one of the most turbulent presidencies in American history.

Our outlook for 2021 is formed by the need to get away from the crowd and to expect some very stormy weather in the U.S. stock market. We are not afraid of drowning. Therefore, we will review the circumstances at the bottom of the market in 2009 with today’s market to see where the crowd is and where we need to go to avoid the coming storm.

Every January, I start keeping track of the predictions for the upcoming year I hear in the financial media and from advisors and investors. With the arrival of 2021, it’s time for my final review of how the 2020 forecasts played out.

Equity markets continued a torrid run in the fourth quarter, propelling nearly all sectors and asset classes back into the black for 2020. But Q4 was defined by a notable shift in market leadership as cyclical sectors and asset classes bested defensives and growth stocks.

Economic snapback to fuel global growth. We have a very optimistic outlook for 2021, with above-consensus GDP calls around the globe.

It’s right there in the first few pages of “Trump University Branding 101”: “The truth is, everything you say and do is important,” he wrote in the 2008 book’s foreword. “Actions matter.”

This should be positive for gold, given the potential for greater government spending and, therefore, inflation.

This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.

There’s a great way the U.S. and the European Union could together address two huge challenges in one policy sweep. It’s to create a transatlantic “carbon club,” which I’ll describe in a moment.

Traders in short-term funding markets are already busy assessing the potential impact of the U.S. debt ceiling coming back into force in the second half of this year even as Congress trains its focus on more immediate matters like finalizing President-elect Joe Biden’s victory this week.

As we enter 2021, it appears that Buffett had things upside down in 2020. The things which had gone up the most by the end of 2019, went up the most in 2020.

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

And then there’s Bitcoin. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has surged nearly 220% this year, touching an all-time high of $23,717 in intraday trading on Thursday.

We’ll take a closer look at the stock market and where it may be going.

Several former world leaders, a Hong Kong media tycoon, the CEO of Theranos and Jeffrey Epstein’s confidante — all are scheduled to have their day in court next year.

On December 21, Tesla will be the largest company ever to enter the S&P 500 Index. Tesla’s skyhigh valuation, which meets our real-time definition of a bubble, conforms to the observation that market-cap-weighted indices buy high and sell low—the antithesis of prudent investing.

The meat industry is starting to get squeezed from both sides.

Some of the world’s leading countries have recently announced major sustainability targets. These moves, aimed at making economic recovery faster and more sustainable, will create investment opportunities as well.

Industrial metals are well on their way to being among the top performers of 2020, supported by red hot demand from China and global supply concerns.

At various points previously, we have discussed the debate regarding active vs. passive management. Proponents of passive management insist that active managers cannot consistently outperform a passive benchmark and therefore investors are better off to invest in lower cost index funds.

The rally in energy companies is likely premature. To understand why such may be the case, we have to review a bit of history.

Passage of last year's SECURE Act may spark increased adoption of lifetime income products in defined contribution plans. Here's why.

“Dr. Copper,” so named for the metal’s ubiquitous use in many different applications, has been ripping higher since its 52-week low in March, thanks to a number of factors including promising economic data.

Two weeks ago I talked about Peter Turchin’s idea of “elite overproduction” leading to social and economic crisis. While he doesn’t have any solutions, Turchin helps illuminate how we reached this point. Today we’ll go a little deeper and think about the implications.

For global fixed income investors, diversification is key. In our latest Q&A, Portfolio Manager Teresa Kong, CFA, discusses where she's finding opportunities across Asia today.

To the extent that stock prices reflect expectations of future value, investors don’t like the prospects for oil, and oil’s demise signals muted prospects for economic growth.

A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.

In all this tech euphoria and COVID-19 quarantining, investors are missing a key fact. People need people.

While we expect global growth to slow in the fourth quarter as many countries try to contain another wave of COVID-19, we have upgraded our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the US and China.

The tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month.

Gold “is a hedge on policymakers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years.”