With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
President Joe Biden’s administration plans one additional round of restrictions on the export of artificial intelligence chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. just days before leaving office, a final push in his effort to keep advanced technologies out of the hands of China and Russia.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
When Jaguar’s “copy nothing” brand reboot hit late last year, one self-styled car enthusiast replied on X: “What the actual hell is this.” Jaguar’s response: “The future.”
While Bitcoin’s surge above $100,000 captivated the headlines in 2024, many financial firms were more focused this year on a different type of cryptocurrency whose price is never meant to rise — or fall for that matter.
With Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, debates have reignited about the potential impact on markets, trade, and the global economy. The new administration has promised deregulation, tax cuts and a focus on energy independence.
On a rather quiet final Friday of the year, I used my Bloomberg Terminal to check how key government bond yields in advanced economies have changed in 2024.
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Recommend reading that provides a bed of knowledge for the key themes we think will define 2025. Ours differs from other lists you might see elsewhere at this time of year in that we focus on relevance rather than recency, though there are new books here, too.
The eclipse of the dollar, and with it the ability of the US to borrow on a scale that would cripple any other country, has been long predicted. For at least half a century, skeptics have counted on something — or someone — coming along to knock American assets from their perch. Don't plan for a requiem just yet.
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
US crude exports to China plunged by almost half this year as shifts in the nation’s economy weighed on demand and it bought more barrels from other countries including Russia and Iran.
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
The crypto market’s center of gravity is back in the US as 2025 approaches, courtesy of Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency and widening demand for the nation’s digital-asset funds and derivatives contracts.
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
We believe that there are several guardrails in place that considerably limit the extent of presidential influence over monetary policy decisions.
From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows.
Bitcoin extended its slide from this week’s record high to almost 15% as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve prompted traders to sell an asset that has more than doubled this year.
How a diversified liquidity strategy might help time-strapped corporate treasurers reduce vulnerabilities and improve adaptability in uncertain markets while maintaining access to cash.
Bitcoin rose to a record high on President-elect Donald Trump’s support for digital assets and optimism about the upcoming inclusion of MicroStrategy Inc., an accumulator of the token, in a key US stock gauge.
Investors anticipating another calm year in 2025 should be on guard for more shocks like the one seen in August as uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tax and tariff policies threaten to roil markets.
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
Rice paddies that lay fallow for decades in some of Japan’s most far-flung regions are now its hottest properties.
Emerging-market currencies in Asia and the South African rand retreated as China’s policy makers appeared to disappoint investors expecting fiscal measures to boost the economic outlook.
We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
CEO Ali Dibadj highlights the three macro drivers that investors must navigate in 2025 and beyond, as well as the importance of actively positioning for a brighter investment future.
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
The next few years are set to see a significant expansion in global LNG export capacity, led by North America and Qatar.
Bond traders seeking support for bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month will closely watch Friday’s US employment report for November.
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Emerging-market currencies held gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could move cautiously as they lower interest rates. The South Korean won rebounded on Wednesday as President Yoon Suk Yeol rapidly reversed his martial law declaration.
In their 2025 outlook, Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto and Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein say a changing macroeconomic backdrop could create new pockets of leadership in global equity markets.
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for the top trade position sees China as a “generational challenge” to the US and has advocated for a strategic decoupling from the country.
President-elect Donald Trump vowed additional tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, shaking markets with his first specific threats to the US’s top trading partners since his election win three weeks ago.
This week, at the North American Blockchain Summit in Dallas, Texas, I had the distinct privilege of moderating a fireside chat with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
The US bond market is finally showing signs of steadying after a two-month selloff, with investors starting to swoop in whenever yields test new peaks.
Gold tumbled as traders digested Donald Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and looked toward the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.
Donald Trump’s presidency is set to bring a fresh bout of volatility to markets, supercharging an options boom driven by retail traders.
