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The Bank of England: How to Justify Doing Nothing
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 2/3/17

Ahead of Thursday’s quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faced a relatively tricky challenge.

Popularity Up, Pound Down: Brexit and Volatility
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/28/16

Since the Conservative Party Conference earlier this month, UK asset markets have become increasingly sensitive to the UK’s prospective trading arrangements post Brexit.

Frank Holmes: “Chindia” Buying Gold on Dips, 20% Corrections Are “Non Events”
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 10/25/16

We recently had the pleasure of interviewing Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. He talks about a seasonal norm he sees playing out in the gold market over the next few months...

Lessons from Neuroscience for Financial Planners
by Mike Gregory, 10/17/16

Neuroscience teaches us how to make our brains more receptive to new ideas. My recent conflict-resolution experience working with the IRS shows how lessons from neuroscience can improve advisor-client interactions.

With Decisive Policy, Bank of England Stacks Odds in Its Favour
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 8/17/16
Look for very easy UK monetary policy to be with us for the cyclical horizon.

New Concerns of Rigged Markets and Rigged Elections
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 8/1/16
Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Rivero of WhatReallyHappened.com. Michael gives us his uncensored opinions on the recently concluded political conventions, why he sees this as a crucial election for the future of our Republic, and why he views precious metals as a must-own asset for the tumultuous times ahead.

Brexit: What’s Next for Markets, the UK and the Global Economy
by Andrew Balls, Mike Amey, Philippe Bodereau of PIMCO, 6/30/16
In the following Q&A, portfolio managers Andrew Balls, Mike Amey, and Philippe Bodereau discuss PIMCO’s outlook for the UK and the European Union amid Brexit, and assess global ramifications.

Michael Rivero on Financial Crashes, Fed Mind Games, and Election-Year Circuses
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 6/6/16
Michael Rivero: Americans herded into “giant human ranches called cities,” far less resilient & unprepared for the coming breakdown.

Energy and Debt Crisis Point to Much Higher Metals Prices
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 5/31/16
Steve St. Angelo on Silver Supply Deficit, Market Manipulation, and Debt Overhang

David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 5/24/16
We recently had the privilege of interviewing David Morgan about why he believes 2016 is going to be a pivotal year and why he thinks the coming year or two will go down in the records books.

Gordon Chang: China in Big Trouble, Could Bring Global Economy Down with It
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 5/16/16
There’s been some big news out of China lately, and today we’ll dive deeper into the discussion when I welcome in Gordon Chang. Mr. Chang is one of the foremost experts on the Chinese economy and has written a book titled The Coming Collapse of China. He’ll tell us why he believes an epic collapse is imminent and what it all means for the Western financial world and why he believes there is what he calls a Chinese floor on the gold price. Don’t miss an incredibly enlightening interview with Gordon Chang, coming up after this week’s market update.

Marc Faber on Cashless Society Insanity and Why Wall Street Hates Gold
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 2/18/16
It is my privilege now to be joined by a man who needs little introduction, Marc Faber; editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. Dr. Faber has frequently appeared on financial shows across the globe and he's a well-known Austrian school economist, and an investment adviser.

Top Silver Mining CEO: Don't Laugh, We Could See $100+ Silver
by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 2/9/16
Exclusive Interview with First Majestic CEO Keith Neumeyer on Metals, Mining, and Manipulation

Monetary Policy Stuck in the Mid?Atlantic
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 1/29/16
As we look forward to 2016, once again we are faced with the question of whether the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England (BOE) will finally raise interest rates, or whether this will prove to be another year where expectations for a move in official rates are to be dashed.

A Very British Recovery
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/8/15
The UK appears to be experiencing a typical British recovery, but needs further improvement to tolerate rising interest rates.

Fed Bolsters Investment Grade Bond Issuance
by Jacob Habibi, Mike Hyman, Matt Brill of Invesco Blog, 9/28/15
Barring an external shock that sends global risk assets lower, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged while lowering its projected pace of future rate hikes is likely to support a continuation of the heavy pace of new corporate bond issuance and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the US investment grade (IG) market.

Navigating Divergent Global ILB Markets: Why Are UK Index-Linked Gilts Persistently Overvalued?
by Mihir Worah, Mike Amey, Berdibek Ahmedov of PIMCO, 9/8/15
Current extremely low and negative real yields on UK index-linked gilts, particularly for long-dated bonds, do not appear to have any fundamental justifications.

Why We Believe the Eurozone is a Land of Opportunity
by Robert Sharpe, Mike Jolin of Heartland Advisors, 8/20/15
After years of unattractive valuations and outlook, Europe appears to be poised for a change. Here are some reasons we think there are plenty of opportunities in the region.

Are Frontier Markets the Emerging Markets of Tomorrow?
by Mike DuCharme of Russell Investments, 8/6/15
Russell Investments’ Mike DuCharme examines investment opportunities in frontier markets.

Forward Guidance Is Back at the Bank of England
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 5/21/15
The central bank seeks to reassure markets about its policy intentions and also stabilise gilt yields ahead of an anticipated rate hike in the U.S.

U.S. and Canada: Continued Recovery With Some Potential for Headwinds
by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil of PIMCO, 4/8/15
?Each quarter, PIMCO investment professionals from around the world gather in Newport Beach to discuss the firm’s outlook for the global economy and financial markets. In the following interview, portfolio managers Ed Devlin and Mike Cudzil discuss PIMCO’s cyclical outlook for Canada and the U.S..

Will the UK Election Derail the Recovery?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 4/1/15
While the economic outlook for the UK is not without risk, most notably if there is an extended period of political paralysis, the UK recovery is much better shape than during the last general election in 2010 and should stay its course. We believe the benign inflationary backdrop will aid economic growth that saw GDP gains of 0.6% for the final quarter of 2014. In an environment of subdued underlying inflationary pressures and sterling appreciating relative to its major trading partners, the Bank of England can afford to wait to tighten monetary policy.

Can ECB Policy Heal Europe’s Ills?
by Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth, Lorenzo Pagani of PIMCO, 3/25/15
In this interview, Managing Directors Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth and Lorenzo Pagani discuss the conclusions from PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum in March 2015 and how they influence our European investment strategy. They also delve into the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet expansion on growth and inflation and reflect on Europe’s improving economic health.

Recession is On the Way: Questioning One's Sanity; Beat the Crowd, Panic Now!
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 2/27/15
In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened. 50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00%

What Does the Current Low Interest Rate Environment Mean for Agency MBS?
by Mike Cudzil, Daniel Hyman of PIMCO, 2/17/15
After the agency MBS market in 2014 was dominated by low volatility, limited prepayment risk and strong performance, the strong rally in U.S. Treasuries in January resulted in just the opposite. With the Fed ending net purchases of MBS in October 2014, it seems unlikely for the private investment community to take the Fed’s place in the MBS market at this level of interest rates and spreads. PIMCO expects the environment for MBS in 2015 to be quite the opposite of 2014, resulting in higher volatility, cheaper valuations and more attractive excess return opportunities for the active manager.

Diving Into the Payroll Report: Wages Rebound (But Don't Get Too Excited), Revisions, Huge Jump in L
by Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 2/6/15
Wages rebounded from the dip last month (but don't get too excited as per details below). Also, there were big upward revisions to many prior numbers. The unemployment rate rose this month because of a huge increase in the labor force. The civilian institutional population also leaped this month, and apparently these newly-found people are all looking for work.

Your Alpha is My Beta
by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of Butler, Philbrick, Gordillo & Associates, 2/5/15
A couple of weeks ago, I had the pleasure of a short correspondence with Lars Kestner, a well known quant and derivatives trader, and creator of the thoughtful K-ratio as a measure of risk adjusted performance. We connected on the definition of alpha, and how the term has been so abused in media and marketing as to become almost meaningless.

Germany's "Time Pressure" Thesis; Noose Tightens on Europe
by Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 2/5/15
Today German Chancellor Angela Merkel proclaimed Greek Diplomatic Offensive Is Failing. Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc in parliament has agreed not to give in to any “bad compromise that “defacto adds up to a debt writedown,” Hans-Peter Friedrich, a deputy leader of the caucus, said in an interview today.

Australia Coming Apart at the Seams
by Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 2/4/15
With the huge spotlight on Europe, Greece, the US Dollar, Canada, Switzerland, and China, it's easy to lose track of major things outside of mainstream attention. Like what? Like Australia. Australian Government on Brink of Collapse

Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate?
by Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 2/4/15
On Linked-In, Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton proclaims 5.6% unemployment is "The Big Lie". And it is. I have talked about this for years, but perhaps it would be interesting to hear the same thing from a CEO of a big agency. I picked this story up from ZeroHedge.

Diving Into the ISM: What's It All Mean?
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 2/3/15
This morning the Institute for Supply Management released its much followed Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Wait and See at the Bank of England
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 1/22/15
UK growth looks to be sustainable, with encouraging domestic demand, though we need to see business investment continue to pick up. Although inflation hovering below the 1% lower tolerance band of the Bank of England (BOE) remains a concern, we think it actually gives the central bank welcome breathing room during a period of uncertainty for the global economy. Looking ahead, we see compelling investment value in the intermediate part of the UK yield curve, namely five- to 10-year bonds, as the BOE plays the waiting game.

Dow 20,000: Is 2015 the Year
by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, Rodrigo Gordillo of Butler, Philbrick, Gordillo & Associates, 1/16/15
It?s that time of year again. Yup, that jolly, happy time of year when the soothsayers of Wall Street start trumpeting their views on what?s going to happen in 2015, and how to position portfolios to profit. Esteemed Wharton professor, Jeremy Siegel, author of the permabull bible, Stocks for the Long Run, recently joined the merry parade with his own forecast that Dow 20,000 ?could happen? in 2015. Astute investors might take stakes now in large manufacturers of confetti, party horns, and streamers.

Recovery Gaining Momentum?
by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil, Lupin Rahman of PIMCO, 1/9/15
U.S. growth will remain robust over the cyclical horizon due to increasing consumption driven by the narrowing unemployment gap and increase in disposable incomes. The Canadian recovery should continue, though divergent forces ? including the U.S. recovery and oil price declines ? could have significant implications for the economy. Growth will be muted across Latin America, with some economies benefitting from U.S. growth, and others dragged down by the slowdown in the eurozone and China.

Fed "Mystified" Why Millennials Still Live at Home; My Answer May Surprise You
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 11/25/14
A New York Fed research paper wonders Whats Keeping Millennials at Home? Is it Debt, Jobs, or Housing?

Factors: An Essential Part of Any Nutritious Portfolio
by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, Rodrigo Gordillo of Dundee Goodman Private Wealth, 11/11/14
We recently posted a piece on factor investing so we were thrilled to have an opportunity to see Dr. Andrew Ang and Don Raymond discuss factor investing at a seminar in Toronto last week.

Japanese Style Deflation Coming? Fed Falling Behind the Curve?
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 10/24/14
There's some interesting discussion points in the UK-based Absolute Return Partners October 2014 Letter, by Niels C. Jensen, most of which I agree with, others not.

Is the UK Getting Back to Business as Usual??
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/13/14
In light of the generally buoyant economy, we may start to see more normal conditions returning to the UK labour market and, importantly, upward movement in wage growth over the cyclical horizon. In turn, these developments are critical for the conduct and timing of monetary policy and the behaviour of the Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee. We believe investors may want to treat the BOE's interest rate cycle with caution in shorter-maturity bonds, while valuations offer more protection in intermediate bonds given PIMCO's New Neutral thesis of secularly low real interest rates.

Financial Repression (and How to Defend Yourself From It)
by Mike Shedlock of Doug Short, 10/3/14
I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Gordon Long last week. Gordon is publisher and editor of Gordon T Long Macro Analytics. The topic was "Financial Repression". What is financial repression? I defined it as "a set of fiscal and monetary policies for the expressed benefit of the ruling class: politicians, banks, and the already wealthy, at the expense of everyone else." In the video, I give numerous examples of repression, noting that central bank sponsored inflation is the epitome of financial repression. We also discuss what to do about financial repression.

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: Recovery Remains Intact, Yet Uneven
by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil, Lupin Rahman of PIMCO, 10/2/14
U.S. growth can potentially exceed expectations over the cyclical horizon, in part bolstered by a healing consumer and a very accommodative Federal Reserve. While real growth in Canada has been modest in recent years, it increased to 3.1% in the second quarter and we expect that positive momentum to continue this year. In Latin America, we expect growth will pick up for the region as a whole with outperformance by smaller economies like Colombia and Panama.

Forget Active vs. Passive: It's All About Factors
by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, Rodrigo Gordillo of Butler, Philbrick, Gordillo & Associates, 10/1/14
We just love a good debate, and there seems to be quite a heated debate at the moment about the relative utility of passive versus active investing. Perhaps this debate is as timeless as investment management itself, but a flurry of recent studies may have finally armed passive advocates with enough ammunition to settle the argument once and for all.

Approaching a Tipping Point
by Mike Boyle of Advisors Asset Management, 6/25/14
On Thursday, June 19, the S&P 500 made it 66th new high of this bull market and unfortunately, based on almost any metric available, one could argue that the U.S. equity markets are due for at least a mild correction or more.

Is There a UK Housing Bubble????
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 5/29/14
We see the UK experiencing a very traditional monetary cycle involving lower mortgage rates, higher house prices and then hopefully higher transactions. The Bank of England can address rising house prices either by raising financing costs via the banking system or by raising interest rates. Markets will watch BoE activity closely. Our expectation is for a gradual and modest interest rate cycle, with low rates in the UK economy for years to come. Housing may be an overvalued asset, but one that is secularly supported by low rates.

Mixed Signals and the Road Less Traveled
by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners, 5/16/14
As the markets flirt with all-time highs and a potential shift in Fed policy, earnings season has not altered the fact that the level of investor uncertainty feels elevated. Throw in the case of a really bad winter, a geopolitical environment that rhymes with events just prior to World War I, and poor trading volumes, and it all suggests that heightened levels of unease remain.

Henny Pennies
by Tony Crescenzi, Mike Amey, Tadashi Kakuchi, Ben Emons of PIMCO, 4/28/14
While the Fed?s qualitative guidance may have increased uncertainties over monetary policy, volatility will likely remain contained by powerful short- and long-run forces related to the economic outlook. In the UK, we should at least respect the risk of a hike late in the first quarter of 2015, earlier than what is currently priced in. In Japan, we believe the BOJ will remain full throttle on its current monetary easing for some time.

A Sustainable Recovery??
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 3/27/14
Early signs indicate that the long awaited increase in business investment is underway. In turn, that bodes well for real income growth and the sustainability of the economic recovery. Given the improved economic prospects and the change in rhetoric at the Bank of England, the central bank could well be an early adopter of tighter monetary policy. We expect the BoE to hike rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve. While we beli?eve the British pound has already reflected the BoE?s guidance for official rates to rise by mid-2015, the bond market has yet to fully reflect the new environment. ?

Broadleaf's 2014 Investment Playbook
by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners, 1/27/14
Most sell side firms publish their outlook for the economy and stock market at the end of December and in early January. As a buy side firm, we really arent under any expectation to share our outlook for the coming year and, as funny as it might sound, some of our clients dont even care to know what we think, only that we handle what they hired us to do, which is to outperform the market indices over a full market cycle and help them attain their financial goals over time.

Reflections on 2013: What's Important, What's Not, and What's Ahead
by Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management, 1/6/14
A tale of 2 halves with lingering questions characterizes what we can say was the story for housing for 2013. In the first half of the year, rates were low as the 10 year note was well under 2%. People were still refinancing, as home prices rocketed. Multiple bids were common, and pundits like Ivy Zelman cheered the improving market with praise like "Housing is in Nirvana".

2013 A Pretty Good Year
by Mike Temple of Pioneer Investments, 12/17/13
This time last year we were bullish about equities and positive on the slow but steady strengthening of the economy. The market did not disappoint. The economy was almost heroic, you might say, with its performance enduring government sequestrations and higher taxes almost a 2% drag on GDP but comporting with our expectations of 2 - 2.5% growth. 2013 is ending with GDP and the markets coming fairly close to what we thought theyd achieve. Now the year is almost out, so lets take stock of 2013 but look ahead to 2014.

A Much Better Dilemma
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 12/16/13
While the UK economy is likely to avoid reverting to growth levels of recent years, it must transition into a more durable recovery involving business investment, higher productivity and stronger real wages. However, headwinds for domestic demand look significant and the banking system appears to favour secured lending to consumers over businesses. We believe that much of the rise in bond yields is already behind us. With clearer value in shorter bonds, our preference lies in short and intermediate gilts.
Results 251–300 of 415 found.