Understanding the Confucian in Xi's Populism
China has dropped norms to allow President Xi Jinping to remain in power after his second term ends. While worrisome at first blush, the populist turn and consolidation of power likely has near-term economic and financial market benefits, and longer-term political risks. Thornburg's Lei Wang weighs in on the populist turn in China, which is among a growing contingent of populist nations.
Emerging Markets: Keep an Eye on Reform
Economic reforms remain critical for emerging economies' attempts to successfully transition from low-wage industrial economies to high-skilled, consumption-based economies.
Emperor Xi: Part II
Last week, we discussed China’s power structure and how the suspension of term limits changes recent precedents. This week, we continue this topic by analyzing China’s challenges while shifting from the world’s high growth/low cost producer to a slower growth, “normal” economy.
The Historic Bull Market Faces Off Against Steel Tariffs
No doubt you’ve heard before that bull markets don’t die of old age. I can’t say for sure what will end this particular business cycle—no one can—but we’re seeing huge shifts in monetary and fiscal policy right now that investors can’t afford to ignore. As I often say, government policy is a precursor to change.
Environmental, Social and Governance Factors in Global Macro Investing
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors are being recognized in fixed income investing as value-added indicators of potential economic performance. In the latest edition of “Global Macro Shifts,” the Templeton Global Macro team outlines how it integrates ESG factors into its research process.
Materiality Matters: Targeting the Esg Issues That Can Impact Performance
We’ve developed a new way to measure a company’s ESG (environmental, social and governance) score. Our research suggests that these material ESG scores can potentially provide more insight than traditional ESG scores.
Are Trump's Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Good for America?
President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff on imported steel and aluminum, at 25 percent and 10 percent, is much more than a shot across the bow. Indeed, this could be the official kickoff of the trade war we all anticipated. The protectionist trade policy, announced this week as the president met with metals executives, raised fresh inflation worries and had an immediate impact on capital markets.
More Trouble for the Equity Markets Ahead
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Three Market Concerns Move to the Fore
Last week brought renewed focus to three areas of concern that I’ve been writing about for some time: populism, protectionism and pressure on debtors. It appears that we may be moving closer to certain outcomes that could be of concern to markets.
1-on-1 With Michael Hasenstab: Market Changes and Challenges
Hasenstab shares his thoughts on navigating today’s market challenges. He covers recent market volatility, inflationary threats in the United States, upcoming elections in Latin America, potential “fault lines” in Europe and credit risk in China.
The end of 2016 through the beginning of 2018 had been one of the least volatile periods in recorded stock market history. It was THE least volatile by one measure – for the 404 trading days through the beginning of February, the market never had a five percent correction – the longest streak on record.
Freddie, Fannie, Finis?
Given the events of a decade ago, 2018 promises to be a year filled with reminiscence. Chroniclers will recall the signs of the gathering storm: falling U.S. house prices, rising mortgage defaults and spreading institutional failures.
A $1.5 Trillion Opportunity You Don’t Want to Miss!
On the campaign trail, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump pledged to invest as much as $1 trillion in U.S. infrastructure if he were elected. This week during his first State of the Union address, now-President Trump added half a trillion dollars more to that figure.
Fossil Fuel Divestment – What’s Next for Investors and Advisors?
New York City will be the first city to divest from fossil fuels for its pension plans. The question is what does divestment mean? And what does divestment look like at the portfolio level?