Search Results
Results 2,901–2,950
of 3,332 found.
The Fed, Inflation, and the Perfect Storm in Gold Miners
Neither hopes of job creation nor fears of inflation (based on the massive expansion of the monetary base since late 2008) have thus far materialized. Total credit creation (i.e. money supply) during most of the last five years either shrank or barely grew despite massive growth in the monetary base. Nominal GDP (growth plus inflation) grows in response to total expansion of credit (both from the Fed and the banking system), not just the monetary base.
The Myth of the Most Efficient Market
Perception of the U.S. large cap value market is that its the most efficient in the world, and therefore the hardest category for managers to outperform the benchmark. As a result, index funds and ETFs have been gaining dramatic market share. Our latest whitepaper debunks conventional thinking with empirically-proven factors that have significantly outperformed in the U.S. large cap space.
The Truth Does Not Change According To Our Ability To Stomach It
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
The stock market is presently at valuations where not only cyclical but secular bear markets have started. A secular bear period comprises a series of cyclical bull-bear periods where valuations gradually work their way lower at each successive cyclical trough. The past 13 years of paltry overall total returns for the S&P 500 have unfortunately corrected very little of the excess in 2000, largely thanks to yet another round of Fed-enabled speculation. We should have learned how these episodes end.
Debt Crisis Recovery: Bell Curves and Balance Sheets
by John Greenwood of Invesco Blog,
This three-part series examines the life cycle of a debt crisis and looks at where the US, UK and eurozone are in the recovery process. This first post explains the phases of a debt crisis. Part 2 will look at where the US stands in the deleveraging process, while Part 3 will focus on why the UK and eurozone lag the US in balance-sheet repair.
Why Investing in High Quality Companies is More Important Today than Ever
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
One of the first rules a new financial advisor learns is that success in the business has nothing to do with how well your clients do in creating or maintaining wealth. Success is measured by how much wealth the advisor creates for him or herself. The same rule extends beyond the local advisor to the great halls of institutional management.
Fixed Income Markets Slog Forward
by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent,
The past five years have seen a dramatic influx of investor capital into corporate credit markets. As investors jumped into the market, there is growing concern that credit markets are nearing stretched valuations. Those concerns are likely premature, particularly with central bank intervention in place.
Active Share. Toward a Stock Picker’s Market?
Explore five groups of mutual funds-from stock pickers to moderately active to the closet indexers. Which categories produced the best risk-adjusted return 1990-2009? The more different the portfolio from its benchmarks, the greater the range of possible outcomes. Consider a tool like active share.
Investing in China? What You Should Know About Gaining Access to the Markets
Investors with exposure to China and those interested in gaining a foot into the country received some good news last month when it was announced that Chinas GDP grew by 7.8% in the third quarter. The news was a sigh of relief for investors as Chinas economy appears to have avoided the hard landing economists and investors had feared.
"Fixed" Income Investing is Broken
Back in June of this year, the Fixed Income (a.k.a. bond) market may have experienced the defining moment of this generation of investors. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond moved above 3.50% for the first time since the summer of 2011. It stands at about 3.80% now. After many fake-outs, this could be the start of a long-term trajectory higher.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Up, up, and away. Stocks surged for the sixth straight week, the S&P 500s longest such streak since February 2013, as institutional investors welcomed remarked from the future Fed Chair (?) and "mom and pops" finally decided to join in the fun (better late than never). Suddenly Dow 16k, Nasdaq 4k, and, heck, even S&P 2k are well within reach. What financial debacle?
Asset Class Allocation and Portfolios: Critique and Complication
by Adam Jared Apt,
In Part 1 of this essay, I explained that for asset class allocation to become an investment practice, it required a foundation of theory. And Modern Portfolio Theory was that foundation. But today, most financial journalists and investment advisors who proffer advice centered on asset class allocation are?if I may judge from their writings?oblivious of this. And why shouldn’t they be? Theory is abstract and difficult to apprehend.
October 2013 Market Commentary
The Feds decision in September to maintain its policy of asset purchases, better known as Quantitative Easing (QE), caught the broader market by surprise. Fed tapering of QE was broadly expected to begin in September. The Feds decision to delay the reduction of QE pushed back the date upon which anticipated tapering would begin. This resulted in a meaningful rally in Treasury bond prices in September. To the surprise of many media pundits calling for ever higher interest rates, US Treasury yields ended October at 2.55%, virtually unc
Ignoble Prizes and Appointments
by Jeremy Grantham of GMO,
Chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham comments on this years Nobel Prize in economics and "the most laughable of all assumption-based theories, the Efficient Market Hypothesis"; candidates to succeed Chairman Bernanke at the Fed; the impact of commodity price rises and the housing bubble in the crash of 2008; and prospects for the U.S. equity market.
The Muddle-Through Economy and Grind-Higher Equity Market Continue
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
U.S. equities finished higher last week as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs, marking the sixth straight week of advances.1 Several macroeconomic themes are important as third quarter earnings season comes to an end. Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen spoke before the Senate in support of current monetary policy and suggested a similar path under her leadership. Economic data was mixed for the week, and any economic weakness continues to be perceived as supporting a delay in tapering. In turn, this can be seen as positive for equities.
Schwab Impact Conference 2013 - Finally! Some Good News from D.C.
Earlier this week my wife (who doubles as Sungardens Director of Operations) joined me for three days in Washington D.C. at the Schwab IMPACT conference for investment advisors. To me, this is the biggest show of the year in our industry and the Capital edition continued the traditional mix of new ideas, networking and a feeling at the end once described by David Letterman as Im tiredbut its a nice kind of tired. Here are some brief highlights and what I think the implications are (if any) for what we are doing for our clients now and in the times ahead.
The ECB Rate Cut - Too Little and Too Late
by John Greenwood of Invesco Blog,
The decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) last week to cut its main refinancing rate from 0.5% to 0.25% and the marginal lending facility from 1.00% to 0.75% is too little and too late -- and virtually irrelevant to financial markets. The decision came after published data showed the eurozone headline consumer price index slowing to 0.7% year-on-year in October. Of course the equity markets rallied temporarily in a knee-jerk reaction to the ECBs move, but by the end of the day most of the gains were lost.
Has Washington Drama Taken Its Toll On MLPs?
They did it! They blew it up! shouts Charlton Heston in the iconic ending scene of the film Planet of the Apes when he finds out he has been living on a post-nuclear war planet Earth. Americans are probably having some of the same feelings about our current world resulting from the ongoing political nuclear war raging in our nations capital.
Investing Megatrends: New Technology
This whitepaper discusses how: The Data Deluge we are experiencing is one of the worlds durable investment themes; Significant capital investments in data infrastructure provide structural support for this trend; Many companies can benefit from the collection, analysis, transmission and storage of data
That Was the Week That Was?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
That Was the Week That Was, informally TWTWTW or TW3, was a satirical comedy program on BBC television in 1962 and 1963. It was devised, produced, and directed by Ned Sherrin and presented by David Frost. An American version by the same name aired on NBC from 1964 to 1965, also featuring David Frost. And last week was just such a week for me.
Health Care: Rx for Growth and Defense
by Ted Samulowitz of Invesco Blog,
The Capital Asset Pricing Model, used to price risky securities, suggests growth and defensive investments are mutually exclusive because the more an asset can return, the higher its risk must be. But growth itself can provide defensive benefits when a secular growth story occurs regardless of the business cycle.
TIPS Post Modest Returns in Third Quarter
by Steve Percoco of Lark Research,
After a very rough second quarter, TIPS posted modest returns in the 2013 third quarter. By our calculations, TIPS gained 0.97% in the quarter, better than the 0.19% gain on comparable maturity straight Treasury securities. After the sharp second quarter sell-off, bargain hunters found value in the intermediate maturities for both TIPS and straight Treasurys.
Asset Allocation: Pie in the Face?
The typical approach to spreading ones assets in order to diversify and conquer, is to have the client complete a risk tolerance questionnaire. That survey is important not only to establish guidelines for how the assets will be managed, but also because some form of it is required by securities regulators to make sure advisors know who their clients are. The magical conclusion usually includes a color pie chart, representing a variety of asset classes that are assumed to be a path toward asset growth and preservation of capital.
Float Research: Investors Pour $54.2 Billion into All Equity MFs and ETFs in October
by Minyi Chen of AdvisorShares,
ETF flows suggest stocks will have a tough time moving much higher. Inflows into leveraged short ETFs stopped in the past week, which is a cautionary sign from a contrarian perspective. Even more worrisome, investors are pouring money into equities. All equity mutual funds and ETFs received $54.2 billion in October, the third-largest inflow on record.
The Underperformance Culprit
Each year we are reminded of the fact that active management systemically underperforms the benchmark. The scorecards come in, and the tally is drilled back into our consciousness. But has the now long-tenured debate of active versus passive offered us much in the way of new perspective over the last several decades?
Why Worry About a Melt-Up?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
The risk of a melt-up in stocks is garnering more attention; and is something weve been discussing recently, too. Sentiment does appear stretched in the near-term and warns of a possible pullback. But there are few, if any, bubble-like conditions present and fundamentals ex-sentiment appear healthy.
The Key Issues in Today’s Muni Bond Market
Investing in high quality municipal bonds paying a predictable cash flow and returning your principal at the end of the investment is a well-trodden system for lifetime economic success. In this article we discuss some key issues in purchasing municipal bonds to help you make wise choices for your investing system.
The Great Stall of China
While China is without question the growth driver and the outperformer among Asian emerging markets, its clear the country is transitioning toward slower growth because of demographic factors and domestic rebalancing. In our view, China is entering a multiyear period of slower growth, but we consider its future growth robust and sustainable when compared with overall global gross domestic product (GDP) growth -- albeit below the annualized pace of more than 10% China experienced from 2001 to 2010.
Fund Flows Shift Dramatically This Year as Investors Embrace Risk
by Minyi Chen of AdvisorShares,
The Federal Reserve has been trying for almost five years to coax savers and investors into stocks by printing money to inflate the prices of assets in general and U.S. stocks in particular. The Fed finally seems to be succeeding. We are witnessing the biggest shift in fund flows since the crash of 2008.
Puerto Rico: Always the money owing
We have not recommended or purchased Puerto Rico bonds for 12 years. This is not because we thought that Puerto Rico would imminently default. Rather, we did not like the low ratings and the Commonwealths ubiquitous and growing debt. We view an investment in bonds as a way to control risk, not to make outsized returns.
Defining the EM Corporate Bond Opportunity
Finance is a numbers business. Investors study prices, yields, rates of return. However, when it comes to sizing up emerging markets, we think they should also pay attention to semantics. In the past, terming a country “emerging” made it synonymous with low credit quality and higher risk. But today, many emerging markets boast strong credit profiles while parts of the developed world buckle under heavy debt loads.
Weekly Market Commentary
With most of the political wrangling and debate nearly over, one hopes, we are left to deal with the residue of their cacophony. Politically, Im not astute enough to try and unravel the truths and un-truths spoken during the government budget debate and shutdown. But as an economic scientist, the numbers reveal an extraordinary landscape of congruent trendlines, missed opportunities, and plausible strategies for safely navigating the next 3 months.
Glory Days: Could They Come Back for US Equities?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
A "great rotation" may not be underway by individual investors; even amid record-breaking outflows from bond funds this summer. But fund flow data do show some shift in preferences and highlight the sensitivity of investors to any rise in longer-term interest rates. A more interesting place to look is at the fiduciary community; that has decidedly shifted its attention away from traditional equities (and fixed income) over the past decade.
Bond Legend Dan Fuss on Rising Rates
by Robert Huebscher,
Having just celebrated his 80th birthday, Dan Fuss can claim a unique achievement ? his tenure in the fixed income markets has spanned a full market cycle, from the great bear market that began in the early 1950s through the equally great bull market that commenced in 1981. Fuss said today’s environment most closely resembles what he confronted in the late 1950s, when long-term rates were 3% and beginning their march upwards.
How Many Monkeys Does it Take to Find a Successful Strategy?
Give a monkey enough darts and she will eventually hit the bulls-eye on a dartboard. We wouldn’t dare consider that monkey an expert dart thrower, but investment professionals have been using essentially that same logic to assert that their strategies ? often called “smart betas” ? will outperform the market. New research exposes the faulty mathematics upon which such claims are based.
Rolling Returns: A Better Way to Measure Performance
Though calendar-year returns are among the more common measurements of a portfolio’s performance, rolling returns arguably offer a more compelling story. They provide a particularly robust analytical tool for evaluating manager performance, especially during volatile periods.
The Boys Are Back in Town
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The boys are indeed back in town as Washington D.C. opened its doors for business as usual last week following a contentious debt ceiling debate and a 16-day shutdown of the government. This outcome had been anticipated in these letters for often-stated reasons, and just like when the fiscal cliff was averted, I now expect the media to turn its focus to the next Armageddon.
Looking Past the Politics: What Does the Market Need to Grow?
by Ron Sloan of Invesco Blog,
As the tone of the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington wavered over the past several days, equity markets rose and fell in kind. While lawmakers were able to come to a last-minute agreement to raise the debt ceiling and end the 16-day federal government shutdown, the key to putting the markets on a solid foundation for the longer term is for corporations to generate earnings growth through increased revenues.
Consumer Confidence Plunging Recession Ahead?
The stalemate in Washington continues, the government remains in partial shutdown and the debt ceiling looms on Thursday. A bipartisan deal to fund the government until January 15 and raise the debt limit until early February is working its way through the Senate and could be voted on later today or tomorrow. It is unlikely that the Senate bill will pass in the House, which is reportedly working on yet another bill (see link below) that is unlikely to pass in the Senate.
Trying To Beat The Market Is A Fool's Errand
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Proponents of indexing as the best investment strategy seemed to take great delight in reporting how the vast majority of professionally managed portfolios (mutual funds, separately managed accounts, hedge funds, ETFs, etc.) fail to outperform the S&P 500. Therefore, they argue, it is best not to even try. Investors should simply invest in index funds and forget about it.
Is Your Portfolio a Five-Tool Player?
In baseball a 5-Tool Player is one who has high-level abilities in these areas: hitting for power, hitting for average, running, fielding and throwing. 5-Tool Players are a special breed, and teams covet them. I have identified 5 tools a premier investment approach should have in order to be successful in our arena, the achievement of client goals and growth of advisory practices.
Just Like Yesterday
In his latest essay, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, with help from Chetan Parikh, of Indias Capital Ideas Online, provides excerpts from and commentary on a 1971 speech by iconic investor David L. Babson. He begins by noting: "It is eerie how timely this speech, delivered 42 years ago, remains today."
Move Along, Market: It's Only a Gaper's Delay
by Rick Golod of Invesco Blog,
After several days of stalemate between the White House and Congress, House Republicans have offered a six-week debt ceiling extension conditional on negotiating a package of fiscal concessions. The debt ceiling offer is straightforward, but the shutdown would continue until the fiscal concessions are agreed on. While this may dampen the economy and equity market, at least in the short run, I believe long-term investors should stay put and be patient.
Frustrating the Most People
A venerable sage once said, "The markets do whatever they have to do to frustrate the most people." For the long-duration investor, this means that you need to look at what people are invested in to determine where the frustration will come from. Thanks to the Associated Press, we know what the masses have done with their investments in the last five years.
Equity ETF Flows Send Bullish Signals
by Minyi Chen of AdvisorShares,
U.S. Equity ETFs gave up $4.3 billion in the week ended October 1, reversing a $3.4 billion inflow in the previous week. This weeks outflows signal low demand for stocks, a bullish short-term indicator from a contrarian perspective.
Results 2,901–2,950
of 3,332 found.
