Even with Republicans poised to control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, slim congressional majorities could hinder the president’s efforts to enact his agenda.
In a week with a U.S. presidential election and market volatility, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate 25 basis points (bps) as expected. Amid this noise and the generally positive messages from recent macro data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that downside economic risks had decreased, but the policy rate remains above neutral, suggesting that gradual cuts are still likely to come over time.
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
Alpha (α) is a fundamental yet poorly understood concept in finance. Simply put, it is the difference between the return of an investment and that of a risk-adjusted benchmark. In a more advanced definition, alpha is the residual in an asset pricing equation (see Appendix A). Alpha is what active managers strive to achieve and passive managers do not pursue.
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
Balanced risks to inflation and employment indicate it’s time for the Fed to normalize interest rates, enhancing a positive backdrop for bonds.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
In his annual Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Powell assessed the post-pandemic U.S. economy and suggested rate cuts are coming soon.
In this PIMCO Perspectives, we explore the dispersion playing out across monetary policy and financial markets.
The central bank’s latest policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest that an initial interest rate cut could come as soon as September.
While the European Central Bank kept policy rates unchanged, the next cut is likely to be delivered soon.
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
Comparing public fixed income and private credit markets involves weighing factors related to liquidity, transparency, credit quality, risk premium, and opportunity costs.
Good news on U.S. inflation in May did not sway the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could come sooner.
While the European Central Bank cut policy rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% on its deposit facility, the trajectory beyond June remains unclear.
The global economy continues to recover from pandemic aftershocks, including trade dislocations, outsize monetary and fiscal interventions, a prolonged inflation surge, and bouts of severe financial market volatility. At PIMCO’s 2024 Secular Forum, we explored how the aftereffects of those disruptions are producing some unexpectedly positive developments while introducing longer-term risks.
April’s U.S. inflation report likely offers some comfort to Federal Reserve officials, but rate cuts are unlikely until we see a more substantial deceleration in inflation.
With the potential for higher-for-longer yields across countries, we see the global fixed income opportunity set as the most attractive in years.
In this PIMCO Perspectives, we examine how the return of elevated bond yields comes at an opportune time to consider shifting out of cash.
Shifting dynamics among global economies and markets present a range of opportunities for multi-asset portfolios.
Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Various methods to estimate this key bond market gauge differ on details but appear to signal rising investor compensation.
While the European Central Bank refrained from declaring victory at its April meeting, a June rate cut seems increasingly likely.
The March U.S. inflation report and other macro data will likely prompt a change in the Federal Reserve’s trajectory in 2024.
The global investment landscape is set to be transformed in the months ahead as the trajectories of major economies diverge more noticeably.
After two volatile years, we believe conditions are especially compelling for fixed income.
Recent signals from major central banks suggest challenges ahead with easing monetary policy amid above-target inflation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has bid farewell to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP), yield-curve control (YCC) and quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), marking the end of an era of extraordinary monetary easing.
Federal Reserve officials appear locked in for multiple rate cuts this year, despite inflation reaccelerating – raising questions about the speed and timing of this easing cycle.
While market pricing looks more reasonable, European Central Bank rate cuts, which could commence in June, are unlikely to be delivered as aggressively as the market expects in 2024.
This PIMCO Perspectives assesses how the term premium’s 40-year downturn could start to reverse.
OPEC+ strategies and geopolitical tensions could roil markets.
Adding real assets to a stock and bond portfolio can help boost returns and smooth volatility when inflation runs above 2%.
Debt levels will likely continue to rise absent policy changes, and the yield curve is likely to steepen.
Many investors remain in cash, but we think it’s time to shift exposure to bonds.
The Federal Reserve sees progress on inflation, but wants more certainty before it’s prepared to lower the policy rate.
While interest rates have presumably peaked, we remain skeptical that rate cuts will be delivered as forcefully as the market expects.
Municipals experienced their strongest two-month performance since 1986 during the final two months of 2023.
There are material short- and long-term implications for hydrocarbon markets following the COP28 meeting in Dubai, including tailwinds to oil.
Municipal bonds posted their best performance of the year, and we believe municipal credit conditions remain strong.
Starting portfolio yields may be a better guide to optimal spending than knowledge of future market returns.
The market anticipates a swift shift in the Fed cycle.
While the ECB is unlikely to raise rates further, we remain skeptical that it will deliver rate cuts as early as the market expects.
The dearth of homes for sale has underpinned the housing market’s surprising resilience and may further lift home prices despite reduced affordability.
As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
In our 2024 outlook, bonds emerge as a standout asset class, offering strong prospects, resilience, diversification, and attractive valuations compared with equities.
