Many factors are holding down inflation, U.S. jobs growth continues to surprise and China’s bad loans are getting worse.
Rumors of a contraction to start the year were overblown. Since March, a string of positive economic headlines have helped soothe investor sentiment and maintain economic momentum. We are still in a growth cycle with room to run.
Wie Gehts mit Deutschland?; Jump-Starting U.S. Startups; Big Data Is Changing Inflation
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.
We expect the USMCA to be ratified eventually. But it could take longer than anticipated, and the political environment across North America creates substantial uncertainty.
Today’s government finances add to tomorrow’s problems; The strong U.S. dollar is a mixed blessing; Prisons are expensive for both taxpayers and inmates
The proposed nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the board of governors threaten to compromise the Fed’s strong character. Both have been major fundraisers for the president, and both have pledged to use their posts on the Board to support the White House program. They seem intent on bringing a political agenda into a forum that tries to operate without one.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Despite its name, MMT is not modern. It is the latest iteration of the idea of monetizing the debt, relying on a central bank to create demand for a country’s bonds. The Bank of Japan routinely buys all Japanese government bonds on the open market, keeping borrowing costs near zero despite a massive government debt. Japan has not imploded under this debt burden, but it has stagnated. Government intervention reduced a crisis, but did not unlock growth.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
The Expansion’s Endgame?; Latin America: Caught In The Middle; What The Yield Curve Is (And Isn’t) Telling Us
Brexit May-hem; Is the Dot Plot Shot?; Getting Kids to Finish College
A New Normal For The Fed Balance Sheet; How Tariffs Work…and Don't Work; The ECB Goes Back To The TLTRO Well
The Northern Trust Economics team shares our view on growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.
I was born too early to benefit much from Sesame Street, but I still loved The Muppets. Kermit the Frog was my favorite character; alternatively in full control and overwhelmed, Kermit struggled to make sense of the nonsensical. To this day, there are times that I feel confronted with the same challenge.
The U.S. economy has shifted into a lower gear, growth has been falling in the Eurozone, Brexit is festering and China is feeling the heat from internal imbalances and an elevated trade spat with the U.S.
Amazon HQ2 shows the limits of local economic development incentives; China and the U.S. break through a wall in negotiations; and The Fed ponders new approaches to inflation targeting
GSE reform is in sight, China’s stimulus falls short, and bank mergers are back.
The Economics team explores a smooth economic slowdown, elevated consumer confidence, and troubles in Italy.
The U.S. economy is finding its rhythm after an uncertain start to the year.
As we enter tax season, we explore the collection and use of individual income taxes.
Central banks face a difficult year. Eurozone economies are slowing. And the U.S. government shutdown can’t be ignored.
Weakness in the Chinese economy is becoming clearer, while the way forward for Brexit is anything but clear. And what exactly does "tighter financial conditions" mean?
Markets struggle to price new risks, and the U.S. government shutdown grows in severity.
The U.S. economy will overcome risks and continue to grow in 2019.
Major economies are positioned to keep growing in the year ahead, but risks are mounting.
Six themes emerge as we look back on a busy year of economic news.
Several years into the recovery from the global economic crisis, the jobs of central banks have only become more difficult. How are indebtedness, inequality, inflation and instability contributing to their problems, and what can we expect from future interest rate decisions?
Economic growth will continue, even in volatile markets.
Private, public and international pension plans are all due for a reckoning.
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.
Senior Economist Ryan Boyle looks at how America accumulated so many student loans, and how best to deal with them going forward.
Dramatic events surrounding Brexit left Theresa May’s government balancing on a precipice. What are the economic implications? Later in the column, we examine U.S. drug prices and possible solutions to exploding costs.
The World Trade Organization plays a crucial role in global trade. How essential is it, and what can we expect as trade tensions rise?
How will the results of the U.S. midterm elections be reflected in trade agreements, legislation and international relations?
With unemployment low and wages rising as we enter the holiday season, consumer spending will continue to lead economic growth.
This week, we evaluate the potential near-term futures of nationalism, inflation, demographic shifts, emerging markets and the effects of prosperity. What trends can we expect to encounter?
Is the International Monetary Fund a useful tool in preventing economic dysfunction? Or, as the nationalists claim, are there more appropriate uses of capital?
With USMCA and Brexit negotiations, nations are reworking the world’s most fundamental trade agreements. How will these new treaties affect global relations?
What do a Nobel Prize, oil prices and employee compensation have in common? Change. The Nobel committee tipped its hat to the importance of recognizing climate change with its prize for Economic Sciences. But changes in oil’s global role and compensation vs. wages are also on our minds
Long-term bond yields are rising amid positive economic data and rising inflation.
Both the U.S. state of Illinois and the nation of Brazil suffer from fiscal deficits that have been years in the making. How can these trends be reversed, and will the upcoming elections for each government contribute to a solution?
Until this year, the global economy had been characterized by three years of strong, synchronized growth with subdued inflation—the “not too hot, not too cold” characteristics of a “Goldilocks” economy. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by high commodity prices and tight labor markets.
This week, we look back at EU's recovery from the global financial crisis and the new normal of the US housing market. They have both recovered, but are we on the right path?
This week, the team looks at what’s ahead for the Fed
Reflecting on ten years since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy: Households have reduced their borrowing, but governments haven’t. Debates over the response to the financial crisis may never end. Non-bank lenders have thrived while managing their risks.
In the span of human history, retirement is a fairly new idea. Only a few generations ago, most of our ancestors could expect to work until the end of their lives. We are happy to report this is no longer the case. Improving longevity brings the opportunity for retirement, but also the responsibility for preparing. Unfortunately, many Americans have not handled this responsibility very well at all.
The Federal Reserve recently conducted its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Prominent on the agenda were discussions of inflation, or the lack thereof. Many central banks around the world have inflation targets, and have been frustrated by their inability to reach them.
