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Dan Fuss - The New Factor in the Bond Markets
by Robert Huebscher,
Dan Fuss' career in the bond market has spanned over 50 years. During that time, Fuss has spoken regularly at CFA luncheons. Last week in Boston, he began by warning that what he had to say would be markedly different from any of his previous talks.
Rhyming…but not Repeating.
Stocks have recovered their January losses and have continued to move higher. While economic growth remains solid and we remain secular bulls, investors should be prepared for increased volatility and the potential for a near-term correction. Also, European stocks may be due for at least a pause and we suggest looking to add exposure to emerging market positions if needed. Staying well diversified and keeping an eye on rebalancing is the recommended strategy.
China’s New Generation of Entrepreneurs II
by Beini Zhou of Matthews Asia,
China has long been perceived to be a breeding ground for business copycats, and has struggled with rampant intellectual piracy. Many businesses there have indeed been founded based on business models that originated in the U.S. or Europe. But what’s been overlooked in recent years is China’s rising “innovation machine.” More favorable government policies toward R&D have helped. This month, Asia Insight takes a look at developments in China’s grassroots-level entrepreneurship.
Investing in Volatility: Is Asian Volatility Poised to Rise?
by David Jubb of Invesco Blog,
Volatility is cheap these days. That may sound strange at first. But, the Invesco Multi Asset team views volatility as an investable asset type that can be included in our investment strategy. Why might this make sense? We believe volatility can provide additional diversification and return benefits when combined with our portfolio’s other asset exposures. For example, when volatility is low, markets may benefit. But when it rises, markets can come under pressure.
Family-Owned Businesses: One More Reason Not to Neglect Emerging Markets
by David Ruff of Forward Investing,
At the end of a year in which the U.S. handily led the world’s equity markets, many dividend investors find it hard to rouse any interest in emerging markets at all. “Why even bother?” seems to be the prevailing sentiment.
International Equity Commentary: January 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices were mostly unchanged during January as gains in both developed and emerging Asian markets were offset by weakness in Canada and select markets in Europe. Investors turned more cautious after the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank lowered their global growth forecasts for the current year, contrary to expectations.
Global Economic Overview: January 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
Concerns about the sharp fall in capital investments and earnings growth in select sectors resulting from lower oil prices continue to cloud the global economic outlook. While the decline in fuel prices is revitalizing consumer spending across all the major countries, the energy and mining sectors have already started curtailing their capital outlays.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economy Trends Update January 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
Japan, the biggest of the developed economies in the region, stands to benefit from cheaper oil as it should boost domestic demand and help some of the country’s key industries reduce costs. Still, the bigger advantage for the country seems to be the re-election of Prime Minister Abe, which has ensured continuity of the fiscal and monetary policies pursued by the government for the last two years.
The Question that Quadrupled Response Rates
by Dan Richards,
Last week, my article described how an advisor uses case studies on tax saving strategies to get in front of prospects. Today, I will discuss the tactic that quadrupled participation in a Red Cross blood drive, and how this technique could increase your success when talking to existing and prospective clients.
Search for Strength: EM Downturn Puts Focus on Fundamentals
- Corporate earnings deterioration and a decline in return on capital have held back emerging market performance.
- Reversing weak performance depends on a return to stronger corporate earnings.
- Downside risks could lead to disappointing earnings growth, but positive fundamentals are unfolding.
One Cheer for India: Hip, Hip but no Hooray?
by Sudarshan Murthy of Matthews Asia,
There has been a sense of optimism lately over India’s place in the world, and its markets demonstrated some enthusiasm over the seemingly good chemistry between U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But should investors beware of chasing price momentum?
Positive Economic Surprises in Europe, Negative in the U.S.
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The Citi Economic Surprise index is a quick way to get a high-level look at the condition of economic data around the world. Calculated as a diffusion index, values generally range between 100 and -100 for the overall index, which is currently right in the middle of that range.
The Power of Lower Oil Prices
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
The Ten Surprises of 2015 have two prevailing themes. The more dominant is that the decline in the price of oil is generally a positive for the world. It puts money in the pockets of consumers everywhere and it is likely to force Iran and Russia to be more conciliatory in geopolitical negotiations because both countries are suffering not only from the drop in the oil price, but also from the sanctions imposed on them. The second theme is that in spite of notable economic problems in Europe, China and Japan, the United States equity market will have another good year.
China’s Millennials: Have Money, Will Travel
by Sammy Suzuki of AllianceBernstein,
China’s millennials are better educated and more affluent than their elders. They also have a serious case of travel fever. Their favored destinations, and shopping habits abroad, could have far-reaching implications for a wide range of global companies.
Key Questions for China Investors in 2015
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
China raises many questions for investors. Last year, for example, GDP growth slowed to 7.4% from 7.7%, but China still accounted for almost one-third of global growth. Is this a healthy economy or an impending disaster? In the first of a three-part Sinology series, Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, addresses some key investor concerns.
A Greek Morality Tale
When the euro crisis began a half-decade ago, Keynesian economists predicted that the austerity imposed on Greece and the other crisis countries would fail. Now that it has, what is needed is not structural reform in Greece so much as a fundamental reform of the eurozone's design and policy frameworks.
Facing Reality by Questioning Some Common Beliefs
by Ron Surz,
I've decided to do something different in this quarterly commentary. I begin as usual with a review of first quarter market performance. Then I turn my attention to some commonly held beliefs that I regard as mistaken, as shown in the figure below.
Deflation: Consternation Not Elation
Deflation has been around ever since there was an excess supply of something or when demand had plummeted. The term “deflation” has now become mainstream in the general public’s lexicon, though the understanding of the declining economic growth that corresponds with it is often disregarded until it wreaks havoc on the consumer’s paycheck. When we see deflation permeating global economics, market movements and NFL games, the general public will become acutely aware of the other major impact from deflation, the increasing symbiotic nature of all the global economies.
Portfolio Strategies 2015: Investing in an Age of Divergence
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Everyone is worried about being blindsided by a significant downdraft in the markets when maybe we should be thinking about making sure we don’t miss a bull market somewhere. These and several dozen other topics were on the table when the Mauldin Economics writing team gathered here in Dallas for 3½ days of intensive talk, interviews, and planning. Today we’ll go over a few of the highlights of this last week, and I’ll share a few reasons to be optimistic about 2015.
Reforms in Asia Bring Big Potential for Small Companies
At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we believe Asia’s combination of rapid economic growth, generally strong national finances and economic fundamentals has created an attractive landscape for equity investors. Seismic changes have been taking place in Asia’s political arena over the past couple of years, including major elections, leadership transitions and even a military coup. These political shifts have economic reform implications as well.
Municipal Market Update: What's Ahead in 2015
Municipal bonds ended 2014 as one of the best-performing asset classes - buoyed by investors’ search for yield in a low interest-rate environment. For 2015, we are positioned cautiously for greater volatility in the fixed income markets. We currently prefer revenue-backed bonds over most general obligation (GO) debt, as these sectors typically benefit from dedicated revenue streams and do not have the pension challenges that many state and local governments face.
European Central Bank Embraces QE, For Better Or Worse
Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the much-anticipated launch of a sovereign bond buying program at the rate of ?60 billion ($70 billion) per month known as ?quantitative easing.? The amount of the monthly purchases was slightly higher than had been expected.
How Global Interest Rates Deceive Markets
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
When it comes to interpreting what current interest rates are telling us about the markets in various countries, I have to say that I do not think they mean what the market seems to think they mean. In fact, buried in that list of bond yields is ?false information? ? information so distorted and yet so readily misunderstood that it leads to wrong conclusions and decisions ? and to bad investments.
Is Your China Glass Half Empty or Half Full?
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
It's been well-noted that China's 2014 GDP growth was the slowest in 24 years. But following 7.7% growth for the prior two years, 7.4% doesn't feel like a huge slump. And because the base was so much bigger, the incremental increase in the size of China's economy last year was 100% bigger than the increase at a much faster growth rate a decade ago. What are other important perspectives on China these days? Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, explores in this issue of Sinology.
Connecting to China?s New Equity Plays
Despite a slow start following its launch in November, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect share trading scheme has significantly increased foreign access to China equities and created new investment opportunities. Two subsectors are particularly noteworthy for global investors.
U.S. Lodging: The Recovery Checks In for an Extended Stay
by Ray Huang, Amit Arora of PIMCO,
Relatively high occupancy levels should drive room rate growth in the hotel sector over the next several years, despite some supply entering the market. We see opportunities in certain segments, such as premium hotels and C-corporations, due to high barriers to entry and pricing power.
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter: Year End 2014
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), looks back at the performance of gold over 2014, noting that: "in dollar terms gold declined 1.7 percent, but?it posted solid gains against all other currencies," and that "the dollar?s strength relative to other currencies has camouflaged the strength of gold."
What We Are Hearing From Asia-Pacific Investors: Five Themes for 2015
by Eric Mogelof of PIMCO,
Amid lower forward-looking returns, investors are focusing on multi-asset solutions, enhanced beta, income and alternatives in Asia-Pacific. PIMCO is prepared to address these themes, drawing upon our time-tested investment process that combines high-level macroeconomic views with thorough on-the-ground research.
European Head Fake?
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
The much anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting this week may include a quantitative easing (QE) program announcement. Although we would view a potentially bold QE program from the ECB as an incremental positive, the ongoing growth and deflation challenges in Europe leave us still with a strong preference for the U.S.
Navigating the Oil Slick
by Team of Calamos Investments,
GDP growth for 2015 is likely to be 2.0%-2.5% globally and 2.5%-3.0% in the U.S. Oil prices may fall further but are likely to stabilize over the next several months. The ECB is likely to ramp up QE in the first quarter. These next months are likely to be volatile, but equities have more room to run. Low corporate borrowing costs and high dividend yields should encourage continued M&A and buyback activity, providing support to equity valuations. With the U.S. in the middle innings of the recovery, the case for secular and cyclical growth companies remains strong.
A Year-End Letter to Clients: How the World's Wealthiest Families Invest
by Dan Richards,
Here are the components of the year-end letter for 2014: An overview of 2014 performance; Some context on market valuations and how wealthy families are investing today; and brief thoughts for the period ahead.
QE and the ECB: "Authorize" is a Slippery Word
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
The ECB will authorize a large QE program this week, but my impression is that the details will leave the ECB itself responsible for executing only a fraction of the announced program, with the remaining majority of the program (perhaps 60-75%) being nothing more than the option for each national central bank to purchase its own country?s government bonds, at its own discretion, and its own risk. Moreover, that option is likely to be limited to something on the order of 25% of the outstanding government debt of each respective country.
Occupy Wall Street in Qing Dynasty, China
by Gerald Hwang of Matthews Asia,
What if a banker's family could be taken as slaves to repay losses arising from the banker's malfeasance? This may seem extreme now but it was part of a system that existed 200 years ago in a China's desolate Shanxi region near Mongolia. This week, Gerald Hwang, CFA, writes about this surprising birthplace for a banking system that served elite citizens and the treasury of the Qing dynasty.
Palladium Was the Winner in 2014
Palladium, 2014?s top commodity, performed relatively according to script. For the year it was up 11.35 percent, compared to its 10-year annualized returns of 14 percent. Much like nickel, palladium was spurred by extenuating circumstances. Between January and June, a labor strike in South Africa, the world?s second-largest producer of the metal following Russia, halted production, which depleted reserves and sent palladium to a three-year high of $850 an ounce.
The Swiss National Bank?s Unpleasant Experience of Sleeping Next to an Elephant
On 15 January 2015, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly exited its minimum exchange rate regime, which it had adopted back in September 2011 when it was fighting sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc in the midst of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Market Outlook 2015: Double Digit Gain...Thank You, May I Have Another?
The U.S. stock market finds itself in rare territory as we enter 2015. For only the sixth time in the past 150 years, the U.S. stock market has registered a double-digit gain for three consecutive calendar years from 2012 to 2014. We will try to answer the question: ?Can the U.S. stock market post a fourth year of double-digit gains??
Shades of APEC Blue
by Raymond Deng of Matthews Asia,
During last year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Beijing revealed stunning blue skies to replace its normally smog-choked atmosphere?a result of intentional government closings of factories and roads. Producing "APEC blue" as it came to be called was a complicated and expensive task. Asia Weekly explores such initiatives in China.
2015 Investment Outlook: Emerging Markets Still Global Growth Drivers
We at Templeton Emerging Markets Group believe high economic growth rates will remain a key attraction of many emerging markets in 2015. Even with major economies like Brazil and Russia slowing down, overall economic growth in emerging markets during 2015 is expected to be comfortably in excess of developed markets, with China and India likely to drive the Asian region to particularly strong growth.
Health Care Stocks Pick Up in 2015 Where They Left Off in 2014
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Across two of the three regions in the MSCI World Index, the health care sector has been the best performer over the last year. In North America, measured in USD, health care stocks are up 29.13% over the last year, while they were up 5.96% in Europe and 2.53% in Asia/Pacific.
Evaluating the Arguments for the Dollar's Demise
by Seaborn Hall,
From the great financial crisis and the massive escalation of sovereign debt and QE to the threat of currency wars to cries from pundits to exit the dollar and buy gold, it requires a discerning advisor to sift through the din and decide whether the dollar's reserve status is slipping. Could the dollar look strong and still be in danger? Several recent books, and papers from the BIS, IMF and Fed delineate the noise from the reality.
Results 3,351–3,400
of 4,282 found.
