Rising rates are typically good for stocks, especially when they’re rising because of a strengthening economy. That should mean better days ahead for many post crisis laggards. But a lot will depend on how inflation behaves.
Equity investors are increasingly thinking about how their decisions affect society. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a good road map for identifying investments that can make an impact—and generate profits as well.
You knew the protectionist measures would come. You just didn’t know how soon they would be implemented and how disruptive they could be. A border trade war with Mexico could mean some very expensive items in the produce aisles offset by a glut of beef, pigs and cheese in the U.S.
Follow my tips for a clear, concise and newsworthy press release.
One of the charts I like to keep an eye on looks at inflation and its impact on stock prices. In rising inflationary periods, stocks tend to struggle. When inflation is falling, stocks tend to perform well.
This week’s letter is going to be an examination of academic economics today and why it fails to explain reality, and I’ll point readers in a direction that can offer a more fruitful explanation of how the economy really works. I readily accept that I will be drummed out of most economists’ Lamb’s Book of Life for espousing too many heresies of the first order. I should hasten to say that much economic research is quite useful and does help to explain how the world works. It is just certain specific branches of economics that have been problematic, but these are the branches that have most influenced government and Federal Reserve policy.
The world is changing for investors but we believe it's largely in a positive way, although there will be bumps along the way. The recent sideways equity movement was a healthy consolidation of the post-election gains, and we suggest investors add to U.S. equity positions as needed at the expense of some developed market international exposure. Inflation is ticking higher, and the Fed is becoming more hawkish, but the conditions supporting those moves are also positive supports for stock.
President Donald Trump’s promise to put America first might actually help make Europe great again.
This month marks my 30-year anniversary with Templeton Emerging Markets Group! The opportunity to open up new emerging markets, learn about new industries, meet wonderful people around the world and most of all be part of the Templeton emerging-markets family has been a real blessing.
Commodity investors have had to endure a dry spell for a while now, but those days are starting to look as if they might be behind us. We see encouraging signs that a bottom has been reached and a new commodities super-cycle has begun...
Crowd sizes, Alternative Facts, The Bee Movie, Madonna, Tax Returns, Twitter, Facebook, 24-hour news channels and Saturday Night Live. If you enjoy political entertainment, then now is your time.
If you are like many busy working people with many responsibilities and stresses, you probably have little time to think about retirement. But as the wise Ben Franklin once said, “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.”
Greetings this New Year from our new office facilities in Westborough, MA. We hope you will find time to stop in if you are in the area!
Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. President Trump steps to center stage. Bring us jobs, bring us tax reform and bring us a grand fiscal infrastructure spend. That would be positive.
We have a normal calendar for economic data. There will be important news will come from corporate earnings reports. Since this earnings season is part of an inflection point – the end of the earnings recession– it is special.
Global equities are nearly 25% higher than in February 2016. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash. That's no longer the case. Optimism towards the economy has surged to a 2-year high.
While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.
Time for the new White House and Congress to put pen to paper. While the equity markets have sustained their high levels, intra-day volatility in currencies, bonds and equities have surged as those markets attempt to react to every rumor and tweet out of Washington and Trump Tower.
Who can forget the harrowing start to the year that saw markets plunge 13% in the first 20 days of January? China debt fears, global deflation, secular stagnation worries, the Brexit and the United States election surprises were the dominant headlines of 2016.
I hate making predictions. I got the tech wreak and sub-prime right, but was far too early on those predictions.
Since investors are mostly individuals that have a “day job,” the majority of their “research” comes from a daily dose of media headlines. Therefore, since the media tends to “focus” their attention on “market moving headlines,” either bullish or bearish, investors tend to “react” accordingly.
I gave you my own thoughts last week (see “Skeptically Optimistic”). Today we’ll review several other forecasts from people who deserve your attention. Of necessity, I must leave out some good ones, but I think the ones I cover will give you plenty of useful information.
U.S. stocks have been consolidating gains seen in the aftermath of the November presidential election, a healthy process following such strong gains. Further appreciation should be supported by improving U.S. and global economic and earnings growth. Disappointments are likely on the U.S. policy front but we would view those as buying opportunities for now.
Look at what President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to lower taxes and slash regulations is doing to business optimism here in the U.S. Last month, the Index of Small Business Optimism soared a phenomenal 7.4 points to 105.8, its highest reading since 2004. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which conducts the survey, reported that attitudes toward capital spending and job creation in particular surprised to the upside. Research firm Evercore ISI called it a “blowout report,” and I have to agree.
“We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.” - Abraham Lincoln, 1809-1865 16th President of the United States
Understanding the political success of US President-elect Donald Trump is not easy, and there have been many glib comparisons with earlier populist US politicians, from Huey Long to George Wallace. But the most revealing comparison may be with an historical figure from another country: the British nativist firebrand Enoch Powell.
I believe this rally was the result of animal spirits based on the notion that Trump’s pro-growth policies will support the economy. At the same time, many investors assume that growth in the economy will lead to upticks in inflation and interest rates, which—along with lighter regulations—are perceived as positive for business.
When many people hear the word “convertible,” carefree driving, sunny roads and wind-blown hair probably come to mind. Franklin Equity Group Portfolio Manager Alan Muschott thinks of convertibles as something entirely different.
It was a big first week of 2017 for the weather and for the U.S. markets. As temps dropped and snow hit nearly every state in the union, stocks only wanted to move into the clouds. The numbers showed that it was a different type of week with growth, biotech and FANG stocks leading the week one charge.
I traveled once to Africa, as you might have guessed by now, and it's been a part of me ever since. Being perhaps the cradle of civilization, if not life itself, Africa casts an eerie glow over the entire history and, indeed, meaning of existence.
Franklin Equity Group's Coleen Barbeau explains why last year’s election-driven volatility will likely continue—and may be more significant—in 2017.
I find it curious that many in the financial media continue to have a bias against gold, even though it generated better returns in 2016 than 10-year Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, which performed half as well. And when it was up as much as 28 percent in the summer, they still didn’t have anything positive to say, arguing it had gone up too much.
Factors ranging from China’s evolving economy to the rise of nationalism combined to make 2016 a year that will not be quickly forgotten.
For fans of surprise endings, especially in political contests, 2016 was a banner year. Unexpected election outcomes swung global equity markets both up and down and continue to influence the outlook for many sectors and companies.
This week, someone asked me about the excess reserves held by the banking system and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do about it. As it turned out, what he really wanted to know was whether inflation is likely to take off and which signals might alert us if the economy and markets are about to roll over.
2017 begins with plenty of economic data crammed into a short week. While most expected at least a touch of Dow 20K last week, it did not happen. The conversation quickly shifted to why the rally stalled out. In the coming week, the punditry will be asking: Should we expect a weak start to 2017?
Why do so many pundits and politicians, including the future director of the Office of Management and Budget, beat the debt drum so loudly and so often? It’s one of the most effective, and most abused, wedge issues in American politics.
Instead of trying to answer questions about the future, I’ll try to list those we should be asking as 2017 opens. These are the things that I sit and meditate about when I consider the future of economics, markets, and investing. Today’s economy is something like an old-fashioned Swiss watch. It’s a thing of beauty when all those delicate little gears mesh just right. If you ever take the time to actually study the inner workings of the marvelous manifestations of human ingenuity that keep us all alive, it is difficult not to come away awestruck by the ability of the human mind to craft such complexity. But if any of the gears get just a little out of whack, the entire contraption can grind to a halt.
In more ways than one, 2016 was a roller coaster year. One need only look at gold’s performance to confirm this.
As we head into the New Year, I want to share with you the six most popular Frank Talk posts of 2016. Before I do that, however, I think it’s important to note one recurring theme I write about that continues to help our investment team and shareholders better understand the movement in commodities and energy: the purchasing managers’ index (PMI).
The optimism that has followed the election of Donald Trump has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the threshold of 20,000, a level that will be both a nominal record and a symbolic milestone.
An investment landscape of increasingly binary outcomes requires fundamentally different involvement by investors. Importantly, those taking their cues primarily from the US economy are likely to be woefully unprepared.
The top five most read Russell Investments blog posts of 2016 cover a multi-asset approach to investing strategy during volatile times, understanding the potential impact of political events on markets and preparing for the DOL rule.
What’s ahead for emerging markets in 2017? Stephen Dover, managing director and CIO of Templeton Emerging Markets Group and Franklin Local Asset Management, and Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, present their emerging-market equity outlook.
It was announced on December 15, 2016 that the current Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), Thomas Wheeler, would be stepping down as of January 20, 2017. He has been the lead arbitrator and backer of a concept called “Net Neutrality.”
I’ve fielded a large number of investor questions recently around tax cuts and earnings. The idea is that tax cuts, for both corporations and individuals, will significantly improve corporate earnings and thus propel the market higher.
In the fight for American jobs, we could be “risking” a trade war with China right on our southern doorstep. Though the stakes might not be as high as total global domination, they come pretty close. With rates moving up and the world resetting to less quantitative easing, inflation might accelerate. To avoid a global recession, Trump will need to make streamlining regulations a top priority.
We assess three global economic scenarios for 2017.
“If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” – Walter Bahr