While inflation fears remain high, it is likely that we are past peak inflation and the largest interest rate increases are behind us.
We believe that the Fed is going to increase the federal funds rate by 75 bps.
Born in the 1980s, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are growing up. A surge in SPAC activity that started in 2019 only grew in 2020, bolstered by the market volatility brought on by the pandemic – but also by an influx of more serious investors in a previously niche space. By the end of 2021, SPACs had raised $160 billion on U.S. exchanges – a new record that nearly doubled the level of the previous year.
Rough water is ahead, but equity markets may sail higher over the next 12 months...
Where can investors turn when the markets are a riddle? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam seeks advice from antiquity.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
As market volatility rages, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam believes the Fed will likely engineer a soft landing and avoid a severe recession.
The equity market was on cruise control, but now headline congestion has the S&P 500 down more than 17% year-to-date—its worst start to a year in at least 25 years.
The nature of the economy is that there are always causes for concern in strong markets, just as there are reasons for optimism in weaker ones.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
With all eyes on earnings, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam stresses the importance of strong underlying fundamentals.
Underlying oil market fundamentals – good ol’ supply and demand – are as bullish as they have been over the past decade, says Pavel Molchanov, Managing Director and Energy Analyst for Raymond James Equity Research.
With the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks going down the path of increasing policy rates, it seemed a good time to look at market impacts over the last 40 years or so.
The March Employment Report was strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 431,000 – less than expected but with upward revisions to January and February (a 562,000 monthly average in 1Q22).
Volatility is likely to persist but the U.S. economy has room to grow.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
Shoots of green are showing up in the markets amid the gloom of geopolitical strife and monetary policy tightening.
In his monetary policy testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Pro Tempore Powell solidified market expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise short-term interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 (and not by 50).
While the Russia/Ukraine conflict is troubling, investors need not overreact.
Punxsutawney Phil—the most famous groundhog—saw his shadow!
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
The opening ceremony for the Winter Olympics is just four weeks away, but the athletes have spent years training to ultimately experience either the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
“Investors should be prepared for the ground to shift repeatedly in 2022,” says Raymond James Chief Economist Dr. Scott Brown.
What can investors expect this year? Above-trend economic growth, at least two interest rate hikes and continued earnings strength among technology stocks, says Raymond James CIO Larry Adam.
The year ended on a high note for the Dow and S&P 500 despite economic challenges posed by the coronavirus and extreme weather events.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee accelerated the reduction (“tapering”) of its monthly asset purchases (now expected to end in March rather than June). The policy statement indicated that “job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.”
As the end of 2021 draws near, investors are pleased with the impressive performance posted by most asset classes, but we are still awaiting the transition to the endemic state of the virus.
In his congressional testimony of November 30, Fed Chair Powell seemed to shift from cautious to hawkish. However, the evolution of the inflationary outlook had been underway for a while. The spike in inflation in the spring was narrow, the gain concentrated in a few categories.
Have the tables turned? The S&P 500 is just shy of its level prior to the World Health Organization declaring Omicron a “variant of concern.
What’s on the market’s wish list for 2022? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam provides a festive perspective.
The November Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose less than anticipated, but the unemployment rate fell sharply. The shortfall in payrolls (relative to expectations) likely reflects the usual noise in the monthly data, it might reflect difficulties in hiring, but it certainly doesn’t reflect weak labor demand.
Though the equity markets likely will experience some volatility, the outlook for economic growth remains positive: above-average growth should lead to above-average earnings growth for companies in 2022.
You can learn a lot by talking to people. The economy is “strong,” but also “terrible.” Higher inflation is “transitory,” but also “likely to persist.” Fed policy is “behind the curve,” but also “appropriately positioned.” In truth, the outlook for growth, inflation, and monetary policy is evolving.
Thanksgiving is the time to reflect on all we are grateful for, and given the strides the economy and markets have made over the last year, we have a cornucopia of blessings to count! Between the economic expansion and the S&P 500 up 27% year-to-date, there is quite a long list.
October inflation figures were higher than expected. More troublesome, the range of items with higher inflation, relatively narrow in the spring, appears to be widening. Inflation expectations for the next five years have risen. Higher inflation is dampening consumer sentiment.
Inflation figures surprised to the upside. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in October (+6.2% year over year), up 0.6% (+4.6% year over year) excluding food and energy. Gasoline rose 6.1% (+49.6% year over year). Used vehicle prices rose 2.5% (+26.4% year over year).
Its National Young Readers Week! Whether your favorite childhood author was C.S. Lewis or Judy Blume, you likely remember the joy of reading your favorite book and turning through the pages of witty rhymes and colorful illustrations. I know for me, the times spent reading with my three daughters will always be some of my fondest memories.
