In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses the funds’ long-term outcomes relative to peers, views on emerging market currencies and recent research centered on momentum.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
We look at ways to de-risk, diversify and differentiate ahead of a turn in the economic cycle.
U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation lagged expectations in August, breaking from the recent trend of generally upward surprises from various wage and price reports.
The UN Sustainable Development Goals provide the investment community, including bond issuers, with a framework for tackling long-term global challenges.
Risk is rising late in the cycle. How should investors respond?
One truism spanning the last three decades has been that emerging markets are a leveraged play on global growth – often outperforming when developed markets (DM) are growing but susceptible to sharp downturns when DM conditions are less favorable.
Art may now be making a comeback in monetary policy, and partly at the expense of science.
Women are transforming the global economy. The financial services industry must evolve both to better serve women investors, and to assess the impact that women’s decisions have on markets worldwide – now and in the decades to come.
It won’t be easy and key risks remain, but we believe the players and strategies are now in place to transition markets beyond Libor.
The U.S. central bank is damned either way as it faces a choice on a September rate rise.
We expect an acceleration of strategic investments into onshore China bonds as these securities join emerging market and global bond indexes.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized several important uncertainties about the structural aspects in the U.S. economy that greatly complicate the central bankers’ medium-term job of setting monetary policy.
In commodity investing, roll yield and carry are not the same thing.
Looking through your old compact disc collection can be nostalgic. The cover photo on your favorite CD or a few bars of a summer song can transport you back in time to what seems like a better, simpler place.
We believe the Income Fund has the tools to be resilient in the face of rising interest rates.
A fresh look at after-tax returns and valuations may cast REITs in a new light.
For microeconomic advances to unleash a productivity rebound economywide, the macroeconomics must cooperate.
The UN recently wrapped up its annual High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, which brings together the 193 Member States to explore how they plan to reach the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Munis may offer U.S. taxpayers key benefits as they contemplate the end of the economic expansion.
Japanese government bonds yield virtually zero. Yields on German bunds remain stuck below 50 basis points (bps). U.K. gilts yield only about 125 bps. Do non-U.S. bonds such as these hold any value to dollar-based investors?
U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in July, reinforcing our view that the Fed will continue its gradual pace of interest rate hikes, at least for now.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) indicators are integral to PIMCO’s sovereign credit assessments, which inform our investment decisions. But how exactly do we incorporate ESG considerations into our decisions?
Portfolio managers Dan Ivascyn and Alfred Murata discuss the impact of higher market volatility and how they are positioning the Income Strategy for change ahead.
In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning in emerging markets and why investors should care about the distinction between real and nominal returns.
Even before President Trump’s inauguration, we at PIMCO had identified trade policy as a potential spoiler to the otherwise pro-growth nature of the president’s economic agenda. And the unfolding of this “summer of discontent” has only affirmed our view heading into 2018 that trade policy remains one of the biggest policy risks for markets and the economy this year.
Amid overall caution on credit, we believe short-dated investment grade corporate bonds offer a compelling risk/reward profile today.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and released a statement on 1 August that made only minor changes to reflect the more upbeat U.S. economy since the Fed’s June meeting. Despite the lack of surprises, however, we don’t think investors should write off the meeting just yet: The more interesting aspect may well come later ‒ when the meeting minutes are revealed in a few weeks.
Ultimately, we think the sell-off will prove transient and that the relationship of real yields to gold observed over the past decade will prevail.
President Donald Trump has opened a new front in the cold currency war: He recently complained in an interview and on Twitter that the strong U.S. dollar puts the U.S. at a disadvantage and that China and the European Union have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower.
We see key factors beyond Brexit affecting the medium-term economic outlook for the U.K.
Master limited partnership (MLP) investors received some good news last week. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a final ruling that clarifies and softens a previous order issued in March, which would have disallowed a long-standing policy enabling MLPs to earn an income tax allowance in their pipeline rates.
Will they or won’t they? With the U.S. yield curve flattening to new cycle lows, whether or not the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned rate-hike path is a key question – and could soon become the key question – for financial markets.
Amid fears of escalating trade tensions, the yuan’s sharp depreciation against the dollar last month has spooked some investors who see similarities with China’s currency devaluation in 2015, an episode that prompted capital outflows and roiled markets worldwide.
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
Over the next few years, financial markets could be set for a series of “Rude Awakenings,” as we forecasted in our latest Secular Outlook. The global economy is transitioning out of a post-crisis period characterized by remarkable stability, and the changes ahead could be jarring for investors.
U.S. tariffs and trade tensions have dominated headlines over the past few months. With certain tariffs aimed squarely at China, Beijing quickly responded with tariffs of its own on U.S. goods in early July. What do the tariffs mean for investors in Chinese and other Asian technology and consumer credits?
In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning for a potential inflation shock and offers insight into its collaboration with PIMCO to bring forth innovative solutions for investors.
Investors may be concerned that Fed rate hikes may be bad for bondholders but it’s important to remember the fundamental benefits that bonds may bring to a portfolio no matter which way rates move – capital preservation and appreciation, income, and diversification.
We believe the bond market is uniquely suited to both benefit from and provide finance for ESG-related (environmental, social and governance) efforts.
The recent OPEC meetings and press conference have given oil investors greater clarity about the cartel’s intentions and reaction function: OPEC, along with Russia and other partners, agreed to boost aggregate output by 700,000–1 million barrels per day.
External pressures are mounting, but Canada’s biggest wake-up call may come from within.
With the economy in the later stages of its post-crisis recovery, we believe investors should be cautious and selective on corporate credit. Within the high yield sector, this caution may warrant a move up in quality toward the higher end of the spectrum: BB rated bonds.
Forecasting currency performance is like predicting the outcome of a horse race. Currencies move up the field and then fall back depending on their respective country conditions. And once in a great while, a very strong contender dominates the field – much like the winner of the Triple Crown.
How can investors navigate volatility arising from late-cycle fiscal stimulus?
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses the outlook for major economies and geopolitical developments.
The Federal Reserve’s decision today to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% was widely expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also signaled growing consensus that the robust pace of economic activity warrants two more rate hikes this year, for a total of four in 2018.
One of the potential rude awakenings that we advised investors to prepare for in our recent Secular Outlook is a surprising surge of productivity growth over the next several years.
