Now, as we turn the page to 2026, new challenges await: geopolitical tensions, lofty valuations, and an evolving macro backdrop. That’s why we’re excited to unveil our Ten Themes for 2026, inspired by Mission: Impossible, celebrating the 30th anniversary of its first movie this year.
Now that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed October and November nonfarm payroll numbers, do we know more about the US labor market than we knew before the release? Probably not.
Before we turn the page on 2025, let’s take a moment to reflect on the key trends that shaped the economy and financial markets this year. Despite heightened policy uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions, both proved remarkably resilient.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its final meeting of 2025, delivering – as expected – its third consecutive rate cut. Policymakers lowered the fed funds rate to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling continued support for the economy.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
With the Fed's final 2025 meeting approaching, markets anticipate a third rate cut amid labor weakness, though the FOMC remains publicly divided on balancing a cooling job market against sticky inflation.
Recessions are less common today than they were before the 1980s. Some argue that the reason is that we have become better at conducting fiscal and monetary policy to reduce the ebbs and flows of economic cycles.
A mid-month bout of volatility focused primarily on the AI tech giants gave way to a broader rally in November’s final days amidst renewed expectations the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the coming weeks.
Rob Tayloe discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Investors are needy. Insatiable, really. But it makes sense: If an investor buys a share of a company, they’re going to want some benefit from it.
Although the September employment report surprised to the upside, the overall stance of the US labor market remains weak, something that was underscored by the third consecutive increase in the rate of unemployment, from 4.1% in June to 4.4% in September.
With Thanksgiving around the corner, there’s so much to be thankful for in 2025, especially for investors. After a challenging start to the year, the economy and markets regained their footing quickly, with nearly all asset classes on track for solid gains heading into year-end. Looking ahead, there are reasons for optimism to continue into 2026 as well.
While headlines often speculate about an AI bubble, we believe the long-term outlook for technology remains strong. Periodic volatility is a normal part of any innovation cycle and unlikely to derail our constructive view on equities.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
We were in the camp that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should have reduced interest rates during the first half of the year, taking advantage of the underlying disinflationary path during that period.
It’s been one year since President Trump secured his second term, and we’re taking stock of how the economy and financial markets have performed during that time, highlighting both the wins and the challenges.
Although the stability of the consumer depends on its ability to generate labor income, i.e., wages and salaries, households’ financial conditions are very important in supporting the stability of consumption.
Together with the surge in investments brought about by the CHIPS and IRA acts, plus the recent surge in AI investment, US consumers continue to be the backbone of the US economy.
Even with the government shutdown casting a shadow over Washington D.C., equity markets have continued their upward march, fueled by a trifecta of positive surprises: cooler-than-expected inflation, another rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and easing trade tensions.
Markets were taken by surprise by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell’s strong suggestion that a rate cut in December is not a certainty, as they were sure they were going to get one at December’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
This convergence creates a thrilling, unpredictable day for sports enthusiasts packed with drama. Interestingly, the financial markets are gearing up for their own version of a 'Sports Equinox' week. Just as fans juggle overlapping games on October 27, investors will face a crowded calendar of potentially market-moving events that have our attention.
Every week, this platform is used to highlight current ideas, fixed-income concepts, economic occurrences, and/or clarify a strategic fixed-income feature. The cohesive topic threads are fixed-income issues relevant to current market conditions.
Last week’s scheduled release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was postponed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has disrupted the operations of key agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Tech and its derivatives have led returns thus far. After hefty multiple expansion, earnings will need to take the driver’s seat.
Despite inflation remaining a concern, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates in response to weakening jobs numbers. This allowed small-cap equity performance to lead a month that was generally positive across sectors, cap sizes and asset classes.
Last week, my colleague wrote about Anchoring Bias, a psychological phenomenon that attaches a particular price or specific yield level to a bond.
Consumption spending surprised to the upside once again in August, something we had already seen from last week’s release of retail and food services sales during the same month.
Goodbye summer, hello fall! As the sun sets on another season, we’re swapping beach days and backyard barbeques for crisp mornings, vibrant foliage, football weekends, and everything pumpkin spice.
The Fed operates under a dual mandate: to promote price stability and maximum employment. Lately, employment has taken center stage, prompting the Fed to resume its easing cycle with a 0.25% rate cut this week.
From the lack of conviction in the previous meetings to last week’s “risk management cut,” Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to walk a very fine line, hoping for the effects of tariffs to be transitory.
Labor concerns and persistent inflation have the Fed penciling in up to two additional cuts by the end of 2025.
Nick Goetze discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, we’ve taken a closer look at recent economic developments to better understand the landscape Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be navigating during the two-day meeting, which begins September 16.
A look inside why more Americans are turning to lifetime income.
The financial world is replete with terms and definitions, many of which overlap in concept or application. Perhaps I can simplify a familiar concept for most investors who strive to grow and preserve their wealth.
As summer fades and the first hints of fall appear, football fans have reason to celebrate – the new season officially kicked off last night. But while excitement builds on the field, the equity market may be losing steam.
Our biggest concern today is that if the labor market is as weak today as the numbers are showing, what will happen when all the federal government workers start dropping out of the employment numbers at the end of the fiscal year and during the next several quarters.
A market-wide boom of private equity investment is turning small, local residential service providers into big business. From the outside, it's been easy to miss.
Whether you’re building your portfolio, trying to diversify or considering new investments, understanding the difference between active and passive funds is extremely helpful. Both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can be either active or passive.
Earnings results surpassed expectations for the third consecutive quarter, which drove the market's strong August performance.
Each bank sets its own Beige Book reporting priorities, though prices, jobs and real estate are common themes. The Kansas City Fed, for example, covers nine topics, including community conditions, community and regional banking and agriculture.
