Trade, geopolitics, and emerging markets were top of mind at the recent annual meetings
For bond allocations, think twice before reflexively allocating to index ETFs.
Headline inflation resulting from a food price shock can never be ignored fully.
Germany’s economy is on the brink of recession. We expect a gradual recovery through the next year, but this is dependent on easing trade tensions.
The Fed has another lever to pull to ease monetary policy, one that could increase savings rates and create more disposable income.
Without pouring water on the “love fest,” we contend that the deal struck between China and the U.S. leaves much to be desired.
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses why its contrarian philosophy may add value over the long term and how the growing likelihood of a global economic slowdown is affecting positioning.
We believe the impeachment inquiry could have an adverse impact on the ongoing U.S.–China trade conflict, but there may be a silver lining for NAFTA 2.0.
In the past few weeks, U.S. equity momentum and value factors have had their sharpest moves in more than 15 years based on our calculations.
Businesses and investors are moving ahead with progressive actions despite policy vacuums.
Short-term bonds could rise in price and potentially maintain a high degree of liquidity in response to Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In a nutshell, we concluded that the global economy is about to enter a low-growth “window of weakness,” which we expect to persist going into 2020 with heightened uncertainty about whether it is a window to recovery or recession.
We believe a disciplined approach to bond investing is critical to achieving desired return and risk objectives. Model portfolios may help.
This year, in Paris, we were excited to participate as an industry expert and to engage with attendees on ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing in fixed income.
Weakness in the U.S. economy leaves it vulnerable to shocks. We think the Fed will respond with additional easing this year.
Markets can prove interesting when the price of liquidity abruptly increases and high yield is no longer the highest-yielding investment.
Attacks and outages could add to the longer-term geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
That fiscal policy is becoming the new monetary policy when it comes to fighting recession was a key conclusion of PIMCO’s Secular Forum, and this was the message ECB President Mario Draghi underlined through both actions and words.
Continued tight crude balances could be the bigger surprise to the market.
Equity-risk mitigation may be improved by combining positive expected return strategies that are negatively correlated with equities.
Two decades after inception, the eurozone countries’ arranged marriage-type of union looks shaky at best, and now it is even more challenged by ongoing, global disruptive forces.
Events of the last several weeks have not changed our long-term outlook, but we have become a bit more cautious in the short term.
While slower earnings growth is a broad headwind for both corporate debt and equities, it also tends to increase performance dispersion.
Read our key takeaways from our 2019 Asset Allocation Midyear Update, including how we are positioning multi-asset portfolios in light of our outlooks for the global economy and markets.
The institutional “golden fetters” of the interwar period have been replaced by fundamental “global fetters” that severely constrain monetary policy.
We see several areas of opportunity for muni investors in the second half of 2019.
The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.
We think the Federal Reserve will look past stronger-than-expected consumer price increases in June and July.
Come the fall, the ECB will likely deliver yet another easing package that could effectively deplete its monetary policy toolbox.
The last few days have highlighted the inherent fragility in markets – and the growth outlook globally.
It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative.
We think investors should take President Donald Trump at his word that he will move forward with the next round of tariffs on China come September.
We find the Fed’s statement clear, and we expect another rate cut as soon as September with possible additional cuts thereafter.
The market consequences of direct intervention by the U.S. could be substantial and thus bear consideration.
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates at its July meeting. But how much will it cut?
June inflation may have been boosted by the recent increase in import tariffs, while inflationary pressures from rising wages and tight labor markets remain notably subdued.
Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.
The tone of the FOMC statement and press conference was a notable shift from the May meeting, given uncertainty around the economic outlook.
Demand concerns, trade tensions, and strongly implied U.S. production are driving an oil sell-off, much like in fourth-quarter 2018, but the complicated backdrop may create investment opportunities.
We don’t expect a Fed rate cut in June, but if downside risks to the economy escalate, a 50 basis point cut in July is possible, in our view.
New U.S. tariffs on Mexico would add to the direct economic costs of the string of tariff hikes enacted during this administration.
With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.
A quiet and unsurprising FOMC statement belies the important policy discussions and decisions ongoing at the Fed.
We believe the spotlight on the burgeoning BBB credit market has diverted attention from the risks in the smaller single-A market.
Behavioral finance may help to overcome cognitive biases.
Even as the probability of a recession in the near-term remains low, we believe investors should look to sectors that are likely to be resilient in periods of higher volatility.