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The Yield Hunt
by Michael Lewitt,
The high-yield market is not in danger of imminent collapse as some have argued. As long as defaults remain relatively low, and interest rates remain invisible, investors will continue to chase yield. But a few things could cause a sharp sell-off in the near future.
October 2012: Equity Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
Equity and other "risk" assets rallied in the third quarter in anticipation of further monetary easing by central banks around the world. The prospect of increased liquidity from the central banks appears to have focused investor attention, at least temporarily, away from the generally softer economic data that continue to emerge from Europe and Asia.
PIMCO'S Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Structural Slowdown Shaping Near-Term Growth Dynamics
Rather than a hard landing for China, we foresee a structural downshift that could be called a "New Normal with Chinese characteristics." Australia has considerable scope for additional rate cuts and more expansionary fiscal policy to address regional weaknesses. The Japanese economy will be affected by weak economic growth in China, which will add more pressure for the Bank of Japan to respond.
Is China Becoming Less Competitive?
by Dara White of Columbia Management,
Concerns about the pace of economic growth in China and the imminent change in leadership have continued to escalate. At the beginning of the year, we highlighted the potential for the rate of economic growth to slow significantly. I recently visited Asia to get a clearer perspective on the situation in China specifically, and Asia generally.
Investing in a Resource-Constrained World
The potential consequences of stagnant oil production and climate change for society are written about frequently, but here is a simpler question that is important to our community: How are these and related facts likely to affect investment returns going forward? How can we even frame such questions usefully?
Surviving a Downturn
by Michael Han of Matthews Asia,
During my recent trip to Northeast Asia, many managers I met were concerned about the gloomy macroeconomic news still coming out of Europe and were curious to hear from me about the state of the U.S. economy. Given their concerns, companies were preparing for a worst-case scenario and continuing to leverage their competitive advantage as they have done during past downturns. Surprisingly, some companies I met with in more developed parts of Asia seemed to welcome this downturn.
The Siren Song of Growth: Why Investors Willfully Set Sail for the Rocks
by Matt Malgari of Knight Capital Group,
Gaining an informational edge through more efficient and effective tools of fundamental company financial analysis and relative valuation is still a crucial goal for active equity managers. This should be even truer in a lower return world, particularly when investment returns may be under transition, driven in part by difficulties in maintaining long-term growth opportunities of a given company's own capital investments.
Policymakers Report Card on Competitiveness
The U.S. dropped to No. 7 on the World Economic Forums newly released 2012 Global Competitiveness Index report. Switzerland retained its top position as the most competitive nation, followed by Singapore, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany. Asian countries continue to be among the most competitiveand many are gaining strength. Among the top 20, five are from Asia.
While Everyone Worried About Europe
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
We all do it. We all refer to Asia as an export-driven economy. It's one of those seemingly useful bits of shorthand. Unfortunately, I believe it has come to do more harm than good. Along with "emerging economies," I would like to banish the phrase to the ranks of outlawed jargon.
Reconnaissance: Strategy Notes
The Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran is probably the most important conference hosted there since the 1979 revolution. Iran is doing its best to use the forum as an opportunity to assert its position in world affairs. In market activity, we think fundamentals in India call for less exuberance in gold than some would suggest. Our outlook for South Asia meanwhile recognizes valuation opportunities in the smaller markets of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Where Wealth Thrives and Innovates
A surprising wealth of information about the world's most prosperous people can be discovered in two new reports. The Chinese Millionaire Wealth Report 2012 found that there are now a million millionaires in China. On average, a Chinese millionaire is 39 years old, has an average of four luxury watches, vacations in France, and owns a business. KPMG;s The Wealth Report 2012 found that there are 18,000 centa-millionaires in Southeast Asia, China and Japan.
Reconnaissance: Strategy Notes
India's massive power failure was a gift to both investment bankers and asset managers. There will likely be a surge in infrastructure-related financing and investment activity directed at South Asia. We also look at sovereign wealth fund transparency; the UAE funds rank comparatively well. Our allocation guidelines for North Africa focus on Morocco, where we believe we will see sustained gains for both portfolio and direct investors once the European situation stabilizes.
Monthly Product Commentary: International Equity - July 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equities made modest gains during the month of July on repeated assurances from European policymakers that they will explore all possible steps to prevent a collapse of the monetary union and arrest further economic decline. Developed markets in Europe's Nordic region and the Asia Pacific, excluding Japan, as well as select emerging markets in Asia ended with healthy gains for the month.
Emerging Markets Equity Monthly Product Commentary: July 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equities made modest gains during the month of July, as global markets sustained the optimism from the last week of the previous month. Select markets in Asia, such as Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia, as well as Turkey and South Africa outperformed during the month. Repeated assurances by European policymakers over further policy action helped assuage market concerns about the region's fiscal crisis worsening, though economic data continues to be relatively weak.
Global Overview: July 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Global equity prices made modest gains in July, helped by strong gains in the developed markets in Europe's Nordic region as well as in the Asia Pacific, excluding Japan. Most major emerging markets in Asia also saw price gains during the month, while Spain, Italy, and select other markets in Europe lost further ground. U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter declined below the previous quarter's pace, but was marginally ahead of expectations.
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession
Every day it seems the media are filled with forecasts of dyer economic times ahead based on troubles in Europe, Asia, and the Fiscal Cliff. The list goes on. Indeed the latest unemployment and GDP numbers, reflect a declining growth rate that is on the verge of going negative. Consequently, a number of commentators have used a projection of these trends to forecast an imminent recession. This is typical of crowd behavior, which has a strong tendency to extrapolate the recent past.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review 2nd Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging Asia, which posted strong results during the first quarter of 2012 on optimism that Europe's sovereign debt problems would be solved quickly, returned to struggling ways during the second quarter of 2012 as prospects for Europe continued to wobble throughout the period. The uncertainty about Greece's fate in the European Union and the destiny of the single market itself kept industrial firms in Europe guessing for the most part of the second quarter.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economic Review 2nd Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies experienced significant headwinds during the second quarter of 2012. While optimism about business conditions in the Euro-zone helped sustain export growth during the first quarter of 2012, significant challenges from the Euro-zone hampered both investor and consumer sentiment in most developed Asian economies during the second quarter.
Breaking Bad
by Michael Lewitt,
With our largest business and government institutions committing every conceivable act of legal or moral anomie, we have every right to ask who is going to protect the rest of us from those who have been entrusted with so much power and influence. The institutions that were supposed to be the lifeblood of our economy are the same institutions that inflicted the greatest harm on society. When the family has to be protected from the man who is supposed to protect the family, the family is in serious trouble.
Moving to Indonesia
by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia,
I just returned from a two-week trip to Asia, meeting with companies in Japan, Indonesia and Singapore. One notable change I observed in Tokyo - and confirmed in Jakarta - was the emergence of Indonesia as an investment destination for Japanese companies. All of the auto-related companies I met with in Japan were either building or had plans to build new capacity in Indonesia.
The Ascent of South Korea
by Michael Oh of Matthews Asia,
One country in Asia that seems to attract less attention than it might deserve, considering its modern-day achievements, is South Korea. While index provider MSCI this year (once again) left South Korea classified as an emerging market, both FTSE and Standard & Poors have placed Korea in the developed market camp for several years now.
One Way Pockets
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
This morning I awoke to headlines "Asia Signals Drop In Global Demand," "Euro Zone Fragmenting Faster Than EU Can Act," "European Worries Send Shares Lower," and "Investors Brace For Shaky Earnings Season." Such musings have the S&P 500 futures off about six points. Somewhat offsetting these negative quips are these headlines, "Fed Officials Favor QE3" and "Obama To Seek One-year Extension For Some Of Bush Tax Cuts;" but alas, this morning the negatives are outweighing the positives.
Looking for Bubbles
This month's Absolute Return Letter picks up on the question we left hanging in the air back in May - is Asia a potential re-run of Europe? Although policy rates appear to be dangerously low, and thus encouraging further borrowing, Asia has come a long way since 1997 and there is no immediate risk of a financial meltdown. Australian property prices and commodity prices - in particular crude oil prices - are more likely 'credit event' candidates in our opinion.
Jeremy Grantham: US Stocks are Expensive and Bonds are Disgusting
by Robert Huebscher,
Jeremy Grantham, who has consistently identified overpricing in the US equity markets - he flagged both the Dot Com bubble and the irrational pricing that preceded the financial crisis, for instance - said last week that US stocks are 'a little expensive' and bonds are 'disgusting.' But his sternest warning to investors concerned the longer-term threat posed by global resource constraints.
Asia's Role in Global Economic and Portfolio Rebalancing
We expect that the reallocation of global investor portfolios toward more balanced allocations to emerging market bonds the Great Migration to support Asia in the coming years. To pivot to a growth model that emphasizes domestic demand, China must alter government policy on taxes, profits of state-owned enterprises as well as make other structural changes. Japans growth will continue to be challenged by secular dynamics, and by the countrys inability to respond to them.
Is Global Financial Reform Possible?
by Paul Volcker of Project Syndicate,
Nowadays there is ample evidence that financial systems, whether in Asia in the 1990s or a decade later in the United States and Europe, are vulnerable to breakdowns. The cost in interrupted growth and unemployment has been intolerably large. But, in the absence of international consensus on some key points, reform will be greatly weakened, if not aborted.
Asia Exposed
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
For the second time in less than four years, Asia is being hit with a major external demand shock. This time it is from Europe, with financial and trade linkages leaving Asia highly vulnerable to a raging sovereign-debt crisis that threatens to turn a mild recession into something far worse. There are no oases of prosperity in a crisis-prone globalized world. That is equally true for Asia, the worlds fastest-growing region.
Postcard from Southeast Asia
by Lydia So of Matthews Asia,
A recent research trip I took to Thailand and Indonesia was a welcome break from watching gloomy macroeconomic data flash across my office computer terminals. Being on the ground, and literally on the streets, in Bangkok, Jakarta and several smaller Indonesian towns offered a reality check on the economic potential of Southeast Asian countries. This is not to say that these countries dont face challenges at their respective stages of economic developments. But speaking face to face with management teams offered me a fuller perspective.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Stocks have endured a rough couple of weeks as it has finally become obvious to everyone that the socalled recovery in the US has been a mirage while the difficulties in Europe have never been addressed. The latter problem is due to the flawed structure of the European Monetary Union, while our problem has to do with an incorrect mixture of policy choices from Washington and in many of our larger states such as California and Illinois. Last week saw a decline of 1.7% for the Dow Jones and .76% for the NASDAQ Composite. These declines were very modest compared to the carnage in Europe and Asia.
International Equity: Monthly Product Commentary April 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices remained subdued during the month of April as concerns over the European fiscal crisis continued to cloud market sentiment. Accordingly, price declines were the greatest in Europe while select markets in Asia and Latin America outperformed. As expected, the economies of both the U.K. and Spain contracted during the first quarter, and underscored the mild recession the region is facing at the moment. Bond yields of some of the troubled countries such as Spain and Italy have increased in recent weeks, and investor response to new bond issues remains lukewarm.
Eurozone Election Hangover
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
The euro is recovering after a dire Monday morning; keep in mind, though, that much of Asia had a holiday and missed digesting the disappointing U.S. unemployment report; liquidity is low, as London is closed for a holiday. Medium term, however, our bigger concern is that big money, such as the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, is taking a step back from the Eurozone. As such, the odds of more liquidity provisions from the ECB have increased. We believe the euro will underperform other European currencies; note, though, that the world, including the U.S., will remain awash in money.
A New Economic Era: The Usual Rules No Longer Apply
Against this backdrop of economic woes in the U.S. and Europe, business activity in Asia and Latin America is on the rise. The developing economies and emerging markets are where we see the better metrics, not in the US, Europe or Japan. One needs to look at the BRIC countries connection to commodities growth, and understand how they are getting on top of inflation. We believe China will lead the emerging markets in 2012. They will lean towards easing so their consumers will not be hurt by the less than healthy European export business as well as the weaknesses in the exports to the U.S.
All in the Family
by Tarik Jaleel of Matthews Asia,
A recent study revealed that family-run businesses are at the heart of Asia, representing half of all listed companies with a market capitalization equal to one-third of Asia's GDP. Naturally, these businesses are a critical source of private wealth creation for the region. In researching Asia's small companies, we note that the role of ownership is important, especially when owners have significant financial interests in a firm, allowing them to take a long-term perspective in running their businesses.
Shareholder Letter and Commentaries
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
How the markets behave in the near future, including the size and duration of any pullback, is unknowable. However, we remain confident in the long-term growth and prosperity of Asia. Therefore, our approach, in the midst of what are admittedly absorbing macro discussions, has been to focus on finding good businesses, rather than try to speculate on events. As much as we all like to discuss the big issues of the day, the real excitement and challenge comes in discovering businesses whose future prospects are underappreciated by the average view of the investment community.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review 1st Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging Asia Pacific economies, which reported dismal economic numbers during the fourth quarter of 2011, recovered some lost ground during the first quarter of 2012. Export-led growth in many Asian countries, which had come under pressure during the last months of 2011, witnessed slight improvements in 2012 thanks to receding fears about a sovereign debt crisis in the EU and a stronger-than-expected recovery in the U.S. China, the regions largest economy, however, signaled that it will accept a slightly lower growth rate of around 7.5 percent over the coming years.
Americas: Economic Review First Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Optimism over economic prospects increased across the Americas regions during the first quarter of the year, as economic data showed sustained improvement and global risks eased somewhat. Despite costlier fuel, consumer spending climbed in most countries across the region, especially in the U.S. The European fiscal crisis now appears less worrisome when compared to last year, while the slowdown in Asia has turned out to be milder than expected earlier. Commodity prices have recovered after the correction during the second half of last year, on an improved outlook in global demand.
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Committee on PIMCOs Cyclical Outlook
We do not expect to see aggressively expansionary policy to combat the incremental economic slowdown in China. We believe that most countries in emerging Asia will continue to put their currency appreciation on hold, as inflation is expected to remain subdued over the cyclical horizon.
We are concerned about the sustainability of Japans economic growth beyond 2012, as the governments reconstruction spending will fade in 2013. Relatively speaking, Australia is indeed a beneficiary of higher commodity prices as a result of the strong demand for coal, iron ore and liquid natural gas.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economic Review 1st Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies showed more promise in the first three months of 2012 compared to the gloomy scenario witnessed during the last quarter of 2011. A marked upturn in the U.S. economy along with receding fears about the debt crisis in Europe gave a fillip to export-based economies in Asia such as Japan and Singapore. Whats more, inflation in most of the developed Asia Pacific economies became less of a concern during the first two months of 2012, with Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand all reporting subdued inflation.
HBS Research: The Role of Business in Society
by Michael Edesess,
Many people believe that society needs to change for market capitalism to be sustainable - and it turns out a surprising number of business leaders are among them. That's the finding of a recent series of forums, organized by three Harvard Business School professors. Based on these discussions, the HBS professors advance a bold proposal - that business itself - not government, or even public-spirited nonprofits - should lead the charge to make the necessary changes to our capitalist system.
The World's a Little Richer
The World Bank released an update to its consumption poverty estimates in developing countries, and for the first time ever, the organization found progress in all the regions they track. In terms of the number and percentage of people living on $1.25 a day at 2005 prices in 130 developing countries, the world is a little richer. The area seeing dramatic progress was East Asia, reports the World Bank. Back in the 1980s, this region had the worlds highest incidence of poverty. Nearly 80 percent of people lived on less than $1.25 each day; In 2008, the number dropped to 14 percent.
Singapore Gateway to Southeast Asia
Viewing the region from the now 20-year old seat of our Singapore office, what we see in Southeast Asia is a generally favorable combination of rising per-capita incomes and a relatively young population, a recipe with the potential to fuel the appetite for a wide variety of consumer goods. The challenges Southeast Asian markets face must not be easily dismissed, but overall I am optimistic about the regions long-term growth potential.
Eye on Myanmar
by Xin Jiang of Matthews Asia,
Since the U.S. declared that the Asia-Pacific region is America's new priority, its strategic moves in Southeast Asia have included the notable visit to Myanmar in December by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The visit was generally viewed as an endorsement of the reform processes that Myanmar has slowly begun to roll out over the past year or so. On my recent trip there, I was able to take a first-hand look at some of these developments.
International Real Estate Securities- Investment Review & Outlook - February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
International real estate securities added to their year-to-date gains in February, although the pace of the rally moderated. Most markets in Europe and Asia Pacific continued to benefit from the retreat of macro risk concerns. Europes difficult grapple with its fiscal crises has made for a negative macroeconomic backdrop, and we expect a moderate recession as a base-case scenario for the region. Given this environment, we seek to invest in companies that are best able to shield themselves from the most adverse effects of slowing economies and a general deleveraging.
Global Real Estate Securities Investment Review and Outlook February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Global real estate securities added to their year-to-date gains in February, although the pace of the rally moderated. Most markets in Europe and Asia Pacific continued to benefit from the retreat of macro risk concerns. U.S. REITs, which advanced in 2011 while other regions struggled, had a modest decline.
Results 4,151–4,200
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