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Past Is Prologue: New Secular Bull Or A Repeat Of The 70’s
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 10/31/16

Last Monday, I discussed why you should be worried about corrections due to the damage inflicted upon your investment capital and the time required to “get back to even.” I received several emails stating we are in a new “secular bull market” and “indexing” is now the best approach.

Yes, You Should Worry About Market Corrections
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 10/19/16

One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform over the long-term is primarily due to the extremely flawed advice promoted by Wall Street, because they have a product or service to sell you, and the media, because they don’t know better.

4-Tools Used To Win The “Beat The Estimate Game”
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 10/10/16

Over the weekend, I got a few tweets talking about some technical analysis currently being passed around the Internet suggesting the S&P 500 is about to make a significant move towards 2400.

Don’t Blame “Baby Boomers” For Not Retiring
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 10/4/16

In business, the 80/20 rule states that 80% of your business will come from 20% of your customers. In an economy where more than 2/3rds of the growth rate is driven by consumption, an even bigger imbalance of the “have” and “have not’s” presents a major headwind.

Business Insider Unwittingly Exposes BLS Employment Error
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 9/28/16
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to point to the monthly employment reports as proof of the ongoing economic recovery. Even the White House has jumped on the bandwagon...

Bob Farrell’s Illustrated 10-Investment Rules
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 9/19/16
Over the weekend, it was interesting to see the number of advisors/analysts quickly rushing to defend their “buy and hold” investing philosophies following the sharp decline on Friday.

The Fed Is Likely Trapped
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 9/13/16
The confusion at the Fed continues as Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams painted an upbeat picture of the U.S. economy in a speech on Tuesday. This, of course, comes despite recent disappointing data on both the employment and economic fronts.

Bulls, Bears & The Broken Clock Syndrome
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 8/29/16
“Bears are like broken clocks, they are only right twice a day.” This is a statement that is often thrown out during rising bull markets by the inherently optimistic crowd.

Liquidity Trapped! The Fed’s Policy Nightmare
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 8/23/16
Yesterday, we got the release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. Not surprisingly, we see a Fed just as confused as ever as to what monetary policy actions should be taken.

It’s Only Like This, Until It’s Like That
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 8/16/16
It is not surprising that after one of the longest cyclical bull markets in history that individuals are ebullient about the long-term prospects of investing.

5 Questions Market Bulls Must Answer
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 8/8/16
Lance Roberts questions the central points that support higher asset prices and the rise of a continued bull rally for the stock market.

The “New Housing Crisis” – Not Enough Rental Homes?
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 8/1/16
The has been a rash of articles as of late suggesting there is a “new housing crisis” afoot. The issue this time, as it is suggested, is there is a “shortage” of homes for all the people that are wanting to buy homes causing prices to skyrocket out of reach.

TFTB: Howard Marks & Investing Rules
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 7/25/16
It’s that time of the year again for the annual family beach retreat. Over the past few years, TFTB has become a regular series of posts on the markets and economy from a “detached,” and slightly more relaxed, point of view.

Retirees May Have A Spend Down Problem
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 7/12/16
A couple of week’s ago I discussed the importance of understanding the difference between compounded annualized returns and real annualized returns.

Here Is Why You Shouldn’t Benchmark Your Portfolio
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 7/5/16
When markets begin to decline, particularly after extremely long periods of advances, there is a rush by the media and financial bloggers to proclaim “patience.” These claims are generally accompanied by advice to just “hold on” to investments and ride out the volatility over the long-term. After all, the index always rises, right?

Soros: Rudimentary Theory Of Bubbles
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 6/20/16
Of the last few weeks, I have touched on the impact of valuations and forward returns. However, it is not just valuations that are an issue, but also the surge in corporate debt, balance sheet leverage combined with declining profitability which is a result of weak economic growth. All in all, such a combination of factors have historically been associated with “bear markets” in equities.

Why The Next Decade Will Foil Financial Plans
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 6/13/16
This morning I received a “financial plan” from an individual wanting me to review it with respect to his personal retirement goals. The plan was generated by one of the many “off the shelf” software packages that takes all the inputs of income, assets, pensions, social security, etc., and then spits out assumptions of future asset values and drawdowns in retirement. The problem is that the return assumptions were grossly flawed.

Dalbar, 2016: Yes, You Still Suck At Investing (Tips For Advisors)
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 6/7/16
A couple of years ago I wrote an article discussing Dalbar’s annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study. The study showed just how poorly investors perform relative to market benchmarks over time and the reasons for that underperformance.

Technically Speaking: What Has The Fed Wrought
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/31/16
Given the markets were closed on Monday, the analysis from this past weekend’s missive did not change.

Rosengren Likely Mistaken About Hiking Rates
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/24/16
Over the weekend, Sam Fleming with the Financial Times interviewed Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren about why the Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Economy In Pictures: Weakness Continues
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/17/16
As we begin to wrap up the 2nd quarter of the year, I thought it was time to revisit the economy as the backdrop against expectations for stronger economic growth, rising inflationary pressures and an increase in interest rates and expectations.

3 Things: Explaining The Consumption-Disfunction
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/13/16
Since 2009, mainstream economists, the media, and the Fed have continued to prognosticate a resurgence of economic growth. Yet each year, as shown in the chart of Fed forecasts below, such predictions have repeatedly overstated reality.

Technically Speaking: Importance Of Duration Matching
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/10/16
I am going to take a little deviation from the normal “technical update” to discuss an issue that is very important, and always overlooked, by mainstream analysis – “duration.”

Why $19 Trillion In Debt IS A Problem
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/3/16
According to the World Economic Forum, the United States has achieved a new TOP 10 ranking. Tell us what we’ve won Bob.

Technically Speaking: Time To Sell Oil/Energy?
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 4/27/16
Over the last several weeks, in both the daily blog and weekly newsletter, I have been laying out the technical case for a breakout above the downtrend. As I stated, while such a breakout would demand a subsequent increase in equity risk in portfolios, I didn’t like it.

The Great American Economic Growth Myth
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 4/19/16
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. As I showed in my discussion of the Fed’s forecasts, these predictions have continued to fall short of reality.

Technically Speaking: Bull Versus Bear Case
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 4/12/16
As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. Despite weakening earnings, which on an as reported basis are far worse than the rather manipulated “operating” levels currently suggest, the bulls have remained steadfast in their belief that prices are on a one-way trip higher.

Is Trump’s “Recession Warning” Really All Wrong?
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 4/5/16
Over the weekend, Donald Trump, in an interview with the Washington Post, stated that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market.

3 Things: Fed Levitation, Employment, Savings Rate
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 3/31/16
What is going on at the Federal Reserve? On Tuesday, Janet Yellen comes out and announces that despite inflation being on the rise and employment below 5%, she is not going to raise the Fed Funds rate 4-times this year, nor even two times this year, but rather most likely none. Of course, this “one and done” scenario is what I suggested back in December following the first rate hike given the ongoing deterioration in the underlying economic backdrop.

7-Deadly Investing Sins
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 3/21/16
If you were raised in a religious household, or were sent to a Catholic school, you have heard of the seven deadly sins. These transgressions — wrath, greed, sloth, pride, lust, envy, and gluttony — are human tendencies that, if not overcome, can lead to other sins and a path straight to the netherworld. In the investing world, these same seven deadly sins apply. These “behaviors,” just like in life, lead to poor investing outcomes. Therefore, to be a better investor, we must recognize these “moral transgressions” and learn how to overcome them.

The Chart Every 25-Year-Old Should Ignore
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 3/15/16
There are two primary reasons Millennials aren’t saving like they should. The first is the lack of money to save, the second is the lack of trust in Wall Street. A recent post from JP Morgan, via Andy Kiersz, got me to thinking on this issue.

Analyzing Earnings As Of Q4 2015
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 3/7/16
With the 97.8% of fourth quarter earnings reports for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 4th quarter of 2015.

Buffett’s Fallacy – 2% Growth & Future Prosperity
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 2/29/16
Warren Buffett, in his latest annual letter to shareholders, took aim at the idea that 2% real economic growth wasn’t sufficient to create economic prosperity for future generations was wrong.

Debt vs Growth: Correlation or Causation
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 2/24/16
Recently, my article on weak economic underpinnings led to an interesting exchange, via Twitter, with Steve Chapman regarding debt and the impact on economic growth.

Common Mistakes Most Investors Make
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 2/16/16
Individuals are consistently promised that investing in the financial markets is the only way to financial success. After all, it’s so easy. Financial pundits across the country state the one simply buys a basket of mutual funds and they will make 8, 10 or 12% a year.

Technically Speaking: Psychology Of Loss
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 2/11/16
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the formation of a very important “head and shoulders” topping pattern in the market. I know…I know. As soon as I wrote that I could almost hear the cries of the “perma-bull” crowd exclaiming “how many times have we heard that before.” They would be right. The problem with the majority of technical analysis, in my opinion, is that time frames are too short for most investors. When looking at technical price patterns using daily data, there have been numerous occasions where analysts have spotted “Head and Shoulder” patterns,

Rally Fails, Alerts Rise
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 2/8/16
Last week, I discussed the boost the market received as the BOJ made an unexpected move into negative interest rate territory combined with end of the month buying by portfolio managers.

Why You Should Question “Buy And Hold” Advice
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 1/26/16
I recently received an email from an individual that contained the following bit of portfolio advice from a major financial institution: “Despite the tumble to begin this year, investors should not panic. Over the long-term course of the markets, investors who have remained patient have been rewarded. Since 1900, the average return to investors has been almost 10% annually…our advice is to remain invested, avoid making drastic movements in your portfolio, and ignore the volatility.”

Technically Speaking: Managing A Trend Change
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 1/14/16
In last weekend’s newsletter I discussed the ongoing topping process and the issuance of all three “sell signals,” which only occur at major market peaks.

7-Investment Lessons From Mom
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 12/28/15
When I was growing up my mother had a saying, or an answer, for just about everything…as do most mothers. Every answer to the question “Why?” was immediately met with the most intellectual of answers; “…because I said so”. Seriously, my mother was a resource of knowledge that has served me well over the years and it wasn’t until late in life that I realized that she had taught me the basic principles to staying safe in the world of financial investments.

5 Investing Myths That Will Hurt You
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 12/22/15
In the summer of 1885 William R. Travers, prominent NYC businessman and builder of Saratoga Race Track, was vacationing in Newport, Rhode Island. He pointed out a long line of beautiful yachts tied up in the harbor. When he was informed that they all belonged to Wall Street brokers he simply asked, “Where are their clients’ yachts?”.

The Important Role Of Recessions
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 12/17/15
My friend and colleague, Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research, recently penned a response to Larry Summers commentary on the economy’s weakened ability to withstand higher interest rates.

3 Charts The Fed Should Consider
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 12/15/15
This week, the Fed will meet to decide the “fate of the universe,” as they are highly anticipated to announce the first rate hike in a decade. This is a momentous occasion as it marks the end of the “ultra-accommodative” monetary policy that has been the primary driver behind asset prices since the end of the financial crisis.
Results 751–793 of 793 found.