The potential economic and market impacts a “Blue Wave” for the U.S. election could have on five key areas: taxes, labor, the environment, oil and trade.
The transportation sector in the municipal bond market faces significant headwinds as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
High-yield bonds can generally offer more income in a very low-interest-rate world. However, if the economic or stock market outlook deteriorates, it could be a bumpy ride.
With investors already on edge regarding election uncertainty, an “October surprise” arrives yet again. Can history provide some guidance on how elections impact markets?
The biggest political risk facing investors may be the potential for politicians to implement national lockdowns in response to a rise in new COVID-19 cases that could lead to renewed recession and a new bear market for stocks.
When a stock index falls by more than 10%, it is often said to have entered “correction” territory. That’s a fairly neutral term for what feels like a nerve-wracking drop to many investors. What does a correction mean? What’s likely to happen after a correction, and what can you do to help your portfolio weather the downturn?
As of this writing, it’s a rough start to the week for U.S. equities. Major indices attempted to find more stable ground last week, but volatility risks persist and the bears are winning the latest round. Policy risks abound—not just election-related, but both monetary and fiscal policy as well.
Fed maintained rates at near-zero, while also updating its summary of economic projections; now expecting a shallower economic contraction, but a slower recovery thereafter.
Markets have been walking a fine line, with a still-struggling economy on one side and hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough on the other. Heading into the fourth quarter, there are both encouraging signs and cause for caution.
The risk of a “no deal” Brexit and the potential economic harm that accompanies it increased last week.
The U.S. stock market hit pause in early September, as investors took a harder look at market overconcentration and frothy sentiment. Meanwhile, global economies may be entering a new phase, and the Federal Reserve’s newly announced inflation policy is likely to keep U.S. rates lower for longer.
The Federal Reserve has changed its inflation policy. Here’s what it may mean for markets.
Rotation away from the market’s prior momentum darlings continues. Friday’s jobs report had bullets for both the optimists’ and pessimists’ case studies. And improving productivity, partly due to work-from-home trends, could persist as a positive economic driver.
Major tech-focused shares fell after helping drive the fastest stock market recovery in history.
Prior to Hurricane Laura making landfall in Louisiana and the wildfires in California and parts of the West igniting, the U.S. had already experienced 10 different billion-dollar natural disasters this year.
Bond investors face a challenging environment. The federal funds rate is back near zero, the 10-year Treasury yield remains stuck in a 0.5%-to-0.75% range, and inflation-adjusted (real) yields are deep in negative territory.
The recent imbalances in the stock market can lead to vulnerability; rebalancing portfolios may be valuable to help balance exposure to U.S. capitalization-weighted benchmarks relative to international stocks.
The move away from a precise 2% target likely means short-term rates will stay lower for longer.
In a speedy round-trip, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week; meaning the rally since March is now an “official” bull market.
Treasury bond yields have been drifting quietly lower since early June. But there is more going on beneath the surface than it might seem at first glance. Real yields—nominal yields less inflation—have declined steeply into negative territory. While nominal yields are near record-low levels from the deep economic decline, inflation expectations are picking up.
Confidence matters; faith in a brighter future drives risk taking, fueling growth through investment and consumption.
Although certain high-frequency data haven’t improved markedly, the threat of the virus has started to recede.
The July labor market report had talking points for both the economic bulls and bears; with Congress on the hot seat to keep the recovery from faltering.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can help protect your portfolio against rising inflation, but there are nuances you should understand.
There’s a small portion of the bond market that investors may have overlooked in the past, but should now consider—the taxable municipal bond market.
Let’s take a look at how recent developments may have impacted long-term returns for stock market investors.
The U.S. dollar has fallen by about 7% against a broad basket of currencies since its mid-March peak. After a nearly decade-long bull market that saw it appreciate by more than 40%, we believe the dollar could be headed for a longer-term decline.
The Fed left rates unchanged near-zero, as expected, while emphasizing that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”
Earnings have so far bested an extremely low bar, but stocks may be discounting too swift a recovery; while concentration remains a risk.
Investors must balance ongoing risks of the coronavirus against the extra yield the bonds provide.
If not extended or replaced, the fading support for the unemployed raises the risk of weakening economic momentum, turning the V-shaped recovery into a W.
U.S. stocks have been fairly resilient lately, even as coronavirus hotspots flare up around the country. Although consumers and businesses are increasingly worried about rolling shutdowns, major stock indexes generally have moved sideways. How long can this continue? Much depends on the shape of the economic recovery.
Rate of change and inflection points in economic data drive stocks; but in these unique times, the level of said data needs to be considered, too.
The first half of 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the municipal bond market hard. State and local governments experienced a sharp and sudden drop in revenue, and an increase in expenses, amid stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns.
We believe the risk that preferred-stock dividends will be suspended is low despite the recent announcement by the Federal Reserve that it is requiring banks to cap their common stock dividends.
While no one is ever really comfortable losing money, we often hear from investors that they are most uncomfortable when it seems that the stock market isn’t making any sense whether it’s heading up or down. In order to help try to make sense of it all, let’s take a look at where the stock market makes sense right now and where it doesn’t.
COVID-19 headlines dominated equity market action last week, with the S&P 500 suffering a near-3% decline; although all is not grim. The number of virus cases has been spiking in states that opened earliest—including my new home state of Florida, which went from a mid-60s average age for confirmed cases to the current mid-30s average age.
Investors should consider these various investments—cautiously. Given the challenging economic outlook and high level of uncertainty, we believe bouts of volatility are possible, albeit not to the level witnessed in February and March.
A second wave of global COVID-19 is getting a lot of media attention, but the appearance of a global second wave of cases is primarily driven by the different timing of first waves across countries—rather than second waves within countries.
As the economy reopens from COVID-19 restrictions, a question looms: What will colleges and universities look like come fall? Will students return to a more normal on-campus learning experience, some form of online experience, a combination of both … or will they simply not return?
Economies and markets whipsawed in the first half of 2020. Here’s what we expect for the rest of the year.
Returns for most fixed income asset classes are positive so far this year, but the numbers mask the rocky road markets have traveled since January.
Investors often think of municipal bonds, which are sold by local and state governments to fund public projects like building new schools and repairing city sewer systems, as being totally tax-free—but that’s not always the case.
Why did stocks rise over the past month despite grim economic news? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injection is one reason.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 0-0.25% and said it will keep them near zero through at least 2022, in a unanimous vote.
In our 2020 Global Market Outlook, we cited many indicators pointing to heightened risk of a recession; now we highlight increasing signs of a recovery from one.
The dominant question we’ve been getting from investors is about the perceived disconnect between what’s happening on Main Street and what’s happening on Wall Street.
There may be something amiss with the stock market rebound. Ahead of any meaningful improvement in economic data, global stocks have gained about 30% over the past two months from their low on March 23, as measured by the MSCI World Index.
When the COVID-19 crisis shook markets in March, the Federal Reserve moved early and aggressively to help increase liquidity in financial markets.
On a day that started with good news on an experimental COVID-19 vaccine, with the stock market showing strong early gains, today’s report is more visual and less wordy than normal. Since I know not every reader of these publications follows me on Twitter—where I’m constantly posting charts, tables and data that I find compelling...
