Treasury bond yields have been drifting quietly lower since early June. But there is more going on beneath the surface than it might seem at first glance. Real yields—nominal yields less inflation—have declined steeply into negative territory. While nominal yields are near record-low levels from the deep economic decline, inflation expectations are picking up.
Confidence matters; faith in a brighter future drives risk taking, fueling growth through investment and consumption.
Although certain high-frequency data haven’t improved markedly, the threat of the virus has started to recede.
The July labor market report had talking points for both the economic bulls and bears; with Congress on the hot seat to keep the recovery from faltering.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can help protect your portfolio against rising inflation, but there are nuances you should understand.
There’s a small portion of the bond market that investors may have overlooked in the past, but should now consider—the taxable municipal bond market.
Let’s take a look at how recent developments may have impacted long-term returns for stock market investors.
The U.S. dollar has fallen by about 7% against a broad basket of currencies since its mid-March peak. After a nearly decade-long bull market that saw it appreciate by more than 40%, we believe the dollar could be headed for a longer-term decline.
The Fed left rates unchanged near-zero, as expected, while emphasizing that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”
Earnings have so far bested an extremely low bar, but stocks may be discounting too swift a recovery; while concentration remains a risk.
Investors must balance ongoing risks of the coronavirus against the extra yield the bonds provide.
If not extended or replaced, the fading support for the unemployed raises the risk of weakening economic momentum, turning the V-shaped recovery into a W.
U.S. stocks have been fairly resilient lately, even as coronavirus hotspots flare up around the country. Although consumers and businesses are increasingly worried about rolling shutdowns, major stock indexes generally have moved sideways. How long can this continue? Much depends on the shape of the economic recovery.
Rate of change and inflection points in economic data drive stocks; but in these unique times, the level of said data needs to be considered, too.
The first half of 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the municipal bond market hard. State and local governments experienced a sharp and sudden drop in revenue, and an increase in expenses, amid stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns.
We believe the risk that preferred-stock dividends will be suspended is low despite the recent announcement by the Federal Reserve that it is requiring banks to cap their common stock dividends.
While no one is ever really comfortable losing money, we often hear from investors that they are most uncomfortable when it seems that the stock market isn’t making any sense whether it’s heading up or down. In order to help try to make sense of it all, let’s take a look at where the stock market makes sense right now and where it doesn’t.
COVID-19 headlines dominated equity market action last week, with the S&P 500 suffering a near-3% decline; although all is not grim. The number of virus cases has been spiking in states that opened earliest—including my new home state of Florida, which went from a mid-60s average age for confirmed cases to the current mid-30s average age.
Investors should consider these various investments—cautiously. Given the challenging economic outlook and high level of uncertainty, we believe bouts of volatility are possible, albeit not to the level witnessed in February and March.
A second wave of global COVID-19 is getting a lot of media attention, but the appearance of a global second wave of cases is primarily driven by the different timing of first waves across countries—rather than second waves within countries.
As the economy reopens from COVID-19 restrictions, a question looms: What will colleges and universities look like come fall? Will students return to a more normal on-campus learning experience, some form of online experience, a combination of both … or will they simply not return?
Economies and markets whipsawed in the first half of 2020. Here’s what we expect for the rest of the year.
Returns for most fixed income asset classes are positive so far this year, but the numbers mask the rocky road markets have traveled since January.
Investors often think of municipal bonds, which are sold by local and state governments to fund public projects like building new schools and repairing city sewer systems, as being totally tax-free—but that’s not always the case.
Why did stocks rise over the past month despite grim economic news? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injection is one reason.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 0-0.25% and said it will keep them near zero through at least 2022, in a unanimous vote.
In our 2020 Global Market Outlook, we cited many indicators pointing to heightened risk of a recession; now we highlight increasing signs of a recovery from one.
The dominant question we’ve been getting from investors is about the perceived disconnect between what’s happening on Main Street and what’s happening on Wall Street.
There may be something amiss with the stock market rebound. Ahead of any meaningful improvement in economic data, global stocks have gained about 30% over the past two months from their low on March 23, as measured by the MSCI World Index.
When the COVID-19 crisis shook markets in March, the Federal Reserve moved early and aggressively to help increase liquidity in financial markets.
On a day that started with good news on an experimental COVID-19 vaccine, with the stock market showing strong early gains, today’s report is more visual and less wordy than normal. Since I know not every reader of these publications follows me on Twitter—where I’m constantly posting charts, tables and data that I find compelling...
It is becoming increasingly clear that the massive global stimulus is being financed by a rise in money, not debt.
Negative corporate news and economic data buffeted stocks, after markets racked up wins in April.
Both the bear market and subsequent rally have occurred at warp speed; yet the economic recovery may be disappointing to what the market’s now “priced in.”
The FOMC restated its commitment to use its full range of tools to support the virus-crippled economy and keep markets functioning smoothly.
A lot has happened in the month following global stocks’ low on March 23, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index. Nearly every major country seems to have put the peak in new COVID-19 cases behind them by several weeks and the discussion has now turned to the timing and staging of re-openings.
Coronavirus-related stay-at-home orders and falling consumer demand have been extremely challenging for small businesses. If you’re a small-business owner, make sure you’re taking advantage of the help that’s available.
The effects of COVID-19 have been tough on the Energy sector, to say the least. With businesses around the global shuttered and vacations called off—and an estimated 40% of the global population ordered to stay at home—demand has fallen sharply. And that has taken both the price of oil and energy stocks down with it.
With the U.S. corporate default rate likely to rise, a growing number of investors may be wondering what they should do if their bond issuer is unable to repay its debts. Unfortunately, the answer isn’t always straightforward. There are, however, several things corporate bond investors should know.
Oil prices fell below zero on Monday for the first time in at least 155 years, dragging major stock indexes down, as well. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell to -$37.63 per barrel during trading on Monday...
Stocks and earnings don’t always move in tandem; with stocks typically leading earnings … but is the market’s rally too much, too soon?
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the U.S. economy, with containment efforts leading to widespread business closings and surging unemployment—and stock market volatility. The key questions now are when can the economy reopen, and what happens when it does?
Weak data revived investor concerns about the economic impact.
While the COVID-19 crisis is far from over, we expect central bank and government policies to be key to performance in the second quarter.
The most widely used measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), will soon be released for the first quarter by different countries.
Labor market data has never looked as ugly, with more hits to come; but many are looking ahead at what an eventual recovery will look like.
U.S. stocks ended lower Friday, capping a volatile week of swings both higher and lower, as investors reckoned with the increasing evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic toll.
Stocks dropped on Wednesday as investors focused on growing fears about the human and economic toll of COVID-19. The S&P 500 index lost 4.4% on Tuesday, and at the close of trading was down about 27% from its February peak.
In a typical recession, the global economy tends to have large imbalances that take a long time to unwind, such as a housing bubble or overinvestment by businesses. This time the global economy is experiencing a shock, rather than the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses.
