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Hasenstab: Little Value in U.S. Treasuries Right Now
The financial markets may have let out a collective sigh of relief on January 1 when U.S. politicians managed to avoid falling off the fiscal cliff, but the fact is the fundamental issue plaguing the U.S. still hasn't been addressed mounting debt. As a result, Dr. Michael Hasenstab, co-director of the International Bond Department and portfolio manager for the Templeton Global Bond Fund, says he doesn't see much value in U.S. Treasuries right now. He does see it elsewhere in the world, though, including Ireland and select emerging markets where fiscal houses appear in much better order.
Americas: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
The outlook for most economies in the Americas region improved during the fourth quarter as domestic consumption growth was sustained and the anticipated revival in global demand has lifted the prospects for export growth this year. Partly helped by fiscal and monetary policy measures introduced since 2011, consumer demand has held up across most countries in the region.
Resource Investors: Why You Can Expect Sunnier Days Ahead
During the current commodity supercycle, there have been occasionstoo many to countwhen investor psyche has been damaged by reports about slowing U.S. growth, a hard landing in China or a debt crisis in Europe. Yet just behind the gloom, significant and positive trends are taking hold, causing the storms to start dissipating.
The Case for Japan with a Caveat
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While Im optimistic that Japanese stocks can move higher in coming months, Id advocate investing in them only if dollar-based investors have the flexibility to hedge the currency effect of a weaker yen (more on that below). So with that caveat out of the way, here are four reasons why I think Japanese stocks can move higher in the near term.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging Asia Pacific economies showed strong signals of a rebound in economic activity amidst generally rising exports and stabilizing inflation. While some major economies like China, which had cut interest rates throughout 2012 to stimulate the economy, saw a mild resurgence in inflation, many countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Philippines saw inflation stabilize significantly during the quarter. Still, India, the region's second largest economy, continued to be troubled by rising prices despite high interest rates.
German Gold Claw Back Causes Concern
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
Last week the Bundesbank (the German central bank) surprised markets around the world by announcing that it will repatriate a sizable portion of its gold bullion reserves held in France and the United States. To many, the news from the world's second largest holder of gold signaled a growing, if clandestine, mistrust among central banks, possibly fueled by diverging policy goals. The Germans have attempted to tamp down the alarm by highlighting the myriad of logistical, practical and historical reasons that qualified the announcement as unremarkable.
Economic Backdrop Supports Stocks, Credit Sectors and Munis
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Thanks to solid earnings, some decent (if mixed) economic news and indications that the debt ceiling debate may be delayed slightly, stocks posted additional gains last week, continuing their strong start to 2013. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 1.2% to 13,649, the S&P 500 index advanced 1.0% to 1,485 and the NASDAQ composite rose 0.3% to 3,134. Bonds have remained relatively steady, with the 10-year Us treasury closing the week at a yield of 1.84%, two one-hundredths lower than the previous Friday close.
Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - 4Q 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies witnessed mixed economic fortunes during the fourth quarter of 2012. While the group's largest economy, Japan, suffered from stubborn deflation and slumping trade due to a bitter territorial dispute with China, Singapore and Hong Kong managed to fare better.
Puppet Show
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
What's fascinating is that in the presence of what are not thin strings, but massive cables supporting the economy like a puppet, the only response that Wall Street can muster is "Hey! He's walking!" as if the puppet is capable of motion without being propped up to a nearly reckless extent.
Ten for '13
Last year, despite the noise surrounding the U.S. elections and the ongoing European debt crisis, the main drivers of asset prices arguably were the large-scale bond-buying programs put in place by global central banks to alleviate systemic pressures. In 2013, we anticipate fewer aggressive central bank actions as the pace of global growth gradually picks up. We believe the largest influential factors to our outlook are premature fiscal tightening in the U.S. and a potential resurgence of eurozone problems.
The Allure of Panda Coins
by Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia,
While I waited in another long line in San Francisco International Airport recently, I struck up a conversation with the gentleman behind me. It turned out we were both returning from research trips in China. But rather than being an investor of securities as I am, this fellow traveler was an investor in Chinese coins, specifically, panda coins.
2013 International Outlook
by Colin Moore of Columbia Management,
We continue our outlook for 2013 with a review of select international economies and financial markets. Similar to the U.S. the road to recovery will be bumpy and we expect financial markets to continue being affected by macroeconomic uncertainties. While the overall environment remains uncertain, some of the significant headwinds in 2012, e.g. the Chinese leadership transition and a complete disintegration of the eurozone, are perhaps less concerning for markets than they were a year ago.
International Equity Commentary December 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices made robust gains in December, as further improvement in economic trends across most regions lifted the outlook for 2013. Policymakers in the U.S. managed to put together an agreement at the last minute and averted the 'fiscal cliff', one of the major risks that had restricted investor sentiment during earlier months. In Europe, though economic signals remain largely weak, the further fall in bond yields of the troubled countries has helped sustain optimism about resolving the region's fiscal crisis this year.
Global Economic Overview - December 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
The global economic outlook brightened further in December, as economic data from most regions indicated sustained, though moderate, improvement in both domestic and external demand. Europe showed further signs of stabilization in the financial markets, as bond yields of the most troubled countries continued to decline in response to the earlier assurance by the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds.
The Rise of Asia's REITs
by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia,
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Asia are following in the footsteps of their U.S. counterparts as they become an increasingly important asset class attracting investors looking to gain exposure to a diversified pool of real assets and relatively high yields. In the past decade, REITs have become a growing force in the regions investment universe. This month Sherwood Zhang, CFA, takes a look at just how far Asia's REIT markets have come, and what new opportunities as well as risks may still exist.
Demographics and the Decline of Equity Mutual Funds
by Paul Franchi,
Until the last few years, mutual fund flows followed performance. Recently, however, money has flowed disproportionately into bond funds and out of US equity funds despite a strong rally in the equity markets. Changing demographics explain this shift, which has important implications for advisors and the mutual fund industry.
Japan: Tip of the Spear
On Sunday, December 16, 2012, Shinzo Abe, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led his coalition to a decisive electoral victory in Japan. The LDP won 294 out of 480 seats and, with the additional 29 seats captured by its coalition partner, the New Komeito Party, will control the lower house in the Japanese Diet. Abe was named the new prime minister ten days later.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: December 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equities outperformed during the month of December, helped by signs of further improvement in the economic growth outlook. Economic data released over the month were largely positive for most emerging countries, and strengthened the optimism that these markets could see a moderate improvement in growth rates during 2013.
On the Road in India
India appears to be on its way to becoming a major market for motor vehicles. Annual car and truck sales currently in India are roughly one third of the 15 million units produced in the U.S., but the pace of growth has been high. The total population of registered motor vehicles in India numbered more than 100 million in 2008- 2009, with consumer vehicles (passenger cars, motorcycles and scooters) accounting for about 4/5 of the total.
New Year's Vantage Point: Norm Boersma
As we ring in a new year, it's a good time to gain some perspective on where we've been, and where we might be headed. Norm Boersma, CFA, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, takes a look at the current headwinds facing the global equity markets, from fiscal imbalances to growth challengesand how market uncertainty can result in market mispricings.
Pacific Basin Market Overview - December 2012
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Equity markets ended the year on an upbeat note, shrugging off concerns over the impending "fiscal cliff" while focusing on better economic data from the U.S. and China. In Japan, expectations of a higher inflation target and a depreciating yen brought some overseas investors back to the Tokyo stock market. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 5.6%, while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index also closed 5.6% higher in the October-December quarter of 2012.
Abe's Return May Prod Japan Forward
by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia,
Japan's politics have entered 2013 with a mixed freshness. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has clinched a rare second shot at the prime minister's post. His first term, which began in late 2006, lasted only about a year and ended with his sudden resignation. But following its landslide victory last month, his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has secured a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat Lower House, giving it the constitutional power to override Upper House opposition, where no single party holds a majority, on almost all issues.
Special Edition: The Outlook for 2013
by Team of Northern Trust,
At this time of the year we typically get warm and generous wishes for the New Year and, of course, numerous questions about what our crystal ball has in store for 2013. While many economists publish their perspectives prior to January 1, we opted to wait in the hope of having a clear fiscal picture for the United States. A lot of good that did us...
A New Years Vantage Point: Michael Hasenstab
As we ring in a new year, it's a good time to gain some perspective on where we've been, and where we might be headed. In the first few weeks of January, Beyond Bulls & Bears will be featuring a series of investment commentaries from select Franklin Templeton investment management teams. These professionals provide their insights on the market ups and downs of 2012, and the potential challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead from their respective vantage points. Today we hear from Michael Hasenstab, portfolio manager and co-director of the International Bond Department.
Surging EM Corporate Bond Issuance: Cause for Concern?
by Shamaila Khan of AllianceBernstein,
New bond issuance by emerging-market companies boomed in 2012, leading to fears of a bubble. But we think this market growth is positive for investors, rather than a harbinger of soaring debt levels or deteriorating credit quality.
Ring in the New
The "year of the dragon" in 2012 certainly didnt disappoint, as the global markets battled one financial dragon after another. From the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis to persistently high unemployment in the U.S. and a mayday call from many who worried that China's growth rate was headed for a "hard landing," 2012 certainly was interesting. As we turn the calendar page to 2013, the Eurozone seems to be in less-critical condition and China's economic growth still appears to be flying but as of this writing, the U.S. debt problems still haven't been solved.
Korea's First Female President
by Michael Han of Matthews Asia,
South Korea's president-elect Park Geun Hye will become the country's first female leader when she takes office in late February for a single five-year term. The tight December race drew much attention as well as the highest voter turnout (over 70%) for Korea in over a decade. Park defeated Moon Jae In, a human rights lawyer who was once jailed for opposing the dictatorial regime of Park's father, Park Chung Hee.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Welcome to the end of 2012. Investors are hardly basking in the glow of a positive year for stocks. They are less than enthusiastic about the recovery in housing. They seem to be overlooking the actions of the Fed and the implications for the indefinite low rate environment. Two words remain firmly entrenched in the minds. FISCAL CLIFF. What say you (besides bickering and backstabbing)Prez O, Speaker Boehner, Senators McConnell and Reid? Time is running out and five straight down days proves that investors are growing more and more nervous. Happy New Year (I think).
2013 Forecast: Good Economy, Challenged Markets
We enter 2013 bombarded by conflicting signals. While fundamentals have been mixed of late, longer-term themes our "tectonic shifts" like the energy revolution are gaining momentum and promising to make positive contributions sooner rather than later. And while salutary measures taken by policymakers have eased global risks and lessened fears of Armageddon, there is considerable work yet to be done.
Thailand: M&A Boom a Sign of Economic Resurgence?
by Team of Thomas White International,
Chaleo Yoovidhya was born in northern Thailand where his immigrant family scraped a living raising ducks and selling fruits. Without any formal education or vocational skills, he had nothing to fall back upon in his youth. But that didn't stop him from founding his own pharmaceutical company and developing what has turned out to be arguably the world's most popular energy drink Red Bull. In March 2012, Yoovidhya died aged 89 the third richest Thai and a towering figure in Southeast Asia's business community.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Welcome to the end of 2012. Investors are hardly basking in the glow of a positive year for stocks. They are less than enthusiastic about the recovery in housing. They seem to be overlooking the actions of the Fed and the implications for the indefinite low rate environment. Two words remain firmly entrenched in the minds. FISCAL CLIFF. What say you (besides bickering and backstabbing)Prez O, Speaker Boehner, Senators McConnell and Reid? Time is running out and five straight down days proves that investors are growing more and more nervous. Happy New Year (I think).
Don't Wait for the Robins: Investment Strategy for 2013
by Pamela Rosenau of HighTower Advisors,
Warren Buffet once remarked, "If you wait for the robins, spring will be over." "Uncertainty" has been an overarching issue since the financial crisis of 2008 and one of the principal reasons that investors have remained on the sidelines away from the equity markets. As it has been a part of the investment lexicon, "uncertainty" will always exist in some capacity. In 2012, investors began by focusing on European issues, then the U.S. election, and now the fiscal cliff. In fact, when there is little uncertainty and investors appear unafraid, one should be more concerned.
The Consumer Catalyst in Asia's Emerging Markets
There may be no better evidence of the economic power of the consumer than the spending frenzy that occurs this time of yearthe sparkling lights, the must-have gifts and gadgets, the indulgent meals. Whether online, brick and mortar, big box or mom-and-pop, retailers count on the year-end consumer boom.
PIMCO's Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
Our base case for China includes incremental policy reform, but we also see an increased chance of a potential positive surprise on reform, resulting from the recent changes in leadership. Japan's new government will likely focus on reflating the structurally impaired economy, but policy effectiveness will remain questionable. Australia is being burdened by the unintended consequences of the policy responses of others, accompanied by the impending rebalancing of the Chinese economy.
Jeremy Siegel on 'Dow 15,000'
by Robert Huebscher,
Jeremy Siegel was one of very few individuals to have correctly predicted the strong performance of the equity markets over the last year. The Wharton professor and author of the renowned book, Stocks for the Long Run, forecasts continued strong performance for the year ahead.
Energy Face-Off: North American Energy Independence vs. Canada's Export Plans
by John Devir of PIMCO,
President Obama's November 2011 postponement of a decision on whether to permit an oil pipeline from Canada's oil sands to the U.S. Gulf Coast caused a barrage of protests and negative press in Canada. Canada's new focus on building capacity to sell to Asia-Pacific could hinder U.S. ambitions of energy independence from overseas oil, since the U.S. imports roughly 30% of its crude oil from Canada. We see investor opportunities in rail transportation and pipeline systems that possess excess capacity.
Fine Wine - Why it's for More than Just Drinking
For many investors, an ideal asset class would combine superior long-term absolute and risk-adjusted returns with a hedge against inflation and stock market volatility. There's a way to get all of that, in an asset class you might never have thought of until now: fine wine. Investment-grade wine deserves careful consideration, particularly now that - unlike other collectibles, such as art and rare books - it can be traded on a regulated exchange.
Postcard from Malaysia
by In-Bok Song of Matthews Asia,
During a recent trip to Malaysia I had the opportunity to visit several oil and gas companies. Northeast Asia, most notably Japan and China, already accounts for a considerable amount of energy consumption and is heavily dependent on imports. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, which has lower industrial development and warmer weather conditions, has traditionally shown to have relatively abundant oil and gas resources. Naturally, this has led the region to be a major exporter of energy.
Emerging Asias Rising Productivity
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
Per capita GDP in China has tripled in purchasing power parity terms in the last decade yet Chinese workers still likely have their most productive years ahead of them. Asia as a whole has seen consumption increase by a third since the global financial crisis, even as the West has languished. This month, Robert Horrocks, writes about what is key to the emerging opportunities in Asia: Productivity.
Pacific Basin Market Overview - October 2012
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Equity markets derived support this month from improved U.S. economic data and an impression that China's economy might be bottoming out. In addition, the Euro Area Industrial Production numbers came in above consensus. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan declined by 0.39% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index gained 0.44% in October 2012.
Rediscovering the Golden Beauty of Myanmar
Myanmar has been called "probably the best investment opportunity in the world right now," by legendary international investor Jim Rogers. In an interview with The Myanmar Times, he compared the country formerly known as Burma to China in the 1970s, when it started opening up to the world. "In 1962, Burma was the richest country in Asia. Then they closed and [now] it is the poorest."
Americas: Economic Review 3rd Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Economic trends in most countries across the Americas region saw a moderate recovery during the third quarter, though the pace of growth remains subdued. Slower global demand due to the ongoing European recession and the slower expansion in Asia continues to restrict exports from the Americas. At the same time, domestic consumption growth has been relatively more robust than expected and has helped most regional economies prevent a deeper slowdown.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review 3rd Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging Asia Pacific economies faced a challenging third quarter in 2012 as exports to key developed markets such as the Euro-zone came under pressure. As the austerity policies implemented by many of the countries in the Euro-zone caused a significant slump in demand, emerging market economies, which serve as the workshop of the world faced significant difficulties. Almost all major export-dependent nations like China, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia faced pressure to export growth. Still, most of the economies possessed both monetary and fiscal ammo to overcome the slowdown.
The Prize for the Fiduciary Standard: Global Market Leadership
by Stephen Winks,
Tough times in the brokerage business are about to get tougher. A difficult investment environment and damage to its reputation are threatening the industry, and now it faces regulatory challenges under Dodd-Frank as it evolves from its current sales-driven culture to a professional services culture focused on advice and the fiduciary standard. Bold leadership will be necessary to navigate this challenge; without it, the brokerage industry and their clients will suffer.
Results 4,101–4,150
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