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Asia-Pacific Portfolio Committee on PIMCOs Cyclical Outlook
We do not expect to see aggressively expansionary policy to combat the incremental economic slowdown in China. We believe that most countries in emerging Asia will continue to put their currency appreciation on hold, as inflation is expected to remain subdued over the cyclical horizon.
We are concerned about the sustainability of Japans economic growth beyond 2012, as the governments reconstruction spending will fade in 2013. Relatively speaking, Australia is indeed a beneficiary of higher commodity prices as a result of the strong demand for coal, iron ore and liquid natural gas.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economic Review 1st Quarter 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies showed more promise in the first three months of 2012 compared to the gloomy scenario witnessed during the last quarter of 2011. A marked upturn in the U.S. economy along with receding fears about the debt crisis in Europe gave a fillip to export-based economies in Asia such as Japan and Singapore. Whats more, inflation in most of the developed Asia Pacific economies became less of a concern during the first two months of 2012, with Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand all reporting subdued inflation.
HBS Research: The Role of Business in Society
by Michael Edesess,
Many people believe that society needs to change for market capitalism to be sustainable - and it turns out a surprising number of business leaders are among them. That's the finding of a recent series of forums, organized by three Harvard Business School professors. Based on these discussions, the HBS professors advance a bold proposal - that business itself - not government, or even public-spirited nonprofits - should lead the charge to make the necessary changes to our capitalist system.
The World's a Little Richer
The World Bank released an update to its consumption poverty estimates in developing countries, and for the first time ever, the organization found progress in all the regions they track. In terms of the number and percentage of people living on $1.25 a day at 2005 prices in 130 developing countries, the world is a little richer. The area seeing dramatic progress was East Asia, reports the World Bank. Back in the 1980s, this region had the worlds highest incidence of poverty. Nearly 80 percent of people lived on less than $1.25 each day; In 2008, the number dropped to 14 percent.
Singapore Gateway to Southeast Asia
Viewing the region from the now 20-year old seat of our Singapore office, what we see in Southeast Asia is a generally favorable combination of rising per-capita incomes and a relatively young population, a recipe with the potential to fuel the appetite for a wide variety of consumer goods. The challenges Southeast Asian markets face must not be easily dismissed, but overall I am optimistic about the regions long-term growth potential.
Eye on Myanmar
by Xin Jiang of Matthews Asia,
Since the U.S. declared that the Asia-Pacific region is America's new priority, its strategic moves in Southeast Asia have included the notable visit to Myanmar in December by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The visit was generally viewed as an endorsement of the reform processes that Myanmar has slowly begun to roll out over the past year or so. On my recent trip there, I was able to take a first-hand look at some of these developments.
International Real Estate Securities- Investment Review & Outlook - February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
International real estate securities added to their year-to-date gains in February, although the pace of the rally moderated. Most markets in Europe and Asia Pacific continued to benefit from the retreat of macro risk concerns. Europes difficult grapple with its fiscal crises has made for a negative macroeconomic backdrop, and we expect a moderate recession as a base-case scenario for the region. Given this environment, we seek to invest in companies that are best able to shield themselves from the most adverse effects of slowing economies and a general deleveraging.
Global Real Estate Securities Investment Review and Outlook February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Global real estate securities added to their year-to-date gains in February, although the pace of the rally moderated. Most markets in Europe and Asia Pacific continued to benefit from the retreat of macro risk concerns. U.S. REITs, which advanced in 2011 while other regions struggled, had a modest decline.
Emerging Markets Equity Product Commentary February 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
The renewed market optimism that surfaced towards the end of last year persisted in February as well, as emerging market equities again outperformed the developed markets. Though GDP growth forecasts for most emerging economies have been scaled lower for the current year and for 2013, it is widely expected that the risk of a further slowdown in economic activity is limited. Emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East continued to lead during the month, followed by Asia and Latin America. Egypt sustained its recovery during the month while Thailand, Russia, and Chile also outperformed.
Why Invest in Asia Bonds?
by Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia,
The development of Asias bond markets is one of the regions most profound economic changes of the last decade. This month Teresa Kong, CFA, writes about the diversification Asias bond markets can offer investors, and their three primary return drivers: credit, currency and interest rates.
Pacific Basin Market Overview - February 2012
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
We still have a broadly positive view of the outlook for the Asia Pacific equity markets. The European Central Banks efforts to provide long-term liquidity support have alleviated the default risk among the peripheral Euro-zone countries. It also appears that the Federal Reserves easy money policy is beginning to have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. Given this optimism, we believe that equities in the region will continue to rally, particularly in the oversold cyclical sectors such as Industrials, Technology and Consumer Durables.
Europe Needs a Good Crisis
by Michael Edesess,
When it comes to economies in general and financial crises in particular, it's remarkable how little we actually understand. While global financial actors struggle to restructure Greece's debt and to avoid contagion throughout Europe's periphery, we should recall the lessons of the Asian-Russian crisis 15 years ago. As the writings of Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Wolf remind us - and those events illustrate - crises are part of an evolutionary process, and the afflicted economies often emerge with surprising vigor.
Winning the War in Europe
Given my view on the global liquidity glut, it probably will come as no surprise that I remain bullish on U.S. investments, including equities, high yield bonds, bank loans and other risk assets, as well as art and collectibles. I believe the United States has entered a period of self-sustaining economic expansion, driven primarily by the aggressive monetary policy of the Fed, which is now being reinforced by the ECB. U.S. growth is necessary to reduce domestic unemployment and to provide support to the struggling economies in Europe and Asia.
Woody Brock on Healthcare Reform and Trade Relations with China
by Robert Huebscher,
Dr. Horace 'Woody' Brock is the founder Strategic Economic Decisions, an economic research and consulting service. In the second part of this two-part interview, he discusses his recently published book, American Gridlock, and focuses on how to fix two of our nation's most pressing problems: the crisis in health care - made worse by ObamaCare - and our trade relations with China.
International Equity - January 201
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices recorded strong gains in January on increased optimism that the global economy is not headed for a significant downturn this year. Markets across all regions, led by Asia, recovered during the month. Emerging markets, which had seen price declines during the second half of last year, outperformed the developed markets. Economic indicators from most regions, except Europe, have been relatively healthy and suggest expansion. EU leaders have now agreed to set tighter fiscal rules for member countries, including limits on fiscal deficits and aggregate public debt.
Digital Content in Asia
by J. Michael Oh of Matthews Asia,
Most companies I met with were still cautious over the years outlook, which was evidenced by unusually low inventory levels going into the Chinese New Year holiday shopping season. Smartphone sales, however, continue to be one bright spot for markets in Asia. While second-generation mobile handsets still dominate the regions markets, 3G phones and smartphone sales have been taking off in some economiesmost notably in Asias more developed countries, with Singapore showing the highest smartphone penetration rate in the world (at over 50%), followed by Hong Kong.
Hasenstab Sticks to His Guns
Michael Hasenstab, Portfolio Manager of the Templeton Global Bond Fund, doesnt scare so easily. As he reiterated recently, he actually sees times of market panic as opportunities to make investments where he sees long-term value. The key thoughts he shared: The challenge during periods of volatility is that, although investors can take a short-term hit, this volatility can create opportunity. Fears Europe will sink Asia appear overblown. China not likely to see a hard landing. The Eurozone drama continues to unfold.
A Stock for its Dividends - Revisited
by Jesper Madsen of Matthews Asia,
Since investors often turn to Asia looking for growth, they may overlook that the region offers a well-diversified universe of dividend-paying companies in terms of sectors and countries. This month Jesper Madsen revisits the notion that the Asia Pacific region should play an essential role for investors seeking yield and growth in income.
Where to Find Value in Emerging Asia
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Im updating my views on some of the emerging market countries in Asia. While Im upgrading Chinese equities from neutral to overweight, Im downgrading South Korean and Indian stocks from neutral to underweight. Starting with China and South Korea the two countries are both highly exposed to global growth, but China currently appears to be the better positioned and is likely to hold up much better. To be sure, South Korean equities are also cheap compared to other emerging markets. Im downgrading India in response to the countrys recent surge in valuations and persistently high inflation.
Barry Eichengreen on the End of the Dollar
by Dan Richards,
Barry Eichengreen is a professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley and a former senior advisor to the International Monetary Fund. In this interview, he discusses the future of the dollar as the reserve currency and the role of the IMF in the Eurozone crisis. This is the transcript of the interview.
International Real Estate Investment Commentary - Full Year 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We remain materially underweight Europe and Japan, and overweight Asia Pacific (ex-Japan). We have selective allocations to well-established companies in emerging markets whose business models are positioned to benefit from secular growth in consumer spending among emerging middle classes. We are overweight high-quality retail and offices in major city centers globally, where tenant demand has been more resilient and supply more constrained. Finally, we have allocations in property sectors and geographies where stronger cyclical recovery is emerging as a driver of outsized cash flow growth.
The Global Economic Outlook: Diverging Paths
by Thomas D. Higgins of Dreyfus,
The global economy can weather a mild eurozone recession, but is too fragile to absorb a severe financial shock such as a breakup of the euro. Higgins expects Central and Eastern Europe are likely to be most negatively affected by a eurozone recession, followed by the UK, the US and other advanced economies, given their respective trade dependencies. The least vulnerable regions would be Asia and Latin America. Long-term value in popular safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries and gold, preferring to focus on U.S. non-financial corporate credit as well as emerging market local currency debt.
Willful Optimism in the Face of Pessimism
by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia,
The U.S. has an unemployment problem, Europe is insolvent and Chinas banking system and property developers face the prospect of rising bad loans. The only thing that appears to be sustainable in investors minds is depression. Indeed, this has led to ongoing pessimismand perhaps too much of it. This month Robert Horrocks, PhD, takes a dissenting view on all the negativism as central banks in Europe, the U.S. and Asia appear to be shifting to more accommodative stances as inflationary pressures subside.
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Managers Discuss PIMCOs Cyclical Outlook
We expect emerging Asia growth below the market consensus due to its less aggressive policy responses compared to 2008-2009.
The Asia-Pacific region is less affected than others by eurozone turmoil but contagion is still a risk through direct trade and the regional production chains that characterize Asias export-oriented economies.
In this environment, we favor Australian government bonds for their high credit quality, low-beta currencies such as the Chinese yuan, corporate issuers that have delevered, covered bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
An Essential Client Conversation ?Will I be able to pay for my hip replacement at age 85??
by Dan Richards,
Advisors face a big challenge in planning for boomers. Your assumptions about how long they'll live and the nature and cost of their lifestyle as they age will dramatically impact your planning decisions. Conversations with boomers about those topics and about the implications of funding health care are difficult but important.
Chinese Debt Restructuring at Work?
by Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia,
How long a restructuring takes will also have a notable bearing on recovery value. Given the myriad of jurisdictions involved, the legal battles will likely take many months if not years to resolve. Given the time value of money, a penny recovered today is worth more than a penny recovered tomorrow. Hence, investors must weigh the cost in terms of time and legal costs against any future recoveries. Asia offers great opportunities, but one has to be mindful that some of the regions markets are still developing.
The Perils of 2012
The pragmatic commitment to growth that one sees in Asia and other emerging markets today stands in contrast to the Wests misguided policies, which, driven by ideology and vested interests, almost seem to reflect a commitment not to grow. As a result, global economic rebalancing is likely to accelerate, almost inevitably giving rise to political tensions.
Pacific Basin Market Overview December 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
For much of the fourth quarter of 2011, anxiety surrounding the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis has kept the Pacific Basin equity markets largely range bound, although most indices managed to trend higher from their October lows with the help of unexpectedly buoyant economic data from the U.S. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 0.66% and the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index gained 3.96%, resulting in declines of 17.31% and 17.98%, respectively, for the full year.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review 4th Quarter 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging Asia Pacifics economic expansion slowed considerably beginning in October 2011. In many economies, export growth along with investments grew at their slowest pace since the summer of 2009. Although the Purchasing Managers Index improved across key economies in November the index was still under the 50 mark, which generally means a contraction in manufacturing activity. Almost all the countries in emerging Asia Pacific posted slower third quarter expansion over the year-ago period.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economic Review
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies faced economic headwinds for the greater part of the fourth quarter of 2011 beginning in October. Major export-oriented economies such as Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore witnessed slowing export growth as consumer confidence in key markets such as the U.S. and the EU remained weak. Although China boosted exports from Developed Asia Pacific economies, overall exports to emerging economies across the world came under pressure. Furthermore, the resilience of the labor market was also tested by the slowing export and domestic markets.
A Balanced Asia Strategy for 2012: Income, Quality & Growth
by Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Partners,
When investors think of Asia, they usually think of growth investing. When I was making my three-week swings through Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney to visit clients the issue of dividends and income rarely came up at all. Since then, the region has matured - representing more than a third of world GDP and world stock market value. Asia is a big deal and is at the sweet spot of dividend yield, growth and quality. But the challenge of volatility still lurks.
On Tap for 2012: More Bond Market Transparency
by Matt Tucker of iShares Blog,
In 2011, 102 new fixed income funds launched across exchanges in Europe, Canada, Asia and the United States. How will the landscape continue to evolve in 2012? Matt Tucker is here to provide a few insights, including his expectation that new fund launches will help to make the bond market more transparent.
International Real Estate Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our macro outlook has turned more positive given the recent shift toward monetary easing in Asia Pacific and emerging markets, as well as U.S. economic data confirming slow but positive growth. However, Europe is likely to remain an overhang, as the region appears to be heading into recession, making a resolution to its debt crisis considerably more difficult.
Twenty Years of Investing in Asia
This month Asia Insight speaks with Paul Matthews and Mark Headley to get their thoughts on 20 years of investing in Asia. Why were you so convinced of Asias growth prospects at a time when few others were? Paul: As a young businessman trying to build an asset management firm focused on Asia ex Japan, the challenge for me was that Japan was 95% of the investment universe and also a majority of the market for asset gathering. While based in Hong Kong, I was given the task of looking for ways to build the business and so I was attracted to the markets that were open and growing.
Outlook 2012: Living In Interesting Times
Setting aside the debate over the appropriateness of various policy directives, this Outlook considers which countries or regions are vulnerable as we head into 2012. Not surprisingly we start off with Europe, then go through the U.S., industrialized Asia, and Latin America, finishing with a brief discussion of the political powder keg that is the Middle East.
Global Real Estate Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our macro outlook has turned more positive given the recent shift toward monetary easing in Asia Pacific and emerging markets, as well as U.S. economic data confirming slow but positive growth. However, Europe is likely to remain an overhang, as the region appears to be heading into recession, making a resolution to its debt crisis considerably more difficult.
European Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our global macro view has turned more positive given the recent shift toward monetary easing in Asia Pacific and emerging markets, as well as U.S. economic data confirming slow but positive growth. However, we expect Europe to struggle in the intermediate term as austerity measures introduced by a variety of governments continue to hinder growth.
Asia: Diverging Outlooks Going Into 2012
by James A. Pressler of Northern Trust,
With most of the industrialized world focusing on all things European, we thought it might be worthwhile to see just what was happening on the other side of the Ural Mountains. Asia has not become embroiled in the debt problems sweeping through the likes of Greece and Italy, and its exposure to the euro is contained. However, what happens in Europe will inevitably drift into Asia, so a look at its major economies might provide insight into what awaits the region in 2012. In particular, we are focusing on the two most populous countries in the world China and India.
Another Asian Wake-Up Call
For the second time in three years, global economic recovery is at risk, with the crisis in 2008, triggered by subprime crisis made in America, now followed by Europe's sovereign-debt crisis. The alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear across Asia an export-led region that cannot afford to ignore repeated shocks to its two largest sources of external demand.
Big Shift in Gold Demand
In 1970, according to the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report, half of the worlds gold was purchased in two regionsNorth America and Europe. Ten years later, that figure jumped all the way to 68 percent during a period of high inflation, a weak economy and spiking gold prices. At the same time, China and India (broadly represented in the chart as East Asia and Indian Sub continent) saw their combined share of gold demand diminish from 35 percent to 15 percent.
Michael Aronstein on Today's Key Macro Trends
by Robert Huebscher,
Michael Aronstein is the president and chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management. Since its inception in 2008, his fund has returned 31% while the S&P has been down 15%. I spoke with him about the key macroeconomic and strategic issues facing investors today.
Capital Flows: Asias Quiet Revolution
by Gerald Hwang of Matthews Asia,
As markets evolve, so do regulations. The reflexive rebuke of capital controls once voiced by Western regulators has given way to a more flexible approach in times of extreme volatility. Asias regulators have observed the efficacy of volatility-dampening measures, and thus far, appear to have avoided the worst excesses. As fears continue over diminishing U.S. dollar power, Asias bonds remain attractive diversifiers for their yields and good credit ratings. However, one should never forget the volatile history of currencies in Asia.
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Committee Discusses Cyclical Outlook for Globe and Region
China will likely focus more on rebalancing of the investment-focused domestic economy this time, rather than on reflating of the economy to engineer higher growth as it has done in 2008 to 2009.
Japans fiscal policy will need to be expansionary to facilitate reconstruction efforts.
We believe Australian government bonds have the potential to outperform U.S. Treasuries on a local currency basis, particularly in a left-tail global economic scenario.
Asia Pacific Real Estate Securities
Asia Pacific real estate securities declined sharply in the third quarter, a negative and volatile period for stocks broadly. Markets were roiled by reduced global growth expectations and intensified European sovereign debt concerns. Economic growth throughout most of Asia Pacific remains relatively strong, driven in large part by demand from China. The regions property markets have encountered policy headwinds, but the outlook for slower global growth has eased inflationary concerns.
European Real Estate
European real estate securities fell sharply in the risk-averse environment that defined the third quarter. The region underperformed North America and Asia Pacific, which also had double-digit declines amid slowing global growth and concerns regarding Europes unresolved sovereign debt problem. We believe the European financial system is in need of substantial equity recapitalization. Until banks are able to achieve this, corporate financing in Europe, combined with austerity measures introduced by a variety of governments, is likely to remain restrictive.
Global Infrastructure
Global infrastructure stocks are in a position to perform well in the current economic environment as historically, their cash flows have been relatively resilient in the face of slowing economic growth. On a regional basis, we remain overweight the U.S. and underweight Europe, given the high degree of uncertainty regarding a solution to sovereign debt issues and the long-term impact of austerity on the regions growth outlook. Our Asia Pacific outlook is mixed: our investments in Japan remain defensive, and we are cautious on Australia, given the potential impact of a slowdown in China.
Pacific Basin Market Overview September 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Europes inability to find a solution for its current fiscal problems and the weakening macroeconomic outlook sent equity markets into a downward spiral during the July-September quarter. In Asia, concerns about the risk of a hard landing in China resurfaced as well. All country and regional indices declined, with the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan and the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index declining 16.35% and 21.28%, respectively, for the quarter. In the short term, the rush to raise cash could lead to further declines in markets
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