This is one of the more important pieces I’m sharing with you. It’s a candid look at where we are in the economic cycle and what that likely means for the global markets.
When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, forward return expectations were a high 18.91% (see chart below: green line, left-hand side). Equally important was that risk of loss was a low -4.29% (red line, left-hand side). The prior bear market reached its end, yet few knew it. Scream as one might, clients weren’t buying.
I presented at a recent advisor conference alongside a famous economist. He told a story about an investment manager who told him, “You know… it is easy to pick out the investment amateur in any room.” He said, “He’s the person who says, ‘it’s different this time’.”
I enjoy reading 720 Global’s research blog. Quick, crisp and to the point. The message in their most recent piece is about human behavioral tendencies and ego. Ultimately, it’s about how to weave behavior and ego into our investment thinking.
“As I was waiting to be introduced, I got the latest headline from the North Korean government saying ‘a super preemptive strike will reduce the United States to ashes.’ So we have that to look forward to.” Ian Bremmer said as he began his presentation yesterday afternoon at the iShares Multi-Asset Summit in New York City."
Many years ago I created an economic investment dashboard of sorts to help me do my best to keep my head screwed on straight. If you subscribe to a handful of research services, you know what I mean. For every 10 bulls, there are 10 bears.
So should we sing or weep? Warren Buffett has a brilliant way of making the complicated simple. Let’s think about valuations like we think about the price of hamburgers and see if we are going to get more or less for our money. Today, I share with you my favorite valuation charts and story them in a way I hope your clients might better understand.
I’m going to try to tie two related themes together today. The first, and I have to admit I was surprised when I saw the research, is the incredible shrinking universe of stocks. Think corporate share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and fewer companies going public. The second is the popularity of index investment products...
We touched down late last night in Salt Lake City. Susan, the boys, Brianna and me along with a dozen bags. It’s a long-standing family tradition and let’s just say everyone is really excited. A snowstorm just ended and my Snowbird app says 11” of fresh new snow.
One of the realities we will face is recession. The good news is that we are in the eighth year of a growth phase (the last recession was in 2009) and as you’ll see in my favorite indicator charts below, there are no current signs of recession.