February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.
What can investors expect this year? Positive (but unsteady) economic growth, a powerful boost in earnings and continued success for information technology stocks, says Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
As the end of 2020 draws near, many of us are anxious to put this tumultuous year behind us, choosing to look ahead to 2021 in hopes that happier, healthier, and more prosperous times will be had by all.
With apps designed for entertainment, travel, business, fitness, productivity, and more, the slogan ‘there’s an app for that’ sure seems to be true. But just as our daily lives are engrained in technology, the equity market’s performance has been reliant upon technology too.
The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 are now all in positive territory for the year.
Whether you’re celebrating in-person or virtually, we’re wishing you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving! Giving thanks may seem difficult to do in a year that’s resulted in the loss of so many lives, jobs, and businesses, but we believe this holiday is the perfect time to reflect on all we are grateful for.
With a likely split-Congress outcome lowering the chances of substantial policy shifts, investors are refocusing on supportive fundamentals and the recovering economy. Raymond James CIO Larry Adam offers his perspective.
Your voice, your vote! With only four days remaining until Election Day, more than 84 million voters have already voiced their choice—over 61% of the total turnout of the 2016 election.
The S&P 500 posted its worst daily decline since late September but didn’t entirely erode October gains.
It’s the final countdown! Between the flared debate tensions and President Trump testing positive for COVID-19 on the campaign trail, the 2020 presidential election has arguably been one of the most contested and unique battles for the presidency in history.
Key Takeaways
The initial efforts by policy makers positioned the economy for a robust rebound off the depressed levels, but there are still many moving pieces in order for the economy to return to pre-COVID levels.
The fastest, most economically destructive recession is now in investors’ rearview mirrors. CIO Larry Adam shares his perspective on the unfolding recovery.
Today is National Family Health and Fitness Day! The COVID-19 outbreak undoubtedly brought our health and the health of our loved ones to the forefront of our minds, and with many states closing fitness centers in the initial stages of the lockdowns, the virus certainly challenged our traditional methods for exercise too.
The start of this year was calm with the economic expansion reaching a record duration, unemployment at record lows, and earnings growth set to reach all-time highs. However, a ‘Black Swan’ event—COVID-19—erupted, driving market and economic volatility to unprecedented levels.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
While a panoramic view of broader economic and market developments will always be a crucial shot when constructing our outlook, sometimes it is important for us to bring certain sectors into focus.
This upcoming Wednesday is National Aviation Day, a holiday established by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in order to honor the birthday of Orville Wright—inventor of the first airplane. While it’s hard to believe we’ve had the ability to fly for more than 115 years, it is even harder to comprehend the havoc that the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked on the airline industry.
The pandemic has undoubtedly brought about a number of challenges for investors, but constructing a well-founded economic outlook and identifying opportunities in the midst of this unprecedented time are “always on my mind.” Until we can announce that COVID-19 ‘has left the building,’ our team will strive to do exactly that.
The U.S. economy contracted 9.5% through the second quarter, the worst single-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) since the Commerce Department started tracking it in 1947. It was expected the report would show a dip, but it’s important to recognize what that dip represents.
Between the biggest week of earnings, the Fed meeting, and key economic data, there were plenty of headlines ‘hot off the press’ for the financial markets to handle this week, and as we look ahead, some of these same developments, as well as a few others still have the potential to ‘turn up the heat’ on market volatility.
We distance ourselves from the chaos and panic of the crowd during pullbacks and from the ‘amusement’ and euphoria of rebounds and instead focus on providing a steady, reliable outlook that remains focused on risks on the horizon.
As states ease their COVID-19 lockdown measures, rising case numbers have put pressure on equity markets.
Tomorrow is the summer solstice, the longest day of the year and the official start to summer! For those who are still fortunate enough to travel with friends and family this year, the trip may look a little different than usual given ongoing restrictions and social distancing guidelines still in effect.
This week marked the 50th trading day since its March 23 low, with the S&P 500 rallying ~40% —the best 50 day rally since 1932. While the index has recovered ~85% of its virus-induced losses, there is still a distance to go, and if you are like me, the further the race goes, the more challenging it gets and the slower I advance.
Our ears are ringing as the iconic bell on the New York Stock Exchange is dinging – in person – once again! This week, Governor Andrew Cuomo had the honor of reopening the trading floor for the first time in two months, but of course, there were a few new rules in place.
Formula 1 celebrated the 70th anniversary of its first World Championship this week! More than four million spectators attended last year, many of whom were looking forward to commemorating the start of the landmark season this past March. Unfortunately, like many other events, COVID-19 forced Formula 1 to postpone its events for the foreseeable future.
In a world filled with challenges there is no truer phrase than “Save one life, you’re a hero. Save a hundred lives, you’re a nurse.” And if we need any more reasons to celebrate and honor our nurses, this past Wednesday was National Nurses Day and next Tuesday will be 200 years since the birth of Florence Nightingale—the originator of modern nursing.
We rely upon the ‘history’ of the market and the ‘science’ of evaluating economic indicators, but this period of uncertainty has pushed us to ‘think outside the box,’ and add an element of creativity to our investment views.
Additional relief packages are expected to take shape in coming weeks, which may provide additional support for the markets and economy.
While we still hope “April showers bring May flowers,” more so we are wishing that “April distance will bring May existence”—so continue social distancing!
The phrase “a picture paints a thousand words” seems truer than ever as images of lockdowns flood our newsfeeds. From the eerie emptiness of Time Square to closed retailers, there is concrete evidence that all are doing their part to combat the outbreak.
CIO Larry Adam discusses the COVID-19 outbreak and emphasizes that investors should exercise patience, not panic.
The US economy will likely struggle temporarily, but the combination of aggressive monetary policy and substantial fiscal stimulus should deter the worst case scenarios from occurring. These efforts will serve as a ‘bridge’ to a place not too far in the future (hopefully June) where the virus is contained, a therapeutic response is developed and the economy returns to normality.
The economic and financial market carnage of the coronavirus continued in yet another unbearable week for investors. The S&P 500 suffered its worst daily decline since October 1987 on Monday, and has fallen ~30% from its February 19 high—the fastest decline and entrance into bear market territory in the history of the US equity market.
The S&P 500 triggered the week’s second trading halt by falling more than 7% during Thursday’s market hours.
Volatility will persist until we get more clarity around the pace of contagion and the potential impact on the US economy – which could take time. Patience, not panic, is essential in order to make well-informed decisions.
Markets have been skittish following the news of a coronavirus case in California with no clear point of origin.
While red may be the color of the day, it’s a color investors have not seen from most asset classes over the last twelve months. For example, the S&P 500 rose ~26% and investment-grade bonds gained ~14%. However, just as in a healthy relationship, we cannot take this excellent performance for granted and become complacent about the future returns we expect to come our way.
President Trump delivered his third State of the Union address Tuesday night. In accordance with the US Constitution, the president has the responsibility to update Congress on measures deemed “necessary and expedient.” The event is not without tradition, but prior presidents have not hesitated to deliver their message in their own unique way.
Domestic stocks had a strong start to the year but soon ran into headwinds related to geopolitical risks in Iran and the Wuhan coronavirus.
Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
