Last week’s data reaffirmed that inflation pressures remain the defining narrative across the economic landscape.

The S&P 500 fell every day this week, its longest losing streak since last August. Ultimately, the index closed the week down 2.0%, marking its first decline in three weeks.

The yield on the 10-year note finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% while the 2-year note ended at 4.07%.

Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in four months as gas prices eased but remains historically low amid ongoing inflation concerns. The final June reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 49.5 marking a 10.5% (4.7 points) increase from April and beating the expected reading of 48.9.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to increase in May. The composite index came in at 8 this month, down slightly from 10 in April but still indicating continued expansion.

With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.10 in May from +0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three categories made negative contributions.

New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.

The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.09%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.91%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP third estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1, exceeding the 1.6% forecast and marking a sharp acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.

In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.

Margin debt rose for a second straight month in May, reaching a new record high of $1.42 trillion. This marked an 8.5% increase from April and a 53.7% rise compared to the previous year.

New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.

Bitcoin's struggles returned after a one week reprieve, falling back below $65,000. BTC is currently down approximately 28% year-to-date and sits about 50% below its October 2025 record high.

Gas prices fell for a sixth straight week, reaching their lowest level in three months. As of June 22nd, weekly prices were down 14 cents for regular and down 15 cents for premium gasoline.

Fifth district manufacturing activity was flat in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell nine points points to 4, marking the third consecutive positive reading. This month's reading was below the forecast of 8.

Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 22, 2026.

As the summer economic landscape takes shape, investors are navigating shifting monetary policy, stubborn inflation pressures, and unexpected market momentum. This week’s snapshot breaks down the most critical updates and data releases from the past week to give you a clear view of where the economy is heading.

The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity rebounded in June, with the index rising 10.7 points to 10.3. The latest reading marks the fifth positive reading in the past six months and was better than the forecast of 9.8.

Home values fell for the first time in nine months in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, remaining at their lowest level in over five years.

Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.

According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the fourth straight month in May. Headline sales rose 0.9%, almost double the projected 0.5% growth and marking an acceleration from April's 0.4% rise.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.

Building permits inched down 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million in May. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.420 million.

Housing starts sank 15.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, the lowest level in six years. The latest reading was significantly lower than the projected 1.430 million.

Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.

Industrial production rose less than expected in May, increasing 0.1% after a 0.9% jump in April. This was lower than the expected 0.3% growth and marks a 1.7% increase compared to one year ago.

Manufacturing activity rose modestly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions remained positive but dropped 13.9 points to 5.7, falling short of the 13.2 forecast.

The U.S. economy faced intensifying headwinds in May as both consumer and wholesale inflation metrics surged to multi-year highs.

May's Producer Price Index (PPI) data delivered another blow to inflation watchers, as wholesale price growth came in hotter than expected.

The May release of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) places the year-over-year inflation rate at 4.25%, its highest level in over three years. This keeps inflation above the post-WWII average of 3.72% for a second straight month and marks the third consecutive month that the current rate is above the 10-year moving average, which currently sits at 3.27%.

This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,604, down 6.1% from over 50 years ago.

Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

Inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May, hitting its highest level in over three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was consistent with the forecast, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the June 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates.

Existing home sales reached their highest level of the year in May, rising 3.2% after a 0.7% increase in April. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units, surpassing the projected 4.07 million.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.6 points to 95.3, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. The index remains below its historical average for a third straight month.

The U.S. trade deficit shrunk just over 1% in April to $55.88B after expanding nearly 3% the previous month. The latest reading barely missed the forecast of -$56.20B.

May's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.1% of civilian employment in May, the lowest level in ten months.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

The U.S. labor market took center stage last week as three major labor market indicators outperformed forecasts. Robust payroll additions in both the public and private sectors, paired with a massive surge in job openings, point to a workforce on solid footing.

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

The latest employment report showed that 172,000 jobs were added in May, down slightly from April's 179,000 gain. This figure was more than double the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, as expected.