The Producer Price Index (PPI) was essentially flat month-over-month in July, at its lowest level in four months.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the August 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates.

Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through August 10, 2026.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In July, total nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

The latest employment report showed that 23,000 jobs were shed in July, compared to June's 20,000 gain. This figure was significantly lower than the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

Bitcoin's closing price was roughly flat this week, up around 0.3%. BTC is currently down approximately 27% year-to-date and sits about 49% below its October 2025 record high.

The yield on the 10-year note finished July 31, 2026 at 4.75% while the 2-year note ended at 4.28%.

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since March, driven by easing gas prices. The final July reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 55.2. This marks an 11.5% (5.7 points) increase from June and beat the preliminary reading of 54.4.

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.3% and core CPI at 2.6%.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.13% in June and was up 3.81% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.24% month-over-month and up 0.14% year-over-year.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.3% year-over-year in June. This marks a slight decrease from May's 3.4% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.1%.

In the week ending July 25th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 197,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 201,000.

U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annual rate in Q2, falling below the 2.1% forecast, but marking an acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.

The Federal Reserve concluded its fifth meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Gasoline prices jumped for a third straight week, reaching their highest level in almost two months.

Fifth district manufacturing activity was mostly flat in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index inched up one point to 5, marking the fourth consecutive positive reading.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in July, falling 1.4 points to 90.8. The index was below the forecast of 92.4.

Home prices fell for a third straight month in May according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown continues. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index was essentially flat month-over-month and was up 1.1% year-over-year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) rose more than expected in May, reaching a new record high.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for July. The general business activity index rose 1.3 points to 1.3, indicating accelerated growth of manufacturing activity and improved business conditions perceptions.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 0.3% in June to $334.77B, less than the projected 1.6% monthly growth.

New home sales unexpectedly rose in June while the median price fell to its lowest level in almost a year.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity remained steady in June. The composite index came in at 9 this month, down slightly from 11 in June but still indicating continued expansion.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June from -0.19 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and two categories made negative contributions.

Margin debt rose for a third straight month in June, reaching a new record high of $1.53 trillion. This marked a 7.9% increase from May and a 51.5% rise compared to the previous year.

A handful of key economic data points dropped last week, painting a picture of an economy that is successfully downshifting from its recent inflation peaks even as consumers keep their footing.

Home values fell for a second straight month in June, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, hitting their lowest level in over five years.

Industrial production rose less than expected in June, increasing 0.1% after May's 0.1% growth. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth and marks a 1.1% increase compared to one year ago.

Building permits fell 3.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.367 million. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.400 million.

Housing starts jumped 19.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, beating forecasts driven by a massive surge in multi-family units.

Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.

Nominal retail sales were up 0.22% month-over-month and up 6.72% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.15% year-over-year.

Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity expanded significantly in July, with the index jumping 31.1 points to 41.4. This marks the highest level for the index since November 2021 and was more than triple the forecast of 12.7.

U.S. headline retail sales increased for a fifth straight month, rising 0.2% to $768.6B in June, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.2%.

Manufacturing activity grew significantly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing July survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions remained in positive territory for a fourth straight month, jumping 9.9 points to 15.6 and coming in above the 9.3 forecast.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4, reaching its highest level since February. However, the index remains below its historical average for a fourth straight month.

The June release of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) places the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.53%. This pushes inflation back below the post-WWII average of 3.72% for the first time since March. Meanwhile, this marks the fourth consecutive month that the current rate is above the 10-year moving average, which currently sits at 3.29%.

This series has been updated to include the June release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,560, down 5.7% from over 50 years ago.

Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in June.

June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a its all-time high in May 2026. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

Following the Q1 GDP third estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 218.1%. This marks the fourth-highest reading in history.