Taking the Long View: Where Will the Economy and Markets Be in 2028?

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When we put together economic and market outlooks, we typically focus on the near term—the next month, the next quarter, or the next year. As the great philosopher Yogi Berra noted, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” So, we tend to stay close to the present, where we know more and can at least set some reasonable expectations.

Strangely enough, although our predictive abilities tend to fade over the medium term (as short-term events change outcomes), longer-term trends are more predictable. Given that, as we move into the five-year or so range, we can make some fairly educated guesses about what will happen. With that in mind, let's look past the next year into where the economy and markets could be around 2028.

A Growing Economy

Economically, we should be growing. We can reasonably expect a recession sometime in the next year or two. But after that? Growth will resume—as it always does.

Job growth should be strong over that time as a whole, keeping the labor market tight and driving more investment by businesses. On top of the demographic trends, businesses will keep moving production back to the U.S., driven by affordable natural gas, the rule of law, and proximity to a major consumer market. Between job growth, political stability relative to the rest of the world, and growing de-globalization, the U.S. will be a star in the global economy.

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