We closed yesterday’s post on whether markets are efficient with the conclusion that it could be possible to beat the market. But, to do so, we would need either better information or to view things differently—specifically referencing time horizons as one way to do that. Let’s start with a couple of areas where better information is a real possibility. Then, we’ll take a deeper look at the second idea, which is both more subtle and more interesting.
Growing your business through practice acquisition is a good goal, but it's a long-term strategy that can take years to accomplish. How can you meet your growth objectives in the meantime? By focusing on these client-facing activities that are proven revenue drivers.
Oil has been in the news quite a bit recently. Prices have risen to multiyear highs, and the recent decision by the U.S. to reimpose sanctions on Iran has rattled markets even further. We know that oil prices are a key risk indicator for the economy, but is it time to start worrying? Plus, what do higher oil prices mean—if anything—for the financial markets?
As we start moving further into May, I think it’s a good time to take a look back at April’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.
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As we move away from the financial crisis and as policies normalize, it is a good time to take a look at what the removal of those policies might mean. After all, many of the actions taken in the aftermath of the crisis were explicitly designed to do certain things. If those actions were successful, then presumably their reversal would have the opposite effect.
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, recaps the market and economic news for April. It was a good month, as both U.S. and developed markets were up. This news was encouraging, indicating that the economy seems to be bouncing back after two down months. In fact, the fundamentals are quite strong, with company earnings surprising to the upside to a degree we have never seen before. Plus, sales beat expectations, which is a positive reflection of the markets and the economy. But will these trends continue? Stay tuned to find out. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Yesterday, we had another breakdown in the stock market. Major indices dropped for the third day out of four, and they were down this morning. Once again, we are getting close to the long-term trend line, the 200-day moving average, which is where I personally start to pay attention.
Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for April? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
The first quarter of 2018 saw the end of the bull market. Not in stocks necessarily, as the upward trend remains intact, but certainly of the bull market in confidence. January was a strong month, but then the world changed. Markets dropped in early February, only to bounce and then drop again in March. Let’s review why things changed in Q1, plus what we might expect in Q2.