Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future. Although valuations are now high—a noted risk factor in past bear markets—markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years, which doesn’t give us much to go on timing-wise.
Will the stock market rally continue? That’s a big question right now, and the answer will depend on two things...
As Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan puts it, markets in February basically rocked. Here in the U.S., all three major indices rose substantially, and markets around the world also did quite well. Why is this happening? The economic news is good, with U.S. consumers and businesses feeling optimistic. What’s more, for the first time since the crisis, we’re seeing a synchronized global upturn, with most areas and regions starting to expand. Will the recovery continue (and possibly accelerate)? The prospects are encouraging. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
2016 was the year that the U.S. economy continued to normalize despite considerable turmoil, both political and economic. Now, as we look ahead to the new year under a newly elected president, what can we expect from the economy and market?
The speech presents a chance for the president to clearly define what he wants Congress to accomplish.
With the Dow cracking 21,000 this morning, just over a month after breaking 20,000—and with other indices setting records as well—there are a few questions we need to ask.
Every so often, I like to look back. Not too often, because life is lived moving forward. Occasionally, though, we can learn a lot about where we are going from considering where we've been
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, discusses the markets and economy for January. Last month was a great month for stock markets, and from a financial market perspective, the world is in good shape. In fact, we’re seeing the first synchronized global expansion since the financial crisis. What’s the problem? Even as growth continues to do well, it’s not quite keeping pace with expectations. Is this a healthy normalization? What will be the economic effect of the current political conflict in Washington? Stay tuned to find out. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Since the election, the market has been driven up largely by a combination of economic improvements and a vast increase in hope. Although the fundamentals continue to improve, there are signs that may be slowing down. Even without the slowing, the gap between expectations and reality is large. A lot has to happen to close that gap and fulfill investors’ hopes.