Global Business Mobility, defined as GDP-weighted Google geolocation data of workplace less residential mobility for the 24 largest economies in the world, representing over two-thirds of global GDP, remains in decline despite a recent uptick.
At this stage we might have to discard the V-shape recovery hypothesis and perhaps look to a Nike swoosh or W-shaped recovery for both the US and the rest of the world.
Those of you who have been following us since 2010 will identify us a perma-bulls. Even in the depths of the ECRI 2012 /Hussman recession calls we were firmly bullish on the US economy and stock market – quite contrary to the popular consensus at the time.
We keep getting good news about employment and the labor market. But we rarely see the less optimistic numbers.