It is interesting to see the recent re-appearance of articles relating to flashing warning signals of recession.
It is true that some genuinely troubling signals are starting to make themselves known. Let’s look at some of them.
Heavy Duty Truck sales, a reliable long-leading indicator for US recession, has recently tanked:
Growth in Total Freight Shipments and Revenues has been negative since early 2015::
The Inventory-to-Sales ratio was one of the first trouble spots and has persisted for quite some time now:
A composite of 35 diversified spreads from the Credit Markets is also providing a warning:
Lending standards at financial institutions are tightening up:
The annual growth in corporate profits has been negative for six quarters now, although seems to be recovering:
Quarterly % change in Federal Tax Receipts are looking vulnerable:
A composite of various housing market indicators is left wanting, but showing signs of recovery: