The past isn’t a perfect predictor of market behavior, but it has proven to be a useful guide.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine overturned a lot of assumptions about the near-term direction of the global economy.
We're changing all our sector calls to "neutral" until there's more clarity on how the Russia-Ukraine war will affect the global economy.
The war between Russia and Ukraine—and subsequent economic and financial ripple effects—has exacerbated stress in global markets and ushered in an acute risk-off environment.
After living through more than two years of COVID-19, its variants, and the attendant supply-chain disruptions and inflation concerns, one thing is clear: Uncertainty is the only certainty.
Markets have already reacted to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in a textbook manner akin to prior similar events that we have outlined in prior articles on January 31 and February 22.
Preferred securities are a type of investment that generally offers higher yields than traditional fixed income securities, such as U.S. Treasury securities or investment-grade corporate bonds.
In an apparent desire to create a weakened border state unable to join NATO, Russia supported separatists in eastern Ukraine by recognizing the independence of two regions: Donetsk and Luhansk. In support, Russia ordered “peacekeeping” troops to the areas, prompting sanctions by world powers.
U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Thursday amid fear of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine and ongoing concern about inflation.
Most investors are probably less diversified than they think they are.
In recent weeks, it has felt like the U.S. stock market slips a gear every so often, dropping sharply as investors search for traction in uncertain terrain.
After “whisper” estimates for the December jobs report, out last Friday, had plunged well into negative territory, payrolls instead jumped by 467k—well above the official consensus of only 125k, and close to twice the highest Bloomberg estimate.
U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Thursday as global interest rates rose and certain sectors posted weak earnings.
The Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to start raising short-term interest rates soon.
Markets appear to be reacting to military developments in Ukraine.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
Despite the strong year for stocks in 2021, markets have confidently priced in some negative trends gathering more momentum in 2022 which may help markets, should trends reverse.
The semiconductor shortage and its impact on everything from autos to smartphone production has been much in the news. The shortage has been a boon for semiconductor stock prices. But it likely will resolve itself in the coming months—or years, depending on whom you talk to—raising the specter of a bust.
Some of the market’s recent pressures are showing signs of easing.
The FOMC upped the pace of tapering—now expected to conclude by March—with three rate hikes expected in 2022 per its “dot plot.”
Investor sentiment is one key to shorter-term market swings; with euphoria preceding September’s and late-November’s pullbacks; but better conditions in place … for now.
Given all the municipal bonds to choose from, how do you decide which ones should make up the core of your portfolio? With $3.9 trillion of muni debt outstanding1 spread among tens of thousands of issuers, the choice may seem daunting, but we’ll help you break it down.
Ever since the Federal Reserve started hinting it was planning to end its ultra-loose monetary policy, bond yields have been falling. That it happened in a booming economy with the highest inflation readings in nearly 40 years has taken a lot of investors and analysts by surprise.
Inflation continues to be a concern these days, and many investors are looking for investments that can keep pace with, or hopefully beat, the rate of inflation. As a result, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, have become a popular investment option.
As we wrote about in our 2022 Global Outlook, COVID-19 is becoming endemic rather than pandemic. We anticipate a winter wave of COVID, potentially with new variants like omicron.
The S&P 500 index is up more than 20% so far this year, but more than 90% of its member stocks have had “correction” level drawdowns—more than 10% from a peak—at some point this year. In short, while overall stock market performance has been strong, there has been a lot of churn beneath the surface.
Bear with us as (no pun intended) you read this longer-than-usual outlook!
U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Friday amid spiking fears about a new COVID variant, named Omicron, emanating from South Africa, where it’s spreading quickly. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite indices closed down more than 2%, while the Russell 2000 fell nearly 4%.
A high tide of growth, aided by a sea change in fiscal policy, is likely to help float the global economy safely over the rocks of risks in 2022, despite waves of worries emanating from COVID, inflation, shortages, and rate hikes.
Current low yields and tight spreads in the municipal bond market have made it difficult for investors to find opportunities to earn attractive interest income on their investments. We expect that to change in 2022.
Rarely is there any sector that has everything going for or against it—and that is true today of the Information Technology sector.
You’ve researched the nuts and bolts of cryptocurrencies and considered whether you should invest in them. Now you want to participate in the cryptocurrencies market. How do you do it?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been growing in popularity, but if you’re considering investing in them, there are some key things you should know first.
So what is cryptocurrency? Should you invest in it? How can you invest in it? We’ll cover all three topics in this and related articles. For now, here are answers to some of the most common questions about the basics of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
With less than two months left in what has been an extraordinary (and mystifying) year on multiple fronts, stocks have maintained a largely uninterrupted trek higher (at the index level) in the face of myriad headwinds...
Liz Ann Sonders shares her perspective on the U.S. stock market and economy in this monthly Market Snapshot video.
After a year of supply shortages, the global economy may be closer to the end of the supply chain problems than the beginning.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the start of balance sheet tapering at a pace of $15 billion per month ($10 billion of Treasuries and $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities). They made no change to the fed funds rate, which remains near the zero bound.
Earnings season has been stellar so far, although the growth rate is well off its prior quarter peak, with profit margins in focus looking ahead.
Signs are growing that inflation may be more tenacious than originally expected. We don’t believe a return to 1970s-style inflation is likely, but there is a worrisome scenario in which persistently sharp increases in prices could be a factor to reckon with—and if history is any guide, they could have an impact on sector performance.
Services make up more of the economy, jobs, and the stock market. The time has come to focus on services data to get a sense of the overall economic picture.
The speculative exuberance around special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) seems to be over, but investors still have questions about them.
The age of abundance has given way to an age of scarcity, while the pro-cyclical version of inflation may have given way to the counter-cyclical version.
Supply chains typically aren’t something the average person needs to think about too much. When they’re working, these high-tech, globalized networks of parts suppliers, assemblers, shippers, and distributors allow companies to make and move goods around the world so quickly and cheaply that it’s tempting to take them for granted.
September closed with a whimper (from folks hoping the seven-month stretch of positive performance months for the S&P 500 would make it to eight). The month also held true to the history of September being the worst month for performance on average since the index’s inception in 1928.
Looking ahead, new sources of inflation may continue to arise. Unless the mounting pressures push inflation to significantly higher levels that would provoke central banks into aggressive tightening, the impact on global stock markets may be a positive.
