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ECB's Attitude to Portugal Raises Questions about Bond-Purchase Programme
by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein,
Political upheaval in Portugal has thrown the spotlight on the European Central Banks (ECBs) bond-purchase programme, known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs). Many are asking whether the ECB is ready to support the market if yields rise further. And if not, why not?
Triangulating a Truer Course Through Emerging Markets
Where can you find a car market which will double in size in the next five years? Brazil and Russia might be obvious places to look, but would you have expected Chile, Colombia, Ukraine and Vietnam? Picking the next big themes in emerging consumer markets is even harder than in the well-researched developed world. To get a better handle, we think, requires a triangular approach.
Opportunity Knocks for Mortgage Investors
by Matthew Bass of AllianceBernstein,
We dont usually think of rising rates as being good for homeowners. That may be because were accustomed to thinking of financing (and refinancing) as the key to reviving sagging housing markets. And its true that financing availability remains tight, at least by historical standards, and isnt going to get looser with rising rates.
Rising Rates: Time to Position, Not Panic
by Douglas Peebles of AllianceBernstein,
It finally happened. After endless discussion about the potential for rates to rise, they finally didin a big way. During May and June, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared by nearly one percent, and markets reeled. Instead of panicking, investors should make sure their portfolios are positioned effectively.
For Abenomics, the Hard Part Is Still to Come
by Guy Bruten of AllianceBernstein,
Prime Minister Shinzo Abes Abenomics program, designed to revive Japans economy, was a big success in its first five months, easily surpassing low expectations. But its drifted off course since it began, and the going is sure to get tougher from here. Still, its too early to write off this policy experiment.
Quality Can Deliver in Times of Rising Rates
As talk of an early Fed tapering triggered a sell-off in bonds, safe-haven equities have also suffered. Can low-volatility strategies survive rising rates and an unraveling of the safety trade, in which investors rushed headlong into safe assets no matter the cost? We say, yesbut youll need an active approach to navigate the near-term pitfalls.
Municipals: A Glimpse of What's to Come?
by Guy Davidson of AllianceBernstein,
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke reiterated today that a healthier economy would prompt the Fed to end its unprecedented bond-buying program, which has kept yields artificially low. Speculation on this question over the last several weeks has caused a sharp bond sell-off and rising yields. But we dont see this as the start of a rout for most municipal bonds.
Managing Equity Risk: Some Rules for the Road
by Kurt Feuerman of AllianceBernstein,
Under the surface of Mays strong equity returns were major shifts in sector leadership, notably a rotation from defensive to traditional cyclical sectors. Given the markets tendency to change gears, it helps to be flexible in managing portfolio risk. In fact, it should be a daily exercise.
Cyclical Stocks Appeal After Defensive-Led Rally
by Vadim Zlotnikov of AllianceBernstein,
This years equity market rally was initially led by defensive stocks, as macroeconomic concerns persisted despite improved risk appetite. With valuations in these sectors looking stretched and cyclically oriented stocks starting to rebound in May, is a bigger shift starting to unfold?
Detroit Municipal Bonds: Who'll Share the Pain?
It could be several weeks or a few months. But before long, the city of Detroit is likely to default on some of its outstanding bonds and possibly file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. It would be a historic bankruptcy and is sure to create uncertainty in the municipal bond market. Some types of debt will fare better than others in the final restructuring.
DC Solutions: Adding Global Bonds to Target-Date Funds
Within US defined contribution (DC) target-date funds (TDFs), whether were considering customized TDFs for larger plans or packaged solutions for smaller plans, our research shows that having a bond allocation that is not US-centric can lead to better outcomes and enhance the effectiveness of the glide path.
Why Don't Investors Understand Emerging Markets?
Big is not necessarily beautiful when it comes to forecasting emerging markets. In fact, the kind of big numbers that are often bandied around can actually make it harder for investors to understand whats really going on. We think there is a better way.
Finding Healthy Stocks in Europe's Troubled Landscape
by Tawhid Ali of AllianceBernstein,
European equity markets continue to face severe stress as the continent struggles to contain fallout from the sovereign-debt crisis. Yet this seemingly toxic environment is creating some exceptional investment opportunities in relatively healthy companies that can control their own destinies.
DC Plan Sponsors Should Look Further than Their Own Backyard
US defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors large and small are seeking ways to help plan participants achieve better outcomes. Over the last 30 years, compelling evidence has accumulated that suggests currency-hedged global bonds may be an important part of the solution.
Likely Rate Cut from the European Central Bank Will Be No Magic Wand
by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein,
Disappointing April data suggest that the ECB is set to cut the refinancing rate at Thursdays Council meeting. This is likely to have limited economic impact but could encourage expectations of more creative policy action later, helping to take some upward pressure off the euro.
Beware of the New Systemic Risk
It felt like there was nowhere to hide from the market declines last Monday, April 15, when stocks, bonds and commodities fell in unison across the world, well before the Boston bombings that day. We believe that this failure of diversification was instigated by increasingly powerful multi-asset funds, many of which use leverage, which may have become a new source of systemic risk for investors.
Value Investing and the Philosopher's Stone
When J.K. Rowling finished her first manuscript of Harry Potter and the Philosophers Stone in 1995, she submitted it to 12 publishers, who all rejected the book. In time, those publishers would regret missing the chance to back an unknown author who would later take the world by storm. Like the publishers who passed over Harry Potter, we believe that many investors today risk missing a historic opportunity to invest against the grain in attractively valued stocks across the globe.
Safe Harbor Is Safe for Secure Lifetime Income Default Investments
by Daniel Notto of AllianceBernstein,
The new frontier in US defined contribution (DC) plans involves qualified default investment alternatives (QDIAs) with a secure lifetime income component. Will such vehicles retain their safe-harbor protections? Yes.
Will Emerging-Market Stocks Close Gap with Global Equities?
by Morgan Harting of AllianceBernstein,
Companies in emerging markets are more profitable and less debt burdened than their developed-market peers, and their shares trade at a deep discount. So when will emerging-market stocks close the gap with global equity markets?
Is There a Silver Lining to the Gold Price Plunge?
by Jon Ruff of AllianceBernstein,
Its been a volatile week for gold prices, which tumbled by the most in 30 years. Although gold is still not obviously undervalued, we think the recent market moves make stock prices of gold miners look attractive when compared with prices of the precious metal.
Emerging-Market Debt: Pure High-Yield Strategies Come of Age
We believe investors should be thinking about emerging-market debt in terms of credit quality buckets (investment grade or high yield) rather than sectors (sovereign or corporate). For some types of investor, pure high-yield strategies can offer significant advantages.
Federal Judge Green-Lights Stockton Bankruptcy
by Michael Brooks of AllianceBernstein,
Stockton, California, made headlines last June when it filed for a Chapter 9 bankruptcy. Now, a federal judge has not only given his okay to proceed; hes also thrown retiree pension benefits into the debate. The big question is whether these benefits can be cut. The outcome could be a groundbreaking decision that would encourage other municipalities to adopt this approachparticularly those with pension problems.
China's Uncertainties Won't Stop Renminbi's Rise
by Hayden Briscoe of AllianceBernstein,
Recent data releases and the transition to new political leadership have created some uncertainty about Chinas short-term economic outlook. While positive growth surprises are unlikely in 2013, we still think nothing can stop the long-term appreciation of Chinas currency, the renminbi (RMB).
Emerging-Market Debt Offers More than One Kind of Diversification
by Paul DeNoon of AllianceBernstein,
The increases in the portfolios net asset value continue easily to beat the hardly exacting returns from the index. The fund has gained 10.4% gross for the year to date (to 22 March), vs. a 3.0% rise for the MSCI Emerging Index. This outperformance (replicated over rolling 1- and 3-year periods) has been achieved by choosing investments irrespective of index country or sector weightings or where they are listed, so long as they derive the majority of income and profits from developing countries.
Today's Good News Isn't Bad for US Stocks
by Daniel Loewy of AllianceBernstein,
Believe it or not, recent US housing market gains, the slight reduction in jobless rates and other signs of a revival in US economic growth are making some investors bearish about US stocks. We think their fears are misplaced.
SMID-Caps: To Know Them Is to Love Them
Its an opportunity born of neglect. Small-cap stocks have historically been the star performers of equities, handily outpacing large-cap stocks. And because they can get lost so easily in the grand sweep of the markets, small companies are often misunderstood and mispriced. That makes them great sources of alpha potential, especially for investors who take the time to get to know them well.
Cyprus Averts Disaster, but the Price is High
by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein,
The European Unions last-minute deal with Cyprus has headed off bankruptcy for now, but comes at a heavy price for uninsured bank depositors. Meanwhile, the move to impose losses on private creditors and growing complacency among policymakers could be storing up trouble for the future.
US Stocks: Third Times the Charm
by Seth Masters of AllianceBernstein,
At 1550, the S&P 500 has regained the peak it reached in March of 2000 (when the tech bubble burst) and again in October of 2007 (before the credit crunch hit). But we think the third times the charm: We think the stock market still has room to rise because equities are now more attractively valued and of higher quality than they were at previous peaks.
UK Budget: No Fiscal Consolidation, but Looser Money Ahead
by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein,
We expect little change in UK fiscal policy in Wednesdays budget. Instead the Chancellor George Osborne may try to nudge the Bank of England towards more aggressive monetary easing, putting further pressure on the pound.
Feared Copper "Flood" More Likely a Trickle
by Jon Ruff of AllianceBernstein,
Investors have turned bearish on commodities, particularly in the case of copper, where recent talk of a looming surge in new supply has sparked fears of a price rout. Were skeptical about the copper supply-glut story and dont think whats happening in copper is a "canary in the coal mine" for the rest of the metals markets.
US Manufacturing Restores Competitive Vigor
by Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein,
The US manufacturing sector has repeatedly figured out how to reinvent itself when faced with competitive threats. In recent years, American companies have become much leaner, regaining an edge in global markets that should lead to a bigger role in economic growth.
How Much Risk Does Adding Stocks Pose?
by Seth Masters of AllianceBernstein,
Investors have good reasons for their recent net increase in stock fund purchasesand good reasons to remain anxious, in our view. While market volatility has returned to normal, memories of the wild market swings of the past five years loom large. Here's what we think about the risk of increasing stock exposure now.
Is It Time to Get Back into Stocksor Too Late?
by Seth Masters of AllianceBernstein,
After five years of fleeing stocks for the perceived safety of bonds, US mutual fund investors became net buyers of stock funds in January. While some see the return of the retail investor as a negative indicator for stocks, we say, "Better late than never."
We Expect High-Yield Defaults to Remain Low
by Jeff Skoglund of AllianceBernstein,
High-yield bond defaults are historically low today, even for troubled companies. Despite the worries we hear in some corners about looming high-yield defaults, we think default rates will stay low for at least the next few years.
In the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown, US companies did the responsible thing and got leaner, reducing head count and overhead costs aggressively. When the recovery gained traction, they held the line on expensesand profit margins are at historic highs today.
Fed Must Tune in to Changing US Economy
by Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein,
With each passing month, more questions are being asked about the sluggish US economic recovery. Why has growth been subdued since the recession ended in mid-2009? What's changed in the economy? How long can loose monetary policies persist before promoting more inflation or creating a new bubble?
In Defense of Commodity Futures
Several prominent pension funds have slashed their commodity futures investments for delivering poor returns with higher volatility than usual, while failing to diversify equity exposures as expected, The Wall Street Journal recently reported. If inflation rises, they may regret it.
Results 1,701–1,750
of 1,841 found.
