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Six Questions for 2014 - January 3, 2014
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/3/14
Our economic outlook for this year will be available next week. To provide a taste of whats ahead, here are six of the key questions well focus on during the coming months.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/20/13
As this will be our last weekly of the year, we thought we would offer some parting reflections on the year just past.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/13/13
The Federal Reserve should find a way out of quantitative easing (QE) soon. And I think the Fed will take the first step in that direction at its December 17 - 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here are the arguments for and against reducing quantitative easing that the discussions will feature.

U.S. Housing Sector - Losing Ground?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/28/13
The powerful momentum that drove the American housing sector forward in the past three years may be dissipating. And it is clear that higher mortgage rates have a pronounced impact on demand. The Federal Reserve will therefore have to proceed with caution as it considers when and how to reduce its asset purchases.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/22/13
The world needs to do more to stimulate spending. Moderate gains are seen for U.S. holiday sales. The Federal Reserve may change its policy mix.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/15/13
The Federal Reserves policies may remain easier for longer than previously thought. Whats the best way to arrest falling labor force participation? Look for the Fed to adopt a lower unemployment target.

Global Economic Outlook
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/31/13
The United States avoided a fiscal accident after Congress struck a deal to end the partial government shutdown and bought time to resolve differences over the federal budget. Assuming political discord will not result in another standoff, the U.S. economy is projected to show steady and stronger growth in 2014 compared with 2013.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/27/13
Merkels win is unlikely to lead to any changes in the Eurozone. Extra lift from exports is not guaranteed. Robust growth is a challenge in India, Brazil and Indonesia.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/21/13
Global deleveraging has a long way to go. Fiscal drama and the economy. Funding for economic statistics needs to be enhanced

The View from Here - September 13, 2013: Five Years After
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/13/13
How much have we recovered from the global financial crisis?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/6/13
Manufacturing surveys are upbeat, but should we trust them? The August employment report leaves lots of room for improvement.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/30/13
Global policy-makers increasingly at odds with one another. Foreign exchange reserves may hold key to stabilizing emerging markets. Geopolitics weigh heavily on energy markets.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/13
India: Broken promise or temporary hiccup? Bond markets appear unmoved by central bank guidance. Rising mortgage rates are taking some of the steam out of housing.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/9/13
The global productivity "bust" is largely cyclical. The Bank of England tries forward guidance. Will low labor force participation keep the Fed from tapering?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/13
Income inequality is rising, but its not clear what to do about it. Brazils struggles come at a delicate time. Detroits road to bankruptcy does not set a path for others to follow.

The View From Here
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/13
Despite the advance of college savings accounts, many families are ill-prepared to pay for school.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/5/13
The odds of a September tapering have increased but are conditional on labor market conditions continuing to evolve at least as favorably as viewed at the present time. The important caveat is that the Feds forward guidance has stressed the importance of improvements in the outlook of the labor market and inflation to consider tapering, which implies that economic data between now and the September FOMC meeting will play an important role in the timing of tapering of asset purchases.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/7/13
The change at the top of the Bank of England comes at a delicate time. The May U.S. employment report will not sway the Fed either way. Eurozone and China PMI reports - interpret with caution.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/31/13
Is central bank communication clarifying or confusing? The European Central Bank should focus its efforts on small business lending. A look beneath the surface of housing proves revealing.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/24/13
The two Asian giants have a challenging year ahead. The Fed will be challenged to keep the bond market under control.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/19/13
The worlds public debt is much larger than it may appear. The lines have been drawn in the U.S. budget debate. Rates of disability are affecting labor force participation.

Everyone Wants More Financial Stability, But at What Cost?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/12/13
For all the good intentions, there is no guarantee that the rush to re-regulate will be successful. The next crisis may look nothing like the one just past, and the political will to take tough preventative steps during good times cannot be taken for granted.

Learnings From the Cyprus Saga
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/29/13
There are important differences between the situation in Cyprus and the challenges other southern European nations face that should limit the transfer of financial trauma. The hope remains that the ECBs promise to do whatever it takes to solve the sovereign debt crisis will ultimately settle markets. But access to certain types of ECB support requires reaching agreement on restructuring with the same European officials who have handled the situation in Cyprus so maladroitly.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/15/13
Despite exceptionally easy monetary policy, inflation risk remains low. Record stock market levels are boosting consumer spending. U.S. capital spending is poised to be a bright spot this year.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/16/13
The recent energy dividend is not likely to last. Crafting a single monetary policy for Europe is challenging.

Fiscal Friction is Taking a Toll on Confidence in Washington and Rome
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/14/12
Fiscal friction is taking a toll on confidence in Washington and Rome. What inflation rate should be used to index entitlements? Our updated US forecast assumes a budget resolution before year end.

Economic Update
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/22/12
A look beneath the surface reveals a housing sector still struggling with post-crisis transition. The Federal Reserve is intent on promoting a broader recovery in this area.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/16/12
The focus on the fiscal cliff cannot be overstated. It is very hard for the world's central banks to set rules governing monetary policy. The troika charged with addressing Greece has some internal disagreement.

U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook - November 2012
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/14/12
Our updated forecast anticipates some movement on the "fiscal cliff."

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew of Northern Trust, 11/9/12
Hurricane Sandy will impact the pattern of upcoming data, but is not likely to have a lasting economic impact. Our updated forecast anticipates some movement on the "fiscal cliff." France may be part of Europe's problem, not a source of Europe's solutions.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/2/12
The October employment report paints a favorable picture of the labor market.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore and James Pressler of Northern Trust, 10/26/12
Fiscal policy is a matter of multiplication. US GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter, but remains less than ideal. Recent reports out of China reassured the markets, but underlying trends are not so promising.

U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook - October 2012
by By Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/12/12
Budget negotiations in the US and Europe are attempting to balance austerity, prosperity, and posterity. US exports and imports are showing the strains of sluggish conditions overseas. Our updated economic forecast reflects some "cliff" effects, but not a renewed recession.

Reality Check for Europe
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/27/12
Over the past two years, the markets have gone through cycles of escalating concern about Europe punctuated by brief periods of calm.

The Hard Road Ahead for Housing
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/21/12
The housing sector has come a long way, but has a long way to go. Mortgage underwriting standards have reverted to much more conservative norms, and housing policy is very much in a state of flux. The result: renting is on the increase, and may enjoy renewed popularity for some time.

Open-Ended Easing
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/14/12
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took a very forceful set of steps this week, designed to stimulate what officials have called a "frustrating" job market. Our updated forecast suggests that the growth trajectory of the US economy is positive but sufficiently sub-par for the Fed to have initiated additional monetary policy support. There are increasing signs that China's economy is slowing more than the official readings would suggest.

Fed Preview: Time to Forge Ahead
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/11/12
I got home at about 8 one evening last week, and it looked like a bomb had gone off inside my house. The shrapnel included empty pop cans, open bags of snacks, and scores of used napkins. The sink was filled with dirty dishes, and laundry (clean, or dirty?) was strewn about the floor. No one was home, leading me to suspect that the explosion had done them all in.

The ECB: No Rest for the Weary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/7/12
The economic picture in Europe is worsening, exposing flaws in the foundation of the euro compact. The European Central Bank is trying its best, but remains hindered by its charter. European policy makers should focus on stabilizing the situation first, and seeking retribution later.

Whats A House Really Worth?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/28/12
Despite the well-documented correction in real estate prices, our property taxes have been slow to react. My wife is on a singular mission to correct this asymmetry, collecting evidence from a variety of sources that suggest that our house is relatively worthless. Good thing we don't need a home equity loan.

Setting Up for Jackson Hole
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/12
I was once favored with an invitation to the Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It was an amazing experience; the participant list was a Who's Who of global economic policy makers. I called my mother to brag, but all she wanted to talk about was the mischief that she and my father had gotten into while honeymooning in the area some fifty years earlier. Too much information.

Citius, Altius, Fortius
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/10/12
Countries across the globe seek faster, higher, stronger growth. Central banks in the United States and Europe are both seeking new ways to stimulate economic activity. Recent news from the housing market has been encouraging, but the race to recovery is likely to be a marathon, not a sprint. Headwinds blowing from Europe and China will continue to present significant downside risks to U.S. economic growth.

FOMC Preview: Christening QE III
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/27/12
Look for the Federal Reserve to embark on a new round of quantitative easing next week.

An Excess of Reserve
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/25/12
Bank credit has expanded nicely over the past two years, yet financial institutions continue to hold substantial pools of excess reserves with the Fed. Some suggest that this extended conservatism is hindering the economic expansion, and are calling on the Fed to lower the rate it pays on excess reserves. The ECB has already taken this step. We think that a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves is unlikely.

Peaks and Valleys
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/18/12
Second quarter economic activity disappointed on many fronts. The drama in Europe has taken its toll on exports, markets, and confidence. The 2012 election is starting to take shape, amid the approach of a huge fiscal "cliff" at the national and local level. The negativity and uncertainty which often surround Presidential campaigns may hinder economic and market performance. This months special focus is on the Fed's recent Survey of Consumer Finances, and what it means for our economy.
Results 601–644 of 644 found.