The One Thing the Market (Almost) Never Does
We put together a histogram of the last 96 years of annual returns, bunching them into percentile ranges. You might expect something that looks like a bell curve, but you would be very wrong! As advisors, we constantly remind clients about the necessity to think long term. The problem is that it’s hard at any age to think in 30-year terms, especially in the middle of a year like 2022.
Wealthspire Advisors 2020 Q3 Review: The Gorillas are Not Bigger Than the Room
- Without statistical support, political party and tax regime changes have not translated to discernable market performance.
- Global fiscal and monetary stimulus during COVID already far surpass what the world saw during and after the Great Recession.
- Equity and credit markets domestically and abroad continued to shrug off headlines, helping recoup some if not all of the losses from earlier this year.
- Anchored short-term interest rates helped investment grade fixed income yet another quarter.
Another Ride on the Roller Coaster?
A point we have increasingly been making is the self-mitigating nature of: (1) market returns and (2) capital market assumptions (“CMAs”). There is a demonstrable pattern of CMAs coming down after significant rallies in equity markets and going up after a decline.
Poorly Drawn Corollaries – 2020 Q1 Review
Be ready to hear this described as the worst since “the Great Depression”, or “since WWI”, or the “Spanish Influenza”, etc. The vast majority of those lost to the Spanish Flu suffered from secondary bacterial (not viral) respiratory infections, today curable by antibiotics.
Farsighted Expectations: Wealthspire Advisors 2019 Q4 Review
Unlike the weather, where predicting over the long term has much more error than predicting for tomorrow, we have a better idea of probable outcomes for how markets will perform in the 2020s than how they will do in 2020.
The Recession is Coming! The Recession is Coming! What is a Recession Anyway?
One of our least favorite things about investing is the remarkable imprecision of language. There are so many terms like “risk,” “momentum,” “smart beta”, and “asset class” (among many others) that have no precise definition– and yet, everyone assumes they know what those terms mean.