Market Outlook: Strong January, Strong Year?

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Thus far, market momentum has carried over from 2023 into 2024. Things started slow, with the S&P 500 closing down more than 1.5 percent during the first week of the year. But it has since rebounded sharply, hitting several new all-time highs in the process and closing the month of January up 1.59 percent.

With that being said, let’s look at what a historically strong January can mean for the markets for the remainder of the year.

Strong January Returns

Since 1957, the S&P 500 has returned more than 1.5 percent during the month of January 33 times, excluding 2024—I’d consider that a pretty large sample size. More than 80 percent of those times saw a positive return over the next 11 months (February–December). Additionally, the median 11-month return for those 33 occurrences is 13.51 percent.

data from trading view

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