25th Hour

A movie that I’m quite fond of is 25th Hour, a Spike Lee joint about three friends in post-9/11 New York City. One of them, played by Barry Pepper, is a bond trader. There is a scene with him on the trading floor, where he’s long a bunch of Treasury bonds in front of a payroll number, and his boss comes over and tells him that he’s above his risk limits and to close out the trade.

He doesn’t. It’s a big miss on payrolls, a huge rally in bonds, and Barry Pepper walks off a hero and goes to the club that night.

I just had one of those days.

Quite a day on Tuesday with the CPI number. I want to talk a bit about regimes...

Well, nothing goes on forever in the markets. Sometimes, it seems like it does, but inevitably, the trend will come to an end. There is an old saying that the trend is your friend. I find this not to be the case for me. By the time I identify a trend, it is pretty close to the end. The trend is your friend if you have an exceptional entry point. So, it is really about getting an exceptional entry point.