Munis in Focus: 2020 Municipal Market Update

Spreads on high quality issues have narrowed, flows have reversed

Record fund outflows, combined with razor-thin broker-dealer balance sheets and concerns about municipal credit risk, led to widening credit spreads in the first quarter of 2020. These trends largely reversed course in the second quarter, which saw improved investor confidence, net inflows, and narrowing spreads for high quality issues. In fact, yields for AAA rated municipals with maturities of less than 20 years have fallen to all-time lows but are still at attractive levels relative to ultra-low Treasury rates.

The story is slightly different farther down the credit spectrum, where high yield and BBB rated issues have not fully recovered and spreads remain wide from a historical perspective. Liquidity, too, remains challenged, with broker-dealer inventory at all-time lows, which presents both a risk and an opportunity for muni investors.

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Supply has ramped up, could hit record levels

Municipal supply rebounded in the second and third quarters, spurred in part by low borrowing costs. June alone saw $45.3 billion in municipal new issuance – the highest level since November of 2019 – although taxable issuance accounted for one-third of this total and tax-exempt issuance was muted.³ This is due in part to issuers of tax-exempt debt awaiting details of a long-discussed but still elusive Phase 4 stimulus plan. As issuers learn their fate from Congress, we expect tax-exempt cash flow borrowing to increase heading into the fall. This may pressure short-term yields modestly higher.

We expect taxable supply to remain elevated through the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Because of changes resulting from the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA), municipal issuers are refinancing tax-exempt bonds with taxable munis at a record pace. Absent a policy change, this activity is likely to continue and turn 2020 into the largest year of taxable municipal issuance since the Build America Bonds program expired in 2010.

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Policy issues loom large

Budget pressures and shifting political winds could mean higher taxes at both the state and local level, which would generally support tax-exempt municipals. Although no one knows for sure how the November elections will turn out, the potential for Democratic control of both the White House and Congress materially increases the chances for higher personal and corporate income tax rates. Higher marginal tax rates could, in turn, spur demand from banks and insurance companies, which have been net sellers of munis since the TCJA was enacted. The potential for meaningful legislation at the state level also bears watching; lawmakers in California are already contemplating higher income taxes and perhaps even a wealth tax to close the state’s rising budget deficit.

Three other policy issues – advance refunding, infrastructure, and changes in state and local tax (SALT) deductions – are on our radar but remain contingent on November’s election results and are not likely to see momentum before 2021.

The 2017 tax bill eliminated the tax-exempt status of advance refunding, which allows issuers to reduce borrowing costs by retiring existing callable bonds at lower rates. Restoring tax-exempt advance refunding bonds is an important priority for state and local officials who were able to save on interest costs under the pre-TCJA tax code. In July, the House advanced a $1.5 billion infrastructure bill that would do that, but the bill has since stalled.

In addition, SALT deductions are currently capped at $10,000 annually under the TCJA. The current caps have fueled demand for tax-efficient sources of income in high-tax states where SALT deductions have the greatest impact but are now curtailed. A restoration of the unlimited SALT deduction would reverse this process and could potentially benefit low- and no-tax state bonds on the margins.

Austerity, slow growth remain headwinds to state and local governments

While few states, local governments, and agency obligors have been spared from the economic repercussions of the pandemic, those that entered 2020 with sizable rainy-day funds and manageable debt levels should be better positioned than issuers without this kind of financial cushion. Regardless, fiscal austerity measures are likely to sap spending and gross investment by state and local governments, which account for more than 10% of U.S. GDP.

We anticipate a long and gradual economic recovery in the coming years, with pre-COVID-19 growth levels not returning until 2022 at the earliest. Correspondingly, we believe the Fed will keep interest rates at current levels into 2023, which should support municipal demand.

Students, parents, and teachers are also grappling with the issue of returning to traditional classroom settings. While these decisions are likely to be localized, a long-term shift toward remote learning is already underway and will likely pressure less-selective higher-ed institutions with modest endowments.

Defaults may rise, but credit quality is key

Against this market backdrop, bonds issued by essential-service and high-demand service providers are likely to attract investor attention. Examples include large not-for-profit healthcare systems, waste, water, and utilities, well-funded public universities, toll authorities, and large hub airports. Conversely, continuing-care retirement communities, retail-focused developments, and student housing may face an uphill climb.

Although we do not expect to see a large wave of municipal defaults, we would not be surprised to see municipal default rates edge up to the 0.50%-1.00% range over the coming year. Here some context is order. From a long-term perspective, municipal defaults are relatively rare – in part due to the flexibility that state and local governments have in raising revenues. From 1970-2018, the average annual municipal default rate was 0.015%. This increased to 0.27% following the recession of 2009-2010 but still represents a low figure relative to other asset classes.⁴

By and large, we expect most defaults to be contained to lower-rated issues and severely affected sectors. For most munis, including state and local governments, the next several years will be a story of austerity and modest downgrade pressure, rather than defaults.

Potential investment opportunities

Given these expectations, we see several areas of opportunity for investors:

• Longer-duration bonds: The Fed’s lending programs have largely focused on maturities of fewer than 36 months. However, the municipal bond market has an average maturity of approximately 12 years, and many issuers prefer to issue 30-year fixed-rate bonds. Recent Fed activity has led to a steepening of the yield curve and could present return opportunities in longer-dated bonds.
• Select BBB/BBs: While credit spreads for the highest-quality munis have tightened considerably since March, spreads on lower-rated issues have lagged the recovery in other credit markets and are at multi-year wides. As such, we see value in select bonds rated BB and BBB that can withstand stress tests for a slower economic recovery.
• Taxable munis: Taxable issuance has spiked as tax-exempt issuers remain on the sidelines in hopes of a Phase 4 stimulus bill. Due to elevated issuance, investors may want to keep an eye on taxable municipals, which are priced attractively relative to similarly rated corporate bonds.

Although state and local governments face budget pressures, many of these same issuers have policy levers that position them to weather economic stresses, which should bode well for the municipal markets over the long haul. And while default rates may rise and liquidity challenges remain, rising state and federal taxes and low interest rates should support municipal demand, as investors search for high quality, tax-efficient income in a low-rate world.

¹ Source: Bloomberg Barclays as of 30 June 2020. Investment grade municipal bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index. High yield municipal bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index.
² Source: Bond Buyer as of 1 April 2020
³ Source: Thomson Reuters TM3 MMD Interactive Data as of 30 June 2020
⁴ Moody’s Investors Service as of 6 August 2019

DISCLOSURES

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Please note that the following contains the opinions of the manager as of the date noted, and may not have been updated to reflect real time market developments. All opinions are subject to change without notice.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax and may be subject to state and local taxes and at times the alternative minimum tax; a strategy concentrating in a single or limited number of states is subject to greater risk of adverse economic conditions and regulatory changes.

The credit quality of a particular security or group of securities does not ensure the stability or safety of an overall portfolio. The quality ratings of individual issues/issuers are provided to indicate the credit-worthiness of such issues/issuer and generally range from AAA, Aaa, or AAA (highest) to D, C, or D (lowest) for S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch respectively.

The Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index that consists of a broad selection of investment grade general obligation and revenue bonds with maturities ranging from one year to 30 years.

The Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index that measures the non-investment grade and non-rated U.S. tax-exempt bond market.

It is not possible to invest in an unmanaged index.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2020,PIMCO Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660, 800-387-4626.

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