We’re thankful for this year’s economic growth in the U.S., which has exceeded most expectations. A soft first quarter has been followed by two quarters in which real activity expanded at an annual pace exceeding 3%.
Has the stock market gotten too expensive? Overall, we would say it hasn't. But we do feel some sectors are better positioned than others.
The elimination of personal exemptions is one of many features of the tax reform proposal presently being debated in Washington. If passed, the new regime would realign the finances of industries, households and even countries.
This month's forecast follows a wave of generally positive economic data that appeared to shake off the weather-related disruptions seen throughout the summer and early fall.
The current situation in Puerto Rico cannot be fully understood without a bit of a history lesson.
As expected, this month's forecast was a little more difficult to assemble. The influence of severe storms on economic activity and economic data made it harder to discern fundamental trends.
All cultures have the challenge of balancing the past and the present. But nowhere is the contrast between the two more apparent than in the Middle East.
We would do well to heed the teaching of behavioralists as we craft solutions to some of today’s thorniest problems.
The German phrase Sturm und Drang (literally: storm and stress) describes situations that become especially dramatic. This seems an apt expression to describe both the immediate past and the near future for the United States economy.
The eurozone has been the brightest star on this year’s economic horizon. The region’s output expanded at a 2.5% pace during the second quarter and has been rising continuously for 48 consecutive months.
Pharmaceutical costs represent about 10% of total U.S. health care expenditures, or about $325 billion each year.
Supply and demand theories suggest worker scarcity would increase the price paid for labor. This has certainly been the case during recent American expansions, when annual wage gains topped 4%.
Warm temperatures prevail in most of the United States at the moment, a trend that is mirrored in recent economic data. We don't expect conditions to cool as autumn approaches.
Monetary Policy Rules: Revisited and Giving Japan Credit
Global economic activity has generally been good during the first six months of 2017. Europe’s renewed momentum has been a highlight for the developed world, and China’s steady growth has compensated for faltering elsewhere in emerging markets.
Uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy changes persists. Tax cuts and infrastructure spending proposals are on the table, but they are unlikely to be enacted in 2017. We continue to maintain skepticism about the timing and size of the fiscal policy boost to economic growth. In the meantime, the expansion continues on, unperturbed.
Seniors and their families approach this milestone with a mix of pride and trepidation. Pride arises from the achievement of heightened status within the community of educated women and men. But there is trepidation about what lies ahead at the next level.
On the surface, China continues to outperform expectations. It has sustained a high rate of economic growth for longer than most other developing countries.
In this commentary we will summarize:
Incoming “soft data” and “hard data” conveyed vastly different U.S. economic conditions as the first quarter unfolded.
My timing in life is terrible. When I book a flight, cumulus clouds immediately begin plotting to cover the destination on the appointed day. When I plan a special menu for a dinner party, the supermarket runs out of a key ingredient.
Having accumulated a massive portfolio of securities during its quantitative easing (QE) program, the Fed has now arrived at a point where reduction is appropriate. But trimming the weight of monetary accommodation may not be easy.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lost its grip on global production, with the United States (among others) rising to become a significant source of output.
U.S. political issues have dominated the economic headlines for the past month. The failure of the Republican-led House of Representatives to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act delays consideration of tax reform and infrastructure spending.
Over the last decade, a combination of unprecedented global financial integration and unconventional monetary policy in global financial centers created new challenges for central banks in emerging markets (EM).
The world’s major economies have performed quite well in recent months despite the influence of political and policy upheaval. Brexit and the outcome of the U.S. election have yet to produce the negative outcomes some had feared.
The effort to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was an important test for Washington. Congress had elected to take up this debate first, for both procedural and symbolic reasons.
The Federal Reserve spent a good portion of last year talking tough about raising rates, only to back away at several turns when intimidated by international uncertainty.
The outlook for the U.S. economy is nearly unchanged from expectations at the start of the year. Congress will address tax cuts and infrastructure spending only after passage of an updated health care law.
