Technology companies are known for innovation, and it doesn’t take long for a revolutionary new technology to take hold and become a part of people’s daily lives. In my view, investors shouldn’t be threatened by technology. Rather, they should be skeptical of companies not utilizing technology to its fullest potential.
Equities experienced heightened volatility during the first quarter of 2018, with the S&P 500 Index surging 7.55% from Dec. 31 2017, through Jan. 26, 2018, before dropping nearly 8% through quarter-end.
The recent ruling reverses a longstanding tax policy affecting MLPs’ interstate pipelines.
The first quarter of the year has ended with major developed market indices down slightly and major emerging market indices up slightly. But those numbers belie a very turbulent period in which stocks were whipsawed.
The ninth anniversary of the current bull market recently occurred in March — which is the second-longest period without a 20% drop in the closing price of the S&P 500 Index.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as expected on Wednesday and signaled two more rate hikes for 2018. It also released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for the next few years, which suggests that the Fed is optimistic regarding the future performance of the US economy.
The US Department of Labor reported March 13 that the overall consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, each rose 0.2% in February, in line with market expectations and Invesco Fixed Income’s forecasts.
Tax reform has incentivized companies to return their offshore cash to the US. This could create opportunities for US investment grade bonds.
Last week brought renewed focus to three areas of concern that I’ve been writing about for some time: populism, protectionism and pressure on debtors. It appears that we may be moving closer to certain outcomes that could be of concern to markets.
Stocks globally have experienced more than a week of tumultuous trading, with the US stock market officially in correction territory. And after being relatively sedate for years, the VIX Index has risen dramatically in recent days, indicating rising volatility.
We expect US interest rates to be range-bound in the first half of 2018, but with a risk of higher yields in the second half. Our rates view is driven by our analysis of growth, inflation and monetary policy in the US and globally.
In my most recent blog, I described how choosing the appropriate alternative strategy (Real estate? Market neutral? Senior loans?) could become the biggest challenge for new investors in alternatives. This is one of the most common questions I receive here at Invesco, along with how to identify the best fund managers and how to select specific alt funds for a portfolio.
This time last year, the Invesco International and Global Growth team was optimistic about the better relative earnings potential that we saw building in Europe. Indeed, the trends played out to our benefit over the course of 2017. In dollar terms, European equities outperformed US equities by 3% in 2017, the first time since 2012.
In a number of places around the world, it’s an exciting time to be a taxpayer — or tax attorney. That’s because a variety of countries have brought or are bringing tax cuts to fruition.
Despite the near non-stop drama of the legislative process, we ended December with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 being signed into law. What does this mean for fixed income investors? In my opinion, the news is overwhelmingly positive for the US investment grade market; here are four reasons why.
Invesco Fixed Income’s macro factor framework provides an understanding of how developments in growth, inflation and financial conditions globally are likely to impact markets.
2017 was the year when financial technology, or “fintech,” made industry headlines. After such a year of change, what might 2018 bring? I highlight six trends I expect to see this year.
2017 was a positive year for the economy and capital markets. The global economy grew at a faster pace than in 2016, and risk assets also rose significantly.1 However, investors are wondering whether the current environment will continue through 2018.
Tax reform is currently underway in Congress and could have important implications for the tax-exempt municipal market. As we wait for a final agreement between the House and Senate versions — which could come as soon as today or tomorrow — we can make some observations about how tax reform is likely to impact the US municipal bond market, based on the details reported to date.
Weekly Market Review: Central banks are trying to chaperone the money supply without stifling growth, but uncertainty lies ahead.
Now, for the first time, investors are able to purchase futures on bitcoin, the digital currency. The Chicago Board Options Exchange just began offering derivatives contracts on bitcoin, which provide the ability to bet on the future price of this cryptocurrency.
Since the global financial crisis, inflation in the advanced economies has persistently undershot their 2% targets despite unprecedented quantitative easing (QE), extraordinarily low interest rates, large fiscal deficits and near all-time low unemployment.
I recently have been traveling around the country participating on a panel titled: “Alternatives: Time to Buy When Others Are Selling?” Spoiler alert — my answer to that question is a resounding “yes.” There are two reasons why.
As we look ahead to 2018, it’s important to first recognize how significant 2017 has been for international markets. This is the eighth year of a global bull market, but prior to 2017, international markets had trailed the US for four consecutive years — and for six of the last seven years.
The financial impact of 2017’s three devastating hurricanes has varied greatly depending on the region affected. From a credit standpoint, the most important takeaway is that each region’s ability to withstand the financial impact of the storms depends on its credit quality ahead of the storm.
In the past, investing according to your values, or anything other than financial fundamentals, was seen as a potential detriment to performance. Over time, however, investors have learned that non-financial metrics can help them better understand the risks a company faces, and may even impact that company’s stock price.
We’re now in the eighth year of a global bull market, and the positive effects are being felt in all regions. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects gross domestic product (GDP) for all of its member countries to grow in 2017 — a feat that has not occurred since 2007.
The Treasury market received a reprieve in September when the White House and Congress agreed on legislation coupling hurricane relief funding with a suspension of the debt ceiling until Dec. 8. The agreement puts off a potentially contentious political debate and keeps the government funded until at least year-end.
As 2017 nears its end, US value stocks are mired in their longest stretch of underperformance versus growth stocks since the Great Depression, held back by low interest rates and easy monetary policy. In my view, the top issue that will help determine whether that trend continues or abates is US tax reform.
About 100 years ago, Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world by virtue of its fertile land. Its economy thrived by shipping beef and grains around the world. But economic and political turmoil through the 1930s sowed the seeds of populism — the effects of which have lasted decades.
Last quarter saw stocks globally continue to rise. The relatively accommodative monetary policy environment and improved global growth were strong drivers. However, as we head into the fourth quarter, I think it’s important that we recognize the potential for greater disruption — in terms of both geopolitics and monetary policy — which can cause greater volatility in capital markets.
CEOs and boards are focusing on the wrong metrics. But if they change their ways, the opportunity could be great.
On Sept. 20, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officially announced the start of its balance sheet unwinding process, embarking on a slow journey of reversing the quantitative easing (QE) policy that it launched in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Science fiction is real. In October of last year, a self-driving semi in Colorado carried over 2,000 cases of beer from Fort Collins to a distribution center in Colorado Springs — a journey of over 130 miles. While there was a professional driver on board, he monitored the trip from the sleeping berth for most of the journey and never took the controls.
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world.
There’s an ongoing narrative about the energy industry that says exploration and production (E&P) companies are making money in unconventional shale plays, even with oil selling for only $50 a barrel. This is touted as a positive trend. But a deeper dive into energy company fundamentals suggests a vastly different story — one that prioritizes production volume over economic value.
The world economy and financial markets have been buffeted over the past year by national and geopolitical shocks, yet the current synchronized upswing across the world’s largest economies — the first since the global financial crisis (GFC) — remains unscathed so far.
Once again, the US debt ceiling is in focus. Since March, the US Treasury has been employing “extraordinary measures” to fund the US government, such as halting contributions to certain government pension funds and borrowing money set aside to manage exchange rate fluctuations. But those measures are expected to run out this fall.
The only constant is change — and the global market is certainly proof of that. As we assess our outlook for the rest of the year, we see several potential changes that could impact international small- and all-cap funds. Here are the five trends we anticipate having the biggest effect — and the ways the Invesco International and Global Growth team is poised to respond.
Prior to the global financial crisis (GFC), Ireland’s economy was a stellar performer, earning the country the moniker of “Celtic tiger.” The onset of the GFC caused a major economic contraction and a housing crash — but today, Ireland is once again the fastest-growing economy in the eurozone. In this blog, I examine the key elements that allowed Ireland to regain its footing.
Let’s take a closer look at these emerging market catalysts.
Can 529 funds be used for gap-year expenses? I recently had a parent ask me if their child’s 529 college savings account money could be used to help pay for gap-year expenses. Here’s the short answer: Maybe.
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views of rates around the world.
Stocks turned in a strong performance in the front half of 2017 despite geopolitical and monetary policy risks. The question, of course, is whether this performance trend can continue in the second half. I believe these two risks will cast an even longer shadow over markets going forward — making concepts such as diversification and risk management even more important for investors’ portfolios.
Valuations and regulations are among the trends that we’re watching in this industry.
The decision brings better representation of the entire Chinese economy.
As I travel around the country to meet with institutional clients, I often hear this question: “What is everyone selling? Because that’s something I’m really interested in buying.” These are clients who have the confidence and experience to contradict the herd mentality that causes many investors to chase market returns (which often results in buying near market tops while selling near market bottoms).
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views of rates around the world
Department of Labor (DOL) Secretary Alexander Acosta announced in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last week that the initial implementation date of the fiduciary rule will not be extended beyond June 9. Mr. Acosta’s decision is a victory for supporters of the rule, which will require financial advisors to act in the best interests of their clients in retirement accounts.
What to consider when saving for multiple children’s college educations.