The 200-day correlation between US stocks and the MSCI World Index is currently 45%. This is the second lowest level since 2008. The only time the 200-day correlation was lower was in July 2014.
The aggregate market cap of our entire developed world index, GKCI DM, has remained mostly in the range of $35-40T over the last few years, after surpassing the $35T level (previously reached in 2007) in late 2013.
The recent backup in yields is happening at an unfortunate time. In nominal terms, debt held by the public is at an an all-time high (approximately $14.3 trillion).
The Sentix Euro Break Up Index is on the rise again, up to 24.08 in the latest monthly reading (as of 11/30/2016).
It has certainly been a good couple of weeks for financial stocks. But the good times still haven’t been good enough to bring bank stocks out of last place among 24 developed market industry groups.
Since the introduction of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) in 1946, the US has experienced 11 recessions.
As U.S. equity markets continue to forge new highs, we take a look at our strong and weak close indicators to gauge investors’ conviction levels in the latest moves.
Listen, before we go through a litany of economic charts that pour some cold water on the recent bout of optimism regarding US economic growth prospects we want to stress that we don’t believe economic growth is about to fall off of a cliff.
Preliminary data from Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, released today, convey an overall positive picture for the Eurozone as a whole.