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And That's The Week That Was?
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
First Tunisia was stricken with political unrest and investors barely noticed. Then Egypt suffered through a revolution which initiated a change in leadership, and the markets offered a collective yawn. Now Libya faces mass protests and traders are on edge. So what?s different in this case? One word?OIL. Libya is the first major oil producing state to encounter the violent turmoil that threatens a major shift in power. It produces 1.6 million barrels of oil a day and crude prices surged in the immediate aftermath of the revolution on fears of a production slowdown.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
And don?t let the door hit you on the way out! As the Mubarak regime comes to a close, oppressed Egyptians look forward to better times ahead. (Unfortunately, turmoil remains a constant in this region.) The markets reacted favorably to the ?peaceful?? end of the conflict and also to the news of some pretty significant biz transactions. Dr. B. lashed out at Congress (and got an earful in return). Earnings season moved forward with mixed results. And the Dow enjoyed an eight day winning streak and then started another one as the week came to a close.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Consumer confidence in January rose to its highest level in eight months as individuals seemed to overlook the ongoing labor concerns. The long-ailing housing sector received a bit of good news as new home sales jumped to the best showing since May and home prices even surged to levels not seen since early 2008. Though claims for jobless benefits rose in the most recent week, analysts believe that harsh winter weather may have temporarily halted hiring and the recent improvements on the claims front should resume in the weeks to follow.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
With another corporate earnings season moving into high gear and equities riding a seven week winning streak, a healthy bit of skepticism (not necessary pessimism) has crept into the investor mindset.Some analysts still want to see more revenue growth as opposed to cost-cuts in the earnings reports.Others fear that ?the trend is your friend? may be a nice guide, but investors may be disregarding the ongoing debt issue in the EU and the rise in interest rates throughout emerging markets.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So was the holiday season really as strong as most retailers claimed? So is inflation about to rear its ugly head? Next week should help answer these questions as some key data will be released. After the disappointing same-store sales numbers, investors are eager to see the December retail sales report; the recent run-up in crude price may begin to work its way into the PPI and CPI data. Investors also look to start a new equity market winning streak to keep hope alive that January turns out to be a positive month (and the rest of the year will follow suit).
And That's The 'Year' That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
While the consumer has emerged from hibernation, an improved labor picture would boost this favorable trend. The Fed hopes that QE2 will help build on the recent economic momentum, though many doubters surely remain. Earnings comparisons get more difficult in the coming quarters, though analysts expect improved revenue growth to contribute to the positive results. The tax ?compromise? means a continuation of the bullish mindset in equities (for now). Developments abroad will impact the domestic markets as the EU looks to move beyond its debt issues, and China leads the global recovery.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
While 2010 offered great portfolio returns and renewed confidence for many investors (including individuals), they should not forget the reasons for the troubles that led up to the financial debacle. Hopefully, 2011 will bring more of the same in terms of stronger corporate earnings, improving economic data, and stellar market returns. One key thought for the new year?Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. Let?s not let that happen in the new year.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Anyone reading this commentary needs to get home for the holidays (or for some Chinese food and a movie for those non-Christmas celebrators). A few numbers, some last-minute window-dressing, announced global transactions, and a race to end with double-digit gains. Let?s close 2010 on a high note. Have a nice season and a very happy new year
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
It?s beginning to look a lot like? Obama and the Republican Congress gave the American people an early Christmas (or late Chanukah) present in the form of tax relief and an unexpected compromise from the Nation?s Capital. (Why solve problems today when we can put them off for two years?) Better than expected economic releases and some strong earnings helped propel the Dow to a two year high, though plenty of nervousness remains as the end of the year approaches. Despite the best efforts of the Fed, bonds remain in the doldrums. Things could be worse?we could live in Ireland (or Spain).
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
The great compromiser?or the great traitor?depends of which party loyalist you ask. Taxes dominated the news this week as O and the Republicans reached a compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts, much to the disappointment of Dems. Investors like certainty and welcomed the move as it meant capital gains and dividends would continue to be taxed at 15% for the next two years. Oil surged on prospects of economic growth, though the threat of inflation again resurfaced. So, Obama?any interest in hiring Karl Rove as an advisor?
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Retail Ireland, retail, China, retail, tax cuts, retail, QE2, retail, jobs, retail. Yes, investors have plenty on their minds these days. Hopefully, the news from retail can continue to compensate for some of the more concerning dynamics at play.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Korea, Ireland, insider trading, earnings season conclusion, QE2, retail activity. Plenty of news?but is anyone really paying attention? After all, its Thanksgiving. Take a break, give thanks, enjoy the family (and the bird), and worry about the world?s issues next week. Happy holiday?
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Yes, it?s still a small, small world. These days, developments in tiny Ireland and huge China seem to have greater effect on the domestic markets than earnings releases or transactional news closer to home. But at the end of the day (week), investors surveyed the global and domestic landscapes, gave a collective yawn, and the equity indexes closed little changed from where they began. Is it time for some turkey yet?
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Investors surveyed the landscape in the aftermath of two major market moving events (Fed stimulus and midterm election), retreated from their recent optimism, and booked profits heading into the homestretch of the year. Despite the overall success of another earnings season, investors fretted over the global progress (or lack thereof) from the G20 meeting of world finance ministers and news that China may have inflationary problems on its hands.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Dissecting election results, a Fed policy meeting statement, several key economic releases, and new earnings reports can prove pretty stressful. This week saw a somber Obama offer an olive branch to Republicans following their big victory in the midterms. Bear in mind, Prez Clinton suffered a similar fate in 1994 and lived to fight another day. Politicos now expect conciliation over taxes, health care, offshore drilling, and other GOP action items as Big Oil, Big Pharma, and Wall Street prepare for another boom. (The pressure is on, Speaker Boehner.)
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
October 2010 comes to a close and, despite little movement in the key indexes for the week, equities experienced another solid month. Earnings, Fed-Speak, and midterms gave investors more than enough to keep themselves busy and next week promises more of the same. Add a few major releases (manufacturing, labor) to the mix, and investors/traders can expect little sleep over the course of the week. (For that matter, neither can parents and siblings of newborns?pic attached.)
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
All in all, a relatively ?eventful? week. Quarterly earnings remained favorable (for the most part). The Fed moved a step closer to a new ?stimulus.? Politicos upped the election-year grandstanding. China?s economy took a tumble (we should all tumble so far). And, my wife gave birth to another daughter (Zoe Erin). Plenty of reasons for celebration. (Beware of typos this week.)
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Anyone miss those doldrums of summer? The days of light volume? The vacations from trading desk? Well, these days, the 24-hour news cycle is coming fast and furious: Bernanke wants to create inflation; big banks are ripping off Main Street America again through foreclosures; corporations are posting higher earnings (but what about revenues?). Investors had plenty to digest during the week and should have plenty more in the days to come. While the uncertainty remains, the ?somewhat? bullish trend seems to continue (at least for now).
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Earnings season; labor reports; Fed-speak; political grandstanding; hostile offers; currency battles?say what you want, but the markets sure aren?t boring these days. With plenty of uncertainty still in the air, the ?bulls? remain firmly in control (for now) and equities keep rolling along (even past 11k on the Dow). Nothing like a friendly trend.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
The economy remains unsteady as an uncertain labor picture continues to limit consumer activity. And yet, corporations have accumulated trillions of dollars in cash and money markets yielding near 0 percent have forced managers to seek other options. Looking ahead, the Fed's stimulus debate wages on although many expect a more limited bond buying program than the $1.7 trillion one offered last year. As for the markets, companies still have lots of cash looking for a home and hopefully equities have more room to run.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So much for ?sour? Septembers. This year, ?super? September is more appropriate. The bulls were out in force last month as equities experienced their best September since 1939. The week was met with some profit-taking and quarter-end window dressing (is that still allowed?) as investors eyed an uncertain Fed policy and a heated election season.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Four weeks and counting. In August, investors feared the worst and equities were on a downward spiral. And now for something completely different. As September nears a close, the exact opposite is true and a bullish feel has taken over. An odd message about inflation and some concerning euro indicators were overshadowed by renewed strength in housing and manufacturing and more boardroom confidence as equities rose for the fourth consecutive week. As for October???
Market Matters...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Some believe the Fed should restart the bond-buying program to help keep long-term interest rates low, thereby encouraging additional corporate borrowing and bank lending. Others fear that the program has a very limited chance of success and worry that inflation may become a not-so-welcome byproduct of such a move. With the summer well in the rearview mirror and trading desks back at full staff, market volume could pick up next week, and hopefully the excessive daily volatility will ease somewhat.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Labor Day?Religious holiday?hardly worth coming to work at all this week. After some early fears about European financial institutions being more ?stressed? than initially reported, investors (who chose to work this week) focused on some positive signs in the economy. On light volume, stocks traded relatively flat, while fixed income investors struggled to digest all the new supply (treasury and corporate). By next week, the summer doldrums should be long forgotten and investors can once again get back to work and focus on the keys to the markets.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
What a difference a month makes. While naysayers and pessimists dominated the investor sentiment in August, the eternal optimists stepped forward in September (well, at least, for the first three days) and made a statement about perceived value in equities. Stocks took their cues from some decent economic releases (including key labor data) and bulls awoke from hibernation in time to stop the month-long carnage (and keep the Dow safely above 10k and ?in the black? for the year). Enjoy the holiday weekend (but don?t get complacent?sentiment can shift on a dime).
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Despite the increased boardroom confidence (dealmaking), investors carried their bearish tone into Friday?s session with many anticipating a weekly close below the critical 10k level on the Dow. Somehow they perceived good news in a downwardly revised GDP release and comments from Bernanke that future Fed stimulus may be in order. In reality, the light volume these days may imply little conviction for any direction in the markets and the real tone will not be set until after Labor Day when vacations end and traders are back at their desks in full force.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Positive earnings AND an array of new M&A activity. Taken together, these two factors should mean one thing?strength in equities. Unfortunately, investors looked past the week?s business headlines and focused on the economic data, much of which depicted a sluggish recovery. Many skeptical investors took the easy way out and turned to the safe-haven of treasuries in lieu of the riskier equities.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
No doubt, investor sentiment can shift on a dime. Perhaps, we can blame some of the market moves on overreaction and light volume from the end of summer blahs. After closing out the second quarter on a sour note, the equity market regained its bullish form in July, but again hit a serious road block this week. A perceived pessimistic Fed statement following the policy meeting sent investors running for cover as four straight down days left the major indexes back ?in-the-red? for the year.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Although the economy remains in recovery mode, the labor statistics confirmed that it may not be as strong as many were hoping. Several quarters of lackluster growth appear to be on the horizon. Even though the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5 percent, the June payroll data was revised lower and the 'underemployment' rate stands at a high 16.5 percent. Retailers braced for a feeble 'back-to-school' shopping season as same-store sales for July came in below expectations and department stores and teen retailers reported the most disappointing results.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
A couple of Fed sightings, some mixed earnings reports, and a stand against profane emails. At the end of the day (week), the markets were little changed from where they began. Seems hardly worth coming in this week (though the month of July was pretty successful for equities).
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
After riding high for the first few months of the year, investors faced the uncertainty of another major market downturn and watched those early profits disappear. In more recent times, they have been clawing their way back to breakeven territory. After some favorable earnings news and some decent economic (and banking) reports from Europe, the Dow and Nasdaq are virtually flat for the year and the S&P 500 is nearing the breakeven point. The small-cap Russell 2000 has fared a bit better thus far.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So much information; so little time to digest. While earnings season kicked off to some mixed results, investors also eyed critical news from BP, Goldman, Apple, the Fed, and even Playboy as they attempted to determine the next direction for the markets. The early weak euphoria was replaced by newfound late-week concerns and stocks did another about-face as the game of streaks continued. Aren?t the summers supposed to be slow and boring?
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Enough with the rumors and innuendoes?the optimism and concerns?the favorable forecasts and downgrades?the fundamental number crunching and the charting?Let the earnings season begin. For weeks, some analysts have spoken of stronger comps and feared disappointments. Others looked at the economic recovery and continued to believe that enhanced manufacturing activity is just now beginning to show up in the profit numbers. The waiting is over?Alcoa kicks off the season on Monday.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So is the temporary pullback actually much more? Since setting recent highs in April, equities have tumbled over 15% and are dangerously close to official bear market territory (>20%). The dramatic volatility has forced many retail (individual) investors back to the sidelines and to the safe-haven of low-yielding treasuries. Then again, the summer months often bring significant price swings as traders head to the Hamptons and away from the daily grind (of flash trades).
And That's the Quarter That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
As the quarter began, the economy continued its trek toward recovery; confidence had returned to corporate boardrooms; and investors were pouring their ?cash-on-the sidelines? back into risky assets. Just when all seemed right in the world again, tiny Greece (and huge BP) began dominating the headlines. (Remember when a mere volcano was big news?)
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Get used to this volatility and market uncertainty - it could last a while. This week, the naysayers won out again as concerns about the upcoming earnings season emerged and talk of a possible double-dip in Europe made its way into the Fed?s policy meeting. Financial reform appears to be headed to the Prez?s desk. The week found personal conflicts on the military front, a potential loss of the Budget Director, and the realization that a federal judge may have more power over issues of deepwater drilling. Is it time for the July 4th vacation yet? (Will we be able to afford the gasoline?)
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
As politicos took shots oil company execs, the joint strategy from the oil giants seemed apparent?throw BP under the bus: ??a dramatic departure from the industry norm in deepwater drilling?,? ?what went wrong at this well that did not occur at the 14,000 other deepwater wells that have been successfully drilled around the world?,? ?an independent investigation of the accident will show that this tragedy was preventable.? BP?s chairman and CEO expressed ?deep regret? over the spill?s impact (though both denied any involvement in key decisions leading up to the disaster).
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So just who is corporate public enemy number one these days: BP? Goldman Sachs? AIG? While BP has been garnering much of the negative attention these days, Goldman?s unfavorable image resurfaced (and, of course, AIG always remains lurking in the background, especially whenever Goldman?s challenges are revealed). This week, the markets tried to disregard that negativity and equities enjoyed their first ?up? week in the past month. Even a late-week lower-than-expected retail sales release couldn?t overcome the new-found optimism of some well-timed ECB and Fed comments.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Move over Greece?here comes Spain. While one tiny euro country dominated the press for months, another looks to be taking over the headlines. This week, Spain announced significant budget cuts, and then its debt was downgraded by Fitch right before the weekend began (and after many traders had departed). China offered a ?vote of confidence? for the euro-zone (at least, before the Fitch move). At home, the numbers continue to impress and say ?recovery,? though investors can?t help but keep an eye (or two) on Europe as equities suffered their worst month since February 2009.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Up 400, down 37, up 150, down 114, down 160. Say no more?volatility has returned to the equity markets. Fears of a European contagion practically wiped out the euphoria from a European bailout. Doesn?t anyone pay attention to domestic news anymore? Data indicates a nice recovery. Earnings continue to reflect growth. Corporate boardroom wreak of optimism. The week ended on a sour note, but please don?t forget the positives.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
So when is a 350 point down day considered a good thing? Perhaps, after it recovered from an earlier decline of almost 1,000 points? For a week at least, bullish investors went into hibernation and the bears reappeared, warning everyone about Greece, Goldman, Congress, deficits, the Fed, earnings, inflation, and everything else that could negatively impact the markets. Add a few potential technical computer glitches and maybe a heavy trading finger or two and you have one of the worst weeks among equities ever (memories of 2008).
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Goldman?s Fabulous Fab may not seem so fabulous these days, at least, not to the grandstanding Congresspersons and federal prosecutors. During the week, investors should have had plenty to cheer about: earnings remained strong, the economy continued in rebound mode, the Fed offered some positive comments and kept rates unchanged at low levels. However, equities plummeted as news from the EU raised some additional concerns about the global economy and the perpetual bailouts of other European countries (Spain and Portugal). And, as for Goldman Sachs?memories of 1990 Drexel Burnham?
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
What did more long-term damage to the global economy: Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano or Goldman Sachs? This week, both stories dominated the news and the volcano eruption seemed likely to go away long before the recurring financial 'villain.' While the rising price tag of the airline shutdown in Europe pushed close to $2 billion, the harm caused by the alphabet of subprime mortgage derivatives (CDO/CDS ? both real and synthetic) had even greater implications. Next week expect all eyes to turn to the new statement from the Fed on the Federal Funds rate.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Earnings season, tax day, Greek bailout, more ?controversial? matters at Goldman. So what else is new? With analysts having some ?great expectations? for 1st quarter earnings, the initial week did not disappoint (sans Alcoa). The economic numbers continue to produce some favorable results and the Fed is saying all of the right things. Even the labor sector looks to be improving. By week?s end, investors may have been looking for an excuse to take some profits and SEC/Goldman provided them just the right selling motivation. Much ado about nothing? Time will tell.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Heading into the first official week of reporting, several companies already raised earnings projections and shed a bit more optimism on the quarter just passed. Still the 'too far, too fast' naysayers believe the decent expected earnings results are already built into the market and Dow 11k does not justify the current level of corporate or economic activity. In short?Greece continued to struggle; treasury supply was absorbed reasonably well; oil pushed higher (then lower); Greenspan and Rubin got grilled; Bernanke hedged his bets.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
The Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended April 2, 2010. For those of you forced to get up early for the labor numbers, here you go. The economy added 162k jobs in March, the best showing in three years, while the jobless rate held steady at 9.7 percent. For those of you still asleep (or who just been back to sleep)?enjoy your holiday (and don?t worry about how those temp census workers impacted the number)
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Last week's data revealed continued economic recovery, even though housing continues to lag, an alarming trend given that future Fed moves could negatively impact the sector. Optimists still hope that dismal housing numbers reflect poor winter conditions, however, and will reverse themselves in the coming months. As the first quarter comes to a close, expect managers to rebalance positions, take some profits and even lock in losses for tax purposes. The new month will bring a plethora of economic data, highlighted by the unemployment rate late in the week.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Welcome to March Madness. The time when the world looks on to ascertain the level of financial support to that European superpower of Greece?the time when politicos ignore each other and move forward with key legislation in a purely partisan manner (so what else is new?)?the time when Bernanke has to teach an Economics 101 class to elected officials?the time when Google says goodbye to the fastest growing Internet market?and the time when investors quit following the markets because Old Dominion is playing (and beating) Notre Dame.
And That's the Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
. Let the rally continue. As the country (world for that matter) celebrated the one year anniversary of the market turnaround (bull market sounds too encouraging), investors took time to reflect on just where we have been and where we may be going. Buyers emerged again (though on a smaller scale?
Results 151–200
of 303 found.
