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Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for March 2012, which is 1,341.27. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,310.33. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Call Update: Weekly Leading Index Declines Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) dropped to 123.1 from a slight downward revision of 124.4 (see the fifth chart below). The WLI growth indicator also slipped, now at 0.1 as reported in Friday's public release of the data through May 18, down from the previous week's 0.4. The latest data release to the general public continues to command focus in the wake of Lakshman Achuthan repeated reaffirmation of ECRI's recession call in live interviews around the major business networks on May 9th.
ECRI Update: Reaffirming the Recession Call ... Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.1 as reported in todays public release of the data through May 4. This is essentially unchanged from last week. However, the underlying WLI again rose fractionally from an adjusted 124.6 to 125.4 (see the fourth chart below). The big news this week, however, is not the weekly data update but ECRI's latest reaffirmation of its recession call in a Bloomberg interview with ECRIs Lakshman Achuthan earlier this week. Ive embedded a link to the nine-minute video on the Bloomberg website.
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator: Third Consecutive Decline
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.0 as reported in today's public release of the data through April 27. This is the third consecutive week-over-week decline since January 6th. However, the underlying WLI again rose fractionally from an adjusted 124.0 to 124.7.
Rebutting Paul Krugman: The Rest of the Story
I recently read an interesting article over at Barry Ritholtz's blog triggered by one of Paul Krugman's recent commentaries, The Secret of Our Non-success. Krugman showed the chart from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Since data-miners and hobby chartists like me relish the opportunity to present data to readers so they can make their own decisions, I zipped over to FRED to recreate Krugman's chart.
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Relatively Unchanged
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio, The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor, The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost, The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline.To facilitate comparisons, I've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression.
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator: The Growth Index Slips Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.6 as reported in today's public release of the data through April 20. This is the second consecutive week-over-week decline since January 6th. However, the underlying WLI rose fractionally from an adjusted 123.8 to 124.1.
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator: The Growth Index Slip
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 1.2 as reported in today's public release of the data through April 13. This is the first week-over-week decline since January 6th, over three months ago. The underlying WLI contracted more dramatically from an adjusted 125.9 to 123.9 (see the fourth chart below). This is the largest decline, in percentage terms, since August 19th of last year.
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator: The Growth Index Continues to Improve
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 1.4 as reported in today's public release of the data through April 6. This is the thirteenth consecutive week of improving data for the Growth Index and the highest reading since August 5th of last year. However, underlying WLI contracted slightly, decreasing from an adjusted 126.3 to 125.7
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator Growth Is Now Positive
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 1.0 as reported in today's public release of the data through March 30. This is the twelfth consecutive week of improving data for the Growth Index and the first postive reading since August 12th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 125.8 to 126.5 (see the fourth chart below).
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Increases
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month. As I've frequently pointed out, these indicators aren't useful as short-term signals of market direction. Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for years. But they can play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for March 2012, which is 1,389.24. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,408.47. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator Is Poised for Growth
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.0, the pivot point between growth and contraction, as reported in today's public release of the data through March 23rd. This is the eleventh consecutive week of improving data for the Growth Index and the highest level since August 12th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 125.4 to 125.9 (see the fourth chart below).
ECRI Indicators Improve, But Beware the ''Yo-Yo Years''
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -0.4 in today's public release of the data through March 16th. This is the tenth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 12th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 125.0 to 125.7 (see the fourth chart below).
ECRI Reaffirms Its Recession Call with New Analysis
The WLI growth indicator of the ECRI came in at -1.4 in today's public release of the data through Mar. 9th. This is the 9th consecutive week of improvement data for the Growth Index and the highest level since Aug. 5th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 124.6 to 125.1. The big news this week is the ECRI commentary: Why Our Recession Call Stands. The most interesting revelation in the commentary involved a shift to the year-over-year WLI change from ECRI's favored, and rather arcane, method of calculating the WLI growth series from the underlying WLI.
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Improves (Slightly) Yet Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -2.6 in today's public release of the data through March 9th. This is the eighth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 19th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 124.1 to 124.3 (see the third chart below). Here again is a recent media appearance by Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, defending ECRI's recession call on with CNNMoney.
ECRI Continues to Defend its Recession Call
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -3.0 in today's public release of the data through February 24th. This is the seventh consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 19th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, incresing from an adjusted 123.1 to 124.2 (see the third chart below).
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for February 2012, which is 1,352.49. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,365.68. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
? TTM P/E ratio = 15.0 (15.2) ? P/E10 ratio = 21.9 (22.1)
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Inreases
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month. ? The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ? The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ? The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost ? The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline To facilitate comparisons, I've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression.
ECRI Defends its Recession Call
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -3.5 in today's public release of the data through February 10th. This is the sixth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year. However, the underlying WLI decreased fractionally from an adjusted 123.4 to 123.2 (see the third chart below). This is the second week of slippage in the underlying index.
ECRI's Controversial Recession Call: Fifth Consecutive Improvement in the Growth Index
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -3.7 in today's public release of the data through February 10th. This is the fifth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year. The underlying WLI decreased fractionally from an adjusted 123.6 to 123.5
Profit Margin Squeeze: New Update
The accompanying charts offer clues for evaluating the risk of profit margin squeeze in the current economy. One is the ratio of crude to finished goods in the Producer Price Index. The other is an indicator constructed from two data series in the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey through yesterday's release. It is the spread between the Philly Fed's prices paid (input costs) and received (prices charged) data.
ECRI's Puzzling Recession Call: The Growth Index Contraction Eases Yet Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -4.3 in its latest reading, data through February 3rd. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -5.3 (a slight downward revision from the previously reported -5.2). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year. The underlying WLI increased fractionally from an adjusted 123.0 to 123.3.
Syria, Assad and the Arab Spring
Last October I posted a commentary, Libya, Ghaddafi and the Arab Spring, shortly after Ghaddafi's death at the hands of the Libyan National Liberation Army. It was the third major Arab regime to be overthrown in 2011. Since that time Ali Abdullah Saleh has resigned the presidency of Yemen, which remains in a state of turmoil. And the media spotlight is currently on the escalating conflict in Syria.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -5.2 in its latest reading, data through January 27. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -6.6 (a slight downward revision from -6.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since late August. The underlying WLI increased fractionally from an adjusted 122.7 to 123.2 (see the third chart below).
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Inreases
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month. ? The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio, The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor, The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost, The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline. These indicators aren't useful as short-term signals of market direction. Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for years. But they can play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for January 2012, which is 1,300.58. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,312.41. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet. ? TTM P/E ratio = 14.3 (14.1) ? P/E10 ratio = 21.3 (21.5)
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.5 in its latest reading, data through January 13. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -8.6, and the underlying WLI rose from an adjusted 121.1 to 123.4 (see the third chart below). The growth index had slipped lower over the past two weeks, but the latest data point is the highest (i.e., least negative) since early September.
Demographic Headwinds: The Decline of Peak Spenders
"S&P 500 to Fall 30-50% in 2012." Dent's grim forecast is primarily based on the demographics of the peak spending years, an age cohort he refers to in the interview as 46-50. Economists and market analysts often think of retiring boomers as the primary drag on the economy with their the transition from the accumulation to the decumulation phase of their life-cycle. But if we understand of the crucial role of consumption for our economic health, a significant decline in the number of peak spenders is a demographic headwind that will challenge us for years to come.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contracts Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -8.4 in its latest reading, data through January 6. The latest public data point is a slightly deeper contraction from last week's -8.2, although the underlying WLI rose a point from 120.2 to 121.2 (see the third chart below). The index had been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the previous seven weeks but has slipped lower over the past two weeks.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Shows Further Contraction
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -8.2 in its latest reading, data through December 30. The latest public data point is a deeper contraction from last week's -7.6. The index had been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the previous seven weeks but has now slipped lower.
The Great Leading Indicator Smackdown: New Update
Periodically I update a series of overlays comparing the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and the Conference Board's monthly updates of its index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The most recent LEI update was published on December 22 (data through November), and today we have the latest WLI, based on data through December 30th. As we will see in the charts below, the two indicators continue to exhibit a major divergence.
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Remains High
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the months. ? The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio. ? The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor. ? The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost. ? The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline. To facilitate comparisons, I've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for December 2011, which is 1243.32. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,257.60. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet. ? TTM P/E ratio = 13.8 (14.0) ? P/E10 ratio = 20.5 (20.7)
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged for Seven Weeks
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 23. The latest public data point is virtually unchanged from last week's -7.7. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past seven weeks. Those of us who follow this indicator are nervously awaiting a confirmation or reversal of the trend.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Goes Slightly More Negative
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.7 in its latest reading, data through December 16. The latest public data point is fractionally more negative than last week's -7.5. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past six weeks.
Rebalancing Resurrected
This is part 1 of a 3 part series that explores optimal methods of dynamic rebalancing between stocks and bonds. This study examines these methods in the context of a US equity / Treasury basket. The next 2 posts will explore the impact of our proposed techniques on Japanese and Canadian equity / bond baskets. The investment community is in the midst of an identity crisis, though admittedly many in the industry don't know it yet. At the heart of the matter is the following misconception: Investors perceive that investment professionals add value via security selection and market timing.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Moderates Fractionally
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.5 in its latest reading, data through December 9. The latest public data point is fractionally less negative than last week's -7.7, which is a downward revision from -7.6. CRI's recession call is, to say the least, quite controversial in financial circles. The perma-bears are generally supportive of the forecast, while the predominantly bullish mainstream financial view ranges from skeptical to dismissive.
A Confederacy of Dunces?
On January 9th, 1790, Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton issued his Report on Public Credit in response to a request by the House of Representatives. The report, though overlooked, belongs in the canon of American historical documents along with the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution and the Federalist Papers among others. In it Hamilton argued the newly formed Federal government should assume the war debts incurred by the thirteen colonies during the Revolutionary War.
ECRI Update: Lakshman Achuthan Explains the ECRI Recession Call
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 2. The latest public data point is fractionally less negative than last week's -7.8. Yesterday Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. It was sufficiently representative of the ECRI view that it's also available on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its entirely.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Reverses Trend and Declines Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.8 in its latest reading, data through November 25. The latest public data point is more negative than last week's downwardly revised -7.4 (previously -7.3). Today's update reverses the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for October 2011, which is 1226.41. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,246.96. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Watch: Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate
The Weekly Leading Index growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute posted -7.3 in its latest reading, data through November 18. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's upwardly revised -7.8 and continues the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. Earlier this month I posted the November 7th CNBC interview with Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. I'm again including video because ECRI continues to feature it on their website here, which I see as ongoing evidence that they stand behind their recession forecast.
ECRI Recession Watch: Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.9 in its latest reading, data through November 11. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's -8.5 and continues the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. Last week I posted the November 7th CNBC interview with Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. I'm again including video because ECRI continues to feature it on their website, which I see as evidence that they stand behind their recession forecast.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Decline Moderates
The Weekly Leading Index growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute posted -8.5 in its latest reading. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's -9.4, and trending above its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. ECRI has come under some harsh criticism this past week, starting with a CNBC interview of Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. About half-way through the interview, the discussion turns into an uninformative debate in which Achuthan speaks of a "contagion among the forward leading indicators" but dodged requests for specifics.
O Dollar, Where Art Thou?
What would the value of S&P 500 index be if it were adjusted based on the dollar index? Many of us are familiar with the dollar index. We know that the value of our dollar versus a basket of currencies fluctuates as a result of many reasons. Let's look at our dollar index, which is conveniently available from Federal Reserve's economic data repository (FRED). What would the S&P 500 Index look like if we adjusted for the rise or fall of the dollar? We typically adjust for inflation, but do we know what impact our central bank, government spending, and monetary policies have upon the dollar?
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Is Off Its Interim Low
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -9.4 in its latest reading, data through October 28, off its interim low of -10.1 set over the previous two weeks. (Note: last week's original level of -10.0 was revised downward to -10.1.) On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
Market Valuation Indicators: Increased Overvaluation After the October Rally
Below is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I regularly follow. As I've frequently pointed out, these indicators aren't useful as short-term signals of market direction. Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for years. But they can play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns. At present they continue to suggest a cautious long-term outlook and guarded expectations.
Results 201–250
of 292 found.
