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Results 51–100 of 292 found.

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 9/2/14
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,961.53. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 2003.37. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 8/23/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.3, unchanged from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 2.8 from the previous week's 3.5. On Monday of this week, ECRI broke its silence to the general public with a new commentary on its website focused on housing affordability and home price growth

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 7/19/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.2, down from the previous week's 136.2. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) slipped to 4.5 to 4.2.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 6/28/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.4, down from the previous week's adjusted 135.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is unchanged at 4.3 (the previous week adjusted down from 4.4).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 6/6/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, down from the previous week's adjusted 135.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) fell to 4.8 from 5.3. Last Friday (May 30th), ECRI posted a brief overview of post-recession GDP forecasts from the Fed's Open Market Committee and the less optimistic series from the Congressional Budget Office.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 5/30/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.4, down from the previous week's 135.1. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 5.3 from 5.0. That's the highest since June of last year.

Real Median Household Income Fell 0.42% in April
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 5/30/14
The Sentier Research monthly median household income data series is now available for April. The nominal median household income was down $84 month-over-month and up only $1,420 year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, it was down $222% MoM and only $409 YoY. The real numbers equate to a -0.42% MoM decline and a 0.78% YoY increase.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 5/23/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.1, down from the previous week's 136.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 5.0 from 4.9. That's the highest since June of last year.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 4/25/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, up from last week?s 133.6 (revised from 133.5). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 3.3 from last week?s 3.0. Here are some notable developments since ECRI?s public recession call on September 30, 2011: 1) The S&P 500 is up 61.0% at yesterday?s close, although off its record close on April 2nd. 2) the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7%, and 3) Q4 GDP was revised upward to 2.6%.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 4/11/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, up from last week's 133.6 (revised from 133.5). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 3.3 from last week's 3.0.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 4/4/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.6, unchanged last week (which was revised from 133.5). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 3.0 from last week?s 2.9. Here are some notable developments since ECRI?s public recession call on September 30, 2011: 1) The S&P 500 is up 61.9% at yesterday?s close, fractionally off its record close on April 2nd. 2) the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7%, and 3) Q4 GDP was revised upward to 2.6%.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 3/28/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.5, up from 133.0 last week (a revision from 132.9). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place rose to 2.9 from last week's 2.3.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 3/21/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.9, down from 133.6 last week (a revision from 133.8). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place rose to 2.3 from last week's 2.1 (a revision from 2.3).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 3/14/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.8, up fractionally from 133.5 last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place rose to 2.3 from last week's 1.8.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 3/7/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.5, up from 131.8 last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place rose to 1.8 from last week's 1.7.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 2/28/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.8, down from 123.3 last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place slipped to 1.7 from last week's 2.5 .

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 2/21/14
With yesterday's release of the January Consumer Price Index, we can now calculate Real Retail Sales for the underlying sales data released on February 13th. Nominal Retail Sales had fallen 0.4% month-over-month, the second month of contraction, and are up only 0.3% year-over-year. When we adjust for inflation, January sales were down 0.6% MoM. The YoY change was a fractional 0.1% growth. Real sales are down 0.9% from their all-time high in November.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 2/20/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.2, unchanged from last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place slipped to 2.5 from last week's 3.2 (a downward revision from 3.3).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 2/14/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.2, unchanged from last week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place slipped to 3.3 from last weeks 4.2. Last weekend, ECRI posted a new publicly available commentary on the companys website: Failure to Launch. The brief text concludes with this remark: It is now quite clear that the economy is decelerating, not accelerating, with growth in ECRIs Weekly Coincident Index ... falling rapidly.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 2/7/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.2, down from last weeks downward revision from 133.7. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place slipped to 4.2 from last weeks 4.3.

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 2/3/14
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1824.35. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1782.59. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poors latest earnings spreadsheet.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/31/14
The December month-over-month Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments came in at a disappointing -0.21% (-0.2% rounded to one decimal). The year-over-year change is -2.47% (rounded to -2.5%). However, the YoY metric is radically skewed by the December 2012 end-of-year tax-planning strategy whereby income was captured in 2012 to avoided expected tax increases.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/31/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.8, unchanged at one decimal place from last weeks downward revision from 133.9. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) at one decimal place rose to 4.3, up from last weeks 4.2.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/24/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.9, down from last weeks 134.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place rose to 4.2, up from last weeks 3.5.

In the Spirit of Martin Luther King: Reflections on Income Inequality
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/22/14
Last night my wife and I were looking for something to stream on Netflix, and I remembered that The Butler was available on Red Box (which has a vending machine about a 90-second walk from our residence).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/17/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.5, up from last weeks 133.4 (an upward revision from 133.0). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place rose to 3.7, up from last weeks 2.5.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/17/14
With yesterdays release of Decembers CPI, we can now calculate Real Retail Sales for December. Month-over-month real sales came in at -0.07% (-0.1% rounded to one decimal). This indicator is now fractionally off its all-time high set the previous month. Although real December sales were a bit disappointing, this indicator rose 3.57% year-over-year, and it was positive for nine of the 12 months.

Demographic Trends in the 50-and-Older Work Force
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/13/14
In my earlier update on demographic trends in employment, I included a chart illustrating the growth (or shrinkage) in six age cohorts since the turn of the century. In this commentary well zoom in on the age 50 and older Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/10/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.0, up from last weeks 133.0. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place came in at 2.5, up from last weeks 1.9.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Today's Strange Nonfarm Payrolls in Context
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/10/14
The January Employment Report gives us a look at the December Nonfarm Employment along with extensive revisions back to January 2009. The big stunner today was the meager 74K new jobs in December against expectations of around 196K. This sucker punch from the Establishment Data was accompanied by the equally stunning news that the unemployment rate declined from 7.0-6.7%. The two numbers, of course, are from two completely different surveys - the jobs number from the Establishment Survey of business and government and the unemployment rate from the Household Survey of the general population.

Market Valuation Overview: Yet More Expensive
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/6/14
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I update during the first days of the month.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/3/14
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.9, up from last weeks 131.9. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place came in at 1.8, unchanged from last week.

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 1/2/14
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1807.78. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1848.36.

NYSE Margin Debt Is Fractionally Off Its Real All-Time High
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 12/30/13
The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Lets examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 12/27/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.9, up from last weeks 130.9. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, slipped to 1.9, down from 2.1 last week.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 12/13/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.4, down from last weeks 132.7 (adjusted from 132.8). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, slipped to 2.8, down from 2.9 last week.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 12/6/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.8, up from last weeks 132.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, rose to 2.9, up from 2.6 last week.

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 12/2/13
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1783.54. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1805.81. For the earnings, see the table created from Standard & Poors latest earnings spreadsheet.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/22/13
The underlying sales data were stronger than expected, and the disinflationary October headline CPI boosted the number higher. in light of the general pessimism over the government shutdown and congressional face-off on debt ceiling, the October numbers are indeed surprising.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/22/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.2, up from last weeks 131.0 (revised from 131.1). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, rose to 2.4, up from 2.2 last week.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/15/13
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/8/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.0, down from last weeks 131.4 (revised from 131.5). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, rose to 1.8, up from 1.7 last week.

Mortgage REITs: Last Chance to Exit?
by Keith Jurow of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/4/13
An online advertisement raises the following question often asked by your clients: Can you find me more income? In a nutshell, that is the dilemma facing high net worth investors.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/1/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.5, up from last weeks 131.1. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, dropped to 1.7, down from 2.0 last week.

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 11/1/13
ere is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1720.03.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 10/25/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.1, up from last weeks 130.3 (revised from 130.4). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, dropped to 2.0, down from 2.7 (a downward revision from 2.8).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 10/18/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.4, down from last weeks 130.3 (revised from 130.4). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, dropped to 2.8, down from 3.6 (a downward revision from 3.9).

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 10/4/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.1, down from last weeks 132.9. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, remains unchanged at 4.8% (with last weeks number revised downward from 4.9).

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 10/1/13
Click to viewHere is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1687.17. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1681.55. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poors latest earnings spreadsheet.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 9/27/13
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.9, up from last weeks 132.3 (revised down from 132.4). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 4.9% from last weeks 4.5%.
Results 51–100 of 292 found.