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Pacific Basin Market Overview October 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
The Japanese equity market ended the month of October almost unchanged. Concerns about Europes sovereign debt crisis and a slowdown in the global economy initially sent the index sliding to a new year-to-date low at the outset. Subsequently, the Japanese stock market rebounded along with a steady retreat from the excessive investor pessimism surrounding overseas economic conditions. Positive U.S. economic indicators, including unexpectedly strong employment figures, housing data and solid GDP growth, boosted market confidence.
Style Investing Revisited: A Disciplined Approach Means More Than Adhering to a Style Universe
by Team of The Royce Funds,
Over time much has been written about style investinggrowth versus valuewithin the small-cap universe. In fact, investors often rely on style indexes such as the Russell 2000 Value Index and Russell 2000 Growth Index as proxies for a particular style and/or performance pattern, such as moving to value in anticipation of a bear market or growth in expectation of a bull. While this is certainly easy and convenient, especially for performance comparisons, style indexes are often more about a particular type of company or narrow set of criteria as opposed to a specific investment approach.
Alternative Investments in Focus
by Team of American Century Investments,
We recently conducted a survey of financial professionals to better understand their view and use of alternative investments. Alternative investments are defined as those outside the traditional big three of cash, bonds, and stocks. These alternatives include commodities, real estate, and inflation-linked securities, among many others. Alternatives have surged in popularity in recent years, as investors and their advisors seek out new and potentially more effective ways to diversify and reduce risk in traditional balanced stock, bond, and cash portfolios.
'Collapse of Confidence': The European Crisis Grows
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
Financial markets have shown no sign of calming down following Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's announcement on Tuesday that he would resign once a series of austerity measures are passed by the Italian parliament. The big risk for Italy-and for the world financial system-is that it falls over the cliff before efforts to right the ship can be worked out, experts at Wharton say. In this special report, we offer insights on the latest developments in Italy, the reasons why the European debt crisis has become so acute, and what it would take to bring about a possible recovery.
Checking the Boxes
We have argued recently that the current rally is largely dependent on US economic performance, since Europe's crisis is not going to be solved anytime soon. On that basis, Friday's reports of mixed and lacklustre data for US employment may not seem overly confidence-boosting. The household survey showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down from 9.1% to a six-month low of 9.0% in October; but the establishment survey disappointed, showing total nonfarm payrolls grew +80K last month Beyond these headline figures, however, we found the report supportive of our major current themes.
Municipal Market Transparency Report: October 2011
by Team of BondDesk Group,
The big muni news last month was that Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania, filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. But the incident didnt have much impact on the retail markets. In fact, trading activity in October recovered from the ultra low levels of August and September, though it was still a relatively quiet month. Mutual funds had a solid October, receiving $1.8B in net inflows according to the Investment Company Institute.
Corporate Market Transparency Report: October 2011
by Team of BondDesk Group,
October was the stock market's best month in nearly a decade. As expected, the strong equity rally caused retail corporate bond yields to fall as concerns about credit risk receded. Bonds rated single A experienced the biggest decrease in yields, though yields for triple B bonds remained largely unchanged, providing continued opportunity for investors willing to own lower rated investment grade bonds. The buy/sell ratio increased to 1.9 in October, a modest increase over the 1.8 ratio in September but a material increase over the historical norm of 1.4.
Households Continue to Reduce Debt and Embrace Frugality
by Team of American Century Investments,
Many things are different about the current economic recovery compared with past. One of the most important differences is the lack of any meaningful resurgence in consumer spending. Households continue to reduce their debt levels, which can be good for our long-term economic outlook. But in the near term, deleveraging means consumers cannot play the same role they have of driving strong economic growth by a surge in spending that satisfies their deferred consumption during the downturn. Well take a look at how households and consumers are faring in their efforts to reduce debt.
Dressing Up a Default for Halloween
by Team of BondWave Advisors,
Politicians in Europe spent October trying to juggle three balls: 1) avoiding an unavoidable Greek default, 2) keeping a Greek default from cascading into Italy and Spain, and 3) shoring up the European banks before a Greek default. BondWave Advisors discuss the details of the Greek situation in our November Fixed Income Report and provide additional insight into the US Treasury, Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets.
Third Quarter Letter
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
We fully expect markets to remain manic and co-dependent. The market cant live without Ben, so a few weeks of weak data and no intervention and well have a selloff. Likewise, as soon as rumors of the next hundred billion dollar intervention surface, traders wont be able to buy equities quickly enough. The situation in Europe is a mirror image. Thankfully, in a world of 20,000+ individual securities there are always pockets of opportunity. We must be prepared for our individual ideas to trade with the market for periods of time, but over the long-haul good things happen to cheap stocks.
Cain vs. Romney
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
Herman Cain has definitely surged inthe polls, and he has taken the lead in many of them. As shown below,however,people are still putting their money on Romney to win the GOP nomination for President. Over atIntrade.com, the contract for Romney to win the GOP nomination puts the odds at 69.5%, while the contract for Cain puts his odds at only 6.3%. At its peak, Cain's Intrade odds to win were just over 10%, and they havepulled backover the past few weeks. Romney's odds to win keep on creeping higher.
The Euro Zone of Denial Hits the Wall
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
The eurozones efforts to fence in Greeces debt problems have consistently lagged events. Last weeks summit addressed many key issues, but skeptics say potential pitfalls still lie ahead. The agreement also falls short of confronting longer-term root issues-underlying trade imbalances and an ultimate backstop role for the ECB. Another big worry: Creditors could lose all confidence in Europes ability to fix these problems, leading to a collapse in Europes banking system and other parts of the global economy. This commentary and video interview examines barriers to long-term solutions.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
October is a month that has provided much drama in the stock market through the years and this year is no exception. The S&P 500 was up over 11%, which is the second best October in history, and ended a five month losing streak. The S&P 500 was up 17.1% from October 3rdthrough October 28th. Those 19 days were better than 9 of the last 11 calendaryears. Do you see why market timing is virtually impossible?
Will the U.S. and Europe Rise Again -- or Sink Together?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
In today's highly interconnected global economy, problems in one country often lead to difficulties in another. The United States and Europe are experiencing that reality up close as leaders try to deal with debt problems, investment-shy business sectors and seemingly intractable unemployment. At a recent presentation attended by Wharton board members, professors Franklin Allen, Richard Marston and Kent Smetters warned that a true recovery for either region will take time, and that conditions could get worse before they get better.
Tiedemann Wealth Management 3 Qtr Market Commentary
by Team of Tiedemann Wealth Management,
Despite the ongoing debt crisis in Europe the news is not as grim for investors as it may seem. We believe that markets have more than discounted the risk of European recession as fallout from this crisis, which an inept political system has exacerbated. It marks the first time in many years that markets are questioning political leadership in developed world nations something they normally only consider when investing in emerging markets. We do not believe that the G-20 leaders will allow a major counterparty bank to fail, despite their apparent lack of coordination over the past few months.
Is It Time for a Trading Tax?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
To its advocates, the idea is a no-brainer: Charge a tiny tax on each stock, bond or derivative trade to raise badly needed revenue, discourage dangerous short-term speculation and make Wall Street help clean up its own mess. But critics of the financial transaction tax concept say that it would actually make the financial markets less efficient, hurting ordinary investors by raising costs. Wharton faculty and investment experts weigh in.
Third Quarter Investment Commentary
by Team of Litman Gregory,
Since 2008, we have been in a period where macroeconomic forces are particularly influential and must inform our portfolio strategy. This quarter's developments in which we saw heightened concerns about a global economic slowdown, political gridlock, and serious concerns about shorter-term European and longer-term U.S. debt problems are consistent with the risk scenarios we've been discussing the past several years.
Outlining the U.S. Economys Growth Dichotomy
by Team of American Century Investments,
David MacEwen describes the growth dichotomy that has developed during the recovery from the Great Recession, and how its restricted the recovery, softened consumer sentiment, influenced the fixed income teams macroeconomic outlook, and shaped some of the teams sector outlooks. One of the key characteristics of the subpar, slow-growth recovery we have experienced since the Great Recession has been the clear divide between the recovery rates of the business and consumer sectors. Businesses have bounced back faster and stronger than the U.S. consumer who buys their goods and services.
Asia Pacific Real Estate Securities
Asia Pacific real estate securities declined sharply in the third quarter, a negative and volatile period for stocks broadly. Markets were roiled by reduced global growth expectations and intensified European sovereign debt concerns. Economic growth throughout most of Asia Pacific remains relatively strong, driven in large part by demand from China. The regions property markets have encountered policy headwinds, but the outlook for slower global growth has eased inflationary concerns.
Emerging Markets Real Estate
Emerging market real estate stocks were hit hard in the risk-averse environment that defined the third quarter. The asset class underperformed its developed-market counterpart, which also had a double-digit decline amid slowing global growth and concerns regarding Europes unresolved sovereign debt crisis. Slowing global growth is taking some pressure off emerging markets in terms of inflation containment. A trend of policy easing appears to be underway. This could result in improved performance for recently problematic sectors. We have been incrementally adding to such sectors.
Global Equity OutlookFourth Quarter 2011
by Team of American Century Investments,
In this edition of Weekly Market Update, presents the teams outlook for global equity markets, based on the latest research and discussions with companies from industries and countries across the economy and the globe. The team focuses on individual security selection, building portfolios from the bottom up, rather than making top-down judgments about the economy. In their view, economic trends matter to the extent that they relate to corporate earnings power. As a result, the outlook focuses on corporate earnings and other areas they deem important to successful global equity investing.
European Real Estate
European real estate securities fell sharply in the risk-averse environment that defined the third quarter. The region underperformed North America and Asia Pacific, which also had double-digit declines amid slowing global growth and concerns regarding Europes unresolved sovereign debt problem. We believe the European financial system is in need of substantial equity recapitalization. Until banks are able to achieve this, corporate financing in Europe, combined with austerity measures introduced by a variety of governments, is likely to remain restrictive.
Global Real Estate
We would like to share with you our review and outlook for the global real estate securities market as of September 30, 2011. The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Real Estate Index had a total return of 17.4% for the quarter (net of dividend withholding taxes) in U.S. dollars, and 12.7% for the year to date. Global real estate securities fell sharply in the third quarter, along with equities broadly, as risk factors escalated. All major regions had double-digit declines amid slowing growth in the U.S. and China and intensified concerns regarding Europes sovereign debt problem.
U.S. Real Estate Securities
We would like to share with you our review and outlook for the U.S. real estate securities market as of September 30, 2011. The FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index had a total return of 14.7% for the quarter, compared with a 13.9% return for the S&P 500 Index. Year to date, the indexes had total returns of 6.0% and 8.7%, respectively. From a sector perspective, we believe apartment REITs will continue to benefit from positive market fundamentals despite a weak job market. We remain underweight in office REITs, but continue to see attractive opportunities in urban markets.
International Real Estate
We would like to share with you our review and outlook for the international real estate securities markets as of September 30, 2011. International real estate securities fell sharply in the third quarter, along with equities broadly, as risk factors escalated. All major regions had double-digit declines amid slowing growth in the U.S. and China and intensified concerns regarding Europes sovereign debt problem.
Global Infrastructure
Global infrastructure stocks are in a position to perform well in the current economic environment as historically, their cash flows have been relatively resilient in the face of slowing economic growth. On a regional basis, we remain overweight the U.S. and underweight Europe, given the high degree of uncertainty regarding a solution to sovereign debt issues and the long-term impact of austerity on the regions growth outlook. Our Asia Pacific outlook is mixed: our investments in Japan remain defensive, and we are cautious on Australia, given the potential impact of a slowdown in China.
Pacific Basin Market Overview September 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Europes inability to find a solution for its current fiscal problems and the weakening macroeconomic outlook sent equity markets into a downward spiral during the July-September quarter. In Asia, concerns about the risk of a hard landing in China resurfaced as well. All country and regional indices declined, with the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan and the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index declining 16.35% and 21.28%, respectively, for the quarter. In the short term, the rush to raise cash could lead to further declines in markets
Middle East/Africa: Economic Review September 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
The MENA region continues to grapple with instability in the aftermath of the Arab Spring uprisings. The draining of public finances, elevated levels of inflation and high rates of unemployment seem to paint an unfavorable picture for the region in the short term. According to the IMF World Economic Outlook report, inflation in the region is expected to average around 7 percent in 2011 and 10 percent in 2012. In addition, the report noted the adverse impact of weaker growth in the United States and Europe on commodity prices, foreign investments and economic activity.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review September 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
After battling inflation for over a year, many emerging Asia Pacific economies are now facing challenges over stimulating growth. A year of persistent monetary tightening in emerging Asia Pacific has unfortunately coincided with slowing growth prospects in the developed world. The U.S. and the European Union are the largest trading partners for many export-dependent emerging Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan and even China. With economic growth slowing in the U.S. and the European Union, many emerging Asian nations are rightly worried about their export prospects.
Global Overview: October 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
Global financial markets have partly recovered from Septembers extensive price declines, helped by hopes of stability in the Euro-zone and moderately better economic data from major countries, including the U.S. Volatility in the currency markets has also eased somewhat after last months steep fall in international currencies against the U.S. dollar. Commodity prices have seen similar trends as well, though concerns about global demand persist. Monetary policy in major economies has seen significant shifts over the last month, as central banks have lowered their economic outlook.
Emerging Europe: Economic Review September 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
A leading economic sentiment indicator for the Central and Eastern European region recorded its lowest reading in more than two and a half years amid an uncertain outlook for the region and the continuing debt crisis in the Euro-zone, according to a news report published in Bloomberg. Europes failure to find a way out of the debt crisis amid a slowing global economy has clouded the outlook for the whole Eastern European region, which is dependent on exports for much of its growth. Hungary recorded the biggest fall in economic expectations, then Poland, according to the Bloomberg report.
Developed Europe: Economic Review September 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
With the world anxiously watching, Developed Europe battled against its sovereign debt problems on several fronts all through September. Investors became increasingly concerned as the month progressed because Euro-zone leaders delayed making a decision on paying Greece the next installment of its bailout package, despite the beleaguered country declaring that it would run out of money by mid-October without the aid tranche. News reports from the region indicated that the installment was being delayed to pressure Greece into speeding up crucial structural reforms.
Fixed Income Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
We continue to favor short-term high yield securities.While the high yield market has generally been under pressure due to fears of lower economic growth, lower gross domestic product growth does not necessarily translate into weaker credit fundamentals. In light of all the uncertainty in the market, we have generally reduced our exposure to convertible bonds and have continued to favor bonds with high coupons that we think are likely to be refinanced before maturity.In addition we are keeping some cash on the sidelines so that we are in a good position to buy as future opportunities arise.
Equity Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
During the third quarter, the stock market plunged as investors hopes for a sustained U.S. economic recovery dissipated and fears of a world-wide economic slowdown and possible U.S. double-dip recession increased. The U.S. faces several major structural headwinds including a moribund housing sector, high unemployment, bank credit restraint, and a growing and worrisome federal debt. Underlying these and other problems is the depressing effect of the end of the debt super cycle.
Americas: Economic Review September 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
Financial markets faced significant volatility as the global economic outlook weakened and concerns about the European crisis worsened. Markets in the Americas region were also affected by the erosion in investor confidence, though the developed markets in the region fared relatively better. Latin American currencies saw steep falls against the U.S. dollar, as the weaker economic outlook is expected to force the central banks to cut interest rates in the future, potentially reducing the relative attractiveness of these markets to global investors.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economic Review September 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific nations continued to face headwinds to growth in September. With factory output across the world slowing down to a trickle, major developed Asia Pacific economies ranging from Japan to New Zealand started witnessing pressure on their economic output. As exports still act as the backbone for many of Asias developed countries, a global decline in manufacturing is causing concerns. A slowdown in the U.S. and Europe also cast a shadow on the economic prospects for Asian nations.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Low interest rates have certainly hurt savers, even more so those who live on a fixed income. The current bubble in bonds will eventually pop, and many people will be surprised. But this ProVise Bullet is not about the risk in bonds today. Its more about the fact there is some good news as it relates to interest rates. First, mortgage rates are near an all-time low. A 30 year mortgage loan is available at an interest rate slightly above 4% and 15 year mortgage loans have been quoted at just a little under 3.57%. Even the IRS is getting into the act.
Our Fixed Income Macro OutlookFourth Quarter 2011
by Team of American Century Investments,
Our economic outlook has become a bit more defensive and cautious, compared with earlier this year. After improvement last year, economic conditions have slowed. In particular, the financial sector has come under renewed pressure from the European sovereign debt crisis and continued housing market stagnation. It remains to be seen if this slowing is transitory or more significant. Both the consumer and business sectors have experienced slowing. But a subpar recovery with headwinds remains our projected most-likely scenario, not a recession.
The Great Deleveraging: Will Consumer Spending Ever Recover?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
U.S. households are a critical contributor to economic health. But the financial downturn of recent years has hit consumers hard, and they are more hesitant than ever to spend, borrow or seek access to credit. Although a more debt-conscious outlook has positive implications for the individual, experts say the widespread deleveraging is making it difficult for the business sector and the economy as a whole to get back on its feet.
Pointing Fingers: Can Europe and the U.S. Work Together to Solve the Financial Crisis?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
Even as U.S. officials and investors watch Europe struggle to shore up its financial system and avert another shock to the global economy, signs of a subtle transatlantic "blame game" have surfaced. Experts from Wharton and elsewhere note that although there are no immediate answers to the mounting crisis -- and its impact on capital markets in the U.S. -- it's clear that any finger pointing needs to be replaced by a sense of urgency and mutual cooperation before solutions can be found.
Quarterly Review and Outlook
Negative economic growth will probably be registered in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2011, and in subsequent quarters in 2012. Though partially caused by monetary and fiscal actions and excessive indebtedness, this contraction has been further aggravated by three current cyclical developments: a) declining productivity, b) elevated inventory investment, and c) contracting real wage income.
Setven Jobs - RIP
by Team of Dana Investment Advisors,
Just when it appears the free trade bills with South Korea, Columbia and Panama are about to be passed, South Koreans are protesting in the street to stop it. Before the worldwide economic crisis they were all for it. Now they feel their economy (exports) will be hurt by it. In this economic crisis it is every country for themself. There is legislation currently in Congress to impose a tariff on Chinese imports mainly because they will not allow their currency to float to levels that would be fairer to their trading partners - mainly us. Bad idea.
The Hunt for (Sustainable) Yield
by Team of Emerald Asset Advisors,
In any low-rate environment, it is easy to be seduced by any investment that can deliver high yields. But to achieve a consistent total return, you need to carefully weigh the risks and focus on investments that can deliver attractive yields that are sustainable, while also providing the potential for higher income in the future. Our answer thus far has been a combination of sources. Given the current miniscule yield environment, we expect these higher-quality asset classes to move the income-generation meter at least a little for client portfolios without exposing them to inordinate risk.
The Risk of Recession and the Variable of Adjustment
by Team of Knowledge Leaders Capital,
Looking solely at financial markets, it seems impossible to avoid the conclusion that we are heading straight into a global recession: most major equity markets have entered bear territory and registered new 52-week lows, commodity prices are plunging (see our Indicator of Economic Sensitive Prices on p. 2), spreads are widening everywhere, all currencies except for the US$ and Yen are feeling weak at the knees, etc... As one client put it to us, in September there was simply ?nowhere to hide; and such market dislocations are typically a harbinger of bad economic news.
Global Investment Outlook: October 2011
Global growth momentum continues to decline but is worst in Europe. Solvency of national governments and now banks is creating fears of a crisis. Coordinated policy action is key to stemming adverse market reaction. Although economic data has continued to demonstrate slower business activity, this is most obvious within Europe which has suffered from fiscal contraction as well as diminishing export demand from the emerging world. Unemployment levels remain elevated, and the reluctance to create new jobs is proving the Achilles heel of policymakers efforts to kick start private sector demand.
Taxes, Income and Fairness
by Team of American Century Investments,
From a recent address by President Obama, it is clear that it wont just be the economy that will be a key issue in next years presidential election campaign. In addition, the question of fairness regarding taxationespecially among the wealthy and highest earning Americans who he believes ought to pay a greater amount of taxeswill be a major topic of debate. His speech has sparked a broad debate over who pays federal taxes in America and whether increasing tax rates on the highest earners is a wise move to both address our massive budget deficits and stimulate the economy.
Worry and Volatility Continue in September
by Team of BondWave Advisors,
September was a continuation of the fear and anxiety that plagued August. Worries about a global slowdown and the fiscal situation in Europe drove a volatile month. Fears of a double-dip recession have been growing as economic data has moderated. These fears were stoked after the September FOMC meeting when the Fed downgraded the state of the economy by announcing a new plan intended to stimulate growth. The IMF also adjusted its global outlook down, revising its estimate for global growth in 2011 and 2012 to 4% from 4.3% Estimates for the US were revised from 2.5% to 1.5%.
European Banks Under Pressure
by Team of American Century Investments,
On the surface, the European banking sectors status in the fixed-income markets should be on the upswing. The Basel III Accord strengthened capital requirements for banks and also set stricter guidelines for liquidity and debt. Helping reduce the risk profile of the banking sector, and this would normally be attractive to fixed-income investors. However, bond investors have had the opposite reaction, shunning the bonds of European banks in recent months. The gap between bank bonds and government bonds recently rose to levels not seen since the height of the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Fair -- or Unbalanced? Decoding the Buffett Rule Debate
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
Underlying the fairness debate over taxes is a practical issue: Can the federal government get its fiscal house in order without raising taxes on someone? While many Republicans prefer spending cuts and oppose any tax increases, many economists think tax hikes must play some role. "It's clear to me that both spending and taxes have to be adjusted as part of a grand compromise," notes Wharton finance professor Richard Marston. "Bush's tax cuts created too large a hole in revenues," he adds, referring to the cuts in 2001 and 2003 under President George W. Bush.
Economic Recovery Starts with Bank of America
by Team of Institutional Risk Analyst,
In this issue we provide a "how to" roadmap for the restructuring of Bank of America (BAC), this in response to a number of yowls of protest, spurts of indignation and outright do-not-knows. For those who've not done so, please read "A not so fictional FSOC memo for Bank of America" where we introduced the home audience to the concept of a parent-only view of BAC and other bank holding companies ("BHCs"). The restructuring of BAC creates a huge positive for credit creation in the US housing sector, the necessary condition for an economic recovery.
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